The_Rocket Posted July 8, 2017 Share Posted July 8, 2017 Long time lurker, first time poster here Even if the canucks tank next year and become last in the league, it's still better than a 50% chance that they pick outside the top 3. this means that there is a 50% chance that a 31st place finish leaves them at 4th overal and a 21st place finish would leave them 14th. if the canucks improve 10 spots this year to 21st place, would it really hurt our odds of drafting a good player? is a 4th overall anymore of a guaruntee than a 14th? Really what I'm asking, would you rather see the canucks lose hard to gamble for 1 oa, or compete for a wildcard and take a early-midround pick? for me personally, i would rather see them compete and hope we find a good prospect in 11-14th overall, but interested to hear reasons i might be foolish in this thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike Vanderhoek Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 10 spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kanucks25 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 I don't have the numbers, I'm sure someone else will dig them up, but I'm pretty sure they suggest that top-5 picks have a much better chance of becoming something substantial compared to a non top-5 pick. As for the Canucks next season, I rather the tank because I don't believe in Cinderella teams in the playoffs. I know people always cite the Kings from a handful of years ago or even the Preds this year but remember that both these teams were popular picks to be top teams before in their respective pre-seasons, it just took them a while to put it all together. I understand the merits of a "winning atmosphere" and "playoff experience" but I don't think we have any chance of getting close to the playoffs unless we abandon the rebuild plan which is obviously a terrible idea. The team simply won't be good enough unless we get extremely lucky: amazing goaltending, few injuries, abnormally high shooting percentages across the board. I know some people have soured on tanking because we've been on the wrong side of the lottery two years in a row now but another top-5 talent in our pool would be amazing. Hard to pass up a chance on scoring what seems to be a very unique talent in next year's projected 1st overall pick Rasmus Dahlin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
48MPHSlapShot Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 At this point I don't think we can realistically get out of the basement this year anyways (barring a huge trade or something), so I think this discussion is somewhat moot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nuxfanabroad Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 I'm sure players like Drai will be pointed out. Top-5 picks have pretty damngood odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 37 minutes ago, Canadian Clay said: Long time lurker, first time poster here Even if the canucks tank next year and become last in the league, it's still better than a 50% chance that they pick outside the top 3. this means that there is a 50% chance that a 31st place finish leaves them at 4th overal and a 21st place finish would leave them 14th. if the canucks improve 10 spots this year to 21st place, would it really hurt our odds of drafting a good player? is a 4th overall anymore of a guaruntee than a 14th? Really what I'm asking, would you rather see the canucks lose hard to gamble for 1 oa, or compete for a wildcard and take a early-midround pick? for me personally, i would rather see them compete and hope we find a good prospect in 11-14th overall but interested to hear reasons i might be foolish in this thought Literally, it's 10 spots, as @Mike Vanderhoek pointed out. Thanks for the calculations Mike. Figuratively, look at the last 10 drafts, and you'll have your answer. The Canucks can't afford to draft outside of the top 5 next year or else they'll always be climbing an uphill battle when facing the Big Dog's like the Oilers, Leafs, Coyotes, Sabres, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 There's a pretty clear drop-off after around #4 next year as things stand now. I'd rather have as good a chance as possible of landing one of Dahlin, Tkachuk, or Svechnikov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogersTowell Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 I'd like to see the Canucks have a good start to the season, be in the running for a playoff spot at Christmas, but then have injuries to veterans pile up, some young players get in some games, drop in the standings, and be sellers by TDL. Then tank and be in the draft lottery, get lucky and have one of the top 3 picks. Here's hoping this is finally our lucky lotto year since it's a nice strong draft at the top end. That said, I'd take a fluking our way to win the Stanley cup and then suck for a decade after that as a win. And the OP is correct with the 11-14 range, although it's almost guaranteed a #11 pick if you finish 21st since it's very unlikely that the 20th, 19th, 18th or 17th team will win one of the three lottery positions, and almost certain that more than one would win one. Still, if you don't make the playoffs, you want one of those top 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
