Coronavirus outbreak

[samurai]

38 minutes ago, Canorth said:

Maybe you should stop licking door knobs?

 

The point is, nobody knows if licking door knobs will create immunity to this. It’s drawing parallels to what you think you already know, putting you self and others at risk. 

 

“A study on recovered COVID-19 patientsin the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen found that 38 out of 262, or almost 15% of the patients, tested positive after they were discharged. They were confirmed via PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests, currently the gold standard for coronavirus testing. The study has yet to be peer reviewed, but offers some early insight into the potential for re-infection. The 38 patients were mostly young (below the age of 14) and displayed mild symptoms during their period of infection. The patients generally were not symptomatic at the time of their second positive test.” - Link

 

 

 

Jumping to unproven conclusions is hardly being informed. It is exactly what will keep this thing going or fuel subsequent waves. Until scientists give me the thumbs up to start licking door knobs, I’ll leave that weird little task to you. 

Faulty tests (well documented) combined with people not fully recovering in the first place.  

 

 

 

[Jaimito]

Keep up the good job in BC. 

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056

 

Why B.C. is flattening the COVID-19 curve while numbers in central Canada surge

 

Luck and timing is part of the equation — but leadership at the top could also play a role

 

Justin McElroy · CBC News · Posted: Apr 06, 2020 6:05 PM PT | Last Updated: 6 hours ago

 

Confirmed cases of COVID-19 in British Columbia have increased at a slow rate over the past two weeks, but have gone up dramatically in Quebec and Ontario. (Justin McElroy/CBC News)

 

The COVID-19 outbreak is currently more severe in Canada's two largest provinces than it is in British Columbia. 

 

That's not opinion; it's fact.

 

Whether you go by confirmed cases or hospitalizations, by raw numbers or a per capita comparison, the virus has steadily grown in Ontario and Quebec. 

 

But in B.C., hospitalizations and active cases have been flat for the last week. The disease growth curve, at least at this point, has been flattened.

 

So, what's the explanation?

 

"It's very hard to know exactly why," said B.C.'s chief medical health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, when asked about the difference on Monday. "Some parts of it are luck, and some parts of it are being prepared."

 

Luck and early preparation flattening B.C.'s COVID-19 curve, but officials urge residents to 'not let up'

It's undoubtedly true that B.C. was able to learn from having a few isolated cases in January and February. It's also true the province has been lucky not to have a viral "super-spreader," as has been the case in other places. 

 

However, there's a little bit more to it than that. 

 

 

Preparation, preparation, preparation 

Dr. David Fisman, an epidemiology professor at the University of Toronto, said British Columbia's institutions for disease control have long been a model for the rest of the country. 

 

"You've got a functioning public health system, with integration of lab and epidemiology and service in British Columbia," he said. "Here in Ontario, we have had difficulties with public health leadership culture for a long time." 

 

Fisman says B.C. was able to, as Henry put it, "take a lot of measures early" because they had the lines of communication to quickly scale up a unified response relatively early. 

 

COVID-19 in British Columbia by the numbers

It meant there was a unified response and messaging to the public underway before COVID-19 was on the radar for many politicians.

 

Whereas in Ontario, it took a little longer for everyone to get on the same page. 

 

Ontario Premier Doug Ford "has actually stepped up as a leader," said Fisman. "[But] one has to realize Doug Ford's not a public health physician. He's not a microbiologist, and he's not an epidemiologist. So, he's very much dependent on the advice he's given."

 

 

Timing of spring break

One way that played out was over spring break. 

 

On March 12, B.C. recommended against all non-essential travel outside of Canada, while Ford told families to "go away" and "have fun" during the week-long holiday. 

 

"You could see this coming," said Fisman. "There was talk in the epidemiology field that we really can't have a million people return to Ontario from places with unfettered COVID transmission. It's gonna be a very bad thing for us, but we didn't use that opportunity."

