Popular Post AK_19 Posted February 27, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 27, 2021 (edited) I don't think the reason we are losing is due to the on-ice performance of the FA's we signed to our bottom 6 (Beagle, Sutter, Roussel) and to a lesser extent, even Louie. I believe the largest issues with our team is 5 on 5 performance and our PP. Our PK has been better than league average (currently sitting at 12th) after its atrocious start which is mostly manned by our overpaid bottom six guys. The PP is the responsibility of our top 6 which is at an atrocious 23rd place. The worst +/- on our team is by a long shot the players on our top 6. Our worst +/- forwards are: Horvat -9 Gaudette -6 Miller -6 Pearson -6 Hoglander -4 Boeser -4 Virtanen -3 Our best +/- players are: Antoine Roussel +3 Olli Joulevi +3 Benn +2 Macewan +1 It's also worth noting on defense that Hughes is by a long shot the worst with a -14. My takeaway from these numbers while also watching every game is that: 1. Our worst line 5 on 5 is actually Horvat's line. They have done an atrocious job of containing other team's top lines. The best player defensively on that line is Hoglander. There needs to be more of a shake-up on this line or a serious re-evaluation on whether we want to move long-term with Horvat/Pearson. Horvat is simply not this defensive stalwart he is advertised as. 2. The worst parts of our bottom 6 is Gaudette. The guy only averages 10 minutes a game, only produced 2 points, and he is second worst for +/-. He is simply not playing at an NHL level. 3. Macewan should be playing in over Gaudette and he should have a permanent role on our team. 4. Sutter, Beagle, and Eriksson all hover around 0 to -2. For a team that is as a whole a -17, that's not bad. They may not score but they aren't getting scored on either. EDIT: As another poster pointed out, Sutter is actualy 2nd/3rd on the team for even strength points. 5. Tanev was not a player this team was equipped to lose. It's clear now Tanev masked a lot of problems in Hughes game. Of the players who left in free agency, I believe this one had the biggest impact. Demko has been at worst a small downgrade from Markstrom and the same for Hoglander for Toffoli. But more importantly we had internal replacements who needed more ice time to develop, we had nothing to replace Tanev. Tanev was absolutely affordable if we had just not signed Virtanen and signed a cheaper back-up than Holtby. It would also relieve the need to get Hamonic. Look, end of the day if our top players aren't performing against other teams top players, there is an issue at our core. It is possible that the issue with our forwards is the weak D pairing with Hughes as well. Edited February 27, 2021 by AK_19 8 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rychicken Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 you have not addressed the fact that our bottom 6 does not score enough, or provide enough of a threat, that the opponent would worry about them. Teams are putting all their focus on our top 2 lines because they know we have no other threat 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 I agree that the (maligned) "foundation" guys - have performed quite well this year (and in general in the past). Beagle, Sutter, Motte, Virtanen, Roussel, Mac - the guys that have handled the bulk of the hard minutes among forwards - have had very good possession and goal metrics - and have done their job of creating territory / ozone starts for the young top 6. If anyone needs the outcomes reposted, they tell exactly the same story as the less indicative plus/minus story (ie high dzone starts, and good relative possession and goal metrics for the bottom six, and the reverse for the top 6). The young talent may have struggled to produce - their possession and goal metrics are those of young players - somewhat to be expected - but perhaps even moreso in this crazy season where they did not have much camp/preseason - and then faced an insanely compacted schedule right out of the gate. I'm not really concerned about them - they are highly talented, intelligent players that will get through it and hopefully take the gains/growing pains as fuel to get better. Kudos to the OP for pointing out the 'underlying' truth thus far. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post oldnews Posted February 27, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 27, 2021 5 minutes ago, rychicken said: you have not addressed the fact that our bottom 6 does not score enough, or provide enough of a threat, that the opponent would worry about them. Teams are putting all their focus on our top 2 lines because they know we have no other threat Motte 22.9% ozone starts,, 48.1% corsi 5 goals, 6 pts, 15 games. Sutter 38.1% ozone starts 49.6% corsi 6 goals, 24 games. Motte and Sutter are 2nd and 3rd on the team in even strength goal scoring (Sutter with a shortie as well). Beagle. 