numb3r 16 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Let's start in 2015 2015, Mitch marner or Jake debrusk 2014 Sam bennet or jakub vrana 2013 Seth Jones or Alex wennberg 2012 G Reinhart or girgensons 2011 Adam Larsson or Jamie oleksiak 2010 Ryan Johansen or Jaden schwartz 2009 Brayden schennor kulikov 2008 pietrangelo or Zach boychuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rob_Zepp Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Kaner said: The Canucks can't afford to draft outside of the top 5 next year or else they'll always be climbing an uphill battle when facing the Big Dog's like the Oilers, Leafs, Coyotes, Sabres, etc. The "big dogs" as you call them are far from complete teams in themselves and all face interesting CAP issues in next two seasons (Oilers and Leafs in particular). Pinning your hopes on a single player (which this is doing) is like pinning your retirement savings hopes on winning the lottery. As shown in another thread, the best player to come out of the past 25 drafts was not always from the top 4 - in fact something like 20 or so of the past 25 drafts had the eventual "best player" come from outside the top 4. They can "afford" to draft wherever they end up and continue to develop their team. If they get lucky in the lottery, they get lucky. If they don't they can still develop a great team with time, patience and some deft moves. No guarantees either way but simply losing on purpose is a horribly twisted strategy even if many think the Oilers and Leafs tried to perfect it over the past decade plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NHL97OneTimer Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 57 minutes ago, RogersTowell said: I'd like to see the Canucks have a good start to the season, be in the running for a playoff spot at Christmas, but then have injuries to veterans pile up, some young players get in some games, drop in the standings, and be sellers by TDL. Then tank and be in the draft lottery, get lucky and have one of the top 3 picks. Here's hoping this is finally our lucky lotto year since it's a nice strong draft at the top end. That said, I'd take a fluking our way to win the Stanley cup and then suck for a decade after that as a win. And the OP is correct with the 11-14 range, although it's almost guaranteed a #11 pick if you finish 21st since it's very unlikely that the 20th, 19th, 18th or 17th team will win one of the three lottery positions, and almost certain that more than one would win one. Still, if you don't make the playoffs, you want one of those top 5. Not cool man........on a personal note, hoping for injuries to players on your team is pretty bad. From a business perspective, veterans are assets at the trade deadline who may want to go to a competitive team. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Crabcakes Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 2 hours ago, Canadian Clay said: Long time lurker, first time poster here Even if the canucks tank next year and become last in the league, it's still better than a 50% chance that they pick outside the top 3. this means that there is a 50% chance that a 31st place finish leaves them at 4th overal and a 21st place finish would leave them 14th. if the canucks improve 10 spots this year to 21st place, would it really hurt our odds of drafting a good player? is a 4th overall anymore of a guaruntee than a 14th? Really what I'm asking, would you rather see the canucks lose hard to gamble for 1 oa, or compete for a wildcard and take a early-midround pick? for me personally, i would rather see them compete and hope we find a good prospect in 11-14th overall, but interested to hear reasons i might be foolish in this thought Check out this article by TSN's Scott Cullen. It is a definitive bit of research imo. http://www.tsn.ca/statistically-speaking-nhl-draft-pick-value-1.786131 4 OA has an 83% chance of playing 100 NHL games, a 54% chance of being a top 6 forward or top 4 D, and a 25% chance of being 4th line or worse 14 OA has 87% chance of playing 100 games, a 37% chance of being top 6 or top 4, and a 41% chance of being 4th line or worse I think that a team in the Canucks circumstance who finished 21st and climbed 8 spots in the standings would be showing development and that is what I really want to see from next year. I want to see a lot of the young players getting better. A team finishing 21st is less likely to fall in the draft than a team finishing 31st. So the pick would more likely be 10th. I may be quibbling a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PunjabiCanucks Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Would rather us tank and secure a top a 5 pick. Yes we lost the lottery, but there is a guarantee of a top pick and the insurance is worth it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aircool Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 13 hours ago, RogersTowell said: I'd like to see the Canucks have a good start to the season, be in the running for a playoff spot at Christmas, but then have injuries to veterans pile up, some young players get in some games, drop in the