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Jake Virtanen | #18 | RW


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It can be tougher than expected for a big body junior to transition to the pro game. CHL play against smaller players gives a big body the ability to take short cuts. Pros are all bigger and tougher. Not saying that Virtanen will not adjust but suggest that AHL time might round out his game.

On the emotional side these young players are fawned on for years prior to the pros by fans, media and even coaches. I can imagine the head games can be a struggle as well.

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Who will make the NHL first McCann or Virtanen?

Most likely Virtanen.

I think Virtanen because we have to many centres, making it difficult for McCann UNLESS we offload one of our current centers. Imagine both.. :bigblush:

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Most likely Virtanen.

I think Virtanen because we have to many centres, making it difficult for McCann UNLESS we offload one of our current centers. Imagine both.. :bigblush:

If we unload Bones and Richardson walks, our C depth could look like this:

Henrik

Horvat

McCann

Matthias

Ofcourse this is only if McCann makes it and Horvat can handle 2C.

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The way WD is handling Kassian right now, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Virtanen to make the team next year even though he is physically capable - barring a significant improvement, I don't see it happening

Jared on the other hand has the opposite problem - he is not physically ready - barring an incredible rate of muscle growth, I don't see McCann making it either

Horvat basically had both Virtanen's man's body and McCann's mature game - that's how he won WD over. Both guys from 2014 are missing one of the two - because Jake is ready physically, I think he has a better chance than McCann next year since all he has to do is learn to be a responsible player, but I'm not sure he'll learn that in Calgary this year

Edited by Dasein
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Virtanen doesn't look ready, he isn't exactly tearing up the league. Both will go back to junior and then 1-2 yrs in AHL after

On the contrary he looks more ready than ever. He's playing great defensive hockey now, this after improving his playmaking. Already coming with his physicality, speed and scoring, he's the total package. The stat-watchers need to figure out that there's more to hockey than just piling in points against easy competition.

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On the contrary he looks more ready than ever. He's playing great defensive hockey now, this after improving his playmaking. Already coming with his physicality, speed and scoring, he's the total package. The stat-watchers need to figure out that there's more to hockey than just piling in points against easy competition.

aha yes. Once a player stops producing claim that hes playing defensive.

I call b.s.

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Virtanen doesn't look ready, he isn't exactly tearing up the league. Both will go back to junior and then 1-2 yrs in AHL after

Kenins wasn't even on a half point per game pace in the AHL and now he's producing with regularity in the NHL.

Stats can be deceiving. You shouldn't assume that lack of points means he's not playing well.

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The way WD is handling Kassian right now, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Virtanen to make the team next year even though he is physically capable - barring a significant improvement, I don't see it happening

Jared on the other hand has the opposite problem - he is not physically ready - barring an incredible rate of muscle growth, I don't see McCann making it either

Horvat basically had both Virtanen's man's body and McCann's mature game - that's how he won WD over. Both guys from 2014 are missing one of the two - because Jake is ready physically, I think he has a better chance than McCann next year since all he has to do is learn to be a responsible player, but I'm not sure he'll learn that in Calgary this year

This summary is pretty dead on IMO.

And I don't think Canuck fans should be disappointed in this, as CDC will no doubt be in despair; rather they should be excited!

That is a very normal position for prospects at age 18, 19. Both look like they will be solid NHL'ers if they follow a proper development curve!

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aha yes. Once a player stops producing claim that hes playing defensive.

I call b.s.

Oh he's obviously trying to score, however, his development continues despite Calgary playing their overagers in the cushy offensive spots.

I'm not sure why a guy with Virtanen's shot isn't given Stamkos spot power play looks every game, but there he is, still developing other aspects of his game, and his team is winning.

I'd be much more concerned if a prospect who brings nothing BUT offense would stop producing cushy stats for the stat-watchers.

Edited by BanTSN
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It is a mistake to think that Virtanen's goal scoring last year was his "normal" production and that this year it is down. Last year he was likely riding an unsustainable high shooting percentage (he got lucky to a certain extent). However, he could be experience an abnormally low shooting percentage this year (one would hope). It is likely a combination of both.

Similar to Horvat's goal scoring this year (his first 44 games). He's shooting percentage is very likely to regress down from 18.2%. Even with an increase in ice time it is unlikely that Horvat will score 8 goals in his next 44 games.

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It is a mistake to think that Virtanen's goal scoring last year was his "normal" production and that this year it is down. Last year he was likely riding an unsustainable high shooting percentage (he got lucky to a certain extent). However, he could be experience an abnormally low shooting percentage this year (one would hope). It is likely a combination of both.

Similar to Horvat's goal scoring this year (his first 44 games). He's shooting percentage is very likely to regress down from 18.2%. Even with an increase in ice time it is unlikely that Horvat will score 8 goals in his next 44 games.

How do you know either his sh% or shot totals from last year? Haven't found a site yet that gives consistent stats for either.

Edited by uselessstats
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Kenins wasn't even on a half point per game pace in the AHL and now he's producing with regularity in the NHL.

Stats can be deceiving. You shouldn't assume that lack of points means he's not playing well.

Small sample.