 

COVID-19 in Quebec: With caution, Legault says we can 'see light at the end of the tunnel'

At the same time, British Columbia was fortunate that the scheduled spring break for students was later than in other jurisdictions — allowing health officials to adapt. 

 

"We learned from Quebec," said Henry. 

 

"Their March break was two weeks earlier than ours, and people were coming back … from places like France, and coming home from March break and getting sick." 

 

Why is B.C. doing a better job of flattening the curve compared to Ontario and Quebec

 

Dr. Bonnie Henry says luck, preparation and the timing of the province’s later spring break are factors in slowing down the pace of COVID-19 cases. 1:19

Henry's role

Fisman also credited B.C. for putting in an early measure to stop health-care workers from working at multiple care homes, which was a big factor in preventing community transmission.

 

But ultimately he believes a big part of B.C.'s fortune comes from the person who speaks to British Columbians at every news conference.

 

"Bonnie Henry stays at press conferences and answers the questions … and doesn't shade the truth. She's frank and honest and emotional with people," he said.

 

"And given that part of this response depends on being altruistic and doing the right thing to help other people who we will never meet, having a leader who can articulate how we're all in this together and make a convincing case for why you need to do your part … is very important."

 

'So human': B.C. health officer praised for her compassion after tearing up during COVID-19 briefing

Playing 'the hand we're dealt'

Henry's direct experience in overseeing Toronto's SARS and H1N1 outbreaks is the type of background that's impossible to quantify in a situation like this. Henry herself doesn't mention it at news conferences.

 

"Part of [curve-flattening] was the system we had in place to detect cases … and part of it was luck, and part of it was timing," she said.

 

But Fisman believes it has been crucial. 

 

"We all play the hand we're dealt. [British Columbia] has played the hand they've been dealt very, very well. And you can see it in the numbers," he said.

 

"Ontario has played the hand that it's dealt in a way that is not the United States … but I think Ontario is lagging."

 

 

 

 

[Jester13]

8 hours ago, stawns said:

The almost 400k is tested cases I assume.  So of tested cases, the death rate is about 2.5% I believe.

It'll definitely be lower than 2.5% once they accumulate better numbers over the next year or so; numbers that aren't yet collected such as doctor visits, surveys, death certificates, etc. 

 

It's an interesting read on how the CDC estimates the rate for the flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm#Influenza-Associated-Deaths

 

It'll be even more interesting to see eventually what the more accurate estimate is of C-19 in every country that do the numbers. It'll surely be higher than the flu, but what exactly remains to be seen. 

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

.

Edited April 7, 2020 by AlwaysACanuckFan

[Jester13]

Another good read, this one on immunity...

 

COVID-19 Reinfections and the Efficiency of ‘Immunity Passports’

https://flip.it/wTMbk-

[spur1]

3 hours ago, Canorth said:

Maybe you should stop licking door knobs?

 

The point is, nobody knows if licking door knobs will create immunity to this. It’s drawing parallels to what you think you already know, putting you self and others at risk. 

 

“A study on recovered COVID-19 patientsin the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen found that 38 out of 262, or almost 15% of the patients, tested positive after they were discharged. They were confirmed via PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests, currently the gold standard for coronavirus testing. The study has yet to be peer reviewed, but offers some early insight into the potential for re-infection. The 38 patients were mostly young (below the age of 14) and displayed mild symptoms during their period of infection. The patients generally were not symptomatic at the time of their second positive test.” - Link

 

 

 

Jumping to unproven conclusions is hardly being informed. It is exactly what will keep this thing going or fuel subsequent waves. Until scientists give me the thumbs up to start licking door knobs, I’ll leave that weird little task to you. 

I was referring to the common cold only. Why would you make the assumption that I was referring to Covid 19?  Try reading the whole thread. Door knob indeed. 

[RUPERTKBD]

12 hours ago, PhillipBlunt said:

Jinping is truly a deplorable piece of refuse. 

