Coronavirus outbreak

[Kanukfanatic]

49 minutes ago, Petey40 said:

Thanks for the answers guys, I think I’m going to speak with my landlord and see if we can’t come to a mutual agreement. 
 

I think she actually owns this house completely so maybe she will be able to recognize how $&!#ty this is and allow me to pay even a little bit less.

Wait to see what the Feds do tomorrow imo.

[HI5]

5 minutes ago, Kanukfanatic said:

If people don't have to pay mortgages then, imo, people should be able to defer rent also.  Anything otherwise would be totally unfair.

Can they defer interest?

[Kanukfanatic]

Just now, HI5 said:

Can they defer interest?

We will see in the morning when the Feds make the announcement.  

[Boudrias]

29 minutes ago, stawns said:

There's no gold standard anymore, currency hasn't been backed up by anything tangible for a long time.  Ultimately it's just 1's and 0's in a machine, they could do it if they wanted to.

 

What they really need to do is wipe everyone's slate clean, a reset.  It's happened many times in the history of the world.

 

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/05/01/bronze-age-redux-on-debt-clean-slates-and-what-the-ancients-have-to-teach-u/

Your in a dream world. 

[Kanukfanatic]

48 minutes ago, stawns said:

There's no gold standard anymore, currency hasn't been backed up by anything tangible for a long time.  Ultimately it's just 1's and 0's in a machine, they could do it if they wanted to.

 

What they really need to do is wipe everyone's slate clean, a reset.  It's happened many times in the history of the world.

 

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/05/01/bronze-age-redux-on-debt-clean-slates-and-what-the-ancients-have-to-teach-u/

I no longer see your posts but someone quoted it, so I saw this one.

 

I agree with you 100%.  The monetary system is based on nothing. The governments can literally do whatever they want to call a reset. Hell, they literally just print money on whatever they want.

 

As you say, a reset has been done many many times in human history.  I am sure the billionaires would agree to whatever makes them stay at the top of the heap....

 

Edit: thanks for the link to that awesome read...

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Kanukfanatic

[stawns]

19 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Your in a dream world. 

Didn't say it was going to happen, I'm saying it should.

 

Truly, we don't know what's going to happen with this situation and we don't know the economic impact.  It's got the potential to crash the whole thing.

[stawns]

22 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

Your in a dream world. 

What's your solution if this goes on for months?  Months of people being out of work, a global trauma unlike anything we've seen in our lifetime and an economic fallout beyond anything we can imagine.........you figure we would just pick up as we were before it all?

[Boudrias]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

Didn't say it was going to happen, I'm saying it should.

 

Truly, we don't know what's going to happen with this situation and we don't know the economic impact.  It's got the potential to crash the whole thing.

That I can agree with you on. What I can see happen is a massive printing of money which will devalue the debt. It simply places a tax on everyone. People will accept the monetary handouts without realizing their buying power is shrinking. When you are a country like Canada that imports so much the fallout will be huge. 

[stawns]

4 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

That I can agree with you on. What I can see happen is a massive printing of money which will devalue the debt. It simply places a tax on everyone. People will accept the monetary handouts without realizing their buying power is shrinking. When you are a country like Canada that imports so much the fallout will be huge. 

Every country is going to need to do it.

[Boudrias]

4 minutes ago, stawns said:

What's your solution if this goes on for months?  Months of people being out of work, a global trauma unlike anything we've seen in our lifetime and an economic fallout beyond anything we can imagine.........you figure we would just pick up as we were before it all?

I don’t have a solution. I said above what I thought would happen. At a minimum we likely see the equivalent of the housing crisis the USA went thru in 2008. Our government is not being ran by the sharpest tools in the shed. At some point Canada’s creditworthiness will be brought into question. It is whether the Americans can survive or not that will make the real difference. They have a better chance than we do.

