Olli Juolevi | #48 | D

[aGENT]

7 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

So if 40ish point Dmen like Werenski and McAvoy were worth around $5 million AAV on a three year bridge, what’s the figure for a 60-70 point guy like Hughes?

 

I think my $7-8M (before the flat cap) is actually pretty conservative.
 

And my adjustment is also quite generous, as I doubt teams were actually banking on a 10% annual increase in cap when they made those deals (more like 5% probably, if they were at all responsible).

 

 

 

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

Like I've posted elsewhere, we have two solid, recent examples of what top D are signing on bridge deals. $6.75m for 6 years for Provorov and $4.9m for 3 years for McAvoy. Covid and flat cap are not going to improve on those numbers for Hughes.

 

He might get a slight bump from putting up more offense (if being less complete/lacking size compared to those two) but  that's the +/- framework right there. And some of that bump is going to 'catch' covid . Depending on term, I'd put him between $5. and $7m.

 

Petterson likely gets more as forwards seem to be getting more on bridge deals for whatever reason but I doubt it's over $8 (I'd in fact wager $7-$7.5 +/-). Less if it's a shorter, 3 year bridge. He doesn't yet have an 'Aho's' full aresenal/duties and again, people aren't grasping how much Covid is going to dampen prices IMO.

And again, Werenski, McAvoy, Provorov etc may put up less offense but they do provide more size and more complete play as well. That doesn't make them worth 2/3rds Hughes' value.

Edited July 18, 2020 by aGENT

[Noble 6]

4 hours ago, aGENT said:

Yes Toffoli at around $5, Markstrom $5.5-$6, Tanev around $4.5 etc.

 

I can't tell the future, so I have no idea who we lose in the ED, if Benning pushes someone etc. Hence the 'bunch of words'.

 

It's pretty easy to get a rough outline/do some guessing of what's going to happen though. IMO Virtanen is getting traded at some point. Stecher is likely gone this year or soon. Roussel is likely moved to help afford Toffoli (should be want to return). We're likely moving Benn. Retaining or buying out Baer and yes at some point, unless he retires, we likely need to pay to move Eriksson.

 

By simply re-signing those three UFAs to the amounts you specified (Markstrom at 5.75M, Toffoli at 5M and Tanev at 4.5M even though he could likely get more) we have about 1M in cap space with a roster of 18 players. This includes 1.7M in performance bonuses for Hughes and Pettersson and doesn't include the re-signing of any of our RFAs like Gaudette, Virtanen, Motte, Stetcher or MacEwan. That's a pretty bad spot to be in. 

 

Do you really believe we'll be able to dump all of Roussel, Benn and Eriksson this summer? That seems optimistic considering that, as you said, 26-27 other teams will be looking to dump similar players as well. We'd have to add some assets to get it done since we'd essentially be competing with the entire league to dump money. I'd like to hear more about how we'll be able to dump about 5 players over the next two years, re-sign our 3 UFAs for this year and maintain enough cap space to both sign Pettersson (10M ish) and Hughes (8M ish) next offseason while maintaining a competitive roster. Seems like an impossible task so I'd love to see how it'll happen. 

 

I'm not going to hold you to any of the dollar amount you propose, so just throw some realistic numbers out there. 5M for Toffoli and 5.75M for Markstrom seem about right, but 4.5M for Tanev seems a little low. Again, throw some numbers in for the next two years, I'd like to see how you think we'll navigate this.

[BCNate]

14 hours ago, Provost said:

Your math just doesn’t work out... next season AND the season after are huge pinch points for cap space.

 

You can’t just take Edler and Sutter’s salary and say they add up to the raises for Hughes and Petterson.

 

First off, they don’t.  Even on bridge deals you are likely looking at $6 million for Hughes and $7.5 for Petterson.  That is $11.5 million in raises.  You can’t count their current bonuses because we don’t have room for them under the cap now and they are going to get pushed... this year’s into next year and then next year’s into 2021-22.  That reduces our 2021-22 cap probably by $3.7 million or more depending on who else earns some bonus money... in addition to paying for their raises.

 

 You also have to replace Edler.  A top 4 is going to cost the same and we just don’t have a near equivalent replacement in the system.  Edler might sign a little cheaper and still give you top 4 minutes , but you can’t use math with just uses all his salary for raises.  Maybe as much as a $2 million reduction in his current salary.

 

So your post has to alter to...

