[Trade] Lightning trade J.T. Miller to Canucks for Marek Mazanec, 2019 3rd-round pick, 2020 conditional 1st-round pick

[Smashian Kassian]

8 minutes ago, Baggins said:

I'd say it's fair value now if it's a bottom half pick. But Tampa has to wait up to two years to get that pick. They're gambling on where that pick will be in exchange for waiting. I'd call that a bonus in the trade. 

They're not gambling on anything. Getting a 1st in their situation is a huge win for them. Even if they don't use it to pick is an asset they can trade to improve their team later.

 

I'd agree fair value if its a bottom half pick, although the strength of the 2020 class could tip that a bit if we just squeek in & its closer to 15 than 20.

 

5 minutes ago, aGENT said:

Subban isn't what he once was and has a $9m hit.

 

Miller is a better player than Hamonic and only had 2 years left on his deal, not 4.

 

Your assessment is off.

 

Miller & Hamonic are comparable players. Hamonic was younger at the time & had been a top 4 D for the Islanders. Hasn't been as good in Calgary but that doesn't change what he was before.

 

TB was also under significant pressure to make this move to clear cap space.

 

If my assessment is off, yours is way off. Paul Gaustad once got a 1st at the deadline, not every trade should be judged off of that one.

[1st Round Draft Pick]

Does anyone know if the 2020/2021 1st round draft pick we need to give to TB has to be the 'natural' Vancouver canucks pick, or can we trade for another 1st round pick in 2020/2021 and satisfy TB's 1st round pick using that other 1st round pick?

[babalu]

1 minute ago, 1st Round Draft Pick said:

Does anyone know if the 2020/2021 1st round draft pick we need to give to TB has to be the 'natural' Vancouver canucks pick, or can we trade for another 1st round pick in 2020/2021 and satisfy TB's 1st round pick using that other 1st round pick?

It's our pick

[aGENT]

5 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

They're not gambling on anything. Getting a 1st in their situation is a huge win for them. Even if they don't use it to pick is an asset they can trade to improve their team later.

 

I'd agree fair value if its a bottom half pick, although the strength of the 2020 class could tip that a bit if we just squeek in & its closer to 15 than 20.

 

 

Miller & Hamonic are comparable players. Hamonic was younger at the time & had been a top 4 D for the Islanders. Hasn't been as good in Calgary but that doesn't change what he was before.

 

TB was also under significant pressure to make this move to clear cap space.

 

If my assessment is off, yours is way off. Paul Gaustad once got a 1st at the deadline, not every trade should be judged off of that one.

Hamonic is a very solid but one dimensional, 2nd pair D. Miller's worth more.

[Phat Fingers]

4 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

They're not gambling on anything. Getting a 1st in their situation is a huge win for them. Even if they don't use it to pick is an asset they can trade to improve their team later.

 

I'd agree fair value if its a bottom half pick, although the strength of the 2020 class could tip that a bit if we just squeek in & its closer to 15 than 20.

 

 

Miller & Hamonic are comparable players. Hamonic was younger at the time & had been a top 4 D for the Islanders. Hasn't been as good in Calgary but that doesn't change what he was before.

 

TB was also under significant pressure to make this move to clear cap space.

 

If my assessment is off, yours is way off. Paul Gaustad once got a 1st at the deadline, not every trade should be judged off of that one.

Tampa didnt have to rush this deal.  They have until October to get their cap under.  

 

This was not a cap dump.  Miller is a legit top 6 forward.  

 

Give me an example of what a top 6 forward just getting to their prime on a reasonable 4 year deal is worth?  A mid to late 1st, a 3rd and a minor league goalie seems good to me.

 

With Bo, Brock, Elias, Podz, Miller, Baer, Virtannen, Gaudette, Hogs, MacEwan, Keppen Madden, Lockwood, Gadz and Lind  as our forwards

 

Hughes, OJ, Woo, Rathbone, Stecher, Hutton, Trymakin etc as our defence 

 

Demko, Marky and Dipeitro as our goalie youth, not including anyone over 30 in the above and there are lots i missed.  That is largely untapped depth coming into our system. 

