Brandon Sutter is #2 Forward on this Team

[oldnews]

Here's why I think it's important to try to integrate as much context as possible in an actual persective: and throw out pretentious shortcuts like 'delta corsi', 'hero-charts', wowy graphs, etc. 

This regards "analytical" comparisons of Sutter and Bonino:

 

On 2016-01-28 at 8:35 PM, oldnews said:

There is no number one argument - that is reductive and simplistic - which would explain your thirst for one tidy little d-colour explanation of all factors summed up tidily in a colour code for you, produced, ironically, by someone else.   You claim to be such a scientific thinker and yet you've provided literally nothing and rely upon the claims/forms of others.     'Have a look at delta corsi.' wadr is an utter fail.  

 

There is the offensive side of the game - and on that account alone it's frequently maintained that Bonino is the better offensive player.  However, when you look into that claim, even just scratch the surface, it doesn't necessarily stand up.   We've seen more of Bonino with better situational opportunities thoughout his career - and that hasn't really translated into superior production - it's a marginal difference at best despite significant situational advantage over years.  Moreover, while Bonino's pp production isn't as significant as some 'offensive' players,  Sutter's career powerplay production is only 15.9% of his overall production - looking at offensive production separated from any of the other factors is simply reductive.  

 

And then obviously there's the equally important defensive side of the game.  This is where it's presumed that Sutter is the better player.  On objective outcomes alone, this also is not as definitive as most people suggest.  This is where Bonino is highly under-rated / undervalued.  Does that mean he's closed the gap there though?   I think the gap between them in this respect is closer than generally conceived, but still the contexts of their play are inseparable from the results.  We've seen plenty of evidence of Sutter's effectiveness in a shutdown role whereas we've seen a more limited sample from Nick, but Bonino has unquestionably excelled - defensively - in that more limited sample. However, offensively, we've seen Bonino go dry while in a shutdown role, despite far more talented linemates, while Sutter was able to produce at an impressive rate with similar situational use in Pittsburgh.

 

Part of this could be considered due to the difference in their games dictated largely by physical gifts alone.  Sutter's been able to produce in dzone start situations, with relatively untalented linemates that don't really produce scoring chances or finish them (another factor in the much harped upon primary assist cherry-pick at Sutter's expense) - and that production is no doubt driven strongly by his speed - his strength in the transition game, his ability to score on the rush - a fleet guy that can play defense first and effectively counterpunch.  That kind of dialectical understanding of the game is not lost on a hockey professional like Benning, but flies high over the heads of many pretenders on these forums, present company included.  Underlying numbers can provide information regarding the larger sample performance of 100s of players that we probably don't see with the kind of frequency to form any viable assessment of - but on the other hand, are clearly very limited.   Nick in a shutdown role with high dzone starts. has the responsibility to provide support down low (an area that a larger, faster, more physical center has a decided advantage over him) - without the speed to play as effective a 200ft game, it's simply more difficult for Nick to transition a defensive first role into offensive opportunities - to score off odd man rushes on the counterpunch - his transition game is more limited by the fact he is simply not as mobile.

 

None of this is to say that Bonino isn't an excellent two way hockey player - but what it probably does indicate is that he is limited to more of an either/or role.   Does he have the explosiveness needed to bring both sides of the game in an integrated way that Sutter does?   Therein lies the advantage of Sutter imo - the simultaneous 200ft results and potential.   He can score in a shutdown role - or he can enhance an ozone start line like the Sedins by providing that 200ft support, limiting opposition possession by bringing his proficiency without the puck - while still having that upside he's evidenced throughout his career despite a lack of situational/offensive opportunity.  Less opposition puck possession clearly enhances offensive production - something lost on so many people who think that expecting defensive responsibility from players (young or veteran) somehow stiffles their offensive creativity or output.  This is an area both of these guys excel imo, but Sutter's transition game would suggest a superior integrated two way player - and that is the type of team Benning is working on constructing - a faster, up tempo team with a better transition game.

So whether you use him in a top 6 role or more of a shutdown role, the sum is greater than the more either/or Nick Bonino effect. Nick's underlying numbers early in his career with more heavily weighted offensive situational opportunities weren't as relatively good as they've been in his more recent shutdown role.  One of the anomalies. you get with changing situations, different teams, different coaches, different linemates, different opponents that are also constantly in change.  

 

Regardless of how 'quantitative' you think you can be - it's inevitably very limited.

The 'scientific' pretenses are excessive, particularly with ludicrous, reductive attempts to whittle all that down to a delta colour.

Your avoidance is continuous though - your failure to provide any analysis of your own.    It's pretty clear that you're unable to engage on a meaningful level, instead passing off simple, reductive 'delta' sources as if they constitute your 'science.'  You're unable to take the wealth of data available and make a concerted effort of your own to analyze it - to integrate it - to come up with a broader understanding - to take informed positions with respect to players and actually qualify and defend them.