 

Replace Sutter with en entry level kid for a savings of $3.5 million.  Reduce Edler’s salary by $2 million... for a grand total savings or $5.5 million after next season.

 

Then add minimum total raises for Hughes and Petterson of $11.5 million... and you are still in the hole by $6 million in YOUR example.

 

If you model out signings between now and then, we are hurting badly cap wise for at least two years... way worse than most teams who aren’t in that kind of crunch with all their young value players to sign and a bunch of bad value contracts in the way.  

Literally everyone coming off the books this year (aside from Domingue) is someone outperforming their current contract, and every one is them is due a raise.

You are ommitting the fact that Spooner's buyout, Baertschi, and Benn come off as well.  That is another 4+ mill in savings once you factor in an ELC (OJ, Rathbone, Rafferty) taking Benn's spot.  You also have a contract going to Seattle to make up the balance of your 6 mill.  They will be fine after this season.

[BCNate]

19 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

By simply re-signing those three UFAs to the amounts you specified (Markstrom at 5.75M, Toffoli at 5M and Tanev at 4.5M even though he could likely get more) we have about 1M in cap space with a roster of 18 players. This includes 1.7M in performance bonuses for Hughes and Pettersson and doesn't include the re-signing of any of our RFAs like Gaudette, Virtanen, Motte, Stetcher or MacEwan. That's a pretty bad spot to be in. 

 

Do you really believe we'll be able to dump all of Roussel, Benn and Eriksson this summer? That seems optimistic considering that, as you said, 26-27 other teams will be looking to dump similar players as well. We'd have to add some assets to get it done since we'd essentially be competing with the entire league to dump money. I'd like to hear more about how we'll be able to dump about 5 players over the next two years, re-sign our 3 UFAs for this year and maintain enough cap space to both sign Pettersson (10M ish) and Hughes (8M ish) next offseason while maintaining a competitive roster. Seems like an impossible task so I'd love to see how it'll happen. 

 

I'm not going to hold you to any of the dollar amount you propose, so just throw some realistic numbers out there. 5M for Toffoli and 5.75M for Markstrom seem about right, but 4.5M for Tanev seems a little low. Again, throw some numbers in for the next two years, I'd like to see how you think we'll navigate this.\

Stecher will not be back, Virtanen, Gaudette, MacEwan are not in line for significant raises on bridge deals.  Motte is an expendable asset if he pushes for too much, although I'd love t see him back. Now is the time for Rathbone, Rafferty, Brisebois, OJ, Lind, Potentially Hoglander to push for roster spots.  The youth movement has to happen now, it is not even an option.

[aGENT]

15 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

By simply re-signing those three UFAs to the amounts you specified (Markstrom at 5.75M, Toffoli at 5M and Tanev at 4.5M even though he could likely get more) we have about 1M in cap space with a roster of 18 players. This includes 1.7M in performance bonuses for Hughes and Pettersson and doesn't include the re-signing of any of our RFAs like Gaudette, Virtanen, Motte, Stetcher or MacEwan. That's a pretty bad spot to be in. 

 

Do you really believe we'll be able to dump all of Roussel, Benn and Eriksson this summer? That seems optimistic considering that, as you said, 26-27 other teams will be looking to dump similar players as well. We'd have to add some assets to get it done since we'd essentially be competing with the entire league to dump money. I'd like to hear more about how we'll be able to dump about 5 players over the next two years, re-sign our 3 UFAs for this year and maintain enough cap space to both sign Pettersson (10M ish) and Hughes (8M ish) next offseason while maintaining a competitive roster. Seems like an impossible task so I'd love to see how it'll happen. 

 

I'm not going to hold you to any of the dollar amount you propose, so just throw some realistic numbers out there. 5M for Toffoli and 5.75M for Markstrom seem about right, but 4.5M for Tanev seems a little low. Again, throw some numbers in for the next two years, I'd like to see how you think we'll navigate this.

Who knows what/when with Eriksson?

 

We don't need to 'dump' Roussel. I'm suggesting moving him because he's in fact saleable.

 

Benn, yes I think we'll find a taker. I just don't expect it to return anything. Maybe even cost a downgrade of a pick etc.

 

I also expect we may be moving on from Stecher and Virtanen off season/soon.

 

Pettersson and Hughes aren't going to get that much, that's already been covered in the thread.

 

$4.5m for an oft inured/60 game, wrong side of 30 D who gets to play with Hughes under a covid economy is plenty if he wants to stay here.

