[Trade] Red Wings trade Filip Hronek, 2023 4th-round pick to Canucks for conditional 2023 1st-round pick (NYI), 2023 2nd-round pick

[BCNate]

Just now, HKSR said:

And that's assuming NYI doesn't win a round in the playoffs, which isn't out of the realm of possibility.  Wouldn't bet against Sorokin... that's for sure.

The threat of this being a unprotected pick caused a pretty high level of panic.  Florida, Buffalo, Ottawa, Calgary all would need to pass them on PP%, I feel that is pretty unlikely at this stage.

[Elias Pettersson]

32 minutes ago, HKSR said:

And that's assuming NYI doesn't win a round in the playoffs, which isn't out of the realm of possibility.  Wouldn't bet against Sorokin... that's for sure.

Sorokin is going to be a Vezina trophy finalist.  I highly doubt that NYI miss the playoffs with Sorokin in the net.  It's the same with the Canucks.  If Demko is playing at a top level it is impossible for us to be a bottom feeder and a better chance we have a shot at a playoff spot.

 

Sorokin could also allow them to win a round as well.  You never know with goaltending...

[HKSR]

2 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Sorokin is going to be a Vezina trophy finalist.  I highly doubt that NYI miss the playoffs with Sorokin in the net.  It's the same with the Canucks.  If Demko is playing at a top level it is impossible for us to be a bottom feeder and a better chance we have a shot at a playoff spot.

 

Sorokin could also allow them to win a round as well.  You never know with goaltending...

Yeah, if the NYI get in, it'd be very interesting as we know Horvat tends to elevate his play in the post season.  They also have a very solid D core in front of a Vezina calibre goaltender.  NYI seems to be better built for playoff hockey than regular season IMO.

[Bell]

If the Isles make it in Horvat will be a beast for them

[Diamonds]

1 hour ago, BCNate said:

It is looking more and more like NYI are going to make the playoffs.  Detroit and Washington have fallen out of the race, and Ottawa/Buffalo are going to have to get pretty hot to keep pace as well. I think it is going to be 2 of Pittsburgh/FLA/NYI that get the wild cards.

 

I think this ends up being #16-18OA + #40-42 OA for Hronek + #110oa.  If Hronek plays as well with us as he did in Detroit this season, it is hard not to like that deal.  

I think the determining factor in this trade for me is going to be who's available for that 2nd. If the trade was just the NYI 1st for Hronek I think people would have less of an issue, but the high 2nd in a deep draft is another major component. 

 

Ultimately I think a lot of fans, including myself, are concerned because it reminds of recent history where Benning traded away 2nd round pick like candy for players like Linden Vey (or Forsling for Clendening). I do think Hronek is a better player than the guys Benning brought in but only time will tell if it was the right move.

[BCNate]

12 minutes ago, Diamonds said:

I think the determining factor in this trade for me is going to be who's available for that 2nd. If the trade was just the NYI 1st for Hronek I think people would have less of an issue, but the high 2nd in a deep draft is another major component. 

 

Ultimately I think a lot of fans, including myself, are concerned because it reminds of recent history where Benning traded away 2nd round pick like candy for players like Linden Vey (or Forsling for Clendening). I do think Hronek is a better player than the guys Benning brought in but only time will tell if it was the right move.

I'm not a fan of trading off 2nds at all, and do hope that we are able to get one back somehow.  With that said, the pick is most likely 40-42. it is really 50/50 whether you get a guy like Erik Cernak or a Cameron Morrison.

[HKSR]

1 minute ago, BCNate said:

I'm not a fan of trading off 2nds at all, and do hope that we are able to get one back somehow.  With that said, the pick is most likely 40-42. it is really 50/50 whether you get a guy like Erik Cernak or a Cameron Morrison.

I'd say it is worse than 50/50.  If it's 50/50, that would mean half of the 2nd round players come out being impact NHLers lol

[Pears]

1 hour ago, BCNate said:

It is looking more and more like NYI are going to make the playoffs.  Detroit and Washington have fallen out of the race, and Ottawa/Buffalo are going to have to get pretty hot to keep pace as well. I think it is going to be 2 of Pittsburgh/FLA/NYI that get the wild cards.

