Erik Gudbranson | #44 | D

[NewbieCanuckFan]

1 hour ago, ilduce39 said:

Stech has averaged about 17 minutes and Guddy 19 this year, Tanev 20 (and a half).

 

(Edler 23, Hutton 21 and Pouliot 18 for reference)

 

So matchups aside, they’re sharing the load pretty equally.  Ben and Erik have the least impressive stats but you’d have to think they’re doing heavier lifting than Troy and Derrick.  They are getting beat up a bit though.

 

Will be be interesting to see who Hughes plays with but Guddy would be a nice fit if different strengths can complement each other.

I neglected to mention a pairing that was used the prior season - Edler & Guds, which I’ll admit didn’t look out of place in a top four assignment.  

[Phil_314]

1 hour ago, Duodenum said:

Sigh, if only this were true. 

 

Guddy really didn't develop at all since coming from Florida.

 

He's been on the ice for 40 goals against at even strength, basically double the amounts of Stetcher, Edler, Tanev, and even Pouliot. Sure, he faces better competition than Stetcher and Pouliot but that only matters if you actually perform. Getting destroyed in your own zone is not an excuse for "dzone starts".

 

Even the worst teams in the league don't have defensemen with ratios that bad. Dion Phaneuf comes close and we all know how god awful he is. 

 

He's a defensive defenseman who can't prevent goals against. He's by far the worst at the team at it. That's with facing 2nd liners. If that wasn't enough, he handcuffs the team offensively when he's out there as well. Solid defensive play doesn't lead to doubling everyone else in goals against. It's not a one year anomaly either. 

 

He's seventh in the entire league in goals against as a defenseman and every defenseman ahead of him has more minutes played.

That is not solid defensive play.

 

He has the worst ratio of Goals for to goals against in the entire league.

Hmm interesting.  Where do you find these rankings, mind posting them??

[Duodenum]

3 hours ago, ilduce39 said:

It’s funny that the coaching staff obviously don’t share that opinion... they see all the same stats we do plus a crap ton of video analysis.

 

They waived Gagner so the veteran or contract angle doesn’t work as a narrative as to why he’s with the club.

 

I find the fancy stats tend to undersell players like Gudbranson. On a whim I

googled a guy like Vlasic from San Jose.  2.6 GF 3.8 GA.  Guddy is 2.0 GF 3.7 GA. Is Vlasic better?  Sure.  But he also makes 7 mil for the next 8 seasons.  

 

His GF/GA stats look like trash but any team in the league would take him.

 

Point being, there’s more to breaking down Gudbranson’s game than the numbers.

You should look at Vlasic from years past. He's fallen off a cliff and is terrible this year, just ask Sharks fans.

 

Sorry but someone who allows double the amount of goals as he team scores on the ice is not good, no matter what minutes he play.

[Duodenum]

4 hours ago, aGENT said:

First ~500 isn't exactly a 'good' record.

 

And because:

 

 

And perhaps you missed the long periods of time where Sutter, Beagle, Tanev and Edler where injured this season? 

 

Again, nobody is claiming he is Niedermayer. He's a second pair, defensive D that has played the last few seasons under anything but ideal conditions, including his own injuries and whose job it is to take the hit on statistics so other players, who would fair FAR worse under those same conditions, don't have to.

 

If Stecher was able to play those situations, he would be. There's a reason the coaching staff tries to avoid putting him in those positions and that he plays less minutes. Sorry that (reality) doesn't suit your narrative.

All you have is conjecture. His injuries in previous years, injuries to other players (he actually played better when Edler and Tanev were injured). Other players maybe playing worse as a 2nd pairing guy. Again, his production is one of the worst in the league as a 2nd pairing guy. He can't handle it himself. He's a 3rd pairing guy at best. 

 

No, Stetcher doesn't play a role that I think he's better than Guddy at. I don't see your point unless you believe I should just agree with what coaches do, everytime.

[aGENT]

40 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

All you have is conjecture. His injuries in previous years, injuries to other players (he actually played better when Edler and Tanev were injured). Other players maybe playing worse as a 2nd pairing guy. Again, his production is one of the worst in the league as a 2nd pairing guy. He can't handle it himself. He's a 3rd pairing guy at best. 