 

In that group there are 4 current 20g scorers 3 all stars a Hobey Baker winner and a Calder winner. 

 

These guys are getting better and just got better.  

 

We aren't going to be relying on getting 20g out of guys like Sutter and Eriksson anymore, thank god.  

[oldnews]

42 minutes ago, Provost said:

Two things, 

 

It isn’t JUST teams and players knowing we need to add, it is ALSO what alternatives are open to us.  Oldnews in an attempt to show how many D were available wrote a list earlier in the thread.  It was damning his own point since there weren’t many top 4 guys on the list, except Ristolainen, and that is someone it would be handy to have a 1st round pick as a trade chip if we had any hopes of getting g him.  Myers agent knows there are more teams that need him and he will have options (a good BATNA) so he can push really hard in negotiations.  If Benning doesn’t land Myers, he has to hope he can find a filler guy like Stralman before other teams snag them all.

 

 

The point you attempt to slip in is utterly laughable.

 

You evidently have no idea what you're talking about,.

 

As opposed to your dismissive pretenses  - facts:

 

Risotlainen goes without saying.

Stralman - was 3rd in minutes on a very deep, contending Tampa blueline.

Cernak was 4th on that same blueline.

Girardi was 5th - an exception - playing behind Hedman, McDonagh, Stralman and Cernak.

Mayfield was 4th on a 100+ pt Islanders team

Dillon was 5th on a contending Sharks blueline.

Myers 4th on a contending Winnipeg blueline.

Hainsey was a top 4 in Toronto -  Morgan Reilly's principal partner - and easily the best Leaf defenseman in the playoffs.

Benn was 4th on the Habs blueline

Kronwall was 4 on the Redwings blueline.

Engelland was 3rd on the Vegas blueline.

 

Those are just the objective facts - many of them playing on contending teams.

'Er, but uh, I don't think they're really 'top 4' - I have my own varying and subjective definition of a 'top 4'.

 

It's also a list limited - beyond Risto and Myers - to affordable placeholders or trade targets - in the case of UFAs many of them veterans tested year after year who can handle hard minutes and many of whom could be had for a few years (or less) of term.

 

Moreover the term "top 4" is relatively meaningless, particularly the way people like  yourself use it.

 

The reality - Tanev was/is a 'top 4' here.

Stecher had a borderline 'breakout' season last year - he may not be a 'top 4' but he's not a traditional 10 minute 3rd pairing D either - he played 19:55 ice time/game last year, and did a damn good job of it.

 

The team needs a heavier, hard minutes type presence on the right side - I could not care less what you propose to name a 'top 4' - the bottom line is that the team would be improved by many of those options - most of them able to handle 20 minutes in a matchup role.

 

Moreover, the advantage of signing one of the placeholders can be additional 'leverage' to 'weaponize' cap for futures while at the same time remaining flexible and leaving the fpossiblity of a Jet Woo forcing their way onto the roster in the next year or two.

 

Clearly you're too lazy to do your homework - and too arrogant to look closer/think it out.

 

If you're going to patronize people with smartass comments about reading slower or their comprehension levels (typical pedantic arrogance out of a self-styled 'professor' type) - then you might want to step up your own game so you have the substance to back your posturing. 

Ironically, you don't.

 

 

Edited June 24, 2019 by oldnews

[Smashian Kassian]

Just now, Phat Fingers said:

Tampa didnt have to rush this deal.  They have until October to get their cap under.  

 

This was not a cap dump.  Miller is a legit top 6 forward.  

 

Give me an example of what a top 6 forward just getting to their prime on a reasonable 4 year deal is worth?  A mid to late 1st, a 3rd and a minor league goalie seems good to me.

 

With Bo, Brock, Elias, Podz, Miller, Baer, Virtannen, Gaudette, Hogs, MacEwan, Keppen Madden, Lockwood, Gadz and Lind  as our forwards

 

Hughes, OJ, Woo, Rathbone, Stecher, Hutton, Trymakin etc as our defence 

 

Demko, Marky and Dipeitro as our goalie youth, not including anyone over 30 in the above and there are lots i missed.  That is largely untapped depth coming into our system. 