 

Motte, Macewan and Gaudette will get minimal raises (say $1.1, $1 and $1.5 +/- respectively).

 

You're going to 'hold me to it'...? Ok 

 

 

[Nucker 67]

It would be nice if more Canucks fans embraced Juolevi. It has taken a long time for him to get to the show, and he's still trying, but you can't blame him for a few bad injuries, which required extensive rehab. It's disappointing that he hasn't been able to make the team yet, but he's not a disappointment. He's battled hard to get healthy and now he's here to earn a spot.

 

Jake, on the other hand, is a pretty good player, but is a disappointment off the ice. Did he learn anything from the Sedins?  

 

Juolevi is healthy now. He's a smart, reliable Dman, and he will be an important part of the success of the Canucks down the road. I can't wait to see him play. 

[Goal:thecup]

2 hours ago, aGENT said:

But did he look as good as Virtanen? 

Maybe sit Virtanen and dress Juolevi as a 7th D/13th F?

[MrCanuck94]

 

[MrCanuck94]

This will be great for his confidence and knowing how far he is from playing with the big club.

 

Edited July 19, 2020 by MrCanuck94

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

2 minutes ago, aGENT said:

 

And again, Werenski, McAvoy, Provorov etc may put up less offense but they do provide more size and more complete play as well. That doesn't make them [worth] 2/3rds Hughes.

I think it probably does, actually. 

 

Looking at some of the models (like Evolving Wild), those guys you mentioned were predicted to get deals in the range of 6.5-7M for long term (6-7 years), or something around 5M on a bridge.

 

Their contracts ended up very close to the models (as did most of the contracts in recent models).

 

I can’t find a link to public info for Hughes’ extension projections, but I’ve seen him regularly discussed in the 9M+ range (for long term extensions) citing those same models.

 

We don’t really have any comparables for Quinn Hughes. All the guys you mention are lesser value IMO. I really think anything under $6 million AAV on a bridge deal for Hughes is an absolute “start the car” level steal.

 

Even with COVID-19 and a flat cap, I think we should at least be prepared to see a 3-year bridge deal for Hughes (assuming he doesn’t somehow regress terribly next season) totally something in the eight figures and starting with a 2.

 

Hopefully it’ll come in a little less than that, but I’m not counting on it.
 

And neither should the Canucks, really. Pat Brisson is definitely not going to take it easy on them. Not that he has much of a hammer in a 10.2(c) negotiation, but I still expect to an agent like Brisson get Hughes something significantly higher than what was given to Werenski, McAvoy, etc.

 

Certainly hope you’re right, though. Hughes extended at $5 million AAV would be the discount of discounts IMO. If that happens, Huggy should eat and drink free at every establish in town (if he doesn’t already) and JB would probably deserve a statue.  

Happy to continue the conversation further, but this being the Juolevi thread, maybe let’s take it over to the Hughes thread and if you (or anyone else) wants a reply, just @ me.

[Noble 6]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

Who knows what/when with Eriksson?

 

We don't need to 'dump' Roussel. I'm suggesting moving him because he's in fact saleable.

 

Benn, yes I think we'll find a taker. I just don't expect it to return anything. Maybe even cost a downgrade of a pick etc.

 

I also expect we may be moving on from Stecher and Virtanen off season/soon.

 

Pettersson and Hughes aren't going to get that much, that's already been covered in the thread.

 

$4.5m for an oft inured/60 game, wrong side of 30 D who gets to play with Hughes under a covid economy is plenty if he wants to stay here.

 

Motte, Macewan and Gaudette will get minimal raises (say $1.1, $1 and $1.5 +/- respectively).

 

You're going to 'hold me to it'...? Ok 

 

 

 

I specifically said I won't hold you to it. 

 

Can you please explain why Roussel is "saleable?" As you said, there are ~26 teams that are in similar cap situations as us and they will be looking to dump similar contracts as well. What makes you so confident that Roussel will be an easy sell when there will be a lot of similar players/contracts on the market on only 3-5 teams that would be in a position to take them?

 

I think Gaudette could get around 2M - 2.5M on a deal. 