 

To some extent it is ironic that the energy industry was sacrificed in Canada to placate who knows what. I had hoped that exploiting oil could provide the cash Canada could use to develop a actual economic plan. Always have been price takers. Quite honestly if my fears come true I do not expect Canada will survive as one country. When the federal government cannot meet their promises the finger pointing will tear the country apart. Maybe I have to pessimistic an outlook.

[Boudrias]

15 minutes ago, stawns said:

What's your solution if this goes on for months?  Months of people being out of work, a global trauma unlike anything we've seen in our lifetime and an economic fallout beyond anything we can imagine.........you figure we would just pick up as we were before it all?

I don’t have a solution. I said above what I thought would happen. At a minimum we likely see the equivalent of the housing crisis the USA went thru in 2008. Our government is not being ran by the sharpest tools in the shed. At some point Canada’s creditworthiness will be brought into question. It is whether the Americans can survive or not that will make the real difference. They have a better chance than we do.

 

To some extent it is ironic that the energy industry was sacrificed in Canada to placate who knows what. I had hoped that exploiting oil could provide the cash Canada could use to develop a actual economic plan. Always have been price takers. Quite honestly if my fears come true I do not expect Canada will survive as one country. When the federal government cannot meet their promises the finger pointing will tear the country apart. Maybe I have to pessimistic an outlook.

[DeNiro]

1 hour ago, lmm said:

they could have avoided it, but it wouldhave been very unpopular to make sweeping changes without knowing how bad it would get. As gov't is in bed with business, gov't cannot stall business without proof. now we have proof, it will be interesting to see how the next pandemic plays out.

Gov't likes "evidence based" desicision making, now we have evidence

the evidence started to pile up once the first cruise ship was quarentined, but still that was not enough to swing popular opinion or business opinion 

it would have been deemed irresponsible to have to have solved this problem too early, because it would have seemed to have been heavy handed

 

just like climate change the public needs to feel the danger before it believes it to be real 

science is not good enough

People are employed by those same businesses.

 

You shut down business people lose their jobs.

 

You can’t just shut down all business and expect there not to be serious consequences.

 

The government needed to put financial support in place before any action could be taken otherwise you’d then have a surge in the homeless population. Then instead of people dying from Coronavirus you’d have people dying from starvation.

 

There was no avoiding where we’re at now without an even worse outcome.

[kenhodgejr]

By March of 2021 we will have a complete economic breakdown in Canada. Another Great Recession except this one will be worse. The government will borrow money and print cash as long as it can to keep things afloat a little while longer. Many other countries will do the same. 

 

A new global economic model will be implemented. 

 

Great future cities will emerge like Neom in Saudi Arabia along with new regions of power. USA will be less important. A civil war might happen in America. WW3 might still happen which will allow the shift in global power and the right off of debts. Now might be the time to buy real estate in Egypt on the Red Sea Coast. 

 

I dont trust Jack Ma. 4 months ago he was running an internet business now he's the guy donating Corona tests? Him Bill Gates and some of the other Silicon Valley moguls have me suspicious. 

 

I could be totally wrong. This agenda could fall apart. Nobody knows the future. People predicting things are often wrong. Everything could go back to normal in a months time. Only thing to fear is fear itself. 

 

Get ready for mandatory curfew and vaccines. 

[Petey Castiglione]

4 hours ago, nux4lyfe said:

Funny you say that, I live close a Philippine lady that  works at VGH, I go for jogs around my neighborhood and one day I ran in to her, She was gardening and we made small talk.

We talked about what to plant in what season etc..Anyways one day I was driving by and I saw her standing in the pissing rain in her scrubs and lunch kit underneath an umbrella waiting for the bus. I thought about exact same thing as you did.

I've received soo much medical care in this past 6 months and the nurses have been nothing but outstanding, It really puts things in to perspective..Nurses are so under appreciated.

 

I have the up most respect for them.

Thanks for the story as this one hits close to home.  If you can, next time offer her a ride.  Not that you need a reward for doing a good deed but I bet you'll get an extremely good dinner or two out of it.