 

In that group there are 4 current 20g scorers 3 all stars a Hobey Baker winner and a Calder winner. 

 

These guys are getting better and just got better.  

 

We aren't going to be relying on getting 20g out of guys like Sutter and Eriksson anymore, thank god.  

 

I agree with what you've said here. (Aside from that defense, its still not good enough, the prospects are promising but haven't proven anything yet) And I never said Miller was a cap dump.

 

But there's the caveat again, mid/late first. I agree that's fair value for a top 6 forward under contract.

 

But we haven't had a mid/late first in 5 years. So hopefully we get one in the next 2.

[Provost]

25 minutes ago, Phat Fingers said:

Provost.

 

 

IMO you are also viewing this deal in isolation.  There seems to be an assumption that Tampa only talked to Vancouver and that the other 30 teams all passed on Miller.  

 

That assumes that no one wanted a 26 y/o on a 4 year contract that plays all 3 forward spots,, good in the dot, good two way guy, 3 x 20 goal scorer, 218lbs and has played 82games in 4 straight years.

The entire point is knowing at what price you walk away at, so you need to know that regardless of what other teams may or may not be interested.  I a not assuming that other teams weren’t interested at all.  In negotiations you are literally trained to ignore that so you don’t get into an auction scenario and pay more than what you wanted.

 

There are other deals to be made, and he is not elite or a star, so you can did equivalent talent elsewhere.

 

You can easily look st the other two deals that happened that day and they reflect an an entirely different market than what Benning did.  A 1st round pick to take on Marleau for one year, from a team with an internal cap?  Subban for a couple 2nds.

 

There are also a lot of UFA forwards available.  There was no pressing need to make a deal for an OK upgrade before seeing how other things shook out and what assets you might need to remedy the key need of 1 or 2 top four D.

Edited June 25, 2019 by Provost

[Phat Fingers]

9 minutes ago, Smashian Kassian said:

 

I agree with what you've said here. (Aside from that defense, its still not good enough, the prospects are promising but haven't proven anything yet) And I never said Miller was a cap dump.

 

But there's the caveat again, mid/late first. I agree that's fair value for a top 6 forward under contract.

 

But we haven't had a mid/late first in 5 years. So hopefully we get one in the next 2.

If the pick is a top ten then JB has failed.  It is a risk, but so is drafting a guy like EP40.  JT is a 4 time 82 game guy, 3x 20g scorer already at 26.  This isn't a high risk player, but a blue chip guy who is a 200ft player.  

 

If JT can come close to 82 games in the next 4 years and be a solid 20g guy, JB wins the deal as long as the pick isnt a top 10.  

[Kanukfanatic]

1 minute ago, Phat Fingers said:

If the pick is a top ten then JB has failed.  It is a risk, but so is drafting a guy like EP40.  JT is a 4 time 82 game guy, 3x 20g scorer already at 26.  This isn't a high risk player, but a blue chip guy who is a 200ft player.  

 

If JT can come close to 82 games in the next 4 years and be a solid 20g guy, JB wins the deal as long as the pick isnt a top 10.  

If JT plays 82 games each year for the next four years hitting the 20 goal mark each year, JB wins the deal even if it is a 5-10 pick imo.

 

With a 5-10 pick, most fans would be happy to end up eventually getting exactly what you describe in a player. 

[Baggins]

26 minutes ago, Provost said:

Two things, 

 

It isn’t JUST teams and players knowing we need to add, it is ALSO what alternatives are open to us.  Oldnews in an attempt to show how many D were available wrote a list earlier in the thread.  It was damning his own point since there weren’t many top 4 guys on the list, except Ristolainen, and that is someone it would be handy to have a 1st round pick as a trade chip if we had any hopes of getting g him.  Myers agent knows there are more teams that need him and he will have options (a good BATNA) so he can push really hard in negotiations.  If Benning doesn’t land Myers, he has to hope he can find a filler guy like Stralman before other teams snag them all.

 

As far as “disaster” happening.  I don’t know if it will, just my point is that the risk is absolutely there.  It is probably more likely than not that we miss the playoffs this year.  We had a lot of things go right last year with Petterson having a great first half, Markstrom playing as a top 5-10 goalie most of the year, and a bunch of teams in the West that were truly awful.  Even if we are a better team, it will take a lot for us to move up substantially in the standings.

