Tank Hard for Bedard - Playoff chances are already Slim

[Fred65]

1 hour ago, Coconuts said:

I mean, a Horvat trade alone would seriously impact this team's ability to compete. Dunno why you'd say otherwise. The Canucks don't exactly have someone to replace his production, faceoff ability, or special teams play. The team's record looks uglier without Horvat doing what he's done thus far. 

 

Particularly if they get picks and prospects as the primary return. 

What was it Dante said "abandon hope all ye  who enter here" and believe me if Horvat goes that's the result. Which then leads you to wonder then why did they sign Miller to such a high contract if they're going to trade Horvat ?? Horvat leaves is basically a tank

[Provost]

1 hour ago, The King of Kings said:

I think people should stop putting "Tank" and "Bedard" in the same sentence.

 

I remember a few hockey experts already stated that the Canucks with the current roster are not going to tank and become bottom feeder. 

 

And with the cap situation around the league, the Canucks cannot clear out too many contracts without giving away futures (the best bet would be trading away Myers+Horvat) during the season.

 

Basically the House-cleaning sale cannot happen until the off-season, i.e. after the draft lottery. 

 

Getting rid of Myers and Horvat only is not enough to decrease the overall rating of the team dramaticallly, thus it's not enough for the "tank" before the season ends.

 

 

 

 

 

Ummm… you do know we are in 30th place right now WITH all our players right?

 

Trades also generally involve taking money back into terms of inefficient contracts that are close to expiring.  That doesn’t have to wait until the offseason as the net cap difference in these trades is negligible… never mind instances where contending teams are needing to replace long term injuries and has extra space.

 

If you remove Horvat and Miller from this group (both those trades are eminently possible in season) it will ensure the team stays in the bottom 5 and has a decent shot at one of the excellent top three ta led draft prospects including Bedard.  It is a lottery, you don’t have to finish at the absolute bottom… that just gives you slightly better odds at the top pick.

.

[The King of Kings]

14 minutes ago, Provost said:

Ummm… you do know we are in 30th place right now WITH all our players right?

 

Trades also generally involve taking money back into terms of inefficient contracts that are close to expiring.  That doesn’t have to wait until the offseason as the net cap difference in these trades is negligible… never mind instances where contending teams are needing to replace long term injuries and has extra space.

 

If you remove Horvat and Miller from this group (both those trades are eminently possible in season) it will ensure the team stays in the bottom 5 and has a decent shot at one of the excellent top three ta led draft prospects including Bedard.  It is a lottery, you don’t have to finish at the absolute bottom… that just gives you slightly better odds at the top pick.

.

At the same time, the team was playing .650 hockey with most of those same players.

 

the team will hit bottom five only if Demko continues to struggle until April, and he actually plays all the games except back-to-back.

[Gawdzukes]

21 hours ago, Provost said:

It is really interesting to see the different tone this year when I posted the playoff odds compared with the last couple years.  I guess folks eventually realize making the same bad decisions over and over have put us into a loop of futility.

 

The math has been the same each year (when we have fallen below 20% chance to make the playoff on the combined statistical models)… but this is the first time I haven’t gotten dozens of flame posts calling be stupid, a bad human, and not a “real” fan.

 

The same is true then as it is now.  Once you reach the point where the playoffs are very unlikely, it is smart to change your horizon to what will help you the next year.  That stops you from trading assets or picks for bandaids and lets you dispassionately assess expiring and veterans players as assets to turn into futures, and figure out if you can weaponize cap space at the deadline for more assets.

 

Just imagine what position we would be in if we traded Miller, Garland, and anyone other spare prices we could last January/February?  We could have added Marino and Bjorkstrand for pennies on the dollar, and had millions in extra cap to spend on free agents or in trades.  We could have signed Bo to a max term extension at around $7 million if we prioritized him over Miller.  We would have also likely gotten a top ten or even better pick.

 

Making those kinds of decisions is what turns you into a perennial contender as you keep getting assets until your team shows it is really ready to compete.  Then you have a decently long window.  Short term fixes to the bottom end of the lineup are less than useless unless you are well in a playoff position and want to add guys like HIggins and Lappiere for a long run.

 

Instead we are forced to look back at every year and with hindsight about what a missed opportunity we had and how it will affect us going forward.

I used to get pissed at this thread from an athlete view. The numbers are true until you win three in a row and then they can change drastically and all of the sudden you're within striking distance. Of course you're right though statistcally and most teams just don't make it. Really that's exciting as a player but not as a tired Canucks fan. 

 

It's time to be smart and make moves forward, instead of always backwards. Even if we only gain a 2nd or a third, or a Bjorkstrand, cap space and future.

 

Out of 31 teams we have work to do and should be doing it instead of lying to ourselves and blowing our assets partying it up for the night. 