 

There is plenty of data to use: 

- underlying numbers - corsi and relative corsi (fenwick if you prefer a lesser metric), quality of competition and relative qoc, zone starts (o, d, n), pdo, etc

- offensive statisitics - goals, assists (primary, secondary), zone entries, shooting percentage, powerplay production, even strength production, shorthanded production, etc.

- defensive statistics - takeaways and turnover differential, hits, blocks, penalty killing %, etc.

- neutral / contextual statistics - faceoff percentage (ozone and dzone), ice time (5 on 5, 4 on 5, 5 on 4),  linemate combinations and frequency, penalty minutes, plus/minus, p/d/n zone time, etc.

 

And yet with all the data being collected and processed around the game - a 'scientific' understanding is still so significantly in it's infancy.

 

One of the limitations of existing quantifications - there isn't a counterpart to the quality of competition statistics.  Quality of forward linemates, quality of the blueline corresponding to a player's icetime - the quality of goaltending in front and behind a player.  Quality of coaching.  Quality of the depth / support that a team has.   Greater or less than ideal minutes?   Playing within or outside a player's strengths / ideal role / situational use  Travel, play, scheduling, injuries, exhaustion, etc.  All obvioulsy unquantified factors.

 

It's also arguably a misnomer to refer to essentially a shot attempt differential metric - which is what corsi and fenwick are - as a "possession" metric.  Corsi and fenwick don't really measure possession, they measure one of the end results of possession, in an equalized form that doesn't account for the quality of shots, quality of chances, etc.  In corsi a blocked shot at the blueline equals a breakaway or odd man rush.

 

Passes attempted, completed - actual time of possession and zone possession as opposed to shot attempt differential - further ways to improve the impact of gathering statistics relative to 'puck possession." 

There's also the point that the collection/accumulation of the above statistics is prone to inconsistency, error, judgement and variation across samples, markets...

The attempt to quantify / reduce "quality of competition" to a set of figures is only meaningful within obvious limits - at which point it necessarily breaks down to necessarily imperfect, arguably contrived and "quantified" limitations.

 

In a nutshell - the attempt to substitute merely limited 'analytics'  - a highly reductive 'delta-corsi' calculation / colour code as if sufficiently integrative - as if a 'scientific authority' - is quite simply extremely pretentious.

 

[Mr.53]

Sutter is our most versitile player with the ability to contribute in a multitude of ways. He's a great two way player. He isn't excellent at anything, but he's very good at pretty much everything. Very valuable.

[VIC_CITY]

Sutter is a beauty!

 

CDC is also full of bandwagoners.

 

I wonder if the people that are now singing his praises are the same people that said Bonino was better and Sutter's extension was a big overpayment?

 

Sutter has exceeded pretty much anyone's expectations so far this year, but that's not to say that anyone should be surprised. This is exactly what JB thought he was getting when he traded for Sutter and why he almost traded for him earlier in the Kesler deal. He was the perfect trade target. Playing behind Crosby and Malkin, he just wasn't going to get the kind of opportunity that he has here in Vancouver. The guy is a gamer and I wish we had more players like him and Hansen. They may not ever lead their teams in scoring but those are the kind of players that win you championships. 

 

Looking forward, Bo looks to be another one of those players. If Granlund is able to put on some more muscle, he could very well be. Virtanen seems like he's a long ways a way, buy he has a shot in a few years. Although his desire is definitely in question. 

 

Bottom line is we need more of those do a little bit of everything, bulldog type players. Imagine how good Dorsett would be if he didn't have hands of stone! 

 

Funny thing is though, 99% of CDC wants that pure offensive forward. If we hit the jackpot then sure, go for it. But you never really know if that kind of skill will translate at the NHL level. So if I were JB, I would keep focusing on players that think the game at an elite level and have the desire to keep getting better, like Horvat does and like Juolevi appears to. 

[riffraff]

4 minutes ago, VIC_CITY said:

Sutter is a beauty!

 

CDC is also full of bandwagoners.

 

I wonder if the people that are now singing his praises are the same people that said Bonino was better and Sutter's extension was a big overpayment?

 

Sutter has exceeded pretty much anyone's expectations so far this year, but that's not to say that anyone should be surprised. This is exactly what JB thought he was getting when he traded for Sutter and why he almost traded for him earlier in the Kesler deal. He was the perfect trade target. Playing behind Crosby and Malkin, he just wasn't going to get the kind of opportunity that he has here in Vancouver. The guy is a gamer and I wish we had more players like him and Hansen. They may not ever lead their teams in scoring but those are the kind of players that win you championships. 