Phil, you're on a first name basis with the Chairman?  I'm impressed.....

 

Hope you're feeling better, BTW. @stawns too.....

 

11 hours ago, bishopshodan said:

Can a person get it more than once? 

 

Is there any definitive word on that? 

It seems to be up in the air. Yesterday I read an article about some patients in China getting sick "again", but it was thought possible that they had just experiences a "lull" in their symptoms and hadn't actually recovered from the initial infection.

[RUPERTKBD]

6 hours ago, The 5th Line said:

 

I'm not going to waste an hour of my life watching this, but I did watch the first couple of minutes and saw pretty much what I thought I'd see.

 

The gist is that the Coronavirus is some kind of hoax designed to wipe out world economies...I didn't get to the "why" part of the conspiracy theory, but I assume is "world domination", "enslavement of the masses", or some such thing...

 

....One thing I'll give Shiva credit for is the shameless self promotion. Several books on the shelf behind him, but two facing outward so we can see the title and author. I'll give you a hint of who the author is.....he likes to mention that he has a PhD.....a lot....

[Canada Hockey Place]

World: "Please don't spread misinformation"

Idiots: "Hold my beer after I cough on it"

 

 

[JM_]

12 hours ago, debluvscanucks said:

 

^ this is such a great story. I've been saying this for years, Canada has many small pockets of manufacturers like this guy still around and we do have the ability to do things quickly. A lot of people like to say manufacturing is 'dead' in Canada (mostly its the IT guys that like to say that) but it isn't. The federal gov't needs to help more of these people and we don't have to be in the position of being at Trump or any other country whim when it comes to basic lifesaving gear. Thanks for finding this. 

 

 

[stawns]

2 hours ago, Jester13 said:

It'll definitely be lower than 2.5% once they accumulate better numbers over the next year or so; numbers that aren't yet collected such as doctor visits, surveys, death certificates, etc. 

 

It's an interesting read on how the CDC estimates the rate for the flu: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm#Influenza-Associated-Deaths

 

It'll be even more interesting to see eventually what the more accurate estimate is of C-19 in every country that do the numbers. It'll surely be higher than the flu, but what exactly remains to be seen. 

Agreed, but going on tested cases vs death

[NewbieCanuckFan]

33 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:

I'm not going to waste an hour of my life watching this, but I did watch the first couple of minutes and saw pretty much what I thought I'd see.

 

The gist is that the Coronavirus is some kind of hoax designed to wipe out world economies...I didn't get to the "why" part of the conspiracy theory, but I assume is "world domination", "enslavement of the masses", or some such thing...

 

....One thing I'll give Shiva credit for is the shameless self promotion. Several books on the shelf behind him, but two facing outward so we can see the title and author. I'll give you a hint of who the author is.....he likes to mention that he has a PhD.....a lot....

He's a more credible version of Frank Dux:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_Dux

 

Course, Steven Seagal is more credible martial artist than Frank Dux.

[JM_]

4 hours ago, Canorth said:

Maybe you should stop licking door knobs?

 

The point is, nobody knows if licking door knobs will create immunity to this. It’s drawing parallels to what you think you already know, putting you self and others at risk. 

 

“A study on recovered COVID-19 patientsin the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen found that 38 out of 262, or almost 15% of the patients, tested positive after they were discharged. They were confirmed via PCR (polymerase chain reaction) tests, currently the gold standard for coronavirus testing. The study has yet to be peer reviewed, but offers some early insight into the potential for re-infection. The 38 patients were mostly young (below the age of 14) and displayed mild symptoms during their period of infection. The patients generally were not symptomatic at the time of their second positive test.” - Link

 

 

 

Jumping to unproven conclusions is hardly being informed. It is exactly what will keep this thing going or fuel subsequent waves. Until scientists give me the thumbs up to start licking door knobs, I’ll leave that weird little task to you. 

