[Rumour] Dahlin Close to Signing Extension in Buffalo

[Gawdzukes]

1 hour ago, Coconuts said:

I'll be surprised if Pettersson extends this summer at all, more than likely his agent will want to see what next offseason's incoming cap jump looks like. Only way I see it getting done is if management pays high in advance to reflect that incoming jump. 

 

10M is likely a pipe dream. 

 

Yeah I would agree. I think they wait too ... although there is a chance of injury or his point totals go down. I don't see his performance dropping at all but who knows what we're in for this year. It's definitely easier to negotiate when you actually have the cap increase to base it off of. I'm hoping it gets done for $11 or less but who knows.

[-AJ-]

Almost certainly worth $10M. Was at least a top 5 D in the League this year. 

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Hughes has already had 9 Norris trophy votes in his career, Dahlin has had zero.  They are both getting lots of votes this year.  Hughes defence has improved greatly from last year when he received 9 votes.  He had more points than Dahlin this year, better +/-, played more minutes on the PK.  Hughes is 49th in on ice expected GAA, Dahlin is 115th.  Hughes is 113 in on ice high danger shot attempts, Dahlin is at 98.  

 

They are closer than you think...

Perhaps they are, and that's probably good enough for Hughes to get a nomination or two down the road.  But beating out Makar and Fox?  That's also assuming nobody comes up from behind him... like his own brother.

[-AJ-]

3 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Hughes has already had 9 Norris trophy votes in his career, Dahlin has had zero.  They are both getting lots of votes this year.  Hughes defence has improved greatly from last year when he received 9 votes.  He had more points than Dahlin this year, better +/-, played more minutes on the PK.  Hughes is 49th in on ice expected GAA, Dahlin is 115th.  Hughes is 113 in on ice high danger shot attempts, Dahlin is at 98.  

 

They are closer than you think...

They are probably closer than some think, but I would agree with some that Hughes is a #5-10 guy in the league, whereas Dahlin is a bonafide top 3 right now. 

 

That said, although Hughes lags behind defensively, that's not to say that he's bad defensively. In fact, I would argue that at minimum he's average defensively and arguably even a bit above average. However, when the bar you're setting is Norris level, you need to be incredible at both offense and defense. Both are #1 D in the league and both will get a considerable number of Norris votes, but Hughes won't be a finalist unless he either scores 90+ points or gets even better defensively. Dahlin is already at that level.

[Warhippy]

18 minutes ago, -AJ- said:

They are probably closer than some think, but I would agree with some that Hughes is a #5-10 guy in the league, whereas Dahlin is a bona-fide top 3 right now. 

 

That said, although Hughes lags behind defensively, that's not to say that he's bad defensively. In fact, I would argue that at minimum he's average defensively and arguably even a bit above average. However, when the bar you're setting is Norris level, you need to be incredible at both offense and defense. Both are #1 D in the league and both with get a considerable number of Norris votes, but Hughes won't be a finalist unless he either scores 90+ points or gets even better defensively. Dahlin is already at that level.

It's like the difference between scott stevens and scott neidermeyer.

 

Both legendary defencemen, but one was a better puck mover and one was a better defender.  Both were legends.

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

42 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

It's like the difference between scott stevens and scott neidermeyer.

 

Both legendary defencemen, but one was a better puck mover and one was a better defender.  Both were legends.

Funny enough, nobody encapsulates the dead puck era better than Scott Stevens.  And funny enough, it was Niedermayer who won the Norris, not Stevens.

 

But I think it's a poor comparison.  Dahlin is not Scott Stevens.  His play just massively improved this year, in every way but especially on defence.  Hard to argue Hughes is a much better attacker when he's scored 3 more points.  If Dahlin didn't play hurt late in the season, he probably would've outscored Hughes and gotten a legit Norris nomination.  Perhaps Hughes moves the puck better but he's not known to have a great shot.  A Norris-level offensive D-man needs to have a good shot to win the award.  At this point, Dahlin is just more of a complete player, and I think this upcoming contract will reflect that.  It's the difference between... top 3 and top 10.

[Nuxfanabroad]

When all is said & done, Dahlin will prob be seen as a Potvin/Bourque hybrid. I'd rather start a new team with this kid, over a young Erik Karlsson

[R3aL]

5 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Hughes is not Dahlin.  Love him but there's a serious drop off in defensive acumen between them.  Hughes dumps points on the stat lines for sure but I don't think hughes gets this contract outside of anything that isn't just a panic signing

that’s a hot take mate

[Warhippy]

1 hour ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

Funny enough, nobody encapsulates the dead puck era better than Scott Stevens.  And funny enough, it was Niedermayer who won the Norris, not Stevens.

