Jake Virtanen | #18 | RW

[ForsbergTheGreat]

30 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Fun note for those invoking the MT comparison (and they are totally different players - on many levels).

 

MT - 22 years old, season to date average ice time 18:11.......15 goals

JV - 23 years old, season to date average ice time 12:38 .......14 goals 

 

Things that make you go hmmmmmm   

Why does that make you go hmmmmm? 

 

 

[Rob_Zepp]

1 minute ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Why does that make you go hmmmmm? 

 

 

One guy gets lauded as franchise player and the other as a guy who would never amount to a real NHL player.    That makes someone go hmmmmm.    Given there are 31 top lines in the NHL by definition, Jake is tied for 22nd overall RW for goals and 28th overall for points putting him as a fringe first liner for a bottom of the league team...not bad.    Another hmmmm is he gets that production while having the 75th most average time on ice (e.g. mid third line level) and a very impressive hits/game and TK/GA ratio.   Point is, I think I continue to agree with Travis Green that no one will know what Jake is at the NHL level until he is 24 or so.    It has been lonely taking that stance - getting less so but at least another full season to come before we really know.   

 

Cheers   

[-AJ-]

7 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

One guy gets lauded as franchise player and the other as a guy who would never amount to a real NHL player.    That makes someone go hmmmmm.    Given there are 31 top lines in the NHL by definition, Jake is tied for 22nd overall RW for goals and 28th overall for points putting him as a fringe first liner for a bottom of the league team...not bad.

Because many centres play wing, you'll find that NHL forwards are not equally distributed among all three forward positions. I find a more accurate measure of 1st liner (as per offensive numbers) would be to look at the top 93 forwards. I also think points-per-game is a better metric than overall points, since missed games can unfairly hurt a player, though of course you have to set a reasonable minimum games, lest you have players with 1 or 2 games at the top of the list.

 

Setting the minimum games at 23 games, Jake's points-per-game of 0.57 sits him at about 140th among all forwards, which would place him at right about dead average for a 2nd line forward, which I think is a more realistic representation of his offense, but still very positive.

[Metal Face Doom]

If Jake's ceiling is a fringe 2nd liner and a great 3rd line winger for the rest of his career, I'd consider that a success.  Right now he's playing like he belongs in the top 6.  

[ForsbergTheGreat]

5 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

One guy gets lauded as franchise player and the other as a guy who would never amount to a real NHL player.    That makes someone go hmmmmm. 

 

Well there’s more to playing than simple scoring goals. Tkachuk leads his team in points with 38, a pretty important stat you just so conveniently left out. As a canes fan you must think Jake is more valuable than taravinen as he only has 9 goals. (Shhh we won’t mention that he got 45 points). you must have also thought Henrik Sedin was garage his career goal average was only 14 goals per 82 games. Jake already tied that in 49 games this year. 
 

 

the only people going hmm are the ones that struggle to understand hockey. Let’s face it. You are only making that statement because you made the bold claim that tkachuk wouldn’t be in the NHL by his fourth year and now he’s got a career .77 p/gp and is on his way to the all star game. Haha

 

5 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

  Given there are 31 top lines in the NHL by definition, Jake is tied for 22nd overall RW for goals and 28th overall for points putting him as a fringe first liner for a bottom of the league team...not bad.

 

ahh the old 31 teams claim haha come one rob that’s grade one level logic. You’re better than that. I guess that means Aaron dell is a #1 goalie too. 

 

welcome back rob. 

 

[gameburn]

3 hours ago, Chicken. said:

I also am impressed with his durability... played all 49 games this year. I am glad I told myself to reserve judgment until midway through the season as to his fitness levels.

 

I am going to throw out a hometown discount deal for 4 years at $3.5M

Best money ever spent.  Ferland but actually playing lol.

[Rob_Zepp]

1 hour ago, -AJ- said:

Because many centres play wing, you'll find that NHL forwards are not equally distributed among all three forward positions. I find a more accurate measure of 1st liner (as per offensive numbers) would be to look at the top 93 forwards. I also think points-per-game is a better metric than overall points, since missed games can unfairly hurt a player, though of course you have to set a reasonable minimum games, lest you have players with 1 or 2 games at the top of the list.

 

Setting the minimum games at 23 games, Jake's points-per-game of 0.57 sits him at about 140th among all forwards, which would place him at right about dead average for a 2nd line forward, which I think is a more realistic representation of his offense, but still very positive.

Ya, I don't have a problem with that at all.   Further, it has never been all about points (for me at least) with this player.  I think he can be something special on a playoff team - a true difference maker.   Guys that can skate like he can and be a physical presence are rare and if they can gift you 20ish goals and 40ish points - they are as good as anything short of a top 20 scorer in my books.  The way that Jake has played since November for Vancouver would have him on the first or second line on roughly 2/3 the teams in the NHL and perhaps more.   I think he has one more (this season) of development until we see what he is really going to be.   May be the one of the best picks Vancouver ever made down the road - just wait for some playoff exposure which could even come this year....which I think is a year faster than expected (I had them 10th going into the year in the West but very close to 8th - they have exceeded my projections so far).

