J.T. Miller -- Low Probability of a 7 or 8 Year Deal

[Gurn]

1 hour ago, JM_ said:

the argument that Miller will eventually decline, so don't sign him is a bit funny to me.

The argument is - people don't want to pay Miller more than $8 per for years of suckage.

The argument you posit above would mean nobody gets signed-ever.

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, gurn said:

The argument is - people don't want to pay Miller more than $8 per for years of suckage.

The argument you posit above would mean nobody gets signed-ever.

its all speculation though about "suckage" and when that may or may not happen. I see much more risk in reducing our C depth for magic beans and hope we not only regain the talent but exceed it in 2-3 years. Oh and expect Bo to stick around for it. Too risky for me when we have a good core now. 

[Attila Umbrus]

On 4/27/2022 at 12:18 PM, -DLC- said:

He's been provided opportunity to step into that role here, that matters.

 

With other teams he may take be forced into a lesser role and to take a back seat. 

 

Surely he and his agent are smart enough to consider that, as well as who he'll be playing beside here and how they've accepted him as a big voice. Guys who he's mentored/ing and who accept him as a leader in the room...he's the backbone because the supporting cast work alongside him in that role. Other teams have established rooms and guys who'd have to make room for Miller's big personality. Self delusion is thinking we know what he and/or his agent think. We don't. But I'm sure it's a bigger picture than just $$$ because Miller's not Loui. He likely won't settle for getting paid to slide along in the background and collect a paycheque, he just isn't showing to be that kind of personality. He's a fierce competitor and I believe he likely understands that here he IS considered the things you've listed but that's not just a given elsewhere.

Well said Deb, I think Miller has stated several times already this year that he appreciates the opportunity given to him by the team to be a leader and a top line player. They gave him that opportunity when New York and Tampa both did not. Loyalty does matter somewhat in this circumstance I think.

[Gurn]

23 minutes ago, JM_ said:

its all speculation though about "suckage" and when that may or may not happen. I see much more risk in reducing our C depth for magic beans and hope we not only regain the talent but exceed it in 2-3 years. Oh and expect Bo to stick around for it. Too risky for me when we have a good core now. 

And it is speculation that the players traded for don't provide value.

[Honky Cat]

6 hours ago, aGENT said:

If we're able to sign him to a 5 year deal, under $10m, I'd be ecstatic. Doubt that's realistic though.

Should be interesting.

Seems like there's a mutual admiration between the hockey club and JTM.

[JM_]

37 minutes ago, gurn said:

And it is speculation that the players traded for don't provide value.

known quantity vs unknown. 

 

Whats the chance a 20 something pick, Chytil or some guy in the KHL right now is as productive as Miller?

[Gurn]

3 minutes ago, JM_ said:

known quantity vs unknown. 

 

Whats the chance a 20 something pick, Chytil or some guy in the KHL right now is as productive as Miller?

Depends on who they pick - also which players they trade for.

known quantity?- Well we know Miller is a pouter, and will stop to get angry, before trying to back check; and we know he will give away the puck about 3-4 times a game.

We also know the defense is the spot that needs the most help, and that the team has the most depth on the forward lines. So it is reasonable to foresee a forward or two or even 3 getting moved to fix the issue with the defense.

Who that player/s is remains to be seen.

 

A player does not have to be a producer to be a good player.

Tanev was not a point producer, but was a valued member of the team.

 

 

 

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, gurn said:

Depends on who they pick - also which players they trade for.

known quantity?- Well we know Miller is a pouter, and will stop to get angry, before trying to back check; and we know he will give away the puck about 3-4 times a game.

We also know the defense is the spot that needs the most help, and that the team has the most depth on the forward lines. So it is reasonable to foresee a forward or two or even 3 getting moved to fix the issue with the defense.

Who that player/s is remains to be seen.

 

A player does not have to be a producer to be a good player.

Tanev was not a point producer, but was a valued member of the team.

 

 

 

sure, pouted his way to a 98 point season. 

 

We don't need to agree, I see the 'step back' plan as a bit of a minefield but you don't have to. 

[Gurn]

19 minutes ago, JM_ said:

sure, pouted his way to a 98 point season. 

So we agree he pouted and gives away the puck a lot, and has 98 points so far.

That, plus his age, plus the teams "window"  means ;imo no more than $8 mill for, no more than 5 years.

 

" I see the 'step back' plan as a bit of a minefield but you don't have to."

 

 

 Why does trading Miller- or any player for that matter have to be a "step back"?

Edited April 29, 2022 by gurn

[tas]

1 minute ago, gurn said:

So we agree he pouted and gives away the puck a lot, and has 98 points so far.