 

But I think it's a poor comparison.  Dahlin is not Scott Stevens.  His play just massively improved this year, in every way but especially on defence.  Hard to argue Hughes is a much better attacker when he's scored 3 more points.  If Dahlin didn't play hurt late in the season, he probably would've outscored Hughes and gotten a legit Norris nomination.  Perhaps Hughes moves the puck better but he's not known to have a great shot.  A Norris-level offensive D-man needs to have a good shot to win the award.  At this point, Dahlin is just more of a complete player, and I think this upcoming contract will reflect that.  It's the difference between... top 3 and top 10.

I am not comparing dahlin to stevens.  Don't need to be literal.

 

it's a comparison between the types of defensemen two players can be while still being amazing at what they do.  Not a direct comparison

[Warhippy]

33 minutes ago, R3aL said:

that’s a hot take mate

Show me where I am wrong my dude.

 

Dahlin leads in everything but points and did so on Sabres teams that were somehow even worse than vancouver in the same amount of time as hughes.  more blocks, hits, takeaways and has been healthier.  Plays more on the pk and in all around situations and is the better 5v5 player.  Defensively dahlin is absolutely more versatile and better right now than Hughes by the numbers.

[boziffous]

31 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

Show me where I am wrong my dude.

 

Dahlin leads in everything but points and did so on Sabres teams that were somehow even worse than vancouver in the same amount of time as hughes.  more blocks, hits, takeaways and has been healthier.  Plays more on the pk and in all around situations and is the better 5v5 player.  Defensively dahlin is absolutely more versatile and better right now than Hughes by the numbers.

Hughes had 56 takeaways this season. Dahlin had 45 takeaways. Also of note is that Hughes had 45 giveaways while Dahlin had 61 giveaways.

 

Hughes has played more games over the past 4 seasons than Dahlin at 278 to 273.

 

Hughes averaged 1:19 per game on the PK this season. Dahlin averaged 1:17 per game on the PK. Hughes had a goals against of 7.6 per 60 PK minutes. Dahlin had a goals against of 8.3 per 60 PK minutes.

 

Hughes had a +/- of +15 and an expected +/- of +10. Dahlin had a +/- of +12 and an expected +/- of +7.

 

Hughes had a defensive point share of 4.8. Dahlin had a defensive point share of 4.2.

 

 

[Guest]

7 minutes ago, boziffous said:

Hughes had 56 takeaways this season. Dahlin had 45 takeaways. Also of note is that Hughes had 45 giveaways while Dahlin had 61 giveaways.

 

Hughes has played more games over the past 4 seasons than Dahlin at 278 to 273.

 

Hughes averaged 1:19 per game on the PK this season. Dahlin averaged 1:17 per game on the PK. Hughes had a goals against of 7.6 per 60 PK minutes. Dahlin had a goals against of 8.3 per 60 PK minutes.

 

Hughes had a +/- of +15 and an expected +/- of +10. Dahlin had a +/- of +12 and an expected +/- of +7.

 

Hughes had a defensive point share of 4.8. Dahlin had a defensive point share of 4.2.

 

 

I suspect that Dahlin has had tougher matchups then Hughes, but I don't have any proof beyond watching a few Sabres games and all the Canucks games except for two-three. 

 

I'd be interested to see quality of competition numbers. 

[canuck73_3]

Staying 8 plus years in Buffalo? Brave man. 

[-AJ-]

1 hour ago, boziffous said:

Hughes had 56 takeaways this season. Dahlin had 45 takeaways. Also of note is that Hughes had 45 giveaways while Dahlin had 61 giveaways.

 

Hughes has played more games over the past 4 seasons than Dahlin at 278 to 273.

 

Hughes averaged 1:19 per game on the PK this season. Dahlin averaged 1:17 per game on the PK. Hughes had a goals against of 7.6 per 60 PK minutes. Dahlin had a goals against of 8.3 per 60 PK minutes.

 

Hughes had a +/- of +15 and an expected +/- of +10. Dahlin had a +/- of +12 and an expected +/- of +7.

 

Hughes had a defensive point share of 4.8. Dahlin had a defensive point share of 4.2.

You know what, I was prepared to bring counterpoints to the table, but when I look myself at the numbers, you're not too far off.

 

Here are some of my thoughts:

 

1. On the takeaways/giveaway

- Good points. Hughes seems to drive possession better than Dahlin based on these metrics.

 

2. On the games number

- This is completely irrelevant when it comes to defensive ability IMO and shouldn't be considered.

 

3. On your PK metrics

- Totally valid. Not only did they play virtually the same amount on the PK, but Hughes did perform a little better.