 

Looking forward, Bo looks to be another one of those players. If Granlund is able to put on some more muscle, he could very well be. Virtanen seems like he's a long ways a way, buy he has a shot in a few years. Although his desire is definitely in question. 

 

Bottom line is we need more of those do a little bit of everything, bulldog type players. Imagine how good Dorsett would be if he didn't have hands of stone! 

 

Funny thing is though, 99% of CDC wants that pure offensive forward. If we hit the jackpot then sure, go for it. But you never really know if that kind of skill will translate at the NHL level. So if I were JB, I would keep focusing on players that think the game at an elite level and have the desire to keep getting better, like Horvat does and like Juolevi appears to. 

 

How so?

[riffraff]

46 minutes ago, oldnews said:

Here's why I think it's important to try to integrate as much context as possible in an actual persective: and throw out pretentious shortcuts like 'delta corsi', 'hero-charts', wowy graphs, etc. 

This regards "analytical" comparisons of Sutter and Bonino:

 

 

Honestly at this point who cares about bonino.  I think we can move past that trade and comparison and simply assess Sutter based on his play as a Canuck.

[ice orca]

2 hours ago, coastal.view said:

exactly how could willie have effectively done that since nashville had the last change?

i guess he could have reduced horvat's ice time by constantly pulling him off the ice whenever johansen stepped on

but then people would complain about the reduced ice time and think willie failed about that

 

You line match like coaches like Quennville who always seem to get his best on best regardless weather he is home or on the road. Desjardins is very stubborn, when you see a kid get handed his lunch do friggin something. If he wants to win and stay in the race sht or get off the pot.

[oldnews]

1 minute ago, riffraff said:

Honestly at this point who cares about bonino.  I think we can move past that trade and comparison and simply assess Sutter based on his play as a Canuck.

Missed the point riff.

The point is the poor analytics that get applied to these players on a regular basis.  The Bonino deal itself is water under the bridge.

The point there is that Sutter was (and continues to be) severely under-rated as a result of some derp metrics.

[oldnews]

I'll take a guy that can score 20/20, play shutdown, elite in the faceoff circle, great penalty killler,  can generate something out of nothing in transition, throw him on your powerplay units, dangerous and elusive shooter - yeah, I'll take that player any and every time.

[coastal.view]

7 minutes ago, ice orca said:

You line match like coaches like Quennville who always seem to get his best on best regardless weather he is home or on the road. Desjardins is very stubborn, when you see a kid get handed his lunch do friggin something. If he wants to win and stay in the race sht or get off the pot.

so you would not be bitching now if willie had cut bo's ice time

to get the result you say he should have

[ice orca]

1 minute ago, coastal.view said:

so you would not be bitching now if willie had cut bo's ice time

to get the result you say he should have

He doesn't have to cut his ice time by much just switch centers for a few shifts and see if it works.

[riffraff]

1 minute ago, oldnews said:

Missed the point riff.

The point is the poor analytics that get applied to these players on a regular basis.  The Bonino deal itself is water under the bridge.

The point there is that Sutter was (and continues to be) severely under-rated as a result of some derp metrics.

 

Underrated by whom?  I see the odd poster derping "bad cawntractz bawd" but not much more than that....sutter is what he is.

 

context:  he does well with who his linemates are and in the pp1 with the sedins.  Could and should he net more points as a result of those minutes? Maybe?  Are the sedins too over the hill for Sutter to reach his potential?  

 

So many contextual variables like on any team with any player.  It's way over analyzed imo.  

 

At this point I'll admit I have entry level understanding of fancy stats.  But I'm not really interested in it or hung up on it anyway.  Imo, watching a player/team closely, with time invested can provide a reasonable "foundation" for understanding where a player is and should or shouldn't be at production wise.  Certainly taking the time to watch other teams is a plus.

 

basically any player not elite can be expected to have streaks on either side of the puck.

[VIC_CITY]

21 minutes ago, riffraff said:

 

How so?

 

Seriously? 

 

He's on pace to match his career best offensive season, which happened SEVEN years ago in Carolina. He's a leader on this team, an excellent PKer, our best faceoff man, he's been healthy all year....how is he not exceeding expectations?

[coastal.view]

4 minutes ago, ice orca said:

He doesn't have to cut his ice time by much just switch centers for a few shifts and see if it works.

so you break up the bo burr baer line to avoid bo having to take faceoffs against johanssen

i think nashville would be even happier if willie did that

bo still could not avoid johanssen taking every face off against him though

bo would have to take no face offs during the game i guess ?

i'm sure posters here would then be bitching about deployment

 

the reality is

bo still needs to learn

only way he will do that is school of hard knocks

he needs to play against the better players

get schooled a bit

learn from it

he will get bettter

his pride will make him better

no need to shame him (or display lack of confidence in him) by removing him from those situations

doubt next nashville game the faceoff percentages are nearly that bad for bo

[riffraff]

2 minutes ago, VIC_CITY said:

 

Seriously? 

