[Trade] Red Wings trade Filip Hronek, 2023 4th-round pick to Canucks for conditional 2023 1st-round pick (NYI), 2023 2nd-round pick

[Dixon Ward]

I am happy with the Hronek trade.  Of course time will tell with every trade.  There are 3 reasons for my happiness.

 

1.  Despite the media and many on cdc, the Canucks have some world class players in all the right positions.  We have 2 top 20 centers, 1 top 10 dman, and 1 top 10 goalie.  We also have a strong supporting cast of forwards with Kuz, Mikhyev, Boeser, Garland, etc. so scoring is not an issue.  What we lack is top 4 defensemen.  OEL can be a 3-4 guy still, but needs to change it up a bit.  So we need at least 2 dmen.  We just go 1.  

2.  Draft picks and tear downs rarely work as many teams do them and rarely win the Stanley Cup.  I respect Yzerman, but he has been there 4 years now and is still tearing it down.  He may be successful, but the odds are against him.  If he is, it will be in 4- 6 years.  That's 8-10 years of trading good players away in hopes of some draft picks turning out.  I did a deep dive into the 2018 draft for defensemen:

Dmen taken in Rounds 1 and 2: 27

Dmen who play top pairing this season: 5

Dmen who play 2nd pairing this season: 6

Dmen who have played more than 50 games 5 years after being drafted: 14

 

So the 1st and 2nd we traded away have a 5 out of 27 chance of producing us a top 5 defenseman.  2 of those are Dahlin and Hughes.  So outside the top 10 you have a 3/25 chance of getting a top pairing dman.  The kicker is that only 1 of those, Noah Dobson, is Right handed.

 

3. After seeing the results of #2 I looked at Dobson as a comparison.  I think we can all say that we would have done backflips if the same trade was for Dobson.  So lets compare the 2:

 

Dobson: 23yrs old, 4mil/season, 36 pts, -3, 20:48TOI, PP time 208 min, PPP 16, SH time 31 min, Hits 53, Blocks per game 4.23

 

Hronek: 25yrs old, 4.125mil/season, 38 pts, +8, 21:32TOI, PP time 144 min, PPP 16, SH time 97 min, Hits 97, Blocks per game 2.5

 

They are similar players but Hronek wins every category other than Dobson is 2 years younger, cost 125k less, and blocks more shots.  

 

1 very important factor is NYI wouldn't have made this trade, because they think Dobson is too valuable.

Edited March 4, 2023 by Dixon Ward

[DefCon1]

34 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

Gawd, I hope they can snag Livingstone. That would be a huge boost. Hey, what are your thoughts, gent, on Hronek's highlights looking so good, but a lot of Detroit fans saying he's a third pairing defenseman on a contending team and that Yzerman fleeced us?

He is not, he was playing better than Seider this year

[Dixon Ward]

1 minute ago, DefCon1 said:

He is not, he was playing better than Seider this year

Yzerman has nowhere near the team we have at this point.  He is 3 years away from being 3 years away.

[DefCon1]

1 minute ago, Dixon Ward said:

Yzerman has nowhere near the team we have at this point.  He is 3 years away from being 3 years away.

True, I think Canucks are further ahead the the wings. We also have a lot more offensive forwards comparef to them and they only have Larkin and Raymond while Zadina was a bust.

[Sharpshooter]

2 hours ago, kodos said:

Considering the Islanders suck, an unprotected 2024 pick could end up being much more valuable, no? 

Or it could be worse or around the same…a middle pick. 
 

Nucks would still need a quality RHD next year if they didn’t acquire one this year. Also need quality LHD now too. 

[Sharpshooter]

1 hour ago, Canucks Curse said:

I do not get what Stevie Y is doing, he is re building the rebuild, Hronek was a core piece for them

Retooling the rebuild. 

[Jester13]

9 minutes ago, DefCon1 said:

He is not, he was playing better than Seider this year

His highlights look so good, and I'm thinking that any of his lowlights can be improved with help from Gonchar and Foote. Is it possible we fleeced Yzerman? 

[MaxVerstappen33]

2 hours ago, MeanSeanBean said:

My good friend is a redwing for life. First thing I did when this trade happened was text him and ask what's up. He told me the Wings sold high on a good player that is having a career year, and he was absolutely stoked. To be clear, he liked the player. But he's watched him closely since the draft and he was over the moon they essentially got a potential lotto pick for free. He said the 2nd was the pick the drafted him with, they got his best years (he thinks the player will be good for longer, just think he peaked this year) and then got a free first.

 

It's never a great sign when the fans of the other team are thrilled with the return...

Again, we took a long position. They took a short position on the player. This could be just the beginning of a player breaking out to elite status. Or not. 

