The Case for UFA’s

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

There is no middling youth being held back right now though as they’ve all graduated to the big club. 

 

Lind and Gadjo are a million years away. There is no skill coming that’s being blocked by vets. Zack is a grinder and that’s is what FA should be fore. 

 

If JB signs several FAs on a 2 or 3 year term, so what.

If he signs 5 and flips them at the TDL, awesome. 

Those middling UFAs will ruin our coming draft spot.  Our kids should be the ones leading us to where we finish.  I don’t want us to get an unnatural bump up in the standings because of middling UFA signings.  

[189lb enforcers?]

Just now, Alflives said:

Those middling UFAs will ruin our coming draft spot.  Our kids should be the ones leading us to where we finish.  I don’t want us to get an unnatural bump up in the standings because of middling UFA signings.  

Totally agree(d).

I didn’t want any UFA help out of lotto contention last year, the year before or the year before. 

EP and Marky are the reasons were are picking in the middle, but not without the puck support of those UFAs. 

I wanted this roster to holistically bottom out and JB keeps doing his damnedest to prevent it. 

 

I’m not a fan of his work outside the draft, but if he can pile up some picks ahead of the hometown draft, that would be great. Actually TRY to build through the draft, instead of what this has all boiled down to, thus far. 

[billabong]

Panarin is the number 1 on anybodies list but I think he’s going to Florida 

 

 

karlsson - 11m for 7 years at 29 for a dman on the decline who just missed 35 games this season? RED FLAG! I’m sorry but that doesn’t add up to being a good idea. 

 

Duchene - 8 - 8.5m/7 years? I like duchene he’s still got lots in the tank. Maybe some character question marks but I think he would be a needle pusher for this team. He’s played wing before and might like the idea of playing with pettersson or horvat.

 

Skinner - goal scorer for sure but his concussion history scares me 

 

Myers/Gardner - they’ll get their money but term will determine how that deal shakes out 

 

ferland - 5m/5yrs is a risky move but I would do it 

[appleboy]

12 hours ago, Provost said:

On various threads I keep seeing people post that we need to stay away from top UFA’s and just be patient and draft players.

 

They have to do both and they aren’t mutually exclusive.  You don’t stop drafting, you just might have slightly later picks.

 

Once you clear out the random replaceable players on our roster, we have a ton of holes.  We also have no help coming for the top half of our roster any time soon.  Our closet prospects are MacEwan and Juolevi.  Neither is going to be a top player for quite a while, probably never. The next one up is likely who we draft this summer and he will be 2-4 years from playing meaningful minutes.

 

This is our roster after next season removing the debris and putting people where they should be on a good team.

 

XX-Petterson-Boeser

XX-Horvat-XX

Pearson-Gaudette-Leivo

Roussel-Beagle-Virtanen

 

Edler-XX

Hughes-XX

XX-Stecher

 

Where are those players coming from?  Trades will just means players out to offset ones coming in.  To draft them and have them develop to be ready we are already at the end of Horvat’s contract and would have wasted years of prime performance of him, Boeser, and Petterson.

 

Free agents have flaws, and are expensive... but many of them will be better than who we have now.

 

Panarin will be too expensive, Karlsson is  too old and has many miles on him even for his age, Myers and Gardiner are limited in terms of what they bring.  Lee is a very good player who will get money and term of a better player.

 

We should still try to get any of them.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I think it is a matter of being careful not to over extend our selves on cap space. UFA signings can effect your cap space down the road. Maybe at a time when you need the space to sign your star talent as they come off of their entrance level contracts.

There is also good ufa signings and bad ones done to just get fans excited and buy season tickets. Karlsson has got foot troubles that could really reduce his effectiveness and shorten his career. Do you want to be tied in for big money and term with him?

Fans like me are not against UFA signings we just want it done sensibly. Not just for a quick fix and hurt us 3 years from now. 

