JT Miller -- Where do you think he will end up?

[IBatch]

19 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Waiting until the next TDL runs the added risk that JT’s production slides or he is injured. Obviously there is a bottom line ask that has to be offered. If the decision is to move him then the Canucks should do it if all is equal. Get the new assets into the mix sooner than later. Especially true if a RD is part of the deal. 

This is true.  But it doesn't happen often.  Usually when a UFA is on the block he gets sat close to the TDL.   On that though it did happen to us with Markstrom lol.   Not that it mattered any ... Covid and the expansion draft looming ...

[IBatch]

Reality is there are not that many teams that can afford JT Millers next deal that are contenders right now.   There are a lot that could use him as a re-tool with aging stars or like us - up and coming teams - and that's likely where he does sign.   If it comes to pure money then he goes to a crap team with cap space galore as a piece in place during their rebuild which is either on the way or coming soon.    48-55 seems about right as far as total money goes.    Clauses will lower the cap hit somewhat, as will going to a low tax team.    To me it's a Zib deal plus a tiny bit for cap going up a little later on in his deal - minus one or maybe two years of term all done in bonus money for him meaning it's buyout proof and he gets his money even if he falls off a cliff and his team needs to buy him out...9.25 x 5 OR 8.675 x 6.     Value of money early also makes it better for the player.   Those are the deals our team could stomach.   Maybe some other sucker will pay more - but feel he wants to stay and will leave some dollars on the table. 

[Boudrias]

39 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Reality is there are not that many teams that can afford JT Millers next deal that are contenders right now.   There are a lot that could use him as a re-tool with aging stars or like us - up and coming teams - and that's likely where he does sign.   If it comes to pure money then he goes to a crap team with cap space galore as a piece in place during their rebuild which is either on the way or coming soon.    48-55 seems about right as far as total money goes.    Clauses will lower the cap hit somewhat, as will going to a low tax team.    To me it's a Zib deal plus a tiny bit for cap going up a little later on in his deal - minus one or maybe two years of term all done in bonus money for him meaning it's buyout proof and he gets his money even if he falls off a cliff and his team needs to buy him out...9.25 x 5 OR 8.675 x 6.     Value of money early also makes it better for the player.   Those are the deals our team could stomach.   Maybe some other sucker will pay more - but feel he wants to stay and will leave some dollars on the table. 

Also a call on where the CAP will be in 3-5 years. A gamble to a degree with the world turned upside down.

[Russ]

If Colorado doesn't win and Kadri chases money then my bet is on the Avs pushing for Miller to be the 2C.  Can't see them not pushing all their chips in until Macs deal has to be redone

Edited May 5, 2022 by Russ

[kloubek]

Management is clear if he wants too much he's gone. And since the thread suggests a scenario where he's asking for too much, Vancouver shouldn't even be on the list.

 

A lot depends on what teams can move out in terms of salary - either in a trade in return to us, or elsewhere. For example: I am sure Toronto would love to have Miller, but they already have 32m+ invested in their top 3 players. Adding a 4th high paid player would only exasperate their issues. 

 

As mentioned in the thread already, a lot will also depend on where the teams feel they are in their league position. A team like Boston is having difficulty competing offensively in the East so they'd probably love him, but if they get ousted in the 1st round, are they going to want to keep competing or go on a rebuild or mini-rebuild?

It's just too early to say and so many variables depending on where he might go.

[stawns]

42 minutes ago, Muttley said:

Therein lies the problem with a thread that is entirely based on the assumption said player is going to ask for the world. Part of the reason I said I wouldn't come back here.

Oops. Sorry...

Which scenario is more common?

 

A -  UFA player has a chance at a career contract but leaves millions on the table to play for his current team

 

Or

 

B- UFA player has a chance at a career contract and chases the money for every penny?

 

Edited May 5, 2022 by stawns

[JM_]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

Which scenario is more common?

 

A -  UFA player has a chance at a career contract but leaves millions on the table to play for his current team

 

Or

 

B- UFA player has a chance at a career contract and chases the money for every penny?

 

but he's not a UFA yet. Thats what makes this interesting and difficult. A lot can happen to him next year. What happens if he gets injured or takes a step back say under a new coach? JT takes risks by waiting too. 

 

There is incentive for JT to sign an extension here that is in the 7's. Does he risk 50 million now, particularly if there's a lot of upfront bonus, for maybe 60 later? 

[stawns]

4 minutes ago, JM_ said:

but he's not a UFA yet. Thats what makes this interesting and difficult. A lot can happen to him next year. What happens if he gets injured or takes a step back say under a new coach? JT takes risks by waiting too. 