That, plus his age, plus the teams "window"  means ;imo no more than $8 mill for, no more than 5 years.

petey pouted 10x more than miller did. what kind of cap are you putting on his next contract?

[Gurn]

7 minutes ago, tas said:

petey pouted 10x more than miller did. what kind of cap are you putting on his next contract?

Really, 10 times? How many times did he stop to play with the dog before he began back checking?

E.P has a couple of years to earn his next deal. 

By the end of next season we should have a very good idea as to whether Petey is a bona fide super star or "merely" a point per game dude.

I'm leaning to him being a full fledged superstar, 110 points +. Likely he, and Quinn end up being max cap guys.

[tas]

14 minutes ago, gurn said:

Really, 10 times? How many times did he stop to play with the dog before he began back checking?

E.P has a couple of years to earn his next deal. 

By the end of next season we should have a very good idea as to whether Petey is a bona fide super star or "merely" a point per game dude.

I'm leaning to him being a full fledged superstar, 110 points +. Likely he, and Quinn end up being max cap guys.

his body language for the first half of the season was embarrassing. absolutely no compete. 

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

3 minutes ago, tas said:

his body language for the first half of the season was embarrassing. absolutely no compete. 

There was definitely something wrong. Whether physical or mental/emotional or some combination of both. Lots of possibilities. But he just wasn’t himself. 

[Mustard Tiger]

43 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

There was definitely something wrong. Whether physical or mental/emotional or some combination of both. Lots of possibilities. But he just wasn’t himself. 

Having to deal with peak covid, Our media and having green try to waste your prime years... Yeah i'd show a little body language as well

[Coconuts]

9 hours ago, mikeyman109 said:

I think the same risk applies to adding pieces a team is willing to offer in trade for Miller as what he could regress to. Just because they are NHL ready prospects doesnt mean they become better players than what we have currently. Miller could go on to have 4 or 5 100 point seasons somewhere else.

Certainly, but there's risk any way you spin it. Keep Miller, trade Miller. Hell, acquiring him in the first place was a calculated risk. That's the nature of professional sports. 

 

9 hours ago, HKSR said:

Miller's camp asks for $60M

Canucks go with $50M

 

Settles at $55M.  Right around the ballpark in my original post.

 

$55M over 6 years is $9.2M.

Yeah, I'm not a fan of that. He's earned it but I'm not sold on him being worth it over the duration of such a contract. 

[Coconuts]

2 hours ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

There was definitely something wrong. Whether physical or mental/emotional or some combination of both. Lots of possibilities. But he just wasn’t himself. 

He also entered the season being twenty two years old with top line expectations on him, as opposed to being a twenty eight year old player who's been around the block more. 

[wai_lai416]

7 hours ago, IBatch said:

If EP does that then we are going to be a great team the next two seasons. 

yes we are going to be great for next 2 seasons until we need to re-sign him.. even if EP have a monster season the next 2 and we keep miller.. i don't see this team as a cup contender.. a playoff spot for sure but that's about it.

[DSVII]

7 hours ago, JM_ said:

the argument that Miller will eventually decline, so don't sign him is a bit funny to me. You only get so many elite years out of a player no matter who they are, but if you don't keep them you won't get to have those productive years. 

 

It seems to come down to who buys in to the 'step back to go forward' position or the win with this core position. I see much more risk in the 'step back' thing but others don't. I suspect JR/PA will do all they can to keep Miller but I guess we'll find out. 

The issue isn't his decline. But how many years of his contract before his contribution declines below his cap hit value and you are left holding the bag for the remainder of the contract. Ala Loui

 

So for sure. Try and sign him but if the numbers don't work. Free up the cap space to deploy on another asset that lines up with the competing window of the young guns.

[mikeyman109]

11 hours ago, Coconuts said:

Certainly, but there's risk any way you spin it. Keep Miller, trade Miller. Hell, acquiring him in the first place was a calculated risk. That's the nature of professional sports. 

 

Yeah, I'm not a fan of that. He's earned it but I'm not sold on him being worth it over the duration of such a contract. 

I agree there is risk but the bird in the hand ...

[BPA]

Let’s just say that the overall $$ agreed upon is $55M.

 

What would you rather have the salary look like?

 

$9.15M x 6yr

$7.85M x 7yr

$6.875M x 8yr

 

Deal structured to possible buyout the later years.

 

I would go with the latter option.  Gives cap space now.  Worry about the future later.  BUT a deal like that seems silly given how much Hertl got ($8M x 8yr).