The alternate is waiting for a better deal. There is a whole summer ahead and he may even wait till the season starts and look at another trade. 

 

Of course there's a risk. That's why Tampa is willing to wait up to two years. That'll be their real payoff in exchange for waiting. On the other hand they may be waiting two years to get what Miller is worth now. Everything is risk/reward. Even if they get a top 15 or top 10 pick, they had to wait two years for it. That's the trade off in making them wait.

 

You worry too much. Honestly, I don't get worked up or fret about anything sports related. There's enough real life, that actually affects my life, to worry about.

[oldnews]

1 minute ago, Phat Fingers said:

Tampa didnt have to rush this deal.  They have until October to get their cap under.  

 

This was not a cap dump.  Miller is a legit top 6 forward.  

 

Exactly.

 

Further - Tampa is still sitting on their cap dump(s).

They have a roster that no longer has Miller - but is still paying 5.8 million for Callahan.  They're also losing Stralman, and Girardi ('3' and '5' on that blueline)....

 

People might want to get real about the state that contending teams are facing due to cap and the high cost of dumping cap.

 

Most of them are having to shed players in trades or lose them in free agency,

 

Winnipeg had to deal Trouba and may very well lose Myers as well

San Jose had to shed Braun, likely Dillon as well - Nyqvist, Thornton, Pavelski, Donskoi all UFAs, Meier and Lebanc RFAs to pay....

Toronto (losely included in 'contenders') had to spend a 1st to move Marleau, losing Hainsey and Gardiner - and still in cap trouble and dealing with an even shallower blueline.

Columbus - Duchene, Panarin and Dzingel are all expriing UFAs - Murray and Werenski both RFAs....

Nashville - moved Subban underwhelmingly, have Simmonds expiring.

not going to bother going through a number of other clubs (like Vegas) - the point should be clear enough at this point.

 

A league which already enjoys a lot of relative parity, is seeing a number of better teams levelling out a bit more - and will have to get crafty and/or have built within with emerging youth to try to sustain their edge. 

 

 

 

 

[Phat Fingers]

4 minutes ago, Provost said:

The entire point is knowing at what price you walk away at, so you need to know that regardless of what other teams may or may not be interested.

 

There are other deals to be made, and he is not elite or a star, so you can did equivalent talent elsewhere.

 

You can easily look st the other two deals that happened that day and they reflect an an entirely different market than what Benning did.  A 1st round pick to take on Marleau for one year, from a team with an internal cap?  Subban for a couple 2nds.

 

There are also a lot of UFA forwards available.  There was no pressing need to make a deal for an OK upgrade before seeing how other things shook out and what assets you might need to remedy the key need of 1 or 2 top four D.

Different deals, Marleau is a pure cap dump.  He won't be counted on for anything.  TO has to sign Marner before july 1st to prevent offer sheets.  Everyone knows how much an offer sheet could mess them up this year.  

 

To sign Marner, they had to pay someone to take Marleau. 

 

Tampa needs to lose salary, but they didnt need to pay anyone to take JT.  

 

Subban has a 9m cap hit.  Rumour had it that Vancouver balked at taking on the full 9m.  Guess JB did have a limit and did step back.  

[Canuck Surfer]

On 6/23/2019 at 10:22 AM, oldnews said:

And really, if the proposal were to play Panarin with Pettersson it just creates another problem in that who then plays RW on that line - or is it supposed to succeed without any real complementary forecheck, hard areas presence, etc.

I'm not really interested in a younger version of the Sedins and Vrbata. 

Pettersson needed a powerforward on one of his wings.  Panarin aint that, period.

 

I don't disagree at all. With Miller its a blueprint balanced line But there is an obvious counterpoint, even two.

 

With world class talent, and out of this world agility, Panarin would help the line < Panarin / Pettersson / Boeser > craft its own identity. And the team with it a style of play. In basketball terms a fastbreaking, full pressure team. Always on the fly, with constant movement at speed. Defensively & offensively. Petey very good at this defensively. Tampa does this with some its lines. Chicago as well, including in championship years. And teams cannot guard them. They do have a style of play that takes risks, and has match up issues? Creates turnovers for & against. But owning more talent & speed, the law of averages says the more possessions and speed, open space, that can be created? The more likely your uber talented threesome outscore opposition in a track meet.