 

There is incentive for JT to sign an extension here that is in the 7's. Does he risk 50 million now, particularly if there's a lot of upfront bonus, for maybe 60 later? 

He doesn't seem like a guy who is afraid yo bet on himself.  If his agent gets an offer that starts with 7 he laughs in their face, imo.

[JM_]

Just now, stawns said:

He doesn't seem like a guy who is afraid yo bet on himself.  If his agent gets an offer that starts with 7 he laughs in their face, imo.

well, thats OK then. I love what Miller brings but it has to be reasonable. 50 mil over 7 years is pretty darn reasonable don't you think?

[BPA]

10 minutes ago, JM_ said:

well, thats OK then. I love what Miller brings but it has to be reasonable. 50 mil over 7 years is pretty darn reasonable don't you think?

I don’t think it’ll be 7yrs.  Cuz they mentioned something about the how much production Miller can do in the first 3 years vs the last 3yrs.  Or something like that.  Thus I think it’ll be a max 6yr contract.

[stawns]

19 minutes ago, JM_ said:

well, thats OK then. I love what Miller brings but it has to be reasonable. 50 mil over 7 years is pretty darn reasonable don't you think?

No way I'd offer more than 5.  But I'm f I'm Miller and I look around at comparables and I look at my totals and my number probably starts with 9.  

[HKSR]

8 minutes ago, stawns said:

No way I'd offer more than 5.  But I'm f I'm Miller and I look around at comparables and I look at my totals and my number probably starts with 9.  

I think there's a lot less teams than you think that would be willing to offer $9M+ for a 30 year old Miller. 

 

Go back and look at the original post and tell me which teams you think would be willing to shell out $9M+, but are also teams that Miller would want to go to (ie. contender or close to it).

[JM_]

17 minutes ago, BPA said:

I don’t think it’ll be 7yrs.  Cuz they mentioned something about the how much production Miller can do in the first 3 years vs the last 3yrs.  Or something like that.  Thus I think it’ll be a max 6yr contract.

so maybe 8 mil x 6 ? ~50 mil is the line for JR/PA imo

[JM_]

11 minutes ago, stawns said:

No way I'd offer more than 5.  But I'm f I'm Miller and I look around at comparables and I look at my totals and my number probably starts with 9.  

you could be correct, I'd be really surprised if anyone had a "9" in an offer. 

[stawns]

Just now, JM_ said:

so maybe 8 mil x 6 ? ~50 mil is the line for JR/PA imo

I don't get why people think he'll take less than comparable contracts

[stawns]

3 minutes ago, HKSR said:

I think there's a lot less teams than you think that would be willing to offer $9M+ for a 30 year old Miller. 

 

Go back and look at the original post and tell me which teams you think would be willing to shell out $9M+, but are also teams that Miller would want to go to (ie. contender or close to it).

There will be enough teams who will and he's unlikely to turn it down

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, stawns said:

There will be enough teams who will and he's unlikely to turn it down

$9M+ is a LOT of money for a 30 year old (almost 31 year old player).  Plus Miller would have to wait until summer of 2023... a lot can happen between now and then.  If Miller regresses even a little, it could shave $7 to $10M off his future earnings.  So in other words, he won't get to UFA status.  It'll be a trade now, or else a contract extension.  No team will be able to just offer him $9M+.  They'll have to trade for him.

[stawns]

1 minute ago, HKSR said:

$9M+ is a LOT of money for a 30 year old (almost 31 year old player).  Plus Miller would have to wait until summer of 2023... a lot can happen between now and then.  If Miller regresses even a little, it could shave $7 to $10M off his future earnings.  So in other words, he won't get to UFA status.  It'll be a trade now, or else a contract extension.  No team will be able to just offer him $9M+.  They'll have to trade for him.

So how do players get big paydays if no teams are willing to fork out the money?  How does Vegas add Pieterangelo when they're already at the cap?  Guess what, teams find a way and it happens year after year.

 

Honestly, it's like you're following a different league

[JM_]

13 minutes ago, stawns said:

I don't get why people think he'll take less than comparable contracts

because its a year away, because he may like it here, because of bonus money. Lots of reasons its possible. How probable? dunno. 

[kloubek]

1 hour ago, Muttley said:

Therein lies the problem with a thread that is entirely based on the assumption said player is going to ask for the world. Part of the reason I said I wouldn't come back here.

Oops. Sorry...

Well, Miller made it very clear he wants to play in Vancouver. As has Brock. But in both cases, they need to be willing to work with management to make that happen and take less than they could make on the open market.