 

I think this ends up being #16-18OA + #40-42 OA for Hronek + #110oa.  If Hronek plays as well with us as he did in Detroit this season, it is hard not to like that deal.  

Regardless, the only way someone doesn’t like this trade is if they have a ridiculous agenda to push and can’t accept the fact the trades they did in GM mode in NHL 23 with sliders on easy are never gonna happen in real life. 

[Diamonds]

15 minutes ago, BCNate said:

I'm not a fan of trading off 2nds at all, and do hope that we are able to get one back somehow.  With that said, the pick is most likely 40-42. it is really 50/50 whether you get a guy like Erik Cernak or a Cameron Morrison.

Absolutely a 2nd rounder is no guarantee. If Hronek continues to play as well as he was in Detroit and can actually expedite our retool by 2 years then it is a huge win. But it's a real possibility that all of Bonk, Strbak, Akey, and Brzustewicz could be available at our 2nd round pick and all of them have the potential to make as big of an impact as Hronek. If Hronek struggles to keep his play up or find chemistry with a partner and one or multiple of them hits (in addition to whoever the 1st is) and we continue to be a mediocre franchise for the next 5+ years then this trade is going to be hard to live with.

 

I actually really like Hronek and was hoping he would be part of a return for Horvat in a Detroit deal, but it still remains to be seen whether this was the right move for where the Canucks currently are.

[steviewonder20]

3 hours ago, HKSR said:

The cap savings of $9,666,667 that you're referring to is the  difference between the base salary paid and the buyout cost.  For example, on the first row, it's the $10.5M minus the $2.4M in buyout cost, so $8M in savings for that first year.  $5.5M in the 2nd year, and so on.  Years 5 to 8 are all a negative savings (or a cost) of $2.4M to Aquilini.  The net savings to Aquilini is $9,666,667 over the 8 years. 

 

Cap hit impact from a hockey perspective is in the 2nd to last column.  There's a total cap hit over 8 years of $20.5M.

Yes, and that cap hit is lower than it would be by retaining him so there is a cap hit savings as I stated.

[Timråfan]

10 hours ago, Dazzle said:

It is an overpayment. It should've been either a 1st rounder or a 2nd, but not both.

When do you find a top 4 RHD for a 2nd that are 25 years old? 
Damn it, tip PA instantly if so because that is cheap, just a little above Schenn.

[Timråfan]

3 hours ago, HKSR said:

The cap savings of $9,666,667 that you're referring to is the  difference between the base salary paid and the buyout cost.  For example, on the first row, it's the $10.5M minus the $2.4M in buyout cost, so $8M in savings for that first year.  $5.5M in the 2nd year, and so on.  Years 5 to 8 are all a negative savings (or a cost) of $2.4M to Aquilini.  The net savings to Aquilini is $9,666,667 over the 8 years. 

 

Cap hit impact from a hockey perspective is in the 2nd to last column.  There's a total cap hit over 8 years of $20.5M.

So it means if we get a LHD for 1,2 mill for 8 years that can play OELs role we should buy him out.

Is OEL worth more than a 1,2 mill LHD we should keep him.

[Odd.]

Since the Horvat trade Isles have the 2nd best record in the NHL, next to Boston.

 

That pick has a chance to be in the 20’s.

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, steviewonder20 said:

Yes, and that cap hit is lower than it would be by retaining him so there is a cap hit savings as I stated.

I don't look at dead cap as cap savings.  I look at it as cap cost because you're paying that cap space for nothing.  If you add a comparable top 4 LHD, it'll be a $4m to $5m player.  Add that to the dead cap from an OEL buyout, and you'll be spending close to OEL's cap hit for 7 of those 8 years, and spending anywhere between $8.5M to $9M in those 2 years where the dead cap is over $4M.

[HKSR]

57 minutes ago, Timråfan said:

So it means if we get a LHD for 1,2 mill for 8 years that can play OELs role we should buy him out.

