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Changing the draft lottery

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UnkNuk

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"Athletic" writer Sean McIndoe recently wrote an article about how to change the draft lottery based on an idea sent to him by a fan.

 

First, he would scrap the lottery balls.

 

Instead, what he proposes is that each non-playoff team be paired with a playoff team.  The better a playoff team does, the higher the draft pick the non-playoff team paired with it gets.

 

Ultimately, the non-playoff team paired with the eventual Stanley Cup winner would get the first overall draft pick.  The non-playoff team paired with the Stanley Cup loser would get the second overall pick.  And so on.

 

I like this idea.  Mainly because it would give the fans of the non-playoff teams something to root for during the playoffs.  Suppose, for instance, that this year the Canucks were paired with, say, the Dallas Stars.  Suddenly, the Dallas Stars playoff games would be of extreme interest for Canuck fans.

 

He goes into more detail in the article.  For instance, the pairings would be done in reverse order according to the non-playoff teams standing at the end of the season.  That is, the team with the worst record would be the first to choose which playoff team it wanted to be paired with.  Then the team with the second worst record would choose and so on.

 

The article is here:

 

https://theathletic.com/4384689/2023/04/07/nhl-draft-lottery-bill-daly/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288

 

Change the NHL Draft lottery? Here’s an idea so absurd it might be brilliant

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I don't like that idea...I would rather all the teams that don't make the playoffs have one ticket and a draw to determine the order they pick.All teams would have the same odds at the number one pick.This is fair and would eliminate tanking!!

 

Edited by goog16
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It would certainly increase excitement amoung non-playoff fanbases. It's a fun idea. For it to work, there would have to be an inverse ranking system of sorts (eg. team 32 & team 1, team 31 @ team 2 etc). And how do you seed the teams - is it league wide or conference?

 

As interesting of an idea as it is, I don't see it working in reality without some sort of fail safe to prevent the worst team in the league from picking 15th in the case of a first round playoff upset.

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1 minute ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

Everyone would want Boston, but imagine if Montreal got Boston.  You're a Habs fan... and you're supposed to root for Boston??  This is the stupidest idea I've heard - it's so completely North American and gimmicky.

To avoid this exact situation I think teams would have to be paired cross conference.

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1 minute ago, stawns said:

No offense, but that is a ridiculous idea.  The draft should be a 5 team lottery, that's it!  No more of these teams jumping 5+ spots into a lottery pick.

That would just make tanking worse. Could you imagine if only 5 teams had a shot at Bedard this year? Giving less teams a higher chance at Bedard just incentivizes tanking. There is a lot of parity in the low-mid standing teams so the odds should be more spread out. I like the current rule of no team advancing more than 10 spots.

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3 minutes ago, I.Am.Ironman said:

That would just make tanking worse. Could you imagine if only 5 teams had a shot at Bedard this year? Giving less teams a higher chance at Bedard just incentivizes tanking. There is a lot of parity in the low-mid standing teams so the odds should be more spread out. I like the current rule of no team advancing more than 10 spots.

themlottery, as it is, makes it worse because you have teams in early March, who are barely outof the playoff picture, cleaning house and tanking hard.  Bottom 5 teams aren't tankers, they're just not very good.  If anything, it makes tanking less likely, imo.

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1 hour ago, Wilbur said:

Fine and dandy if we were paired with the Dallas Stars, but what if we were paired with the Flames or the Leafs? :sick:

Well, I don't know about you but If Calgary winning the Stanley Cup meant that we get Bedard, I'm cheering for Calgary.   ::D

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2 hours ago, UnkNuk said:

"Athletic" writer Sean McIndoe recently wrote an article about how to change the draft lottery based on an idea sent to him by a fan.

 

First, he would scrap the lottery balls.

 

Instead, what he proposes is that each non-playoff team be paired with a playoff team.  The better a playoff team does, the higher the draft pick the non-playoff team paired with it gets.

 

Ultimately, the non-playoff team paired with the eventual Stanley Cup winner would get the first overall draft pick.  The non-playoff team paired with the Stanley Cup loser would get the second overall pick.  And so on.

 

I like this idea.  Mainly because it would give the fans of the non-playoff teams something to root for during the playoffs.  Suppose, for instance, that this year the Canucks were paired with, say, the Dallas Stars.  Suddenly, the Dallas Stars playoff games would be of extreme interest for Canuck fans.

 

He goes into more detail in the article.  For instance, the pairings would be done in reverse order according to the non-playoff teams standing at the end of the season.  That is, the team with the worst record would be the first to choose which playoff team it wanted to be paired with.  Then the team with the second worst record would choose and so on.

 

The article is here:

 

https://theathletic.com/4384689/2023/04/07/nhl-draft-lottery-bill-daly/?source=weeklyemail&campaign=602288

 

Change the NHL Draft lottery? Here’s an idea so absurd it might be brilliant

My only concern would be that teams would forever be stuck in the basement.

We have seen more teams outside the top 5 win a cup in the last 12 years and probably about the same for the other team appear in the finals.

 

 

The Stanley cup is the hardest championship to win in all sports. I don’t think those odds would help teams in the basement in any way shape or form.


Recent President trophy winners, imagine being last place in 2018-19 and taking TBL and getting swept first round.
or taking COL in 2020-21 and then some team that placed 17-20th who is stuck with MTL winds up with the 2nd overall pick and whoever took 8th place TBL gets 1OA.

 

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I personally think the best ways to fix it based on the issues seen over the last 10 years or so ( especially those affecting the Canucks) 

 

1. Raise the draft age. Allowing players to develop further and somewhat reducing the risk associated with high picks is a surefire way of seeing teams that pick high improve their team in a more immediate time frame. Covid was the perfect time to have done this - ride the 19 draft class out a year ( or even two !! ) and then reset in 22 - but Noooooo. Higher draft age is better for players, fans and teams. Of course ELC system would have to change but I think its totally doable without the players taking a loss.  

2. Add 'Bad Luck Protection' which has become commonplace in many gambling circles.  Every year you don't win the lottery you were entered into you receive a boost to your odds the next time you have a lottery pick. Details around when it resets, how it caps / increase, how it tie breaks etc are all up for debate. 

 

3. Draft lottery order is decided by a panel based on statistical analysis and expert opinion on strength of the roster, pool etc. The reasoning is then published and possibly can even be challenged. This could possibly help combat 'tanking', over ripening etc and make the overall picture fairer based on the strength of the draft class and the needs of organizations. On paper, this sounds like it could solve a lot of problems - but the fairness of the selection process would always be up for debate. 

I think personally 1 and 2 are the most logical next steps based on what is common in other industries and sports. Of course it would also have made our lives better over the last 10 years too, so not a completely unbiased approach.  That being said I think statistically we have now been screwed the most by the new Draft Lottery - Thanks Oilers

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