Millers Value (Discussion/Proposals)

[J.I.A.H.N]

Ok...........I need everyone to have an open mind on this..............

 

Let's first look at Millers value............. (The Discussion Part)

 

1. Miller's value = player of same value (age and ability, one for one trade)

2. Miller's value = NHlL player, a pick and a prospect

3. Millers value = a UFA signing and a trade asset

 

#1. First let's get rid of the #1 option, as we are just as well to keep Miller, and try another way, than to just swap out a large contract for a large contract

 

#2. Let's look at option #2. a NHL player, a pick and a prospect. well from reports, the type of return JR is looking for , probably were not there, and was a little underwhelming.

IMO, it is the type of prospect that is the hang up, as IMO, JR is looking for a blue chip, and managers are no willing to let these types go...............not easily, anyways!

 

#3. This is the type of scenario I would like to explore. Now, first, you have to understand that if Miller is moved, it will create cap space, next year 5+ million, the year afterwards, 7.5 to 8.5 million in cap space. that is a serious amount of money to use in signing a replacement forward. Does it replace Miller, no, but there are some good UFA's, who have comparable age to Miller. who will come cheaper.

 

So, although not ideal...........Miller can still bring in a solid return, if you look at it in this manner...............

 

(The Proposal Parts)

 

Trade Proposal #1.................Miller for Ottawa's 2022 - 1st # 7 + Ottawa's 2022 - 2nd (39th)

 

Trade Proposal #2.................Miller for Columbus's 2022 - 1st #12 + Columbus's 2022 - 2nd (44th)

 

Trade Proposal #3..................Miller  for Buffalo's 2022 -1st #16 + Buffalo's 2022 - 2nd (41st)

 

 

Now in Ottawa's case, they are full of young eager NHL players and prospects, and acquiring a veteran like Miller who is scoring at a 90 to 100 pt clip, really starts to put finishing touches to Ottawa's rebuild. Is Miller worth a #7 OA? Yes, IMO, but is he worth both pieces? That is questionable.

 

In Columbus's case, they have 2 first round picks, and giving up their second 1st and a 2nd rounder, probably is palatable, and an easy sell to their fan base. Is it perfect? No, is it decent value? I think so!

 

In Buffalo's case, they have 3 -1st rounders (9, 16, and 24) to be able to pluck Miller and place him on the first line, and still have a #9 and #24 OA picks is a big plus. This is an easy move for Buffalo.

 

Now in the Canucks case, we may question if any of these returns are worth Miller by themselves. But one must remember the Cap space moved in this scenario, and add that into it.

 

Just randomly taking a player off of the UFA market and inserting them into the assets acquired as part of the trade, makes this trade in all ways, a good move. Let's just take the Buffalo trade and add in the asset. (Keep in mind the UFA player will be less than Miller, but still a very serviceable player) Keep in mind I said Random!

 

So, Buffalo trades Evan Rodrigues (Signed by the Canucks at $3 Million), 2022-1st 16th OA + Buffalo's 2022 - 2nd 41st OA, does this come close to Millers Value? I am not sure, but certainly, if we use Ottawa's proposal, we certainly are..........................again Evan Rodrigues, Ottawa's 7th OA, + Ottawa's 39th OA, should move the needle substantially!

 

Again, don't get hung up on Evan Rodrigues, as there are other players out there, that may be more interesting!

 

Anyways.................go ahead and slam me! I know you want to! LOL

 

[Pears]

When did Buffalo get Rodrigues again?

[J.I.A.H.N]

13 minutes ago, Pears said:

When did Buffalo get Rodrigues again?

 

I am inserting UFA (Pitts) Evan Rodrigues into the Miller trade assets to illistrate the total package of moving Miller!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

As I said in the opening thread!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 

Edited May 23, 2022 by J.I.A.H.N

[Angry Goose]

I think they keys to a Miller trade are:

 

Will he re-sign w/ that team?  If  not, he’s a 1 year rental.  I think only playoff teams would be after him in that case  

 

If he’s willing to re-sign, say a 6-7 year deal, which teams make sense?  IMO I think will be a very productive player for 4-5 Years.  Not 100pt pace but he’ll be a solid contributor.