[Rob_Zepp]

1 hour ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

 

Well there’s more to playing than simple scoring goals. Tkachuk leads his team in points with 38, a pretty important stat you just so conveniently left out. As a canes fan you must think Jake is more valuable than taravinen as he only has 9 goals. (Shhh we won’t mention that he got 45 points). you must have also thought Henrik Sedin was garage his career goal average was only 14 goals per 82 games. Jake already tied that in 49 games this year. 
 

 

the only people going hmm are the ones that struggle to understand hockey. Let’s face it. You are only making that statement because you made the bold claim that tkachuk wouldn’t be in the NHL by his fourth year and now he’s got a career .77 p/gp and is on his way to the all star game. Haha

 

 

ahh the old 31 teams claim haha come one rob that’s grade one level logic. You’re better than that. I guess that means Aaron dell is a #1 goalie too. 

 

welcome back rob. 

 

Sorry, forgot how sensitive you are about the turtle in Calgary.   I still think that kid is a punk and someone will end his career either by intent or simply by mistake while trying to hit him a bit too hard.  He doesn't play the game the way it was intended - he has no honour.   None.   

 

Yup, there are 31 teams.   Guess what, if you are team's number one goalie or on their first line - guess what you are.   True story.   

[Kushman]

I got into a two day no speaking argument with my dad about jake last season ( our sports debates can get intense) 

 

Glad Jake is proving doubters wrong and my dad is enjoying a plate of crow almost every game 

[ForsbergTheGreat]

32 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Sorry, forgot how sensitive you are about the turtle in Calgary.   I still think that kid is a punk and someone will end his career either by intent or simply by mistake while trying to hit him a bit too hard.  He doesn't play the game the way it was intended - he has no honour.   None.   

 

Yup, there are 31 teams.   Guess what, if you are team's number one goalie or on their first line - guess what you are.   True story.   

Aaron dell isn’t even sharks number one goalie. But according to your 31 criteria he is. Haha. 

Wait who’s the flames #1 goalie. What about the oilers. How do the islanders have two number one goalies according to your criteria but the Vegas knights doesn’t have any. How is this possible?  Doesn’t every team have to have a number one goalie. 

But wait there’s more.... According to NHL.com canucks only have 2 RW’s?  How can an NHL team only have two RW? Hmmmm something’s not adding up. 
 

There are 31 teams, each team has four lines = 124 RW’s in the NHL right?

 Yet on NHL.com. There’s only 81 RW’s that have played over 20 games this year.  Guess by default there are zero 4th line RWs in the NHL this year. That doesn’t make much sense now does it. 
 

.....And to finish it off. By your same logic if that means jake is a first liner. Well I guess, not only is Nylander a first liner. He’s a top 10 RW in the league......

 

 

[Alflives]

11 minutes ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Aaron dell isn’t even sharks number one goalie. But according to your 31 criteria he is. Haha. 

Wait who’s the flames #1 goalie. What about the oilers. How do the islanders have two number one goalies according to your criteria but the Vegas knights doesn’t have any. How is this possible?  Doesn’t every team have to have a number one goalie. 

But wait there’s more.... According to NHL.com canucks only have 2 RW’s?  How can an NHL team only have two RW? Hmmmm something’s not adding up. 
 

There are 31 teams, each team has four lines = 124 RW’s in the NHL right?

 Yet on NHL.com. There’s only 81 RW’s that have played over 20 games this year.  Guess by default there are zero 4th line RWs in the NHL this year. That doesn’t make much sense now does it. 
 

.....And to finish it off. By your same logic if that means jake is a first liner. Well I guess, not only is Nylander a first liner. He’s a top 10 RW in the league......

 

 

We all know William Nylander is a Double Flamingo coward.  

[Rob_Zepp]

9 hours ago, ForsbergTheGreat said:

Aaron dell isn’t even sharks number one goalie. But according to your 31 criteria he is. Haha. 

Wait who’s the flames #1 goalie. What about the oilers. How do the islanders have two number one goalies according to your criteria but the Vegas knights doesn’t have any. How is this possible?  Doesn’t every team have to have a number one goalie. 

But wait there’s more.... According to NHL.com canucks only have 2 RW’s?  How can an NHL team only have two RW? Hmmmm something’s not adding up. 
 

There are 31 teams, each team has four lines = 124 RW’s in the NHL right?

 Yet on NHL.com. There’s only 81 RW’s that have played over 20 games this year.  Guess by default there are zero 4th line RWs in the NHL this year. That doesn’t make much sense now does it. 
 

.....And to finish it off. By your same logic if that means jake is a first liner. Well I guess, not only is Nylander a first liner. He’s a top 10 RW in the league......

 

 

Whatever you say.    

[73 Percent]

9 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Whatever you say.    