 

In these times, we all should remember the humanity in all of us.  Not what we can do for ourselves but what we can do to help others.   

 

In saying that, I'd like to thank everyone on these boards for their perspectives and participation in these discussions. I've learned a lot about hockey (and other things) the 10+ years I've been here.  Even though I don't agree with everyone, I want to try and understand everyone's perspective. 

 

If we can all come to accept our differences and embrace them we don't need to fight but can still have great discussions while learning and improving along the way.  Keep an open mind, we can get through this together.  

[Caknuckle Puck]

https://theintercept.com/2020/03/17/coronavirus-stimulus-bill-andy-biggs/

"ANTI-GAY LAWMAKER VOTED AGAINST CORONAVIRUS BILL BECAUSE IT “REDEFINED FAMILY” BY PROVIDING SICK LEAVE TO DOMESTIC PARTNERS"

lol...

[MystifyNCrucify]

292 cases in ireland. They expect 15000 by the end of the month. For a population of just under 5 million thats crazy. 

 

Sigh this is gonna get a whole lot worse before it gets better. 

 

We arent on lockdown yet, but the government is finally taking this seriously  so that could change this week. 

[Jaimito]

Pretty doom forecast model here. 

 

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1239975682643357696.html

 

 

Jeremy C. Young

@jeremycyoung

   Profile picture

17 hours ago, 21 tweets, 4 min read

  

We can now read the Imperial College report on COVID-19 that led to the extreme measures we've seen in the US this week. Read it; it's terrifying. I'll offer a summary in this thread; please correct me if I've gotten it wrong.

imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial… 

The Imperial College team plugged infection and death rates from China/Korea/Italy into epidemic modeling software and ran a simulation: what happens if the US does absolutely nothing -- if we treat COVID-19 like the flu, go about our business, and let the virus take its course? 

Here's what would happen: 80% of Americans would get the disease. 0.9% of them would die. Between 4 and 8 percent of all Americans over the age of 70 would die. 2.2 million Americans would die from the virus itself. 

It gets worse. People with severe COVID-19 need to be put on ventilators. 50% of those on ventilators still die, but the other 50% live. But in an unmitigated epidemic, the need for ventilators would be 30 times the number available in the US. Nearly 100% of these patients die. 

So the actual death toll from the virus would be closer to 4 million Americans -- in a span of 3 months. 8-15% of all Americans over 70 would die. 

How many is 4 million people? It's more Americans than have died all at once from anything, ever. It's the population of Los Angeles. It's 4 times the number of Americans who died in the Civil War...on both sides combined. It's two-thirds as many people as died in the Holocaust. 

Americans make up 4.4% of the world's population. If we extrapolate these numbers to the rest of the world (warning: MOE is high here), this gives us 90 million deaths globally from COVID-19, in 3-6 months. 15 Holocausts. 1.5 times as many people as died in all of World War II. 

Now, of course countries won't stand by and do nothing. So the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, this time assuming a "mitigation" strategy: all symptomatic cases in the US in isolation. Families of those cases quarantined. All Americans over 70 social distancing. 

This mitigation strategy is what you've seen a lot of people talking about when they say we should "flatten the curve": try to slow the spread of the disease to the people most likely to die from it, to avoid overwhelming hospitals. 

And it does flatten the curve -- but not nearly enough. The death rate from the disease is cut in half, but it still kills 1.1 million Americans all by itself. The peak need for ventilators falls by two-thirds, but it still exceeds the number of ventilators in the US by 8 times. 

That leaves the actual death toll in the US at right around 2 million deaths. The population of Houston. Two Civil Wars. One-third of the Holocaust. Globally, 45 million people die: 7.5 Holocausts, 3/4 of World War II. That's what happens if we rely on mitigation & common sense. 

Finally, the Imperial College team ran the numbers again, assuming a "suppression" strategy: isolate symptomatic cases, quarantine their family members, social distancing for the whole population, all public gatherings/most workplaces shut down, schools and universities close. 