 

The old Oilers of the 80's as well, and Pittsburgh have used this game style. And we drafted Coffee Hughes to help turbocharge such a game style.

 

A second counter point is that Miller & Boeser for Pettersson does not flank him with that world class speed. Miller has NHL speed, uses it well. But is not a speed ''as a weapon'' player. It does provide three wicked possession game players?  And add's a glue guy to fore check, hit the corners, punish opposing D.  In my own interpretation?  That fits a Horvat line, an improved version of Pearson to play with them. With an addendum that Boeser himself, nor Pettersson for that matter, don't have any fear of work rate, or hard area's.  Boeser is approaching power forward size, does a great job protecting the puck and playing in tight.  Adding fore check pressure, and getting more into puck battles a natural progression I'm sure coaches are working with him on also regardless.

 

We know Benning wants a D in UFA. Adding a mid priced free agent, say Zucarello, might help accomplish both. That would be a good summer.

 

 

[Canuck Surfer]

On 6/23/2019 at 10:22 AM, oldnews said:

And really, if the proposal were to play Panarin with Pettersson it just creates another problem in that who then plays RW on that line - or is it supposed to succeed without any real complementary forecheck, hard areas presence, etc.

I'm not really interested in a younger version of the Sedins and Vrbata. 

Pettersson needed a powerforward on one of his wings.  Panarin aint that, period.

 

I don't disagree at all. With Miller its a blueprint balanced line But there is an obvious counterpoint, even two.

 

With world class talent, and out of this world agility, Panarin would help the line < Panarin / Pettersson / Boeser > craft its own identity. And the team with it a style of play. In basketball terms a fastbreaking, full pressure team. Always on the fly, with constant movement at speed. Defensively & offensively. Petey very good at this defensively. Tampa does this with some its lines. Chicago as well, including in championship years. And teams cannot guard them. They do have a style of play that takes risks, and has match up issues? Creates turnovers for & against. But owning more talent & speed, the law of averages says the more possessions and speed, open space, that can be created? The more likely your uber talented threesome outscore opposition in a track meet.

 

The old Oilers of the 80's as well, and Pittsburgh have used this game style. And we drafted Coffee Hughes to help turbocharge such a game style.

 

A second counter point is that Miller & Boeser for Pettersson does not flank him with that world class speed. Miller has NHL speed, uses it well. But is not a speed ''as a weapon'' player. It does provide three wicked possession game players?  And add's a glue guy to fore check, hit the corners, punish opposing D.  In my own interpretation?  That fits a Horvat line, an improved version of Pearson to play with them. With an addendum that Boeser himself, nor Pettersson for that matter, don't have any fear of work rate, or hard area's.  Boeser is approaching power forward size, does a great job protecting the puck and playing in tight.  Adding fore check pressure, and getting more into puck battles a natural progression I'm sure coaches are working with him on also regardless.

 

We know Benning wants a D in UFA. Adding a mid priced free agent, say Zucarello, might help accomplish both. That would be a good summer.

 

 

[Canuck Surfer]

On 6/23/2019 at 10:22 AM, oldnews said:

And really, if the proposal were to play Panarin with Pettersson it just creates another problem in that who then plays RW on that line - or is it supposed to succeed without any real complementary forecheck, hard areas presence, etc.

I'm not really interested in a younger version of the Sedins and Vrbata. 

Pettersson needed a powerforward on one of his wings.  Panarin aint that, period.

 

I don't disagree at all. With Miller its a blueprint balanced line But there is an obvious counterpoint, even two.

 

With world class talent, and out of this world agility, Panarin would help the line < Panarin / Pettersson / Boeser > craft its own identity. And the team with it a style of play. In basketball terms a fastbreaking, full pressure team. Always on the fly, with constant movement at speed. Defensively & offensively. Petey very good at this defensively. Tampa does this with some its lines. Chicago as well, including in championship years. And teams cannot guard them. They do have a style of play that takes risks, and has match up issues? Creates turnovers for & against. But owning more talent & speed, the law of averages says the more possessions and speed, open space, that can be created? The more likely your uber talented threesome outscore opposition in a track meet.