25% ozone starts 45.5% corsi 5 pts. The lowest on ice goals against this season..... All 'bottom 6' with one exception. Virtanen, Roussel, MacEwen, Hoglander, Beagle, Motte, Sutter.... People here want the bottom six to eat shutdown minutes at a high proportion - and they want disproportionate secondary scoring at the same time. What you are getting is already disproportionately low goals against in those shutdown minutes - with respectable production, in context. And where 'possession' is concerned, it'e better than the production. Even the 'eye test' should have given most people here the awareness of how much relative time te Beagle or Sutter lines spend outside their zone, on the forecheck, or cycle in the ozone - and even if not producing scoring in the end - producing ozone starts, for example....EP does not enjoy 76.1% ozone starts if the bottom six is not doing their job. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slegr Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 I was noticing Horvat's +/- the other day. He's never been a plus player. I know it only tells one story, but for a guy who supposedly plays a 200 foot game, that's a bit of a concern. Then you look at a guy like Chris Tanev, who played on some pretty horrible Canucks teams through the years, and even on a bad Calgary team this year, in his 11 NHL seasons, he's had one minus year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AK_19 Posted February 27, 2021 Author Share Posted February 27, 2021 32 minutes ago, rychicken said: you have not addressed the fact that our bottom 6 does not score enough, or provide enough of a threat, that the opponent would worry about them. Teams are putting all their focus on our top 2 lines because they know we have no other threat From watching the games, its clear our bottom two lines are being used in a defensive manner. The majority of their starting faceoffs are in the defensive zone. Furthermore, we don't give our bottom 6 forwards any time on the PP. Almost the entirety of our PP is with our first unit. I actually like the style of our 2nd unit more which is just shoot the puck on net and create havoc. That second unit is where guys like Gaudette and Virtanen thrived. A restart button needs to be pushed with how we run our PP than wishing and hoping to recreate the PP1 with last year. Despite the good stats, many of us noticed there were issues with that unit back then as well. As mentioned from an earlier poster here, the defensive roles our bottom 6 take give our top 6 more ice time in the offensive zone which they subsequently aren't taking any advantage of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 11 minutes ago, Slegr said: I was noticing Horvat's +/- the other day. He's never been a plus player. I know it only tells one story, but for a guy who supposedly plays a 200 foot game, that's a bit of a concern. Then you look at a guy like Chris Tanev, who played on some pretty horrible Canucks teams through the years, and even on a bad Calgary team this year, in his 11 NHL seasons, he's had one minus year. Horvat is at 40.5% ozone starts - 51% corsi....plays his share of shutdown minutes/ dual duty. The goal metrics on the other hand, have not been good. On ice sv% has been 88.5%. On ice shooting% only 6.3% PDO is a poor 94.9%. Part of that (perhaps a large part) can be expected to return to mean - however I think part of it is also a matter of 'applying' himself. The eye test has been more disappointing - at least 5 on 5 - than the possession numbers. For me, the 2nd line hasn't been able to develop chemistry - in spite of Hoglander's outstanding puck hounding. I would think that the Hoglander effect would be more time, space, possession and scoring chances for Horvat and Pearson, but for whatever reasons it isn't translating, at least not yet (so I understand Green experimenting with different top 6 lines). Horvat hasn't looked like the player he's capable of being - seems to share the general lack of confidence - and determination - in general. I wish he'd play with a bit more abandon and 'rational anger' though. For me part of this might also be the demand, the weight, the distraction of being captain (at a young age) - and furthermore, in a very toxic media market. I don't envy him having to respond to the gaggle of province dimwits and smarm he has to deal with everyday. He's probably too polite - perhaps the odd gfy would serve him well - and take some onus off him to respond politely to idiocy day after day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefCon1 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 54 minutes ago, AK_19 said: I don't think the reason we are losing is due to the on-ice performance of the FA's we signed to our bottom 6 (Beagle, Sutter, Roussel) and to a lesser extent, even Louie. I believe the largest issues with our team is 5 on 5 performance and our PP. Our PK has been better than league average (currently sitting at 12th) after its atrocious start which is mostly manned by our overpaid bottom six guys. The PP is the responsibility of our top 6 which is at an atrocious 23rd place. The worst +/- on our team is by a long shot the players on our top 6. Our worst +/- forwards are: Horvat -9 Gaudette -6 Miller -6 Pearson -6 Hoglander -4 Boeser -4 Virtanen -3 Our best +/- players are: Antoine Roussel +3 Olli Joulevi +3 Benn +2 Macewan +1 It's also worth noting on defense that Hughes is by a long shot the worst with a -14. My takeaway from these numbers while also watching every game is that: 1. Our worst line 5 on 5 is actually Horvat's line. They have done an atrocious job of containing other team's top lines. The best player defensively on that line is Hoglander. There needs to be more of a shake-up on this line or a serious re-evaluation on whether we want to move long-term with Horvat/Pearson. Horvat is simply not this defensive stalwart he is advertised as. 2. The worst parts of our bottom 6 is Gaudette. The guy only averages 10 minutes a game, only produced 2 points, and he is second worst for +/-. He is simply not playing at an NHL level. 