Pickly Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 9 hours ago, ey40 said: Canucks will never win the draft lottery, because that is the Canucks luck. So if they really want Bedard, they need to be creative, just like how Burke got the Sedins. No team is going to pass up the opportunity to draft Bedard. He’s got that rare generational talent. If the Canuck pick say 3rd overall and want to trade up you’d think Hughes and or Petey would have to be included. I for one would do it lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nucker 67 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 It's more than just losing (tanking), the Canucks need more 1st Round picks in the mix. Trade Miller or Horvat, and Boeser for a couple more 1sts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxVerstappen33 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 hours ago, Pickly said: No team is going to pass up the opportunity to draft Bedard. He’s got that rare generational talent. If the Canuck pick say 3rd overall and want to trade up you’d think Hughes and or Petey would have to be included. I for one would do it lol. I might too. But then again. Maybe we could sign him just as he exist restricted free agency. So we could get Fantilli though the draft and then sign Bedard 4 or 5 years later. If he signs the shortest contracts possible on his draft team 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxVerstappen33 Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 I made this picture for my avatar in Mcdavids draft year. Here we are again. Unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnkNuk Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 2 hours ago, NUCKER67 said: It's more than just losing (tanking), the Canucks need more 1st Round picks in the mix. Trade Miller or Horvat, and Boeser for a couple more 1sts If we were to trade Miller straight up for draft pick(s), how many and what type do people think we could get? Ditto for Bo. Ditto for Boeser. Keeping in mind that first round draft picks are of two types: ones that have a shot (however limited) at getting the first overall pick and those (from probable playoff teams) that have no shot whatsoever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harold Drunken Posted November 18, 2022 Share Posted November 18, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 4:09 PM, Drakrami said: Pretty amazing we have invested so much in this team, and it has a worse record than freaking Arizona which is playing other team's cap dumps as their top 6. We also took 2 of their top 4 players to boot 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted November 18, 2022 Author Share Posted November 18, 2022 1 hour ago, UnkNuk said: If we were to trade Miller straight up for draft pick(s), how many and what type do people think we could get? Ditto for Bo. Ditto for Boeser. Keeping in mind that first round draft picks are of two types: ones that have a shot (however limited) at getting the first overall pick and those (from probable playoff teams) that have no shot whatsoever. I would really like to see the latter ones be 2024 picks…the downside of having a year later means you also have the added chance that team goes into a tailspin the next season. Most trades in season get you those later picks… if a team isn’t doing well and is heading towards a high pick, it isn’t likely they are adding pieces… well I mean unless they are run by Canucks brass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
granpappy Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 its ok ... he comes home as a fa 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 (edited) Can't lose em all but with Vegas and Colorado up next there's a chance to get back on track Edited November 19, 2022 by Coconuts 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ey40 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 13 hours ago, Pickly said: No team is going to pass up the opportunity to draft Bedard. He’s got that rare generational talent. If the Canuck pick say 3rd overall and want to trade up you’d think Hughes and or Petey would have to be included. I for one would do it lol. I would definitely consider including Petey if Bedard is really the McDavid-level player! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU SERIOUS Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 3 hours ago, Coconuts said: Can't lose em all but with Vegas and Colorado up next there's a chance to get back on track If or should I say when we lose both the Vegas games and Colorado next week that will pretty well "seal the deal" on this team having a realistic chance of maybe slipping into the very last wild card spot and that will likely be the end of BB and then put JR on the Hot-Seat to demolish this team once and for all and position us for a good draft. There's still hope when we lose those next three games. Fingers crossed! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGT68 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 Confused at all the huge swings. Had a bit of a slow start. Not at all out of it and nothing is slim at this point. Everyone just needs a little patience. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lumme21 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 1 hour ago, TGT68 said: Confused at all the huge swings. Had a bit of a slow start. Not at all out of it and nothing is slim at this point. Everyone just needs a little patience. I think you need a reality check. Most fans have been patient for 10 years. This team is not confusing at all. It is fragile, capped out, and lacks defensive awareness. Demko looked great, and likely is getting back to form, and he, Miller and Bo will push this team to 10th-12th or so in the West. The only confusing thing is management seemingly doubling down on this team. They will be forced to trade Horvat. If Horvat goes, Boeser and Miller should also follow. With that, the Canucks may actually have a legit chance at a top 5 pick, which is what they really need. Instead, they are going to hire Rich Tocchet, get coaching bump, and as I said finish with a dreaded 13-16th overall pick. They will get another 1st round pick (Likely 2024) in the Horvat trade and say they tried everything they could to sign the captain blah blah blah and succeeded in their goals of getting younger and more picks. BS. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGT68 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 1 hour ago, Lumme21 said: I think you need a reality check. Most fans have been patient for 10 years. This team is not confusing at all. It is fragile, capped out, and lacks defensive awareness. Demko looked great, and likely is getting back to form, and he, Miller and Bo will push this team to 10th-12th or so in the West. The only confusing thing is management seemingly doubling down on this team. They will be forced to trade Horvat. If Horvat goes, Boeser and Miller should also follow. With that, the Canucks may actually have a legit chance at a top 5 pick, which is what they really need. Instead, they are going to hire Rich Tocchet, get coaching bump, and as I said finish with a dreaded 13-16th overall pick. They will get another 1st round pick (Likely 2024) in the Horvat trade and say they tried everything they could to sign the captain blah blah blah and succeeded in their goals of getting younger and more picks. BS. Really think it's you that needs a reality check. The new regime is not going to turn the team around on a dime. It is not their style or what they were hired to do. We may see a big trade or two and hopefully those trades bring in prospect depth and draft picks. We will make the playoffs this year and goal will be to make them every year from here on out. I don't believe we will ever tank. But yes I still believe Horvat or Miller must go, whichever brings the best haul. Slow and steady wins the race and I believe that is the plan. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lumme21 Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 18 minutes ago, TGT68 said: Really think it's you that needs a reality check. The new regime is not going to turn the team around on a dime. It is not their style or what they were hired to do. We may see a big trade or two and hopefully those trades bring in prospect depth and draft picks. We will make the playoffs this year and goal will be to make them every year from here on out. I don't believe we will ever tank. But yes I still believe Horvat or Miller must go, whichever brings the best haul. Slow and steady wins the race and I believe that is the plan. Are you a hack working for FA? JR and PA could have turned this team around last TD and dug their heels in and double downed. They hitched their wagons to the wring players, already traded away picks to be competitive (all be it only a second) and it will set this team back for a long time (again). The new regime looks exactly like the old regimes, the only thing consistent is FA. Slow and steady? Like the last 10 years? New York Rangers didn't go slow, and look at where they are now. They identified the correct players to build around, and then went for it. They supposedly offered Van a lifeline in Lundqvist and picks to Van for Miller, yet we didn't take it and instead made a anchor out of what was once a very good asset (Miller). What's the value in keeping Miller or Bo, if you can't compete? They both have to be traded for assets. By keeping one, and not the other, you are ensuring this team stays in that list of teams just out of playoff contention but with no top 10 pick. This team will not make the playoffs, and if they do, it means that they would have to have extended Horvat for an outrageous contract. The goal shouldn't be to make the playoffs every year (16 teams do that) the goal has to be to win a cup. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 On 11/13/2022 at 6:44 PM, Provost said: Well here, goes... I am doing this one game early (at least mathematically) in hopes that I am made to look foolish by a string of Canucks wins. The standard from a whole crap ton of historical data is that by the 20 games mark (around American Thanksgiving), any team that is either under .500 or more than 4 points out of a playoff berth has pretty low odds to make the playoffs. One more loss in the next 5 games and we can't make .500 by the 20 game mark. The difficulty in making up ground is a function of a couple of things. One main one is that the winning % range between a bad team and a good team is really quite small which makes it a lot harder of a road to make up ground than it looks. Aside from a few outliers, a really good team over a season plays at .650 (106-107 points) and with the loser points, a REALLY bad team still plays at about .400 (65-66 points). This was really illustrated last year when the Canucks played just lights out for half a season and still fell well short of a playoff spot. That really reflected a best case scenario as a couple of teams we were chasing also faltered badly. Still not good enough because when you fall behind the math is really against you. Lots of teams between you and a playoff spot that you have to outplay, and a lot of guaranteed points between them for at least one of them to stay ahead of you. It is almost a mathematical impossibility for a whole bunch of teams ahead of you to play sub .500 for the rest of the season. Someone has to win games and get points out of each given game, and unless we win most of our in-conference games; they split all in-conference games between each other about 50/50; and then lose most of their games against the East... some teams will just stay ahead of us. It is just math. It isn't being negative. What that means is when you look at 67 games left to play... if the Canucks played lights out at a .650 rate from here on out.. they end up with 98 points which is enough to squeak into a playoff spot with the historic cut off being about 96 points. If the Canucks play really bad for the rest of the season at a .400 rate, they end up at 64-65 points. That range doesn't give a lot of runway for the Canucks to actually make it, and a whole lot of possible outcomes that mean missing the playoffs. The most likely outcome will be in the 73-83 point range for the season