 

The old Oilers of the 80's as well, and Pittsburgh have used this game style. And we drafted Coffee Hughes to help turbocharge such a game style.

 

A second counter point is that Miller & Boeser for Pettersson does not flank him with that world class speed. Miller has NHL speed, uses it well. But is not a speed ''as a weapon'' player. It does provide three wicked possession game players?  And add's a glue guy to fore check, hit the corners, punish opposing D.  In my own interpretation?  That fits a Horvat line, an improved version of Pearson to play with them. With an addendum that Boeser himself, nor Pettersson for that matter, don't have any fear of work rate, or hard area's.  Boeser is approaching power forward size, does a great job protecting the puck and playing in tight.  Adding fore check pressure, and getting more into puck battles a natural progression I'm sure coaches are working with him on also regardless.

 

We know Benning wants a D in UFA. Adding a mid priced free agent, say Zucarello, might help accomplish both. That would be a good summer.

 

 

[Canuck Surfer]

On 6/23/2019 at 10:22 AM, oldnews said:

And really, if the proposal were to play Panarin with Pettersson it just creates another problem in that who then plays RW on that line - or is it supposed to succeed without any real complementary forecheck, hard areas presence, etc.

I'm not really interested in a younger version of the Sedins and Vrbata. 

Pettersson needed a powerforward on one of his wings.  Panarin aint that, period.

 

I don't disagree at all. With Miller its a blueprint balanced line But there is an obvious counterpoint, even two.

 

With world class talent, and out of this world agility, Panarin would help the line < Panarin / Pettersson / Boeser > craft its own identity. And the team with it a style of play. In basketball terms a fastbreaking, full pressure team. Always on the fly, with constant movement at speed. Defensively & offensively. Petey very good at this defensively. Tampa does this with some its lines. Chicago as well, including in championship years. And teams cannot guard them. They do have a style of play that takes risks, and has match up issues? Creates turnovers for & against. But owning more talent & speed, the law of averages says the more possessions and speed, open space, that can be created? The more likely your uber talented threesome outscore opposition in a track meet.

 

The old Oilers of the 80's as well, and Pittsburgh have used this game style. And we drafted Coffee Hughes to help turbocharge such a game style.

 

A second counter point is that Miller & Boeser for Pettersson does not flank him with that world class speed. Miller has NHL speed, uses it well. But is not a speed ''as a weapon'' player. It does provide three wicked possession game players?  And add's a glue guy to fore check, hit the corners, punish opposing D.  In my own interpretation?  That fits a Horvat line, an improved version of Pearson to play with them. With an addendum that Boeser himself, nor Pettersson for that matter, don't have any fear of work rate, or hard area's.  Boeser is approaching power forward size, does a great job protecting the puck and playing in tight.  Adding fore check pressure, and getting more into puck battles a natural progression I'm sure coaches are working with him on also regardless.

 

We know Benning wants a D in UFA. Adding a mid priced free agent, say Zucarello, might help accomplish both. That would be a good summer.

[Gurn]

^ Third times the charm.

[apollo]

Say what you want but a 31st overall pick + the 2019 3rd and Mazanec is a bargain for a guy like JT on that contract. 

 

Well done Jim. My initial reaction was a little surprised and figured of we could have had PK, but after thinking about it logically, this is a solid trade. Jims done well. 

 

Trust me that 2020 31st overall pick will never be as good as JT. 

 

 

[Alflives]

10 minutes ago, apollo said:

Say what you want but a 31st overall pick + the 2019 3rd and Mazanec is a bargain for a guy like JT on that contract. 

 

Well done Jim. My initial reaction was a little surprised and figured of we could have had PK, but after thinking about it logically, this is a solid trade. Jims done well. 

 

Trust me that 2020 31st overall pick will never be as good as JT. 

 

 

I’m actually wondering if TBay wanted our 2019 second and 2019 third, and JB countered with the protected first, because he wanted Hoglander?