 

I also think your projections for Hughes and Pettersson are a bit low. Hughes played a decent amount of time against the other team's top lines this season and wasn't fully sheltered. He played effective defense even if he wasn't physical, which means he put up more points than McAvoy and Werenski while not sacrificing much defense if any at all compared to them. Werenski is strong, but I wouldn't say he's a physical player. Chabot is also a better comparable for both of them who signed for 8M on a long term deal and Hughes has been a bit better than him. For Pettersson, the best comparable is Eichel who signed after his second year. Compared to Eichel's first two years, Pettersson has scored at a higher rate and been healthier over that stretch. Eichel signed for 13.33% of the cap when it was at 75M. Using that as a baseline for Pettersson would put him at about 10.9M with an 81.5M cap, without considering that Pettersson could realistically ask for more. Unless the plan is simply not have enough cap space to lock our young franchise players up to long term deals if given the chance and be forced to sign them to bridge deals for better or worse, some moves will have to be made before that offseason. 

Edited July 19, 2020 by Horvat is a Boss

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

I specifically said I won't hold you to it. 

Sorry, must have miss read.

 

Quote

Can you please explain why Roussel is "saleable?" As you said, there are ~26 teams that are in similar cap situations as us and they will be looking to dump similar contracts as well. What makes you so confident that Roussel will be an easy sell when there will be a lot of similar players/contracts on the market on only 3-5 teams that would be in a position to take them?

Are there? He's one of the top 3rd liners in the league, was scoring at a near 2nd line pace last year and is an elite pest with tonnes of leadership who was highly sought after by multiple teams when we signed him. I don't see any problem.

 

Quote

 

I think Gaudette could get around 2M - 2.5M on a deal. 

I think he'll get a similar deal to Virtanen last deal. A little higher as he's shown better progression/commitment IMO.

 

Quote

 

I also think your projections for Hughes and Pettersson are a bit low. Hughes played a decent amount of time against the other team's top lines this season and wasn't fully sheltered. He played effective defense even if he wasn't physical, which means he put up more points than McAvoy and Werenski while not sacrificing much defense if any at all compared to them. Werenski is strong, but I wouldn't say he's a physical player. Chabot is also a better comparable for both of them who signed for 8M on a long term deal and Hughes has been a bit better than him.

Yeah, we and like 27 other teams won't be doing long term extensions like that for bridge players. Covid = new reality.

 

Quote

For Pettersson, the best comparable is Eichel who signed after his second year. Compared to Eichel's first two years, Pettersson has scored at a higher rate and been healthier over that stretch. Eichel signed for 13.33% of the cap when it was at 75M. Using that as a baseline for Pettersson would put him at about 10.9M with an 81.5M cap, without considering that Pettersson could realistically ask for more. Unless the plan is simply not have enough cap space to lock our young franchise players up to long term deals if given the chance and be forced to sign them to bridge deals for better or worse, some moves will have to be made before that offseason. 

See above.

[aGENT]

1 hour ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

I think it probably does, actually. 

 

Looking at some of the models (like Evolving Wild), those guys you mentioned were predicted to get deals in the range of 6.5-7M for long term (6-7 years), or something around 5M on a bridge.

 

Their contracts ended up very close to the models (as did most of the contracts in recent models).

 

I can’t find a link to public info for Hughes’ extension projections, but I’ve seen him regularly discussed in the 9M+ range (for long term extensions) citing those same models.

 

We don’t really have any comparables for Quinn Hughes. All the guys you mention are lesser value IMO. I really think anything under $6 million AAV on a bridge deal for Hughes is an absolute “start the car” level steal.

 

Even with COVID-19 and a flat cap, I think we should at least be prepared to see a 3-year bridge deal for Hughes (assuming he doesn’t somehow regress terribly next season) totally something in the eight figures and starting with a 2.

 

Hopefully it’ll come in a little less than that, but I’m not counting on it.
 

And neither should the Canucks, really. Pat Brisson is definitely not going to take it easy on them. Not that he has much of a hammer in a 10.2(c) negotiation, but I still expect to an agent like Brisson get Hughes something significantly higher than what was given to Werenski, McAvoy, etc.

 

Certainly hope you’re right, though. Hughes extended at $5 million AAV would be the discount of discounts IMO. If that happens, Huggy should eat and drink free at every establish in town (if he doesn’t already) and JB would probably deserve a statue.  

Happy to continue the conversation further, but this being the Juolevi thread, maybe let’s take it over to the Hughes thread and if you (or anyone else) wants a reply, just @ me.

$5m was my low end based on like a 1-2 year deal fyi. I'm not even anticipating something in the 6-8 year ranges as a remote possibility with covid. Us and like 27 other teams simply won't have the option.