 

Imagine Rathbone turned into a 20 min+ top line NHL D man and was having a career year. Would we be happy to dump him for a conditional 1st and 2nd ? I dont think so. We'd want a roster player and maybe a prospect too.

[MaxVerstappen33]

The whole hockey media is saying that we overpaid or at least paid top dollar.  Even the eastern guys. But I am not so sure that they are right. 

 

The Rathbone scenario above suggests to me that we didn't overpay. He was only drafted a year later than Hroneck. This fanbase would demand the moon for a developed and successful 20 minute a night Rathbone. We'd want a Horvat type return. High pick, prospect and roster player. But we paid no roster player and no prospect. 

 

The fact that the Islanders pick could roll over to 2024 does devalue it too. Because it is 1 further year out in the future. So if Detroit gets it to roll over next year instead of taking it this year, that's another year added onto the process before any return is felt.

[WHL rocks]

I watched Yzerman's post trade deadline press conference. 

 

Hronek wasn't offered on the trade market. Seraveli said this on 650 previously and Y confirmed it.

 

Canucks targeted Horonek and approached DET asking for him. 

 

So this isn't like the Canucks seeing something they liked on the market and made an impulsive purchase. They thought it through targeted a player and approached the team with an offer. 

[aGENT]

2 minutes ago, MaxVerstappen33 said:

The whole hockey media is saying that we overpaid or at least paid top dollar.  Even the eastern guys. But I am not so sure that they are right. 

 

The Rathbone scenario above suggests to me that we didn't overpay. He was only drafted a year later than Hroneck. This fanbase would demand the moon for a developed and successful 20 minute a night Rathbone. We'd want a Horvat type return. High pick, prospect and roster player. But we paid no roster player and no prospect. 

 

The fact that the Islanders pick could roll over to 2024 does devalue it too. Because it is 1 further year out in the future. So if Detroit gets it to roll over next year instead of taking it this year, that's another year added onto the process before any return is felt.

Yeah, I don't think we overpaid at all. That's silly. Top 4 RHD with a good (offensive leaning) all around game, doesn't come cheap.

 

IMO, the only thing controversial about this trade is it's relation to where the Canucks are as an organization in their cycle, our cap space etc.

 

 

[5nothincanucksohno]

6 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Yeah, I don't think we overpaid at all. That's silly. Top 4 RHD with a good (offensive leaning) all around game, doesn't come cheap.

 

IMO, the only thing controversial about this trade is it's relation to where the Canucks are as an organization in their cycle, our cap space etc.

 

 

Yup playoffs or bust next year...we all know what happened to mgmt the last time that was the case. 

 

At least this group seems to be able to assess NHL players better...when they pay a higher price they get a legit player, and when the target a project they pay a lower price. Hopefully Podz and VK break out next year. Then we can simply focus on worrying about the cap.

 

[stawns]

1 hour ago, Jester13 said:

Gawd, I hope they can snag Livingstone. That would be a huge boost. Hey, what are your thoughts, gent, on Hronek's highlights looking so good, but a lot of Detroit fans saying he's a third pairing defenseman on a contending team and that Yzerman fleeced us?

He was Detroit's top dman this year

[JeremyCuddles]

4 minutes ago, WHL rocks said:

I watched Yzerman's post trade deadline press conference. 

 

Hronek wasn't offered on the trade market. Seraveli said this on 650 previously and Y confirmed it.

 

Canucks targeted Horonek and approached DET asking for him. 

 

So this isn't like the Canucks seeing something they liked on the market and made an impulsive purchase. They thought it through targeted a player and approached the team with an offer. 

Someone in this thread told me Stevie Y was trying to move his contract all year. Wild. As a Detroit fan myself, I have zero clue why he would. Hronek was outplaying Seider this season and this gave them a wicked 1-2 RHD punch that I actually really liked. This is a trade I don't really like for either side. The Canuck fan in me wants us to build draft capital and the Detroit fan in me really thought Hronek and Seider were a great RHD tandem.

 

It's a trade where they're going to need to replace Hronek (And trading him did not fill any of the holes they have in the roster, unless they would rather wait 3-4+ years for this 1st rounder to develop) and it's a trade where we are forced to hit more on draft day cause we have fewer picks to work with, or more accurately we don't have extra picks to use. It just feels weird for both sides. I trust Stevie Y more than I trust our management team though. So at least there's that. It's just weird that a team so heavy on LD traded one of their 2 legit top 4 RD and only got picks.

 

The only way I really like this is if they take Sandin-Pellika or Reinbacher in the draft. But like I said, they could be 3-5 years away from being legit top 4 guys. Of course I understand this isn't always the case. Some guys hit their stride sooner. Specifically offensive minded guys like Sandin-Pellika. It's just weird to trade Hronek before they even draft their replacement.