I've read some of the follow ups to this study, there's two main theories that I have seen so far, one that the kids had mild cases and didn't develop enough antibodies for full immunity, and two that  they were tested too early and didn't have enough time to develop antibodies (sometimes up to 2 weeks). 

 

So who knows. Just have to wait and see, there's enough reason to think we should develop immunity but just have to wait for the large scale blood tests.

 

[stawns]

40 minutes ago, RUPERTKBD said:

Phil, you're on a first name basis with the Chairman?  I'm impressed.....

 

Hope you're feeling better, BTW. @stawns too.....

 

It seems to be up in the air. Yesterday I read an article about some patients in China getting sick "again", but it was thought possible that they had just experiences a "lull" in their symptoms and hadn't actually recovered from the initial infection.

I'm wondering if that's not what's happening with me.  I'm positive I had it in late January/early Feb and it didn't just go dormant to some degree.

[Boudrias]

3 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

^ this is such a great story. I've been saying this for years, Canada has many small pockets of manufacturers like this guy still around and we do have the ability to do things quickly. A lot of people like to say manufacturing is 'dead' in Canada (mostly its the IT guys that like to say that) but it isn't. The federal gov't needs to help more of these people and we don't have to be in the position of being at Trump or any other country whim when it comes to basic lifesaving gear. Thanks for finding this. 

 

 

It is the responsibility of national governments to identify threats to the country and develop plans to address them. Canada has not done a good enough job over many decades. Capacity to produce emergency equipment, military supplies and where possible pharmaceuticals. I harp on national security but I consider inadequate measures the biggest issue facing Canada.

[Ghostsof1915]

7 minutes ago, Jimmy McGill said:

^ this is such a great story. I've been saying this for years, Canada has many small pockets of manufacturers like this guy still around and we do have the ability to do things quickly. A lot of people like to say manufacturing is 'dead' in Canada (mostly its the IT guys that like to say that) but it isn't. The federal gov't needs to help more of these people and we don't have to be in the position of being at Trump or any other country whim when it comes to basic lifesaving gear. Thanks for finding this. 

 

 

I agree. I think the sad part is the companies that manufacture the machines that make the masks are in China. Maybe we should have strategic resources to allow Canada to manufacture our own machines, so that we can sell them to the world? Yes there may not be a huge market, but there should be a consistent one. Having a country that can be more flexible and prepared for serious emergencies is better yes? 

[RUPERTKBD]

Interesting article from CBC. Some pretty high praise for Dr Bonnie:

 

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/why-is-bc-flattening-the-covid-19-curve-while-numbers-in-central-canada-surge/ar-BB12f4Qq?li=AAggNb9

 

The COVID-19 outbreak is currently more severe in Canada's two largest provinces than it is in British Columbia. 

That's not opinion, it's fact — whether you go by confirmed cases or hospitalizations, by raw numbers or a per capita comparison, the virus has steadily grown in Ontario and Quebec. 

But in B.C., hospitalizations and active cases have been flat for the last week. The curve, at least at this point, has been flattened.

So what's the explanation?

"It's very hard to know exactly why," said B.C.'s chief medical health officer, Dr. Bonnie Henry, when asked about the difference on Monday. "Some parts of it are luck, and some parts of it are being prepared."

t's undoubtedly true that B.C. was able to learn from having a few isolated cases in January and February. It's also true the province has been lucky not to have a viral "super-spreader," as has been the case in other places. 

However, there's a little bit more to it than that. 

Preparation, preparation, preparation 

© Justin McElroy/CBC News Confirmed cases of COVID-19 in British Columbia have increased at a slow rate over the past two weeks, but have gone up exponentially in Quebec and Ontario. Dr. David Fisman, an epidemiology professor at the University of Toronto, said British Columbia's institutions for disease control have long been a model for the rest of the country. 

"You've got a functioning public health system, with integration of lab and epidemiology and service in British Columbia," he said. "Here in Ontario, we have had difficulties with public health leadership culture for a long time." 