Kenins plays with energy and is defensively responsible. That is how he played in the AHL and that is how is playing in the NHL. And that might be enough for him to stick in the NHL as an "energy" player (i.e. 4th line).

it is very rare that a guy who cannot score in the AHL becomes a scorer in the NHL. A guy who is very young and plays only a few games in the AHL might of course become a scorer in the NHL. But if we are looking at a reasonable sample size for players in their early 20s, AHL grinders never become NHL scorers.

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It can be tougher than expected for a big body junior to transition to the pro game. CHL play against smaller players gives a big body the ability to take short cuts. Pros are all bigger and tougher. Not saying that Virtanen will not adjust but suggest that AHL time might round out his game.

On the emotional side these young players are fawned on for years prior to the pros by fans, media and even coaches. I can imagine the head games can be a struggle as well.

Its hard to disagree with this.

But I think its for different reasons. Yes it's different when you are suddenly not the only bull, and its no longer a china shop. And we could cite the WJC where Jake had no issue taking on guys bigger than himslef already.

The key reason most big bodies do not adjust is the pace and intensity of the game. As it relates to athleticism and endurance. Not strength.

Most big bodies are shocked by the exertion required in the pro's. Every player actually has to adjust to the speed. And some of all sizes never make it. In junior decent athletes drafted in top rounds anyway, can coast at 85% and play 20 minutes a game. Cranking up to 90, 93 and even 99% is a whole new game. Especially when explosive energy suddenly becomes necessary just to survive. Kenins has it for example. And Kassian does not. It's an absolute brick wall you must smash through in terms of training to prepare! I as a former coach (not hockey) am convinced that is what Willie wants Kassian to add to his game!

That issue is multiplied by being big. Its not just the athletes fault. Simple physics; it takes more energy to move a bigger body mass at a high speed. More again at explosive rates of acceleration. Simply put the bigger body drains of energy much faster. Then the legs, the agility, the skills turn to mush. Some big guys, Dustin Penner and Chris Stewart for example pick and choose their places which they can sometimes get away with because of their skill level. And still use their size as a different advantage in the right circumstance. But can also be exposed. Kassian again...

That brick wall takes advanced training, nutrition, rest, proper practice habits to break through. To get to the point you can play at that level, continuously exhaust that output and retain your athleticism. Retain your skills. Booth tried playing at 220lbs, then the next year tried to trim down to 207. And hurt himself every year because he did not pay attention. He wasn't trained properly then tried to jump right up to peak exertion. It can take years to strike the right balance to excel in most circumstances the NHL will throw at you.

There is also the mental game. Where you were always good enough. But suddenly your not. Where you prepare and train hard at one aspect, again see Kassian, but it does not actually prepare for what a new coach wants. Torts allowed Kass to sit back in a defensive zone. Willie wants Kassian to hound the puck and play a pressure game. Which requires that explosive energy and endurance. Add to it game factors, training for triple OT? Guys can get frustrated and wash out if they don't figure it out.

THAT is why it usually takes longer for big athletes to adjust. Science has proven most can do it if the athlete responds.Teams do have the training, rest and nutrition expertise available. But they do have to follow that route. Not the one to the Roxy. If determined enough, big players however can be extremely dominant forces when they figure it out!

On another hand some athletes, big athletes, are just gifted enough. Ovechkin! Not saying he is at that talent, but Virtanen appears to have athletecism of this kind of gifted ilk He has speed, quickness, agility and strength. Notably endurance and explosiveness. It is even rarer in big athletes. This is why Virtanen is such an exciting pick.

And we should be patient with the hockey side if need be?

Edited by Canuck Surfer
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The way WD is handling Kassian right now, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for Virtanen to make the team next year even though he is physically capable - barring a significant improvement, I don't see it happening

Jared on the other hand has the opposite problem - he is not physically ready - barring an incredible rate of muscle growth, I don't see McCann making it either

Horvat basically had both Virtanen's man's body and McCann's mature game - that's how he won WD over. Both guys from 2014 are missing one of the two - because Jake is ready physically, I think he has a better chance than McCann next year since all he has to do is learn to be a responsible player, but I'm not sure he'll learn that in Calgary this year

Good analysis. Agree on all points.

One key point is that guys who have NHL size and strength and have high energy (intensity) can play in the NHL as 4th liners as long as they learn to play decent defence. This applies to Virtanen, so it would not be a huge surprise to see him in the NHL next year (although I think the odds are against it) or the year after. But I worry about his ceiling, Craig Button might be right. Last year in June Button predicted that the Canucks would take Virtanen at the #6 spot but had him rated as #43 in his own rankings on the grounds that he thought Virtanen's ceiling was as a third liner -- a guy who can skate and shoot and play with strength and intensity but who lacks the hockey IQ to play top 6.

Not much doubt Virtanen will play in the NHL and he will get to the NHL before McCann, but I think McCann has a higher ceiling. His kind of game can readily translate to 2C or, if we are really lucky, even 1C. And I assume he could switch to the wing if necessary. He will probably be in Junior next year and in the AHL the year after, but he looks like an excellent prospect -- maybe better than Virtanen at this stage.

Edited by JamesB
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From what I see he isnt being played right in Calgary...I would like to see him on another team next year if he doesnt make the Canucks and all signs lead me to believe he wont...Vancouver Giants please..

I think Calgary us running their team to win, wether is playing their 1st round pick with ice time or not, they are giving the older players that give them a. Bette chance at winning. That said next year all the over agers for Calgary shild be gone, I think next year he will have much more ice time then he did the last 2 years.

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