standings, and be sellers by TDL. Then tank and be in the draft lottery, get lucky and have one of the top 3 picks. Here's hoping this is finally our lucky lotto year since it's a nice strong draft at the top end. That said, I'd take a fluking our way to win the Stanley cup and then suck for a decade after that as a win. And the OP is correct with the 11-14 range, although it's almost guaranteed a #11 pick if you finish 21st since it's very unlikely that the 20th, 19th, 18th or 17th team will win one of the three lottery positions, and almost certain that more than one would win one. Still, if you don't make the playoffs, you want one of those top 5. Hmmm.... Don't take this too negatively, although it's fair that you might struggle not doing so, but I hate these kinds of opinions. Truly annoying. You want to have your cake and eat it too. You want the team to win a bit, I'm sure you want to go to a couple games while it's running good. Then you want the team to suck so you can still get a lottery pick. You want them good in the early part of the season, so you can get carried over to what, Football, closer to Basketball playoffs? Then you want them to lose so they sell at the deadline. Even though you want them to win before idk December? You literally wished injuries upon veterans on the team, I mean what a trashy thing to say. I hope Daniel gets injured. Why? He's good at a sport, and I need him to not be good right now. You are such a me-centric sports fan. Like anybody cares about you as a sports fan. You'd want our team to suck for a decade, starting the year after it has it's most meaningful year ever (if it ever comes). I just don't know what dreamworld you live in. You clearly don't care for the process of developing a team, you're just like. "Make it happen. This is the result I want. While you're at it, give me a couple wins in November." Am I the only one who thinks that the way of thinking that has to underlie an opinion like this is extremely perverse? I don't mean to make this into a personal attack, but this is the kind of nonsense opinions and mentalities that so many on these forums have that if they were in charge of the Canucks front office, I don't even want to speculate. It's depressing. Yet so many then claim to have "ideas" as to what we should do. How about being willing to commit to a plan, and live with the consequences. There is no being good without pain in hard capped leagues whose power dynamics can ONLY be influenced through the draft. People on these boards need to start laying out a plan to build a DYNASTY! Not a "potential cup winner" or "playoff team". That's a pathetic objective, 16 teams every year make the playoffs and by definition are "in the hunt for the Stanley Cup." How do you win multiple Stanley Cups? You start with one. Most teams in today's NHL, the way it's draft and cap system are designed, that win a cup, are capable of winning more than 1. The only exception is Boston, but they may have been "capable" of winning a second. The objective has to be to build a team that can legitimately have a chance to be a dynasty, it's time people on these boards start accepting the reality of what it takes to build a dynasty. Nobody wants to support a mediocre team for the REST of their life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuktravella Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 i take it the original posters strong suite isnt math thoughs numbers make no sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cowichan Canuck Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 2 hours ago, canuktravella said: i take it the original posters strong suite isnt math thoughs numbers make no sense English > Math? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JeremyCuddles Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 3 hours ago, Cowichan Canuck said: English > Math? Pretty sure it's strong "suit" as well, not strong "suite". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinny in Vancouver Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 Next year's draft has an arguably generational D-man in Rasmus Dahlin. He will likely be followed by an elite forward in Andrei Svechnikov. But the talent level is actually quite deep in next year's draft so the Canucks should explore getting another first rounder or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kurt Nirvanagut Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 17 hours ago, numb3r 16 said: Let's start in 2015 2015, Mitch marner or Jake debrusk 2014 Sam bennet or jakub vrana 2013 Seth Jones or Alex wennberg 2012 G Reinhart or girgensons 2011 Adam Larsson or Jamie oleksiak 2010 Ryan Johansen or Jaden schwartz 2009 Brayden schennor kulikov 2008 pietrangelo or Zach boychuck Griffin Reinhart is not an NHL player. Girgensons at least can play a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
numb3r 16 Posted July 9, 2017 Share Posted July 9, 2017 16 minutes ago, zzbottom said: Griffin Reinhart is not an NHL player. Girgensons at least can play a bit. Ur using 1 scenario out of the 7 I posted to support your argument... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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