 

In both scenarios I just cant see Miller being a fit w/ OTT.  

 

Howabout this super trade?  BOS is at a cross roads.  Some fans want a full in revbuild, others want to see the team take advantage of the key layers they have on their roster (Marchand, Mcavoy, Lindholm, Hall, Pasta etc).  Lets say BOS wants to go for it for the next 4 years:

 

VAN trades:

 

Miller (re-signs w/ BOS)

Garland (Mass. native) 

 

BOS trades (hear me out):

 

A package involving some or all of

 

B Carlo

2023 first (protected)

2022 2nd

Fabian Lysell

J Debrusk (cap reasons)

E Huala (cap reasons)

 

 

 

 

 

[KirkSave]

8 minutes ago, Angry Goose said:

Miller (re-signs w/ BOS)

Garland (Mass. native) 

 

BOS trades (hear me out):

 

A package involving some or all of

 

B Carlo

2023 first (protected)

2022 2nd

Fabian Lysell

J Debrusk (cap reasons)

E Huala (cap reasons)

If we could get that as a return I think it makes sense short and long term. I personally love Miller's game and if we can keep him, I hope we can move out cap in Myers, Poolman, Dickenson. But if that is not in the cards, I would think this deal or something similar to it would be fair for both sides. Get this to Alvin and his crew asap, especially if Bergeron decides to hang em up!

[Alflives]

I really like the Buffalo option.  If a non playoff team is looking to get Miller to add experience to their young lineup they might be in that group.  I still see Miller as a rental more so though.  So his value will be a later first (20-30) and a prospect. 

[JM_]

So @J.I.A.H.N this is a bit Burke-ian in that you're looking at the value of the cap created by moving Miller as the main asset, if I'm reading this right? 

 

It might be too hard to trade for someone of equal value for sure, and top RHD's aren't likely coming our way no matter what. 

 

We could send him to any of the teams you suggest, but would he re-sign there? would those teams give up that many picks with him as a 1 year rental? they might, because they can retain salary and flip him at the TDL too and get assets recovered that way.

 

Maybe we can look at this as an offer sheet possibility instead of UFA? Get the picks for Miller and use those to draft our prospects, use our own picks to fire off an offer sheet.

 

We can go up to 6.3 mil and it costs a 1st and a 3rd. 

 

We can potentially take Romanov from Montreal, Roy or Hague from Vegas, maybe even PLD from WPG. And I don't care about the whole retaliation thing, bring it on. 

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by JM_

[higgyfan]

If Bergeron retires, I can see Boston making a run for Miller.  JT is a Boston kind of player.

 

Miller for Debrusk, Frederic + Lysell + 2nd

 

I don't think the Bruins will trade Carlo, no matter what.  That's ok 'cause...Garland for Matt Roy straight up (Kings)

 

Trade: Debrusk + 2nd for Lawson Crouse(AZ)

 

*Vancouver ends up with Crouse, Frederic and Lysell for Miller.

 

Myers for Geekie (Kraken)

 

Copp (UFA)   Pete    Brock

Crouse     Bo      Hogs

Pears    Geekie    Pods

Frederic    Lammy   Locks

Dixie

 

Hughes    Roy

OEL    C. Miller or Lubushkin (UFA)

Demer   Schenn

Rath  Poolman

[hammertime]

I think  when we are looking at where Miller will land I think the key is a team that is ready to flip the switch or a team that has just opened their window. 

 

The more I think about it. NJ has the pieces and stands to gain the most. Could see something around Holtz. They draft Slafkovski this year they could move Holtz if their adding a guy like Miller without looking back. They've got Subban and Tatar expiring they can afford to extend Miller. They flip the switch and rub it in the Rags face at the same time.   