now, which already assumes the Canucks start playing quite a bit better than they have to start the season. The odds of the Canucks making the playoffs on various websites as of 13th Nov: MoneyPuck 8.5% Playoff Status 21% Hockey Reference 16.5% Power Rankings 19.1% Five Thirty Eight 24% So basically a 1 in 5 chance of making the playoffs... which we always forget isn't actually the goal. The odds of actually winning the Cup are vastly more insignificant than that. The Team President keeps slagging off the coach who has to know by now that his contract isn't going to be renewed... the players have to know that too now, which is a super shitty thing to do to a coach who is trying to hold players accountable for poor play. It also means that there is zero motivation for Boudreau to play the kids since his job is to win games in the short term and not to develop players for a roster he won't be coaching. Injuries have already piled up, and the team wasn't performing well even when healthy. There isn't a lot to suggest a massive turnaround for the team playing at an elite level for the remainder of the season. More folks seem to be more onboard with the idea of trading away and rebuilding this time around, which seems like a good idea right now to me instead of chasing fairly long odds to make the playoffs. There is no realistic path for this roster to get much better over the next couple of years. No prospects to speak of along with cap issues that would make filling the holes possible via the UFA route. Making big trades creates other holes, as we have relatively few areas of organizational strength (Our main strength being overpaid 3rd pairing D... which aren't the best trade assets). It is hard to make big deals mid season, but hopefully some teams are facing injuries or want to keep up with their divisional rivals and will pay the price... and even more hopefully the Canucks brass are open for business. The exception for a shorter term turnaround would be if they still managed to trade Miller for some D help and futures, and were able to sign Bo for reasonable dollars. That could allow the cap space to fix some D issues and be more competitive in a year or two when some expensive contracts come off the books. Barring that, I don't see a roadmap for becoming a contender that doesn't involve literally tearing it down and starting from scratch. That includes Petterson, Hughes, and Demko to me, as a rebuild means we won't be contending any time soon while they are under club control. They are also basically the main attractive trade pieces that would net us a ton of players, picks, and prospects that would form the basis of a rebuild. Some folks keep mentioning just casting off our undesirable players and somehow getting assets in return that turn into the cheap, high end ELC contributors we need coming through the system... I don't know how you see that working, we would have to give up the futures we need to rebuild to get rid of those contracts. From my "homer" side, 1 in 5 playoff chances mean at least every once in a while the team will actually manage it. Maybe this is the year? That is very Canucks like to improve enough to just make our draft position worse, yet make no noise in the playoffs. You're the best Provost! As usual you haven't disappointed. And well thanks for the win last night! I'm sure now they turn it around. So far that's the script anyways. You're a good sport. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted November 19, 2022 Share Posted November 19, 2022 2 hours ago, Lumme21 said: I think you need a reality check. Most fans have been patient for 10 years. This team is not confusing at all. It is fragile, capped out, and lacks defensive awareness. Demko looked great, and likely is getting back to form, and he, Miller and Bo will push this team to 10th-12th or so in the West. The only confusing thing is management seemingly doubling down on this team. They will be forced to trade Horvat. If Horvat goes, Boeser and Miller should also follow. With that, the Canucks may actually have a legit chance at a top 5 pick, which is what they really need. Instead, they are going to hire Rich Tocchet, get coaching bump, and as I said finish with a dreaded 13-16th overall pick. They will get another 1st round pick (Likely 2024) in the Horvat trade and say they tried everything they could to sign the captain blah blah blah and succeeded in their goals of getting younger and more picks. BS. Hey i get it. We are sour. As a fanbase. That doesn't have to be the way the though. We can blindly pledge allegiance into to Black/Yellow/Red/Green/Blue whatever point you became a fan. Orca/SIR/Skate. We've all been hurt by this team, but it doesn't mean we have to be sour either. It's a choice. Not calling you out - or anyone. But the simple math is, right now, every team gets a 1/32 chance of winning a cup ... and 6-16 teams get a big advantage cap wise. Ours is more like 1/45 once you add that lol. So blah. Blah blah blah. Might as well enjoy the little things. It is what it is. 1993. I was hoping Gretzky won. But Roy had other ideas. CAL/EDM/VAN have since lost game 7's. The math is the math. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaxVerstappen33 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 5 hours ago, TGT68 said: Really think it's you that needs a reality check. The new regime is not going to turn the team around on a dime. In effect , it was. Aquilini wanted it turned around on a dime. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-23 Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 21 hours ago, granpappy said: its ok ... he comes home as a fa Unless he goes to Anaheim. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
combover Posted November 20, 2022 Share Posted November 20, 2022 Draft Lottery is rigged it’s done behind closed doors lol we have a better chance of winning the cup this year than winning Gary buttmans draft lottery. i see Chicago Or Arizona as the lottery winners as they are bettmans pets. whos the 5th ranked draft pick? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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