Suppression works! The death rate in the US peaks 3 weeks from now at a few thousand deaths, then goes down. We hit but don't exceed the number of available ventilators. The nightmarish death tolls from the rest of the study disappear. 

But here's the catch: if we EVER relax suppression before a vaccine is administered to the entire population, COVID-19 comes right back and kills millions of Americans in a few months, the same as before. 

After the 1st suppression period ends in July, we could probably lift restrictions for a month, followed by 2 more months of suppression, in a repeating pattern without triggering an outbreak or overwhelming the ventilator supply. Staggering breaks by city could do a bit better. 

But we simply cannot EVER allow the virus to spread throughout the entire population in the way other viruses do, because it is just too deadly. If lots of people we know end up getting COVID-19, it means millions of Americans are dying. It simply can't be allowed to happen. 

How quickly will a vaccine be here? Last week three separate research teams announced they had developed vaccines. Yesterday, one of them (with FDA approval) injected its vaccine into a live person, without waiting for animal testing. That's an extreme measure, but necessary. 

Now, though, they have to monitor the test subject for 14 months to make sure the vaccine is safe. This part can't be rushed: if you're going to inoculate all humans, you have to make absolutely sure the vaccine itself won't kill them. It probably won't, but you have to be sure. 

Assuming the vaccine is safe and effective, it will still take several months to produce enough to inoculate the global population. For this reason, the Imperial College team estimated it will be about 18 months until the vaccine is available. 

During those 18 months, things are going to be very difficult and very scary. Our economy and society will be disrupted in profound ways. And if suppression actually works, it will feel like we're doing all this for nothing, because infection and death rates will remain low. 

It's easy to get people to come together in common sacrifice in the middle of a war. It's very hard to get them to do so in a pandemic that looks invisible precisely because suppression methods are working. But that's exactly what we're going to have to do. /end 

[kloubek]

^ That about sums it up. I feel this is about accurate.

 

The measures being taken may indeed work, but life under lockdown for 1-2 years and the economic fallout it would create seems pretty awful.

[naslund.is.king]

Via the Star

 

By THE CANADIAN PRESS

Wed., March 18, 2020

TORONTO - Canada’s big banks are moving to provide financial breathing room to customers hurt by disruptions from the steps taken to slow the spread of COVID-19

The big six banks say they will allow customers to defer mortgage payments for up to six months among other changes.

Bank towers are shown from Bay Street in Toronto's financial district, on Wednesday, June 16, 2010. Canada's big banks are moving to help customers hurt by the disruptions caused by the steps taken to slow the spread of COVID-19. (ADRIEN VECZAN / THE CANADIAN PRESS)

The banks urged Canadians or business owners facing hardship to contact their bank directly to discuss options that may be available.

The move comes as the large banks work together in their efforts to limit the spread of the novel coronavirus by temporarily limiting branch operating hours and reducing the number of branches, while maintaining critical services.

Public health officials have urged people to limit contact with others in an effort to limit the threat of the novel coronavirus.

 

[stawns]

7 hours ago, Boudrias said:

I don’t have a solution. I said above what I thought would happen. At a minimum we likely see the equivalent of the housing crisis the USA went thru in 2008. Our government is not being ran by the sharpest tools in the shed. At some point Canada’s creditworthiness will be brought into question. It is whether the Americans can survive or not that will make the real difference. They have a better chance than we do.

 

To some extent it is ironic that the energy industry was sacrificed in Canada to placate who knows what. I had hoped that exploiting oil could provide the cash Canada could use to develop a actual economic plan. Always have been price takers. Quite honestly if my fears come true I do not expect Canada will survive as one country. When the federal government cannot meet their promises the finger pointing will tear the country apart. Maybe I have to pessimistic an outlook.

Canada will come out of the other end of this I think, but you're in dream world if you think the world is just going to pick up and carry on with the same systems that we ran before.