3. Macewan should be playing in over Gaudette and he should have a permanent role on our team. 4. Sutter, Beagle, and Eriksson all hover around 0 to -2. For a team that is as a whole a -17, that's not bad. They may not score but they aren't getting scored on either. 5. Tanev was not a player this team was equipped to lose. It's clear now Tanev masked a lot of problems in Hughes game. Of the players who left in free agency, I believe this one had the biggest impact. Demko has been at worst a small downgrade from Markstrom and the same for Hoglander for Toffoli. But more importantly we had internal replacements who needed more ice time to develop, we had nothing to replace Tanev. Tanev was absolutely affordable if we had just not signed Virtanen and signed a cheaper back-up than Holtby. It would also relieve the need to get Hamonic. Look, end of the day if our top players aren't performing against other teams top players, there is an issue at our core. It is possible that the issue with our forwards is the weak D pairing with Hughes as well. The problem is our bottom 6 is just a PK unit really. Does not forecheck hard enough, does not score and most times they are hemmed in the defensive zone which creates pnalties and scoring chances for other teams. We need a 3rd line that can score and play a 2 way game. I wish we didnt trade madden and our 2nd for Toffoli if Benning would let him walk for nothing. Our 3rd line would have Madden, Podkolzin and someone like Lind on it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duodenum Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Horvat has-been bad defensively outside of maybe 2 seasons of his career. He'll never be a shutdown type. Bottom six is severely overpaid but they aren't losing us games. Our top six and defense have been extremely porous defensively. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DefCon1 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 2 minutes ago, Duodenum said: Horvat has-been bad defensively outside of maybe 2 seasons of his career. He'll never be a shutdown type. Bottom six is severely overpaid but they aren't losing us games. Our top six and defense have been extremely porous defensively. our Bottom 6 is losing us games because we dont trust them enough to play them more and roll 4 lines. They lack offense and we dont have the offense to win some of the games. We rely heavily on the 1st line, 2nd line has been inconsistent and our 3rd and 4th line dont contribute to offense much. Aside from Motte, we dont have any forwards with much of a scoring threat and that is motte being average offensively. Beagle and Roussel are basically zero on offense. Virtanen and Gaudette cant score at all, especially Gaudette. Then we have Sutter who can sometimes score but not consistently and is very slow in passing and skating. We had scoring problem in playoffs against Vegas because we didnt have much depth. Again that is a bottom 6 problem when you cant roll 4 lines and tire out the top 2 lines. We cant win a cup if we cant roll 4 lines, that is a fact. See Tampa Bay's roster for reference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Davathor Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 .. having a vastly overpaid 4th line handcuffs the team into not having options to upgrade. Sure, the team has lots of issues right now... cap space is one of them. So yes, part of the blame is on our 20 million dollar bottom 6, OP. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
knucklehead91 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Can you imagine Dorsett, Motte and Ferland all in the lineup.... They are what the team lacks. Its unfortunate Double D’s had to retire and Ferlands future is in question. Hopefully Motte is back soon 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 this thread is doing a good job of showing how valuable Sutter would be for Edmonton e.g. and the impact he'd have on their actually mediocre bottom 6. I think his value could be pegged at a 2nd round pick, in part due to him not having to wait 2 weeks to play this year. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patel Bure Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 9 minutes ago, Davathor said: .. having a vastly overpaid 4th line handcuffs the team into not having options to upgrade. Sure, the team has lots of issues right now... cap space is one of them. So yes, part of the blame is on our 20 million dollar bottom 6, OP. None of which will be issues in October 2022 when our real window starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patel Bure Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 14 minutes ago, DefCon1 said: our Bottom 6 is losing us games because we dont trust them enough to play them more and roll 4 lines. They lack offense and we dont have the offense to win some of the games. We rely heavily on the 1st line, 2nd line has been inconsistent and our 3rd and 4th line dont contribute to offense much. Aside from Motte, we dont have any forwards with much of a scoring threat and that is motte being average offensively. Beagle and Roussel are basically zero on offense. Virtanen and Gaudette cant score at all, especially Gaudette. Then we have Sutter who can sometimes score but not consistently and is very slow in passing and skating. We had scoring problem in playoffs against Vegas because we didnt have much depth. Again that is a bottom 6 problem when you cant roll 4 lines and tire out the top 2 lines. We cant win a cup if we cant roll 4 lines, that is a fact. See Tampa Bay's roster for reference. I think Gaudette will be able to produce as a center on the 4th line in protected minutes. He was doing so last season. Virtanen, with a new coach, and in a post Covid world where he can be happier and live a more social life outside the rink, has a good chance of going back to his 20 goal pace from last season in my opinion. What Virtanen really needs is a good two way 3rd line center that can help him out. #SamBennett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duodenum Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 10 minutes ago, DefCon1 said: our Bottom 6 is losing us games because we dont trust them enough to play them more and roll 4 lines. They lack offense and we dont have the offense to win some of the games. We rely heavily on the 1st line, 2nd line has been inconsistent and our 3rd and 4th line dont contribute to offense much. Aside from Motte, we dont have any forwards with much of a scoring threat and that is motte being average offensively. Beagle and Roussel are basically zero on offense. Virtanen and Gaudette cant score at all, especially Gaudette. Then we have Sutter who can sometimes score but not consistently and is very slow in passing and skating. We had scoring problem in playoffs against Vegas because we didnt have much depth. Again that is a bottom 6 problem when you cant roll 4 lines and tire out the top 2 lines. We cant win a cup if we cant roll 4 lines, that is a fact. See Tampa Bay's roster for reference. The 4th line contracts will be gone in a year or two. Petersson, Horvat, Boeser and co. will be here for years. If they are going to be getting 4+ PP minutes per game and play 14+ minutes of ES TOI per game they need to be using this time to improve upon their ES play and not have a static bottom 3rd in the league powerplay or give up some of those minutes to the 2nd unit. They play less minutes than a lot of other star forwards. Virtanen and Gaudette are disappointing and will need to be moved on from. Cup teams are dominating 5-on-5. The Lotto line did that last year but have disappeared this year. Horvat has only shown to be effective at even strength in spurts. Our bottom six isn't the best but our top six is losing far far more games for the Canucks than the bottom six. That's ok though, Petey and Boeser are young and should get better as they age. Horvat is what he is and showed up big in the playoffs. Miller has been an enigma. Anyways I'm just rambling. Key points: -Fire Benning -Top six needs to be better defensively and on the powerplay -our defense is also bad -bottom six are overpaid but they aren't the ones bleeding goals against and aren't the ones running the bad powerplay 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bree2 Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 55 minutes ago, Slegr said: I was noticing Horvat's +/- the other day. He's never been a plus player. I know it only tells one story, but for a guy who supposedly plays a 200 foot game, that's a bit of a concern. Then you look at a guy like Chris Tanev, who played on some pretty horrible Canucks teams through the years, and even on a bad Calgary team this year, in his 11 NHL seasons, he's had one minus year. ya but Tanev hardly ever finishes a season 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patel Bure Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 29 minutes ago, Duodenum said: Horvat has-been bad defensively outside of maybe 2 seasons of his career. He'll never be a shutdown type. Bottom six is severely overpaid but they aren't losing us games. Our top six and defense have been extremely porous defensively. Horvat is miscast as a two way forward. He never has and never will be a Linden/Kesler type. Horvat’s more natural style of game is that of a power forward. A Jeff Carter/Jason Arnott type. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post oldnews Posted February 27, 2021 Popular Post Share Posted February 27, 2021 (edited) On 2/27/2021 at 12:11 PM, DefCon1 said: our Bottom 6 is losing us games because we dont trust them enough to play them more and roll 4 lines. They lack offense and we dont have the offense to win some of the games. We rely heavily on the 1st line, 2nd line has been inconsistent and our 3rd and 4th line dont contribute to offense much. Aside from Motte, we dont have any forwards with much of a scoring threat and that is motte being average offensively. Beagle and Roussel are basically zero on offense. Virtanen and Gaudette cant score at all, especially Gaudette. Then we have Sutter who can sometimes score but not consistently and is very slow in passing and skating. We had scoring problem in playoffs against Vegas because we didnt have much depth. Again that is a bottom 6 problem when you cant roll 4 lines and tire out the top 2 lines. We cant win a cup if we cant roll 4 lines, that is a fact. See Tampa Bay's roster for reference. The idea that the bottom six gets 'hemmed' in more than the top 6 is misleading - it fails to adjust for deployment. When your bottom six is getting 20 or 25 or 30% ozone starts and their corsi is 5% lower than the top line (or Hughes) - who are getting 70% ozone starts - the idea that the bottom six gives up too many shots, or doesn't produce enough - requires more context. If you want a secondary scoring oriented top 6 - then you have to give back - ie then you take opportunity away from EP's line. Veteran teams - with veteran top 6 - don't necessarily need to tilt the ice the top of their lineup (for youth - because their top 6 are mostly veterans). Vegas, for example can afford to give 3rd or 4th lines 50%+ ozone starts - because their veteran top 6 can and does handle harder minutes. Toronto has two lottery centers, one who is 30 years old (and who nevertheless often winds up playing a rented mule role down the stretch/in the playoffs). As veteran as the Leafs are (almost all their secondary scoring from veterans) - imo they could still use a more dedicated shutdown unit (so guys like Marner aren't killing too many penalties, taking the risk of eating shots and getting injured). There may be a time in a few years when less 'foundation' is necessary. Or the team may continue to build itself as it has for a long time - ie the Sedins in their prime continued to play on tilted ice - because they were for the most part 'specialists' in that sense - while the Manny Malhotras provided the 'foundation'. The Tortorella experiment, ie making pk of the Sedins, was so poorly conceived it's hard to imagine it came from an NHL coach. Whether this team's top 6 develops/evolves into one that can win the possession game - on even ice - is yet to be seen. Perhaps at that point they'll have the option to do what teams like Vegas or Toronto do - which is to built a secondary scoring bottom six. In any event, I think the need for 'foundation' is to be expected at this stage, and I'd prefer to see guys like EP and Hughes perform in circumstances that are the best for them to be successful - while the veterans can handle disproportionately large amounts of hard minutes (and take the risks involved in high dzone starts and penalty killing minutes). Not all teams are built the same - there is not necessarily a 'correct' way to go about it (varying approaches are succesful at different times) - but imo the young players aren't necessarily ready to go without 'foundation'. There are plenty of examples of foundation-free rethings that wallow in mediocrity for long, long periods of time in spite of lottery championships and top end talent at the top of their roster. I'd prefer the more metered approach myself - but even those teams can eventually improve their two way game (as Tippett is finally doing with the Coil, and as Malhotra can bring to the Leafs - who shouldn't necessarily need an assistant coach to come in and improve their two way game when 14 of their top 17 scorers are 26 years old and older). You can win with a top heavy, forward heavy build - ie the Pens did it with a somewhat unique Mike Sullivan approach that compensated for a not particularly intimidating blueline. However, I think the tendency of playoff success leans more towards the more solid defensive, harder to play against teams. I think the Gillis era - and subsequently, Benning era Canucks were on to something when they developed very dedicated, high end shutdown units. I think in due course they'll be able to 'transition' the 3rd line to a more scoring oriented line while still having solid conditions for the 1st and 2nd lines - but presently, with double digits of youth in the lineup = I'm not sure they're quite ready for that. Edited March 2, 2021 by oldnews 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick Blight Posted February 27, 2021 Share Posted February 27, 2021 Here is a list of the bottom 6 that Edmonton played last two games along with their cap hits. 1. Haas......................$915,000 2. P. Russell...............$700,000 3. Archibald................$1,500,000 4. Chiasson................$2,150,000 5. Khaira.....................$1,200,000 6. Ennis......................$1,000,000 TOTAL Cap Hit...............$7,465,000 Eriksson to sit in press box = $6,000,000. Sutter and Beagle = $7,375,000 Roussel and Virtanen = $5,550,000 Our bottom 6 needs to be dominant with this kind of disparity in salaries. If not, we need to reduce the bottom 6 salary structure significantly to re-allocate dollars to other areas of need. IE: top 6 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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