Is OEL worth more than a 1,2 mill LHD we should keep him.

So looking at it year by year:

 

If we feel OEL is now a 3rd pairing defenceman, a $1.2M LHD in your example, dead cap + new LHD cap hit for that 3rd pairing defenceman is equivalent to:

 

2023-24:  $147k + 1.2M = $1.3M

2024-25:  $2.4M + 1.2M = $3.6M

2025-26:  $4.8M + 1.2M = $6M

2026-27:  $4.8M + 1.2M = $6M

2027-28:  $2.1M + 1.2M = $3.3M

2028-29:  $2.1M + 1.2M = $3.3M

2029-30:  $2.1M + 1.2M = $3.3M

2030-31:  $2.1M + 1.2M = $3.3M

 

The thing is, I only look at 2023-24 to 2026-27 for cap savings since that's the remaining term for OEL.  We would save a good chunk next year, $3.6ish in 2025-26, but then the cap savings from buying out OEL is only $1.2M in 2025-26 and 2026-27.  The problem is we are hit with a $2.1M dead cap hit premium for a 3LHD for 4 years after that.  We basically cannot have a 3LHD for much less than $3.5M AAV for 4 years.  That could pose a significant problem when Petey and Hughes are likely right at the beginning of their prime years at that point.

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, Timråfan said:

So it means if we get a LHD for 1,2 mill for 8 years that can play OELs role we should buy him out.

Is OEL worth more than a 1,2 mill LHD we should keep him.

We could play Wolanin with Hronek for the next 8 years and that would take care of the buy out penalty for OEL...

[Dazzle]

10 hours ago, ShawnAntoski said:

For now, he still has 38 pts and the cost to acquire Hronek, did include a 1st round pick.  As a longtime Canuck fan, I REALLY want him to do well (even after he signs his retirement deal, after next season) but I am cautiously optimistic and I believe games are not played on paper cause no guarantee he will click with the team or not be oft injured: remember Schmidt or how about OEL, Dermot & Poolman ?   Like I said, nothing new from posters like you and it is not just me, that has this opinion of the trade.

 

Your are just playing word games to defend your post:  

 

"A 50+ point RHD who averages over 22 minutes a game and a 4th round pick for a 2nd?"  

 

If what you had posted had happened, we won't be having this discussion - but Yzerman OBVIOUSLY sold high on Hronek, for more lottery tickets in a deep draft & the more important cap flexibility.  Plus, based on your own projection: this will be his best year. 

A little bit funny because people discredited that same logic when it came to Horvat, citing that he had never put up that many points before

[Dazzle]

48 minutes ago, Odd. said:

Since the Horvat trade Isles have the 2nd best record in the NHL, next to Boston.

 

That pick has a chance to be in the 20’s.

Detroit got a really nice haul for Hronek, essentially because they were able to draft someone with their picks. In 2016 as well as earlier, we were absolutely horrific with drafting. We can't be making any excuses for that, regardless of who the GMs were. Gillis' drafting record really needs to be scrutinized for what it was - dreadful.

Edited March 9, 2023 by Dazzle

[cripplereh]

14 minutes ago, Dazzle said:

Detroit got a really nice haul for Hronek, essentially because they were able to draft someone with their picks. In 2016 as well as earlier, we were absolutely horrific with drafting. We can't be making any excuses for that, regardless of who the GMs were. Gillis' drafting record really needs to be scrutinized for what it was - dreadful.

Well with him now on the team, Johansson coming over and we sign one or two rhd from the NCAA we should be a top 15 right side D next year.Bearnit sure about but even if he is third D pairing we will be alright. 

 

QH at LD and do we keep OEL? 

 

If so then who is on the third pairing?

[thrago]

8 hours ago, HKSR said:

The point is, he is still worth a 30 goal 90 point 1C.  You wouldn't be able to convince me or many people that a week ago Pettersson was worth a 60 point 2C level return.  That's the dumb part about this argument. 

Ahh I see I misunderstood.

Edited March 9, 2023 by thrago