 

4. +/-

- Simple, but relevant. I'm not aware of the expected +/- stat, so I can't comment on that

 

5. Point share

- I don't understand these metrics well enough to comment on them fully, but I do have some trust in Hockey-Reference's statistics.

 

 

In Dahlin's favour though is that he has significantly more blocked shots than Hughes while maintaining a better scoring chances for %.

 

I would still say that Dahlin is better defensively than Hughes, but the gap isn't nearly as large as I thought. The reality is that Dahlin was doing considerably better than Hughes for the vast majority of the year, but Dahlin trended down toward the end of the year and Hughes trended sharply upwards. The end result is that they're actually probably both very similar players, but Hughes gets the edge offensively and Dahlin gets the edge defensively.

 

In my year-end Norris rankings, I had Hughes at 7 and Dahlin at 6, so even when I did the in-depth analysis, I found them to be close.

[R3aL]

6 hours ago, Warhippy said:

Show me where I am wrong my dude.

 

Dahlin leads in everything but points and did so on Sabres teams that were somehow even worse than vancouver in the same amount of time as hughes.  more blocks, hits, takeaways and has been healthier.  Plays more on the pk and in all around situations and is the better 5v5 player.  Defensively dahlin is absolutely more versatile and better right now than Hughes by the numbers.

I just think the hot take is saying when Hughes signs his next contract if it’s in the 10 million range it would be a panic signing.

 

especially with the cap rising and to make it sound like the gap in player is astronomical when it isn’t huge. And to be honest there’s an argument to be had around it. And we won’t know if her the next 5 years who will be the better player of the 2.

 

Hughes gets slept on because he doesn’t have the big frame or defend in a way that we expect if #1 Dmen. But he’s an unbelievable player and when she’s on the ice our team has metrics similar to VGK and when he’s off the ice we are a bottom 3 team metric wise.   

 

4 hours ago, -AJ- said:

You know what, I was prepared to bring counterpoints to the table, but when I look myself at the numbers, you're not too far off.

 

Here are some of my thoughts:

 

1. On the takeaways/giveaway

- Good points. Hughes seems to drive possession better than Dahlin based on these metrics.

 

2. On the games number

- This is completely irrelevant when it comes to defensive ability IMO and shouldn't be considered.

 

3. On your PK metrics

- Totally valid. Not only did they play virtually the same amount on the PK, but Hughes did perform a little better.

 

4. +/-

- Simple, but relevant. I'm not aware of the expected +/- stat, so I can't comment on that

 

5. Point share

- I don't understand these metrics well enough to comment on them fully, but I do have some trust in Hockey-Reference's statistics.

 

 

In Dahlin's favour though is that he has significantly more blocked shots than Hughes while maintaining a better scoring chances for %.

 

I would still say that Dahlin is better defensively than Hughes, but the gap isn't nearly as large as I thought. The reality is that Dahlin was doing considerably better than Hughes for the vast majority of the year, but Dahlin trended down toward the end of the year and Hughes trended sharply upwards. The end result is that they're actually probably both very similar players, but Hughes gets the edge offensively and Dahlin gets the edge defensively.

 

In my year-end Norris rankings, I had Hughes at 7 and Dahlin at 6, so even when I did the in-depth analysis, I found them to be close.

i like how you looked at things with a fair and open mind. 
 

they are close right now. And their could be seasons where one performs better than the other but they are not far off from eachother and they have much different games to even compare. 
 

Hughes slow start was easy to explain with the flu and broken nose. The fact he got better as the season went on and with bigger minutes was very promising. He had an unreal season. And if he didn’t start the way he did he probably would have been a very serious Norris contender imo.
 

 

i just hate the narrative some fans share that he’s just a point generating dman that can’t defend. He’s such a special player, we are blessed to have him and I can’t wait to see what heights he can reach. 

[Elias Pettersson]

 

[Elias Pettersson]

[DeNiro]

Glad we got Hughes locked in. Bet they’re wishing they did the same with Dahlin right about now.

 

This shows the importance of locking in good young players coming off ELCs right away. 

[Elias Pettersson]

4 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

Glad we got Hughes locked in. Bet they’re wishing they did the same with Dahlin right about now.

 

This shows the importance of locking in good young players coming off ELCs right away. 

Buffalo has Thompson and Cozens locked in on really good long-term contracts, so they can probably afford to pay Dahlin this type of money.  Canucks are lucky that Hughes is locked up for 4 more years.  Unfortunately, Petey is gonna get paid.  If Dahlin is at $10.5 million, then Petey is probably gonna come in at $12 million, especially if he has another 100 point season.

 

Owen Power is also going to get paid.  Buffalo would be smart to lock him up on an 8 year deal after his ELC contract expires...

[Goal:thecup]

Good deal; Dahlin is for real, real good.