I would like to see them clear some more space first. Sutter ,Spooner plus anyone else who is not in the long term plans. Get what ever assets from them that they can but the key is to clear out as much space as possible. We can't forget about Luongo's contract and the potential recapture issue. Some fans think you just ignore it , stick your head in the sand. That could be disastrous.

If they go after UFA's I would prefer it to be only the high end players that are given big long term deals. Suck as Panarin. Someone who is worth paying top dollars to and worth a six to seven year deal. Even if it was just one top end player. Just keep in mind that if you pay top dollars for a UFA and he doesn't produce then you have set the bar for what players like Petey and Hughes will want. Teams create their own salary structures. 

If there isn't top end players that are willing to sign here then they should look for a couple of mid road signings who come on short term deals. Maybe with the intent to move at the deadline. 

UFA signings can be a real boost for the club but could also hurt us long term. As it has to other clubs.

Buyer be ware.

 

Edited April 14, 2019 by appleboy

[Provost]

22 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Those middling UFAs will ruin our coming draft spot.  Our kids should be the ones leading us to where we finish.  I don’t want us to get an unnatural bump up in the standings because of middling UFA signings.  

We have done our bottom of the league stint.  We have enough pieces to not be the worst in the league.  In the tiers of draft players, there generally isn’t a lot of difference between the guy you draft at 8 and the guy you draft at 15.  You just have to pick the right guy and/or luck out.

 

The downside of skidding along the bottom for the next couple years, even if we could be as bad as teams like Ottawa... is that we actually have to re-sign our star young guys in that window as well.  Do you think they will want to commit to spending their entire prime on a losing team?

 

Tanking becomes a continuous cycle.

[appleboy]

20 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Those middling UFAs will ruin our coming draft spot.  Our kids should be the ones leading us to where we finish.  I don’t want us to get an unnatural bump up in the standings because of middling UFA signings.  

If they can land a real star player that can help for years to come then our draft spot doesn't matter. If they can't land a star then One year show me deals with the hopes of a TDL move for picks. The emergence of Petey, Boeser, Hughes. Horvat and Goal tending have already put us out of top five picks anyway. That ship has sailed. Lets hope they land someone special this year.  

I think we will be hoping to land talent latter in the draft going forward.  If Benning can acquire more picks we can build up the organization through volume selections. Hoping to find a gem or two. 

[10pavelbure96]

6 hours ago, Dixon Ward said:

Signing Karlsson if, in a dream scenario, he wanted to play here, would immediately solve our backend.  Edler is one of the best #2 guys in the league and could finally play that.  Hughes could pair with Tanev to form a great 2nd pair with alot of tools.  Stecher/Woo would battle for that spot long term.  Leaving room for Hutton. Juolevi would eventually take over for Edler. Everything would be in its rightful place and our depth would immediately be very good.

 

Edler Karlsson 

Hughes Tanev

Hutton Stecher 

Juolevi Schenn

Sautner Woo

Brisebois Rafferty

Teves

Tryamkin?

 

I would go to battle with that top 4.  With the inevitable injuries, we have 9-10 legit nhl defenseman. 

 

I think, with Markstrom, Edler, and Petersson here, we might just have a chance to land him.  Then we could focus on forward I  the draft.

Good idea except the draft is before July 1st free agency. Unless you mean next years draft

[appleboy]

When you look at our forward group we have quit a few Rfa's who are going to need some decisions made on. We have too many players as it is and if you want to add then something will need to give. Players like Spooner and Sutter complicate things.

There are quit a few interesting forwards who might hit the open market. Skinner, Kevin Hayes and William Karlsson to just name a few. 

Maybe they really clean house forget the defense and go all in on the forward group. Then bring back Edler and keep Tanev. Focus on our D in the draft. Next year try to resign Tryamkin.  

Move Tanev at the trade deadline this year. rebuilding the defense through the ufa market this year looks troublesome. I don't see anyone that I would like long term.

 

This could be an interesting summer. Maybe make or break . Set them up nicely or create a long term disaster. NO PREASSURE JIM.