[BigTramFan]

I think LA is an ideal trade partner for Miller. They are entering their contending window, they are looking for scoring, they have the cap space now, and with Quick's $5.8m contract ending in 2023 they will have the cap space to resign Miller long term. Kopitar is aging and may retire in 2 years allowing them to pay their upcoming prospects. They have Danault and Byfield as long term centers, but Miller would complement those two nicely (could play wing with Byfield as a mentor until Kopitar retires, then they have Miller and Byfield as 1C/2C).

 

In addition, and most importantly, they have plenty of C and RD depth and prospects that they could exchange for Miller - which is what we need. Perhaps Roy + Turcotte + Grans for Miller. Roy is a known piece, top 4 defensive Dman, and would be an ideal partner for Hughes right now. Grans is a big 20 year old RHD, a potential Myers/Schenn replacement. Turcotte is a big question mark at this stage, but has the pedigree and could turn out to be the best player in this trade.

[Alflives]

22 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

If Bergeron retires, I can see Boston making a run for Miller.  JT is a Boston kind of player.

 

Miller for Debrusk, Frederic + Lysell + 2nd

 

I don't think the Bruins will trade Carlo, no matter what.  That's ok 'cause...Garland for Matt Roy straight up (Kings)

 

Trade: Debrusk + 2nd for Lawson Crouse(AZ)

 

*Vancouver ends up with Crouse, Frederic and Lysell for Miller.

 

Myers for Geekie (Kraken)

 

Copp (UFA)   Pete    Brock

Crouse     Bo      Hogs

Pears    Geekie    Pods

Frederic    Lammy   Locks

Dixie

 

Hughes    Roy

OEL    C. Miller or Lubushkin (UFA)

Demer   Schenn

Rath  Poolman

I’m liking most of this.  But I think Garland would carry more value in a trade to Arizona (he’s signed to four more years on a great deal) then other places.  So Garland gets us Crouse +?  

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, hammertime said:

I think  when we are looking at where Miller will land I think the key is a team that is ready to flip the switch or a team that has just opened their window. 

 

The more I think about it. NJ has the pieces and stands to gain the most. Could see something around Holtz. They draft Slafkovski this year they could move Holtz if their adding a guy like Miller without looking back. They've got Subban and Tatar expiring they can afford to extend Miller. They flip the switch and rub it in the Rags face at the same time.   

I like!

Holtz plus what more?  Bahl?  

[hammertime]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

I like!

Holtz plus what more?  Bahl?  

They probably want to have Bahl and Shak play a large part of their cost controlled blueline. Maybe their 2nd and we draft our own guy in Lamoureux?

[higgyfan]

7 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I’m liking most of this.  But I think Garland would carry more value in a trade to Arizona (he’s signed to four more years on a great deal) then other places.  So Garland gets us Crouse +?  

I think Debrusk and Garland have similar value and cap.  I don't think Garland alone gets Crouse.  Besides, the Coyotes

probably don't want to do a trade back with Nucks.

 

Much rather acquire Roy from LA.  He would be great alongside Hughes.  Straight up for Garland.

[VegasCanuck]

IF we were to trade Miller, and I could see it happening, based on unsubstantiated reports that he's not negotiating a discount to stay. So, IF we were to trade him, considering he has no trade protection and we can work with 31 teams for a destination, I would say minimum return is, 1st (nothing past 20), Solid Roster player (young RD preferable) and a solid prospect, likely blue chip.

 

 

[J.I.A.H.N]

1 hour ago, VegasCanuck said:

IF we were to trade Miller, and I could see it happening, based on unsubstantiated reports that he's not negotiating a discount to stay. So, IF we were to trade him, considering he has no trade protection and we can work with 31 teams for a destination, I would say minimum return is, 1st (nothing past 20), Solid Roster player (young RD preferable) and a solid prospect, likely blue chip.