Going around making friends I see. Day 2...

[Rob_Zepp]

1 minute ago, 73 Percent said:

Going around making friends I see. Day 2...

It's a skill.....

[Glug Datt]

10 hours ago, Kushman said:

I got into a two day no speaking argument with my dad about jake last season ( our sports debates can get intense) 

 

Glad Jake is proving doubters wrong and my dad is enjoying a plate of crow almost every game 

that's awesome.. 

only in Canada.. 

[Rob_Zepp]

6 minutes ago, The 5th Line said:

He's only been back on CDC for the last 24 hours and is already getting destroyed. #ClassicRobZepp

I see you still need a dictionary!   

 

Cheers and keep on doing whatever it exactly is you do!   

[WeneedLumme]

17 hours ago, -AJ- said:

Because many centres play wing, you'll find that NHL forwards are not equally distributed among all three forward positions. I find a more accurate measure of 1st liner (as per offensive numbers) would be to look at the top 93 forwards. I also think points-per-game is a better metric than overall points, since missed games can unfairly hurt a player, though of course you have to set a reasonable minimum games, lest you have players with 1 or 2 games at the top of the list.

 

Setting the minimum games at 23 games, Jake's points-per-game of 0.57 sits him at about 140th among all forwards, which would place him at right about dead average for a 2nd line forward, which I think is a more realistic representation of his offense, but still very positive.

Reasonable, but I think that points per 60 minutes is an even better metric. Among NHL forwards who have played at least 20 games this season, Jake is 59th in 5 on 5 points/60. When you consider that there are 93 first line positions in the NHL, that means it is no surprise that Jake doesn't look out of place playing on the first line, since his productivity is first line level.

Edited January 21, 2020 by WeneedLumme

[ForsbergTheGreat]

2 hours ago, WeneedLumme said:

Reasonable, but I think that points per 60 minutes is an even better metric. Among NHL forwards who have played at least 20 games this season, Jake is 59th in 5 on 5 points/60. When you consider that there are 93 first line positions in the NHL, that means it is no surprise that Jake doesn't look out of place playing on the first line, since his productivity is first line level.

Points per 60 at 5 on 5, doesn’t hold water either unless you willing to admit that Robert Thomas is a more effective producing first liner then Elias Pettersson, since that’s what the criteria states?  Is Zack Kassian a better first liner than Jack Eichel?  According to that data set, Virtanen is more of a first liner than Ovechkin, Laine, JT Miller, Bergeron, Horvat, Hall, Taravainen and even Barzal, how stupid does that sound? 

This is a prime example of the error in using the simplified logic 31 multiplied by X equals YXZ.  There’s an enormous amount of important criteria that is exclude when determining what defines a first line forward.  There’s so much more to what defines a first line forward than simply, goals, points, points per 60, points/gp and even ozone starts.  None of those data points are going to give you black and white answer and what you end up with is a very grey statistic that people try to present as fact.   

 

The biggest flaw is believing that the NHL has 93 first liners.  Just because there’s that many vacancies in the league doesn’t mean there’s that many players to fill that hole. Teams that don’t have the players to fill that role are often forced to put someone in a role they are not suited for.  Just as New Jersey’s goaltending when considering who there #1 goalie is.  Some teams have 4-6 players that would be valued as a first liner around the league, some teams might be lucky to have one player.  1st through 4th line positioning is not static, players move up and down the roster throughout the entire year, on every team. 

 

People try hard to cherry pick numbers that bring out positives on players they have a bias’s for.  I’m seeing TO media doing the same thing currently explaining why they think Nylander is a top 50 player in the NHL which he is clearly not. 

 

It’s frustrating to see the critical thinking of the game taken out.  I don’t like seeing things dumbed down to forth grade level and simply agree.  People should stop and ask themselves,  Is the data presented, enough to make a beyond reasonable doubt conclusion? How might this data be flawed?  Is there bester criteria that needs to be considered?  We’re better than eastern Hockey fans, we should hold ourselves to a higher standard of hockey discussion and not be sucked into the blind bias’s stats that leaf fans constantly deploy. 

[-AJ-]

4 hours ago, WeneedLumme said:

Reasonable, but I think that points per 60 minutes is an even better metric. Among NHL forwards who have played at least 20 games this season, Jake is 59th in 5 on 5 points/60. When you consider that there are 93 first line positions in the NHL, that means it is no surprise that Jake doesn't look out of place playing on the first line, since his productivity is first line level.

I think you'll find that as ATOI goes down points per minute will overinflate. This is likely because players who play less minutes most often play against weaker competition. In addition, because they play fewer minutes, they're also fresher when they do play, so it's easier for them to play well. Increase Jake's minutes and I nearly promise you his points per minute goes down. 

[J-Dizzle]

20 hours ago, The 5th Line said:

 

I've already said multiple times.  He has exceeded my expectations, I am enjoying watching his and the teams progression.  What more do you want? 

....To admit you were wrong?