 

No, Stetcher doesn't play a role that I think he's better than Guddy at. I don't see your point unless you believe I should just agree with what coaches do, everytime.

What you call conjecture, I call context. Individual players don't play in a vacuum.

 

I don't really care whether you agree with the coaches our how often. But if you honestly can't understand why Gudbranson is used in situations Stecher isn't, and consequently sees more minutes because of it, you might want to consider what you might be missing that numerous professional NHL coaches (and I, as well as evidently @ilduce39 ) seem to get.

Edited January 7, 2019 by aGENT

[ilduce39]

11 minutes ago, aGENT said:

What you call conjecture, I call context.

 

I don't really care whether you agree with the coaches our how often. But if you honestly can't understand why Gudbranson is used in situations Stecher isn't, and consequently sees more minutes because of it, you might want to consider what you might be missing that numerous professional NHL coaches (and I, as well as evidently @ilduce39 ) seem to get.

Yeah, its easy to spout off a stat or two, but the coaching staff obviously knows what they're doing.  It certainly doesn't feel like Guddy is getting lit up 2 for 1 when he's on the ice - obviously there's some context needed to reading those stats.  It's a tough spot for him - it's easy to say "he's not a second pairing defence man" but really do we have a number one?  Edler has been pretty awesome when healthy... is Tanev a number two?  He doesn't play the minutes of a traditional top pairing guy nor does he put up the points.  Would that make Hutton our number three?  Jebus.  The fact is everyone on the back end is being asked to play over their heads and Guddy seems to take it on the chin when up against stiff competition. 

 

-5 against Toronto,  -4 against Tampa, -4 against Winnipeg and another -3 against Pittsburgh. He's obviously had other up and down games (including apparently a -3 stinker vs carolina in game 3 where he only played 14:50) but a quick glance at those results supports what I've seen from him this year:  He's generally holding his own out there.. he's just had some very bad games +/- wise against some very good teams.  No idea how he actually played those games, but his stats took a hit for sure.

Edited January 7, 2019 by ilduce39

[Alflives]

49 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

All you have is conjecture. His injuries in previous years, injuries to other players (he actually played better when Edler and Tanev were injured). Other players maybe playing worse as a 2nd pairing guy. Again, his production is one of the worst in the league as a 2nd pairing guy. He can't handle it himself. He's a 3rd pairing guy at best. 

 

No, Stetcher doesn't play a role that I think he's better than Guddy at. I don't see your point unless you believe I should just agree with what coaches do, everytime.

Wait until Quinn Hughes arrives.  Guddy needs an elite skating/puck moving Dman for his partner.  Hughes will dominate the game, because Guddy does all the heavy lifting freeing up pucks for Quinn.  

[aGENT]

10 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

Yeah, its easy to spout off a stat or two, but the coaching staff obviously knows what they're doing.  It certainly doesn't feel like Guddy is getting lit up 2 for 1 when he's on the ice - obviously there's some context needed to reading those stats.  It's a tough spot for him - it's easy to say "he's not a second pairing defence man" but really do we have a number one?  Edler has been pretty awesome when healthy... is Tanev a number two?  He doesn't play the minutes of a traditional top pairing guy nor does he put up the points.  Would that make Hutton our number three?  Jebus.  The fact is everyone on the back end is being asked to play over their heads and Guddy seems to take it on the chin when up against stiff competition. 

 

-5 against Toronto,  -4 against Tampa, -4 against Winnipeg and another -3 against Pittsburgh. He's obviously had other up and down games (including apparently a -3 stinker vs carolina in game 3 where he only played 14:50) but a quick glance at those results supports what I've seen from him this year:  He's generally holding his own out there.. he's just had some very bad games +/- wise against some very good teams.  No idea how he actually played those games, but his stats took a hit for sure.

IMO Edler's a solid #2D, Tanev a 2B/3A D, Hutton and Guddy are both #4D (occasional ability to play #3), Stecher a #6D, MDZ, Biega and Pouliot are #7-8D.