 

 

You, see, and that is exactly the opposite of what I want to happen.................I think it is a team, just on the verge of breaking out...................and I think the one commodity they have in spade is picks. Adding a 100 point getter is nothing to sneeze at, but most teams do not want to give up known commodities.................

 

As I see it, it will be a team like that, who first gets permission to discuss what a long term deal will look like, and I think they would already know it would not be cheap...................

 

Personally.........Pitts and Boston could both use him, but they do not have the assets to give, IMO........we want the ability to maneuver within the draft and within the UFA market.

 

A secondary move to get a RHD before the draft could be with LA, but  not as part of the Miller trade.............I know I do not want to see him in our division................................................

 

 

 

 

Edited May 23, 2022 by J.I.A.H.N

[Alflives]

15 minutes ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

You, see, and that is exactly the opposite of what I want to happen.................I think it is a team, just on the verge of breaking out...................and I think the one commodity they have in spade is picks. Adding a 100 point getter is nothing to sneeze at, but most teams do not want to give up known commodities.................

 

As I see it, it will be a team like that, who first gets permission to discuss what a long term deal will look like, and I think they would already know it would not be cheap...................

 

Personally.........Pitts and Boston could both use him, but they do not have the assets to give, IMO........we want the ability to maneuver within the draft and within the UFA market.

 

A secondary move to get a RHD before the draft could be with LA, but  not as part of the Miller trade.............I know I do not want to see him in our division................................................

 

 

 

 

Maybe we actually keep Miller?  55 million?  7 years at 7.75?

we trade Garland for picks and cap room.  

[Drakrami]

Dont think Ottawa or Buffalo is in the position to make a 60 million dollar plus trade. 

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, Drakrami said:

Dont think Ottawa or Buffalo is in the position to make a 60 million dollar plus trade. 

Exactly!  Those are the teams that struggle keeping their own players without way overpaying.  So they would love Garland.  Top six guy, highly skilled, high compete, and signed to a very good contract for four more of his prime years.  We could get a lot for Garland.  

[VegasCanuck]

14 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

You, see, and that is exactly the opposite of what I want to happen.................I think it is a team, just on the verge of breaking out...................and I think the one commodity they have in spade is picks. Adding a 100 point getter is nothing to sneeze at, but most teams do not want to give up known commodities.................

 

As I see it, it will be a team like that, who first gets permission to discuss what a long term deal will look like, and I think they would already know it would not be cheap...................

 

Personally.........Pitts and Boston could both use him, but they do not have the assets to give, IMO........we want the ability to maneuver within the draft and within the UFA market.

 

A secondary move to get a RHD before the draft could be with LA, but  not as part of the Miller trade.............I know I do not want to see him in our division................................................

 

 

 

 

If he can be resigned to a contract that's not going to suffocate the team, I'm completely in favor of keeping him, but I'm becoming less believing that it's possible. If it's not possible, we trade him to whoever can offer the best overall return. Ideally, I would like to move him at or before the draft and get another 1st this year. I think it's probably the best overall time as we have the most teams to talk to and work out a deal with. Teams who are close, know who they are and know that they have the rest of the summer to reorganize their team to spread out for any assets the lose in acquiring Miller.

 

Overall, I'm about 60% sure that Miller will get moved this summer, about 40% that either OEL or Myers will get moved, really depends if OEL is willing to waive again. 

 

Boeser is likely about 25% chance of being moved

Garland I'd put about 40%

Pearson about 10% (I think management like him)

Dickinson I'd say about 50%

Poolman about 20% if we trade Myers, if we don't trade Myers, I think he jumps up to about 75%

Ferland's contract, about 50% chance that we shuffle it off to Toronto or Tampa.

 

NOW, keep in mind that ALL of this is maybe 5% chance as I'm usually full of S%!&

 

Edited May 24, 2022 by VegasCanuck