Hairy Kneel Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 Elias Pettersson Posted February 22 So I finally played around with the NHL lottery draft simulator. It basically told me what I already knew. It’s a crapshoot and whether you finish 2nd or 6th from the bottom the odds of getting the 1st or 2nd pick aren’t much different. The only way to seriously increase your odds is to finish dead last. Here is the deal. I tried the lottery 20 times for 4 separate teams. The Canucks who are 6th, Chicago who are 3rd, Columbus who are 2nd and Anaheim who are 1st. These are the results from 20 tries. Vancouver - 1st place once, 2nd place twice Chicago - 1st place twice, 2nd place twice Columbus - 1st place once, 2nd place once Anaheim - 1st place 4 times, 2nd place 5 times So as you can see, there wasn’t much of a difference between Vancouver, Chicago and Columbus. As a matter of fact, Vancouver landed in the 1st or 2nd spot one extra time than Columbus. However, there was a huge difference between Vancouver/Chicago/Columbus and Anaheim. Bottom line. Unless we finish dead last the chances of getting Bedard or even Fantilli aren’t much different whether you are 2nd last or 6th. Looking back, like EP states we were so dam close before the powers that be untanked us. smh 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rackdawg Posted June 27, 2023 Share Posted June 27, 2023 On 5/8/2023 at 6:23 PM, Ghostsof1915 said: Knowing the Canucks. Michkov and Reinbacher will be available at 11. And the Canucks will draft Michkov. I'd be happy as hell if they did that.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
5nothincanucksohno Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/ This mock draft now has Dvorsky, Reinbacher, Danielson, and Willander in the top ten...if this happens the Canucks should definitely consider trading back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ilduce39 Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 (edited) 8 minutes ago, 5nothincanucksohno said: http://www.mynhldraft.com/NHL-Mock-Draft/ This mock draft now has Dvorsky, Reinbacher, Danielson, and Willander in the top ten...if this happens the Canucks should definitely consider trading back. I hate to say it, but if history serves it’s believable that teams will reach the D and C and leave us a glut of wingers at 11. I guess that has its own benefits but beyond Michkov I’m really hoping it doesn’t play out that way. If it does and teams are still willing to trade up, we absolutely should trade down. Edited June 28, 2023 by ilduce39 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Goose Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 4 hours ago, SilentSam said: this really changed my perspective on DS. Just watching tape I liked him but had no clue about the type of person he is. Now, Im having a hard time choosing btw him and Wallinder. Like a really hard time. Canucks just need to draft both. Get r done PA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
higgyfan Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, Angry Goose said: this really changed my perspective on DS. Just watching tape I liked him but had no clue about the type of person he is. Now, Im having a hard time choosing btw him and Wallinder. Like a really hard time. Canucks just need to draft both. Get r done PA I think it would be a no-brainer if he was an RD as they seem to have more value. Regardless, he is looking like a great pick if they can land him. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maddogy Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 24 minutes ago, Angry Goose said: this really changed my perspective on DS. Just watching tape I liked him but had no clue about the type of person he is. Now, Im having a hard time choosing btw him and Wallinder. Like a really hard time. Canucks just need to draft both. Get r done PA He is a safer pick than Wallinder in terms of their floors. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angry Goose Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 (edited) 39 minutes ago, Maddogy said: He is a safer pick than Wallinder in terms of their floors. Im not so sure about that. Wallinder playing in the NCAA is a great development path. He plays a very NHL projectable game imo. Simashev says he wants to be a better defender-that type of development would bode much better on the smaller ice. He will have to make adjustments once he comes over. But he is talented so Im not too worried about it. Either way I see both being future NHLrs. Might even be splitting hairs between the two when all is said and done, other than LH/RH Edited June 28, 2023 by Angry Goose 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-DLC- Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 On 6/26/2023 at 1:22 PM, Rackdawg said: Oliver Moore.. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jyu Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 17 hours ago, Hairy Kneel said: Elias Pettersson Posted February 22 So I finally played around with the NHL lottery draft simulator. It basically told me what I already knew. It’s a crapshoot and whether you finish 2nd or 6th from the bottom the odds of getting the 1st or 2nd pick aren’t much different. The only way to seriously increase your odds is to finish dead last. Here is the deal. I tried the lottery 20 times for 4 separate teams. The Canucks who are 6th, Chicago who are 3rd, Columbus who are 2nd and Anaheim who are 1st. These are the results from 20 tries. Vancouver - 1st place once, 2nd place twice Chicago - 1st place twice, 2nd place twice Columbus - 1st place once, 2nd place once Anaheim - 1st place 4 times, 2nd place 5 times So as you can see, there wasn’t much of a difference between Vancouver, Chicago and Columbus. As a matter of fact, Vancouver landed in the 1st or 2nd spot one extra time than Columbus. However, there was a huge difference between Vancouver/Chicago/Columbus and Anaheim. Bottom line. Unless we finish dead last the chances of getting Bedard or even Fantilli aren’t much different whether you are 2nd last or 6th. Looking back, like EP states we were so dam close before the powers that be untanked us. smh We almost had it! I tried the lottery simulator 5 times and Canucks came up 1st twice while Chicago only came up once. I would even take it one step further and say that even if you finish dead last, there aren't much difference when it comes to winning the lottery to