Fisman believes B.C. was able to, as Henry put it, "take a lot of measures early" because they had the lines of communication to quickly scale up a unified response relatively early. 

It meant there was a unified response and messaging to the public underway before COVID-19 was on the radar for many politicians.

Whereas in Ontario, it took a little longer for everyone to get on the same page. 

Premier Doug Ford "has actually stepped up as a leader," said Fisman. "[But] one has to realize Doug Ford's not a public health physician, he's not a microbiologist and he's not an epidemiologist. So he's very much dependent on the advice he's given."

Timing of spring break

One way that played out was over spring break. 

On March 12, B.C. recommended against all non-essential travel outside of Canada, while Ford told families to "go away" and "have fun" during the week-long holiday. 

"You could see this coming," said Fisman. "There was talk in the epidemiology field that we really can't have a million people return to Ontario from places with unfettered COVID transmission. It's gonna be a very bad thing for us, but we didn't use that opportunity."

At the same time, British Columbia was fortunate that the scheduled spring break for students was later than in other jurisdictions — allowing health officials to adapt. 

"We learned from Quebec," said Henry. 

"Their March break was two weeks earlier than ours, and people were coming back … from places like France, and coming home from March break and getting sick." 

Henry's role

Fisman also credited B.C. for putting in an early measure to stop health-care workers from working at multiple care homes, which was a big factor in preventing community transmission.

But ultimately he believes a big part of B.C.'s fortune comes from the person who speaks to British Columbians at every news conference.

"Bonnie Henry stays at press conferences and answers the questions … and doesn't shade the truth. She's frank and honest and emotional with people," he said.

"And given that part of this response depends on being altruistic and doing the right thing to help other people who we will never meet, having a leader who can articulate how we're all in this together and make a convincing case for why you need to do your part … is very important."

Playing 'the hand we're dealt'

Henry's direct experience in overseeing Toronto's SARS and H1N1 outbreaks is the type of background that's impossible to quantify in a situation like this. Henry herself doesn't mention it at news conferences.

"Part of [curve-flattening] was the system we had in place to detect cases … and part of it was luck, and part of it was timing," she said.

But Fisman believes it has been crucial. 

"We all play the hand we're dealt. [British Columbia] has played the hand they've been dealt very, very well. And you can see it in the numbers," he said.

"Ontario has played the hand that it's dealt in a way that is not the United States … but I think Ontario is lagging."

 

[stawns]

2 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

I agree. I think the sad part is the companies that manufacture the machines that make the masks are in China. Maybe we should have strategic resources to allow Canada to manufacture our own machines, so that we can sell them to the world? Yes there may not be a huge market, but there should be a consistent one. Having a country that can be more flexible and prepared for serious emergencies is better yes? 

It's a lot more complex than that...........what's the cost going to be of those machines?  Canadians don't work cheap.

[JM_]

3 minutes ago, Boudrias said:

It is the responsibility of national governments to identify threats to the country and develop plans to address them. Canada has not done a good enough job over many decades. Capacity to produce emergency equipment, military supplies and where possible pharmaceuticals. I harp on national security but I consider inadequate measures the biggest issue facing Canada.

for sure it is. Running on a just in time hospital supply system, with inadequate local supply, has left us in this position. I just hope we've learned the lesson this time.

 

I know we're both worried about the national debt, but at least investments in manufacturing companies actually have the chance to pay the money back and more. 

[JM_]

5 minutes ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

I agree. I think the sad part is the companies that manufacture the machines that make the masks are in China. Maybe we should have strategic resources to allow Canada to manufacture our own machines, so that we can sell them to the world? Yes there may not be a huge market, but there should be a consistent one. Having a country that can be more flexible and prepared for serious emergencies is better yes? 

we have that too. The list of who we have is here: https://cme-mec.ca 

 

What we don't have is the support that other counties give their manufacturers. Japan and Germany are who we need to follow in this area.