[aGENT]

I'd prefer to stay away from the top echelon of UFA's and focus on 2nd pair D and eventual 2nd line wingers (though they may initially play higher up while we wait for kids to arrive).

 

Target guys like Stralman, Nelson, Dzingel etc and otherwise focus on trades to acquire additional 2nd pair/2nd line guys (as well as a F at the draft, though that won't likely bare fruit until next season).

 

Also try to get Tryamkin back.

 

 

Edited April 14, 2019 by aGENT

[Provost]

1 minute ago, aGENT said:

I'd prefer to stay away from the top echelon of UFA's and focus on 2nd pair D and eventual 2nd line wingers (though they may initially play higher up while we wait for kids to arrive).

 

Target guys like Stralman, Nelson, Dzingel etc and otherwise focus on trades to acquire additional 2nd pair/2nd line guys (as well as a F at the draft, though that won't likely bare fruit until next season).

 

Also try to get Tryamkin back.

 

 

What kids arriving for the top line spots?

 

There is nothing in the pipeline that will be ready for years, not even enough to replace expiring contracts.

 

We have a bunch of middle 6 forwards and 4-8th D.  The prospects we “do” have fit into those slots as well.

 

Benning has accumulated a bunch of middling players.  That is fine if you eventually move on from them for assets.  This is the time to do that.

 

We need top end talent, we have none coming, and no way to get them as we aren’t likely to draft in the top 5 consistently over the next 5 years.  Any 1st round picks we do get are going to be years away from the top end of the NHL when we draft them.  Trades just shuffle the deck chairs around and you are unlikely to get a top line/pairing players without giving one up  in a different position.

 

Do you want to be negotiating Horvst’s next contract extension having not given him a decent winger his entire career?

 

 

[Hairy Kneel]

1 hour ago, 189lb enforcers? said:

Totally agree(d).

I didn’t want any UFA help out of lotto contention last year, the year before or the year before. 

EP and Marky are the reasons were are picking in the middle, but not without the puck support of those UFAs. 

I wanted this roster to holistically bottom out and JB keeps doing his damnedest to prevent it. 

 

I’m not a fan of his work outside the draft, but if he can pile up some picks ahead of the hometown draft, that would be great. Actually TRY to build through the draft, instead of what this has all boiled down to, thus far. 

I think we held on to the twins 3 years too long. And that inflated where we were in the rebuild. 

[aGENT]

3 minutes ago, Provost said:

What kids arriving for the top line spots?

 

There is nothing in the pipeline that will be ready for years, not even enough to replace expiring contracts.

 

We have a bunch of middle 6 forwards and 4-8th D.  The prospects we “do” have fit into those slots as well.

 

Benning has accumulated a bunch of middling players.  That is fine if you eventually move on from them for assets.  This is the time to do that.

 

We need top end talent, we have none coming, and no way to get them as we aren’t likely to draft in the top 5 consistently over the next 5 years.  Any 1st round picks we do get are going to be years away from the top end of the NHL when we draft them.  Trades just shuffle the deck chairs around and you are unlikely to get a top line/pairing players without giving one up  in a different position.

 

Do you want to be negotiating Horvst’s next contract extension having not given him a decent winger his entire career?

 

 

This year's first for a forward IMO.

 

Woo and Juolevi both project to top 4 as well.

 

Please note where our current top/core players have come from...the draft. You're not going to fill those holes via UFA. I mean one here or there is fine perhaps (or via trade as a more likely alternative) but it shouldn't be used as a shortcut to building. 

 

I think we'll see a couple solid but not elite UFA's and likely a trade or two (likely of some of our players CDC would perhaps prefer not to move). But we're almost certainly not adding the likes of Panarin or Karlsson.

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

This year's first for a forward IMO.

 

Woo and Juolevi both project to top 4 as well.

 

Please note where our current top/core players have come from...the draft. You're not going to fill those holes via UFA. I mean one here or there is fine perhaps (or via trade as a more likely alternative) but it shouldn't be used as a shortcut to building. 