 

There's definitely some gaps there 

 

Personally I'm all for targeting either Myers/Karlsson this summer given how Pettersson has pushed the rebuild forward. Start the year with:

 

Edler, Karlsson

Hutton, Tanev

Hughes, Gudbranson

 

_____(TBD), Stecher

 

Then move Tanev at the TDL, shift Hughes to the right and (if he can stay healthy), recall OJ.

 

Edler, Karlsson

Hutton, Hughes

OJ, Gudbranson

 

_____(TBD), Stecher

 

Those both would seem to be MILES ahead of what we've had the last few years for D.

[Duodenum]

1 hour ago, aGENT said:

What you call conjecture, I call context. Individual players don't play in a vacuum.

 

I don't really care whether you agree with the coaches our how often. But if you honestly can't understand why Gudbranson is used in situations Stecher isn't, and consequently sees more minutes because of it, you might want to consider what you might be missing that numerous professional NHL coaches (and I, as well as evidently @ilduce39 ) seem to get.

Not the first time coaches screwed up. Won't be the last.

 

If you have no argument it's alright. Great thing about stats is that they are easy and plain to see. One of the worst in the league in goals against and GF%.

 

If the only argument is 'trust Green', then there's nothing here. It is extremely difficult to defend against 40 goals against in 40 games. At least Hutton has an excuse in that he's paired with Gudbranson. 

[Duodenum]

1 hour ago, ilduce39 said:

Yeah, its easy to spout off a stat or two, but the coaching staff obviously knows what they're doing.  It certainly doesn't feel like Guddy is getting lit up 2 for 1 when he's on the ice - obviously there's some context needed to reading those stats.  It's a tough spot for him - it's easy to say "he's not a second pairing defence man" but really do we have a number one?  Edler has been pretty awesome when healthy... is Tanev a number two?  He doesn't play the minutes of a traditional top pairing guy nor does he put up the points.  Would that make Hutton our number three?  Jebus.  The fact is everyone on the back end is being asked to play over their heads and Guddy seems to take it on the chin when up against stiff competition. 

 

-5 against Toronto,  -4 against Tampa, -4 against Winnipeg and another -3 against Pittsburgh. He's obviously had other up and down games (including apparently a -3 stinker vs carolina in game 3 where he only played 14:50) but a quick glance at those results supports what I've seen from him this year:  He's generally holding his own out there.. he's just had some very bad games +/- wise against some very good teams.  No idea how he actually played those games, but his stats took a hit for sure.

Yes, it is easy to spout off stats. Especially when you look at goals against and Gudbranson is at the top, don't even need to scroll down or anything. 

 

Edler and Tanev have no trouble against better competition. Hutton has held his own but probably not an ideal #3. Gudbranson is getting killed as the #4 while the 3rd pairing has been adequate for the most part. Improve the #4 slot and you'll improve the team immensely. 

[ilduce39]

1 minute ago, Duodenum said:

Yes, it is easy to spout off stats. Especially when you look at goals against and Gudbranson is at the top, don't even need to scroll down or anything. 

 

Edler and Tanev have no trouble against better competition. Hutton has held his own but probably not an ideal #3. Gudbranson is getting killed as the #4 while the 3rd pairing has been adequate for the most part. Improve the #4 slot and you'll improve the team immensely. 

Easy to spout off stats but it's a lot harder to interpret them.  Gudbranson has missed a lot of time the past few years and this hasn't happened.. so bumping Stecher up the lineup obviously doesn't fix the problem unless you're saying Biega is an absolute black hole of a number 3.

[Duodenum]

2 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

Easy to spout off stats but it's a lot harder to interpret them.  Gudbranson has missed a lot of time the past few years and this hasn't happened.. so bumping Stecher up the lineup obviously doesn't fix the problem unless you're saying Biega is an absolute black hole of a number 3.

Moving Stecher up just brings Del Zotto or Biega into the line-up, short term solutions at best. 

Ideally, we get a much better #4 and leave Stecher as the #5, he's really solidified the bottom pairing. 