 

He's on pace to match his career best offensive season, which happened SEVEN years ago in Carolina. He's a leader on this team, an excellent PKer, our best faceoff man, he's been healthy all year....how is he not exceeding expectations?

Ok so hes on pace for matching a seven year high.

 

So?

 

hes a leader.  

 

That's why JB brought him in.  See "foundational"

 

excellent pk'er.  

 

We are 20th.

 

our best face off guy.  

 

Agree here.

 

He's been healthy.

 

finally.

 

look.  I'm not hating.  I'm just saying I wouldn't use the words "exceeding expectations" along with Brandon Sutter.  I would use those words to describe Bo and Ryan Miller.

 

i would say BS is doing his best to justify his contract based on last years injury absence.

 

[Beary Sweet]

I believe that Sutter should be considered the 2nd best forward in the team but he isn't. He's probably 3rd-4th best behind Bo, Baer and Honey Badger. He's really good at digging pucks out for his linemmates Granny and Loui. honestly play him with anyone heck let him flank Bo's other wing and he might produce better numbers than he currently has. also impressed with his ability to win clutch faceoffs. hope that he keeps it up. very valuable piece for a team like us

[6string]

Brandon had a great training camp.

 

Off topic a bit here, last night I watched the Nashville broadcast and when Sutter scored the tying goal the Nashville play by play man said, "Soo-ooter scores, Soo-oooter ties the game late in the third period!"

 

Yup he pronounced Sutter's name like ( Ryan ) Suter in Minnesota is pronounced.  Established hockey markets have known the Sutters for more than a generation, one of the most famous hockey families in all of sports not just hockey! it would be impossible to call a Sutter anything else but a Sutter, but I digress the place was packed last night.

[NHTyrany]

I am definitely happy with his performance this year. He is mostly meeting my expectations, although I was hoping for more checking/physicality. Nucks forward group is too soft and neither Sutter nor Erickson have improved the situation.

[Twilight Sparkle]

5 minutes ago, NHTyrany said:

I am definitely happy with his performance this year. He is mostly meeting my expectations, although I was hoping for more checking/physicality. Nucks forward group is too soft and neither Sutter nor Erickson have improved the situation.

it would help if we had a coach who knew how to use this core-- but instead we settle with a guy who can "get through a game" and the team does the work for him. real good.

[aGENT]

37 minutes ago, Twilight Sparkle said:

it would help if we had a coach who knew how to use this core-- but instead we settle with a guy who can "get through a game" and the team does the work for him. real good.

 

Not you too TS? 

[wai_lai416]

On 1/11/2017 at 0:40 AM, on the cycle said:

He's not our 2nd best forward. The twins, Horvat, and Baertschi are all still better. That puts him at #5. 

 

He gets more Ice time than any forward ( 19:30 avg)

We don't have a good top 6. I still think Eriksson is better than Sutter in terms of all around game and should be saddled with the twins the rest of the year.

 

Look if you want to talk realistically about players let's talk........but if you want to go off into a fantasy land and vehemently reject a point with no counter argument I will just ignore you.

 

BTW Sutter's corsi with the twins was about 33%.Eriksson with the twins was 55%.

 

 

 

lol i never said Sutter is our #2 forward i even listed bo and Baer ahead of him which you choose to ignore. Sutter played with the twins as much as Eriksson and a whole bunch of other ppl.. powerplay sure.. you are the one that's complaining about Sutter being overpaid and useless which is not true.. he might be slightly overpaid but it's not like he's not producing and doing anything on the team.. atm there are far more ppl that's overpaid and under performing on this team.. let see the Sedins? Eriksson? the 3 that are paid like a top line foward but producing like a 2nd/3rd liners at best? the twins maybe better skill wise.. but their performance the entire year is far from being in the top 4.. showing up for a couple games and then disappearing for stretches doesn't count not to mention they are probably one of the worst back checking players in OT.. everytime they turn over the puck it's almost guranteed a 2-1 3-1 going back the other way and you'll see the Sedins going towards the bench rather than back checking.. Sutter can still score.. he can play defense.. and he's one of the better faceoff guys in the league... that alone this year warrants his play ahead of the Sedins who can't score much despite having the most offensive zone time and powerplay time of anyone on the team.. don't back check.. and a signicantly lower percentage faceoff guy that Sutter. 

 

so who's the overpaid useless guy you are referring to? Sutter @ 4.375mil that leads the team in faceoff, plays against other teams top lines, and producing at the same rate as the sedins?

 

or the Sedins @ 7mil each or Eriksson at 6mil? 

 

he gets more ice time than any forward maybe coz he plays in all situation? powerplay pk and against other teams top line?