 

I think we'll see a couple solid but not elite UFA's and likely a trade or two (likely of some of our players CDC would perhaps prefer not to move). But we're almost certainly not adding the likes of Panarin or Karlsson.

I agree on the most part.  However, if we can get EK we should.  He’s a uniquely gifted player, who will be part of our core for the length of his contract.  

[ilduce39]

Man, if Karlsson is at all interested I think you have to make a serious 7 year, 10+ Million pitch to him.  The way Edler has been playing the past 2 seasons those two would make a fantastic pairing.  I doubt he’s interested, but damn.  

 

Edler-Karlsson

Hughes-Tanev

Hutton(Juolevi)-Stecher 

would be pretty fun to watch feeding the forward core.

 

Add Ferland up front.  

 

It’s a pipe dream (and maybe missing one more skilled forward) but that would still be a fun group to watch. 

[appleboy]

31 minutes ago, Alflives said:

I agree on the most part.  However, if we can get EK we should.  He’s a uniquely gifted player, who will be part of our core for the length of his contract.  

You don't worry about his injuries?   They will need to sign this guy for 7 years.   

[Maniwaki Canuck]

17 minutes ago, appleboy said:

When you look at our forward group we have quit a few Rfa's who are going to need some decisions made on. We have too many players as it is and if you want to add then something will need to give. Players like Spooner and Sutter complicate things.

There are quit a few interesting forwards who might hit the open market. Skinner, Kevin Hayes and William Karlsson to just name a few. 

Maybe they really clean house forget the defense and go all in on the forward group. Then bring back Edler and keep Tanev. Focus on our D in the draft. Next year try to resign Tryamkin.  

Move Tanev at the trade deadline this year. rebuilding the defense through the ufa market this year looks troublesome. I don't see anyone that I would like long term.

 

This could be an interesting summer. Maybe make or break . Set them up nicely or create a long term disaster. NO PREASSURE JIM.

Absolutely agree with trying to move some of our forward depth before the draft for picks.  Ericksson, Sutter, Spooner, Schaller, Granlund, and Goldovin  at a minimum should all be in play.  We aren't likely to succeed in most cases or get much value back, even for Sutter, but it's about making roster space. 

If we can get one of the worthwhile younger ufa forwards like Duchene, Hayes, Eberle, Nelson, Lee, Donskoi, Karlsson, Ferland, Connolly, or Dzingle, that would be huge.  Another legit top-6 forward to play with Bo has to be a priority.  Two would be even better!  Move some top-6 in, some 'tweeners down, and some bottom-6 out..

On D, I'm coming around to the Karlsson or bust position.  Go big or go home.  Assuming we re-sign Edler, we don't need any help on the left side, and overpaying on Myers looks like a bad bet.  Would move Hutton for any reasonable return also. 

Capfriendly estimates we have $27,135,835 in free cap space for next year and $47,866,668 for 2020-1.  That's a lot, even figuring in new contracts for Brock and Edler.  We can definitely afford to take a swing at some higher end FAs.  Petey and Hughes are on entry-level deals for another 2 years.  We have the chance to improve our lineup and become a playoff team again while our young guys are still growing.  Now is the time!

[Provost]

47 minutes ago, aGENT said:

This year's first for a forward IMO.

 

Woo and Juolevi both project to top 4 as well.

 

Please note where our current top/core players have come from...the draft. You're not going to fill those holes via UFA. I mean one here or there is fine perhaps (or via trade as a more likely alternative) but it shouldn't be used as a shortcut to building. 

 

I think we'll see a couple solid but not elite UFA's and likely a trade or two (likely of some of our players CDC would perhaps prefer not to move). But we're almost certainly not adding the likes of Panarin or Karlsson.

Neither Woo, nor Juolevi really project there... we might get lucky and they develop to that point several years down the road, but they are far off.  Go check out recent rankings of prospects not in the NHL.  Neither of them are there.  TSN had Hughes, Gaudette, and Demko from us in the top 50.  All three of the guys on the list are now already in our lineup.