 

The Canucks aren't a top team for a reason guys. I feel like some people have a hard time admitting that the players not being good enough is the reason. Edler, Tanev, Stecher have all done well and the stats show it. Stats win games and lose games. If everyone was doing good, then the Canucks wouldn't be losing. Stecher has done well his entire time here. Goals against and goals for show it. He's not an anchor. But there are players who aren't doing their job and that's why we've been in the basement and under .500 so far this year. 

 

 

Edited January 7, 2019 by Duodenum

[ilduce39]

5 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

Moving Stecher up just brings Del Zotto or Biega into the line-up, short term solutions at best. 

Ideally, we get a much better #4 and leave Stecher as the #5, he's really solidified the bottom pairing. 

Why not just bump Gudbranson down the 3rd pair and put Stech in the press box? 

 

Also: how do you explain Guddy at a 1.5 / 2.0 last season?  That's a 50 game sample and probably a lot more indicative to his play. The 2.0 GA/60 was one of the best on the team, too and the only D guys on the positive that year were Biega and Tanev.  

 

Gudbranson has obviously had a rough season in the GA department but like I pointed out, he's been hammered in 4 games against elite teams.. and while I'm sure he made some mistakes I don't remember him in particular being the issue. 

 

I'm all for improving our D but picking a guy out of the middle of the depth chart and labeling him "the problem" is something I can't buy into.

[Duodenum]

2 minutes ago, ilduce39 said:

Why not just bump Gudbranson down the 3rd pair and put Stech in the press box? 

 

Also: how do you explain Guddy at a 1.5 / 2.0 last season?  That's a 50 game sample and probably a lot more indicative to his play. The 2.0 GA/60 was one of the best on the team, too and the only D guys on the positive that year were Biega and Tanev.  

 

Gudbranson has obviously had a rough season in the GA department but like I pointed out, he's been hammered in 4 games against elite teams.. and while I'm sure he made some mistakes I don't remember him in particular being the issue. 

 

I'm all for improving our D but picking a guy out of the middle of the depth chart and labeling him "the problem" is something I can't buy into.

Not the problem, a problem. 

 

The Canucks aren't a top team for a reason guys. I feel like some people have a hard time admitting that the players not being good enough is the reason. Edler, Tanev, Stecher have all done well and the stats show it. Stats win games and lose games. If everyone was doing good, then the Canucks wouldn't be losing. Stecher has done well his entire time here. Goals against and goals for show it. He's not an anchor. But there are players who aren't doing their job and that's why we've been in the basement and under .500 so far this year. 

 

As for last year, Gudbranson actually played less than Stecher that year and only averaged the 5th highest ice time amongst dmen on the team. He also had the 2nd worst GF% after Pouliot. He benefited a lot from an on-ice sv% of .938, higher than every other regular. Definitely did better this year, with less time. He was very bad the year prior in 2017. So we've got 70 games of abysmal and 50 games of ok. Panthers fans will give you the same I am, poor offensively and defensively. Other than their one playoff run, he didn't do well there either. 

 

If you want some reminders, the 1st goal against by Tavares was directly his fault and the goal by Ozhiganov went off Gudbranson's skate in front, unlucky but also his fault. The one by Johnsson was probably 60-70% Hutton's fault over Gudbranson. Gudbranson thought that Hutton could get to the puck and pass it to him but Hutton couldn't. Moore was on Pouliot and Markstrom should've stopped the Matthews goal. 

[aGENT]

28 minutes ago, Duodenum said:

The Canucks aren't a top team for a reason guys. 

Yeah, because we have a #2 and #3 D as our top pair and two #4D as our 2nd pair. We lack top players at the top of the D group because we're a rebuilding team. The problem isn't the middle.

[Boudrias]

10 hours ago, Duodenum said:

Moving Stecher up just brings Del Zotto or Biega into the line-up, short term solutions at best. 

Ideally, we get a much better #4 and leave Stecher as the #5, he's really solidified the bottom pairing. 

 

The Canucks aren't a top team for a reason guys. I feel like some people have a hard time admitting that the players not being good enough is the reason. Edler, Tanev, Stecher have all done well and the stats show it. Stats win games and lose games. If everyone was doing good, then the Canucks wouldn't be losing. Stecher has done well his entire time here. Goals against and goals for show it. He's not an anchor. But there are players who aren't doing their job and that's why we've been in the basement and under .500 so far this year. 