[Gawdzukes]

2 hours ago, Fred65 said:

It's my belief that to have a chnace of Bedard Vcr is going to need to aquire one more 1st round pick so they can trade those two fiirst rounders to secure the #1 spot O/A. So I'm thinking if Horvat/Miller/Boeser are to go you MUST get a first round pick back and if possible get back a 2nd round pick that we've already traed away. Then and only then will you be able to get Bedard,  we need Burke back to pull that off  

I think you would have better odds collecting top picks and hoping one of them hits. No GM is trading the first unless you have 10 first rounders.

[Alflives]

10 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

I used to get pissed at this thread from an athlete view. The numbers are true until you win three in a row and then they can change drastically and all of the sudden you're within striking distance. Of course you're right though statistcally and most teams just don't make it. Really that's exciting as a player but not as a tired Canucks fan. 

 

It's time to be smart and make moves forward, instead of always backwards. Even if we only gain a 2nd or a third, or a Bjorkstrand, cap space and future.

 

Out of 31 teams we have work to do and should be doing it instead of lying to ourselves and blowing our assets partying it up for the night. 

Our owne4 his instructed management to sacrifice the future with “win now” moves since he bough5 the club.  It worked with Gillis “The Great”, but has been an absolute failure outside of his grea5 success.  

[Gawdzukes]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Our owne4 his instructed management to sacrifice the future with “win now” moves since he bough5 the club.  It worked with Gillis “The Great”, but has been an absolute failure outside of his grea5 success.  

Whatever the plan has been it must change or we won't have success. Detailed sacrifices are key.

[Provost]

32 minutes ago, The King of Kings said:

At the same time, the team was playing .650 hockey with most of those same players.

 

the team will hit bottom five only if Demko continues to struggle until April, and he actually plays all the games except back-to-back.

That is some big time confirmation bias you have there.

 

The team hasn’t been good for years with largely the same players and you believe that the little stretch where we won a bunch of games when Boudreau took over is what the team actually is.

 

If you take out the 8-0-1 start under Boudreau, the rest of even that good stretch was a barely good enough rate to make the playoffs… so really it was a couple of hot weeks.

[Fred65]

31 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

I think you would have better odds collecting top picks and hoping one of them hits. No GM is trading the first unless you have 10 first rounders.

Unless, unless you rate Bedard substantially higher then the other picks

[The King of Kings]

14 minutes ago, Provost said:

That is some big time confirmation bias you have there.

 

The team hasn’t been good for years with largely the same players and you believe that the little stretch where we won a bunch of games when Boudreau took over is what the team actually is.

 

If you take out the 8-0-1 start under Boudreau, the rest of even that good stretch was a barely good enough rate to make the playoffs… so really it was a couple of hot weeks.

umm....

 

if you take out the 0-5-2 start of the current season, the team is still at the playoffs hunt.

[Coconuts]

2 hours ago, Fred65 said:

What was it Dante said "abandon hope all ye  who enter here" and believe me if Horvat goes that's the result. Which then leads you to wonder then why did they sign Miller to such a high contract if they're going to trade Horvat ?? Horvat leaves is basically a tank

It's true, I was baffled that they tried to do Miller first. Horvat leaving seems inevitable now. 

Edited November 24, 2022 by Coconuts

[Coconuts]

 

 

[MeanSeanBean]

21 hours ago, The King of Kings said:

umm....

 

if you take out the 0-5-2 start of the current season, the team is still at the playoffs hunt.

and if my Grandmother had wheels she'd be a bike.

[FijianCanuck]

5 hours ago, Shayster007 said:

and if my Grandmother had wheels she'd be a bike.

[wai_lai416]

On 11/23/2022 at 5:17 PM, The King of Kings said:

At the same time, the team was playing .650 hockey with most of those same players.

 

the team will hit bottom five only if Demko continues to struggle until April, and he actually plays all the games except back-to-back.

the team only played .650 hockey coz they had a weak schedule when bruce took over.. they are world beaters against the bottom feeders and they weren't great against the playoff teams.. this year they continue struggling against the playoff teams and they ain't even great against the bottom feeders.. beatened by buffalo philadephia columbus montreal 

[DownUndaCanuck]

If Anaheim end up with Bedard we're going to be facing these phenom talents for decades. McDavid is far from whooping us, then Bedard will come along into the Pacific.

[J-23]

What a year to go for a top 3 pick and instead Rutherford decided to double down on Benning's team 

[ShawnAntoski]

On 11/23/2022 at 6:15 PM, The King of Kings said:

umm....

 

if you take out the 0-5-2 start of the current season, the team is still at the playoffs hunt.

Then what happens next: playoff fodder or drafting in the teens/nhl purgatory = no cup.

Edited November 26, 2022 by ShawnAntoski

[ShawnAntoski]

1 hour ago, J-23 said:

What a year to go for a top 3 pick and instead Rutherford decided to double down on Benning's team 

Aquamans' dream 

[ShawnAntoski]

On 11/24/2022 at 2:14 PM, Coconuts said:

 

 

If Demko or Martin, gets hot - then Bedard remains a fan...