finishing say 2nd or 11th. It's a lottery, anyone can win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gurn Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 27 minutes ago, jyu said: there aren't much difference when it comes to winning the lottery to finishing say 2nd or 11th. https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 On 6/26/2023 at 9:50 PM, Rick_theRyper said: If we're taking Sim we can probably trade down, slight risk but I think he's there 15+ The last rank I read had him at 30! There's also a good chance he gets taken in the top 10. He is all over this draft and I really don't see him dropping out of the top 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 23 hours ago, billabong said: Benson is the guy who might fall he’s the guy I HOPE is gone by 11 because I don’t wish that kind of decision on the Canucks, that’s not an easy one. Our last 3 1st round picks would be wingers (lekkermaki and podz) if I’m not mistaken Obviously, we need a C or RHD but if benson is at 11 I think you’d have to take him unfortunately… He could easily easily easily transition to C. He plays like a center already it just depends on if you think his size prevents him from playing C (in my opinion it doesn't). He has also stated he's open to playing C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 19 hours ago, SilentSam said: Bums me out he was not interviewed. He should be top 2 on our draft board. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 15 hours ago, Angry Goose said: this really changed my perspective on DS. Just watching tape I liked him but had no clue about the type of person he is. Now, Im having a hard time choosing btw him and Wallinder. Like a really hard time. Canucks just need to draft both. Get r done PA In my opinion they are very similarly defensively. Simashev is better in my opinion defensively, but has a plethora of raw tools that Wallinder doesn't have. Simashev is an elite skater and has size advantage (both players use their size well). Offensively Simashev has a way higher ceiling as he's more creative with the puck and has better hands. Wallinder has a very simple offensive game but a better shot (not elite, just that Simashev's shot is poor). Honestly it's not even a comparison. Both are too close defensively but Simashev just has more tools so it's a no brainer for me to choose him over Wallinder if going head to head for a pick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 14 hours ago, Angry Goose said: Im not so sure about that. Wallinder playing in the NCAA is a great development path. He plays a very NHL projectable game imo. Simashev says he wants to be a better defender-that type of development would bode much better on the smaller ice. He will have to make adjustments once he comes over. But he is talented so Im not too worried about it. Either way I see both being future NHLrs. Might even be splitting hairs between the two when all is said and done, other than LH/RH The thing is that although both guys are good along the walls (very important for the NHL game) Simashev is elite in knowing when to use his body vs stick and Wallinder tends to use body a lot more in situations that shouldn't call for it (could be easily coached out). With Simashev's edgework he's able to stay on top of guys in an elite fashion. You can't get away from the guy. If you're overly shifty he either sticks it away or pins you. If you wanna go around him he guides really well with his stick. This is in my opinion the best aspect of his game and that's why he will be successful at the NHL game. Not to mention the guy is the best defender one on one in the entire draft bar none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick_theRyper Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, MikeyD said: There's also a good chance he gets taken in the top 10. He is all over this draft and I really don't see him dropping out of the top 15. Yeah it's hard to say, he has been all over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SilentSam Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, MikeyD said: Bums me out he was not interviewed. He should be top 2 on our draft board. I wonder if it’s to not attract more attention to our own interest him. let’s just hope everyone else goes before him. We need more physically skilled players, The contrary is a skilled player with little physicality or a physical player with little skills. Players like what Simi will become are the War horses that carry you into playoffs, and on further for battle because they come with all the attributes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MikeyD Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 (edited) I've got a really bad feeling about tonight. I think we are gonna have a home run swing at 2 out of the 3 prospects I really like (Benson, Simashev and Moore in that order) and we will end up drafting somebody with tools but not a high ceiling or possibly high impact player. I doubt Smith and Leonard will be there. I have a bad feeling we will end up with Danielson or Willander, and in my opinion Benson and Moore are better defensively than Danielson with much higher ceilings offensively and Simashev is just a way better prospect than Wallinder. Moore is very very raw but you're guaranteed a third liner that can PK. If that kid figures out how to match his processing with his skating he is gonna be the biggest steal of the draft bar none. Danielson isn't bad, but I don't view him in the top 11. Has the tools but has a tendency similar to Barlow to lack patience and just throw pucks at the net as opposed to waiting for a better play. They make a lot of low percentage plays but also have the ability to make the high percentage play which makes them a bit frustrating to watch. I actually like him as a prospect but I'm certain somebody better will be available for us. Edit: also I always have bad and good feelings when it comes to drafts with us and I'm usually wrong most of the time (most of the time I feel good going into the draft and then get disappointed) so hopefully this negative feeling is actually good! Edited June 28, 2023 by MikeyD 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jaimito Posted June 28, 2023 Share Posted June 28, 2023 PA cant miss on this one. Hoping for some good luck like we got for EP and QH 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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