It is math.  You can't build exclusively through the draft.  If you get really, really lucky, and are drafting in the top 10 every single year (= missing the playoffs every single year), you get one player per year who plays in the top half of your roster.  Each year the guys you already have get a year older and closer to getting paid as their ELCs expire and eventually roll off to unrestricted free agency.  You can never get ahead unless you draft a true superstar who is better than the guy who is getting older.

We drafted that superstar in Petterson, or as close as we are likely to get.  We have a few more good pieces in Boeser, Horvat, and Hughes.

Keeping this year's 1st round pick, that player is probably in our lineup in 2-3 years and the moment we draft him will immediately be one of our closest and best prospects.  

We start negotiating Petterson's and Hughes' new contracts in a year.  Horvat's in three years.  The price tags on those are higher, the worse our team is.

Trading doesn't often end up adding top end players without subtracting top end players.  I would say of any picks, this year's first should not be on the table.  They are going to be ready in the window we need them.  Next year and beyond, trade every first round pick if you want, as long as you are getting a young club controlled guy who fits in the top half of your roster.  That is the only way you get a critical mass hit at the same time for a window to contend.

Getting UFAs doesn't mean you stop drafting.  We still draft plenty of guys and some of them will end up in our lineup, though unlikely at the top. 

 

[Salacious Crumb]

4 minutes ago, Provost said:

Neither Woo, nor Juolevi really project there... we might get lucky and they develop to that point several years down the road, but they are far off.  Go check out recent rankings of prospects not in the NHL.  Neither of them are there.  TSN had Hughes, Gaudette, and Demko from us in the top 50.  All three of the guys on the list are now already in our lineup.

It is math.  You can't build exclusively through the draft.  If you get really, really lucky, and are drafting in the top 10 every single year (= missing the playoffs every single year), you get one player per year who plays in the top half of your roster.  Each year the guys you already have get a year older and closer to getting paid as their ELCs expire and eventually roll off to unrestricted free agency.  You can never get ahead unless you draft a true superstar who is better than the guy who is getting older.

We drafted that superstar in Petterson, or as close as we are likely to get.  We have a few more good pieces in Boeser, Horvat, and Hughes.

Keeping this year's 1st round pick, that player is probably in our lineup in 2-3 years and the moment we draft him will immediately be one of our closest and best prospects.  

We start negotiating Petterson's and Hughes' new contracts in a year.  Horvat's in three years.  The price tags on those are higher, the worse our team is.

Trading doesn't often end up adding top end players without subtracting top end players.  I would say of any picks, this year's first should not be on the table.  They are going to be ready in the window we need them.  Next year and beyond, trade every first round pick if you want, as long as you are getting a young club controlled guy who fits in the top half of your roster.  That is the only way you get a critical mass hit at the same time for a window to contend.

Getting UFAs doesn't mean you stop drafting.  We still draft plenty of guys and some of them will end up in our lineup, though unlikely at the top. 

 

You are correct on all fronts but still good problems to have no?

 

If a team has bad contracts that is obviously less than optimal but having too many good players on fair contracts means some have to be traded for futures which is just part of the natural cycle of a team and not a hurtful ‘problem’ perhaps...

[Maniwaki Canuck]

People need to be a bit more positive about Benning's ufa track record.  Ericksson was the only time he truly messed up trying to land a top-end guy and most of the hockey world thought that was a good move at the time.  Miller and Vrbata were both successes, even though the latter was only for the first year.   Every other ufa signing was of the depth or place-holding variety and should be judged by those standards. 

Every GM makes mistakes unless they're not taking any chances, which amounts to not trying.  It's no reason to shut down all future operations.  I'm hoping Benning gets back in the saddle during free agency because all successful teams make use of it.

[JeremyCuddles]

Unless the UFAs are 18-22 we don't want them. We are a rebuilding team and players over 22 are way too old.