 

 

I don't view Stecher the same way. I suspect in CUP play he gets murdered. Even now at crunch time on a heavy fore check he coughs the puck up regularly. This sounds negative but he is a player early in his career and needs TOI to develop his game. If nothing else this kid has demonstrated top level desire. Canucks have to continue to develop him at the NHL level.  3 seasons of NCAA and in his 3rd season of NHL. Like Hutton he had almost no AHL time. If he is in fact 190 pounds then my concern over size might be overstated and he can develop a game that can protect himself. 

[Duodenum]

22 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

I don't view Stecher the same way. I suspect in CUP play he gets murdered. Even now at crunch time on a heavy fore check he coughs the puck up regularly. This sounds negative but he is a player early in his career and needs TOI to develop his game. If nothing else this kid has demonstrated top level desire. Canucks have to continue to develop him at the NHL level.  3 seasons of NCAA and in his 3rd season of NHL. Like Hutton he had almost no AHL time. If he is in fact 190 pounds then my concern over size might be overstated and he can develop a game that can protect himself. 

Pretty overstated. In the past 3 years, he's played nearly 3000 minutes and been on the ice for 2.48 GA/60, 2nd best on the team after Chris Tanev. He played with Alex Edler more than any other dman last year as well on the top d-pairing due to injuries. He also has a 2.42 GF/60, 1st on the team, which makes sense given his better controlled exit stats over the other defensemen. When he gets the puck out, it's controlled and easier for our forwards to transition. 

 

Contrast that with Gudbranson who has a 1.67 GF/60 (worst on the team) and a 2.89 GA/60 (worst on the team) and also has the lowest controlled zone exits (very difficult for Canucks to transition when he's out there -> less offense, more stuck in our own zone). Pretty much every defenseman has better stats when they are not paired with Gudbranson than when they are paired with him. For example (just from this year):

 

Hutton and Gudbranson (520 minutes, 5v5): -16, 34 GF%, -19 Rel GF%, 41 xGF%
Hutton and Stecher (130 minutes, 5v5): even, 50 GF%, +7 Rel GF%, 37 xGF%

 

Look at this chart now that combines QOC, zone start %, and CORSI:

 

 

Zone start % is nearly the same between Stecher and Gudbranson, Stecher has been a much better driver of play going the other way. Gud-Hutton face roughly a 0.9 difference of QoC, not nearly enough of a divide to explain the huge difference in their numbers. Edler and Tanev as you can see do the real heavy lifting. You can see how dark Gudbranson's circle is relative to the players around him. He's around Motte, Sutter, and Beagle who get far worse deployment. He's also pulled Hutton down close to him. Players playing with Stecher get a boost. 

 

It leads me to believe this is part of the reason why teams are heading toward the smaller, quicker d-men in the NHL. They've seen how important leaving the zone with the puck is. Also why Hughes is such an exciting prospect, his controlled zone entries are out of this world good. 

[PhillipBlunt]

9 hours ago, aGENT said:

Yeah, because we have a #2 and #3 D as our top pair and two #4D as our 2nd pair. We lack top players at the top of the D group because we're a rebuilding team. The problem isn't the middle.

A valiant effort, aGENT. Analyticzzzz gonna analyticzzzz. 

[Alflives]

10 hours ago, aGENT said:

Yeah, because we have a #2 and #3 D as our top pair and two #4D as our 2nd pair. We lack top players at the top of the D group because we're a rebuilding team. The problem isn't the middle.

Is July 1, 2019 the time to fill that (top end D) hole?  Go and get EK?  

[EagleShield]

Would anyone be defending Gudbranson if he was 5'11 and 185lbs? I doubt it. Would he even be in the NHL is a better question.

 

He's objectively awful at playing defence. In terms of preventing goals against, he is among the worst in the entire league.

 

He's also a fake tough guy. Throws a big hit every now and then but doesn't actually play with grit. Doesn't fight or any of that outdated "real hockey" stuff that he's being sold to us as.