[stawns]

6 minutes ago, 5nothincanucksohno said:

Yup playoffs or bust next year...we all know what happened to mgmt the last time that was the case. 

 

At least this group seems to be able to assess NHL players better...when they pay a higher price they get a legit player, and when the target a project they pay a lower price. Hopefully Podz and VK break out next year. Then we can simply focus on worrying about the cap.

 

I don't think that's necessarily true.  I think they see a 2ish year timeline. I think if Demko stays healthy, they'll be in the mix. 

[DefCon1]

48 minutes ago, Sharpshooter said:

Retooling the rebuild. 

Doesn't make sense. You want some players that are young and promising to stay and become vets to teach younger players. Trading away players for picks which eventually become players that are valuable but you trade them again doesn't make sense. Yzerman is a good GM and did get a good return for Hronek but I wonder if he just developing players to trade for 1at and 2nd round picks? What's the end goal there? Because draft picks can take time to develop and not all are 100% guaranteed to become players like Hronek.

[The Lock]

1 hour ago, Jester13 said:

Gawd, I hope they can snag Livingstone. That would be a huge boost. Hey, what are your thoughts, gent, on Hronek's highlights looking so good, but a lot of Detroit fans saying he's a third pairing defenseman on a contending team and that Yzerman fleeced us?

I think it's important to consider how we look at some of our own players in order to make sense of it. I remember when Ehrhoff was here and people would complain about his defense a lot. You'd get some people saying he was a top 4 defenseman while other people saying he was a bottom pairing defenseman. Everyone's going to have different opinions, and I think this is especially the case when it comes to offensive defensemen where at certain points their defense could be a little better.

 

Even now, look at the varying opinions on Myers or OEL. I can't see it being much different in Detroit. At the end of the day, there are passionate people who want to think they're the expert on their team and will argue their opinions until they are blue in the face, logically or not.

Edited March 4, 2023 by The Lock

[MaxVerstappen33]

4 minutes ago, N7Nucks said:

Someone in this thread told me Stevie Y was trying to move his contract all year. Wild. As a Detroit fan myself, I have zero clue why he would. Hronek was outplaying Seider this season and this gave them a wicked 1-2 RHD punch that I actually really liked. This is a trade I don't really like for either side. The Canuck fan in me wants us to build draft capital and the Detroit fan in me really thought Hronek and Seider were a great RHD tandem.

 

It's a trade where they're going to need to replace Hronek (And trading him did not fill any of the holes they have in the roster, unless they would rather wait 3-4+ years for this 1st rounder to develop)

Why didn't Detroit ask for Rathbone too? Rutherford would have probably given him up. Maybe they could get him going. 

[Darius]

10 minutes ago, N7Nucks said:

Someone in this thread told me Stevie Y was trying to move his contract all year. Wild. As a Detroit fan myself, I have zero clue why he would. Hronek was outplaying Seider this season and this gave them a wicked 1-2 RHD punch that I actually really liked. This is a trade I don't really like for either side. The Canuck fan in me wants us to build draft capital and the Detroit fan in me really thought Hronek and Seider were a great RHD tandem.

 

It's a trade where they're going to need to replace Hronek (And trading him did not fill any of the holes they have in the roster, unless they would rather wait 3-4+ years for this 1st rounder to develop) and it's a trade where we are forced to hit more on draft day cause we have fewer picks to work with, or more accurately we don't have extra picks to use. It just feels weird for both sides. I trust Stevie Y more than I trust our management team though. So at least there's that. It's just weird that a team so heavy on LD traded one of their 2 legit top 4 RD and only got picks.

 

The only way I really like this is if they take Sandin-Pellika or Reinbacher in the draft. But like I said, they could be 3-5 years away from being legit top 4 guys. Of course I understand this isn't always the case. Some guys hit their stride sooner. Specifically offensive minded guys like Sandin-Pellika. It's just weird to trade Hronek before they even draft their replacement.

Frank Corrado (now an analsyt) has interesting take (at about 2:30 in) maybe some hard feelings over ice time ? It sounds more like a guess but he is puzzled as to why they would move him also.  From Yzerman's press conference it seems like the Canucks came to him and targeted Hronek - he really wasnt on the market.

 

 

At around 4 minute mark Yzerman talks about how they were not really looking to trade Hronek

 

 

Edited March 4, 2023 by Darius

[DefCon1]

55 minutes ago, Jester13 said:

His highlights look so good, and I'm thinking that any of his lowlights can be improved with help from Gonchar and Foote. Is it possible we fleeced Yzerman? 

Yzerman did get a good return though but it's confusing for their fans as well. It's similar to us trading Kuzmenko now for a conditional top 12 protected 1st and 2nd? Would you do it? I wouldn't do it that's for sure.

 

https://youtu.be/GKZJdaiJF84

Edited March 4, 2023 by DefCon1