 

Is he worth more? Yes. Is he worth worlds more in a depressed economy. No.

[Noble 6]

28 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Sorry, must have miss read.

 

Are there? He's one of the top 3rd liners in the league, was scoring at a near 2nd line pace last year and is an elite pest with tonnes of leadership who was highly sought after by multiple teams when we signed him. I don't see any problem.

 

I think he'll get a similar deal to Virtanen last deal. A little higher as he's shown better progression/commitment IMO.

 

Yeah, we and like 27 other teams won't be doing long term extensions like that for bridge players. Covid = new reality.

 

See above.

 

Off the top of my head, here are some other players that teams with cap space will likely be able to pursue:

 

Palat/Johnson/Killorn

Strome/Georgiev

Sundqvist/Bozak/Blais

Hinostroza

Bennett

Laughton/Raffl

Conolly/Acciari

Komorov/Ladd/Boychuk

Panik/Jensen

Johnsson/Kerfoot

Comeau/Cogliano

 

Some of those guys are cap dumps that will come with extra assets, some of those guys are younger than Roussel and some are just better players. This is not even close to a comprehensive list either. If any one of these guys aren't going to be moved, then someone else on their team will be. The 3-5 teams with space will have plenty of options as the buyers and it'll be tough for the Canucks to stand out unless they make it worthwhile for them. Not to mention any UFAs that will be available. 

 

If we're fine with not having the option of signing a long term deal, then the situation becomes easier. Personally, I would much rather prefer to lock up our stud franchise players as long as possible. The list of things that take priority over that is extremely short in my mind and well worth the extra struggle we'd face to get that opportunity. 

 

[aGENT]

38 minutes ago, Horvat is a Boss said:

 

Off the top of my head, here are some other players that teams with cap space will likely be able to pursue:

 

Palat/Johnson/Killorn

Strome/Georgiev

Sundqvist/Bozak/Blais

Hinostroza

Bennett

Laughton/Raffl

Conolly/Acciari

Komorov/Ladd/Boychuk

Panik/Jensen

Johnsson/Kerfoot

Comeau/Cogliano

 

Some of those guys are cap dumps that will come with extra assets, some of those guys are younger than Roussel and some are just better players.

What are the price tags of these 'younger and better' players?

 

Quote

If we're fine with not having the option of signing a long term deal, then the situation becomes easier. Personally, I would much rather prefer to lock up our stud franchise players as long as possible. The list of things that take priority over that is extremely short in my mind and well worth the extra struggle we'd face to get that opportunity. 

 

I'd prefer lots of things. +/-27 other GM's are in the same boat. Nobody could 'plan' for covid. It is what it is.

 

What 'struggle' would allow us to lock them up long term? Are we talking the cost to move Eriksson? I agree that's an avenue we will likely explore. Or do you mean something else?

Edited July 19, 2020 by aGENT

[theo5789]

5 hours ago, MrCanuck94 said:

This will be great for his confidence and knowing how far he is from playing with the big club.

 

Damn, facing Hughes as shifty as he is is a real test on OJs knees. Good on OJ for keeping up for the most part.

[Canucks Curse]

use Rafferty to dump a big cap hit- ex: Louie + Rafferty + chatfield to Ottawa for 2nd

[D.B Cooper]

24 minutes ago, Canucks Curse said:

use Rafferty to dump a big cap hit- ex: Louie + Rafferty + chatfield to Ottawa for 2nd

Rafferty + Chatfield alone wouldn’t get us a 2nd.  
LE is going to be ALOT harder to get rid of than that.   

[NewbieCanuckFan]

14 minutes ago, drummerboy said:

Rafferty + Chatfield alone wouldn’t get us a 2nd.  
LE is going to be ALOT harder to get rid of than that.   

LOL....if the positions were reversed and we were the team with a lot of cap space, I can be sure there’s no way Benning would take on a six million cap dump and a couple fringe pieces for a 2nd round pick.  Now if Rafferty is able to improve his play without the puck, I’ll upgrade my opinion of him.   

Edited July 19, 2020 by NewbieCanuckFan

[Fred65]

8 hours ago, theo5789 said:

Damn, facing Hughes as shifty as he is is a real test on OJs knees. Good on OJ for keeping up for the most part.

In a real game a player in slot would have received great set up from Hughes without OJ laying a finger on him. He could never get close enough to ride the Hughes into the boards or hold him up. Come on OJ this is your career on the line. On the positive side OJ did manage to stay on his skates