Myers The 6million dollar man 2.0

[knucklehead91]

Alright so there has been an ongoing argument that Myers contract sucks, Myers sucks, yada yada yada and I am sick and tired of it..... First off his Contract is moveable IF he was not living up to expectations.

@Silky mitts name dropped a bunch of players who are in and around the same paygrade as Myers and sarcastically insinuates they are head and heels better. @kanucks25 doesnt care to read much and believes this post will be about some good players and other players who are absolutely tragic and over paid. That is not the case. So lets introduce our lineup of players who are in and around the 6mil cap hit, as well as players who are above that cap range and ARE HAVING GOOD A YEAR ON A GOOD TEAM.

 

Zach Werenski, Ryan Ellis, Mark Giordano, Ivan Provorov, Justin Faulk, Josh Morrissey, Dougie Hamilton, Seth Jones, Jaccob Slavin, Shea Theodore, Keith Yandle, Aaron Ekblad, Viktor Hedman, Jeff Petry, Shea Weber and Drew Doughty. I'm leaving out the obviously terrible contracts like Subban, Seabrook, Karlsson. In bold are the players that were name dropped by @Silky mitts  not in bold are players I have added.

 

So there is a lot to account for when you look at stats. What team they play on, who they are paired with, what division etc.

 

Lets start with Myers stats to look at that give you an idea of how effective he is on the ice.

 

Myers                    6,000,000                              Vancouver 17th 16-18-3 100GF 120GA -20 

GP 37  TOI 21:57   PP 0:44  PK 3:17  G 4  A 10  PTS 14  +/- -5  dZs 55.1  oZs 44.9  CF 45.6  OiGF 27  OiGA 31  oiSV 91.8

 

Werenski                  5,000,000                            Columbus 20th 13-13-18 89GF 110GA -21

GP 27  TOI 24:37  PP 2:26  PK 1:44   G 4  A 10   PTS 14  +/- -6  dZs 41.1   oZs 58.9  CF 49.8  OiGF 20  OiGA 26  oiSV 90.4

 

Seth Jones               5,400,000                          Columbus 20th 13-13-18 89GF 110GA -21

GP 34  TOI 25:21  PP 2:14  PK 1:41   G 4  A 15  PTS 19  +/- -8   dZs 44.4  oZs 55.6   CF 47.1  OiGF 28   OiGA 34  oiSV 91.3

 

Ryan Ellis                  6,250,000                         Nashville  23rd  16-17-1 86GF 104GA -18

GP 21  TOI 24:39  PP 2:38  PK 2:47   G 2  A 7    PTS 9  +/- -7    dZs 35.8    oZs 64.2  CF 55.8  OiGF 11  OiGA 18  oiSV 89.6

 

Mark Giordano          6,750,000                        Calgary  22nd   15-16-3 GF 89  GA102 -13

GP 34  TOI 21:56  PP 2:07 PK 3:17   G 5  A 10  PTS 15  +/- -8  dZs 44.5    oZs 55.5  CF 51.2  OiGF 23  OiGA 30   oiSV 89.0

 

Ivan Provorov            6,750,000                       Philadelphia 19th  15-13-4 GF 100 GA 119 -19

GP 32  TOI 25:05  PP 2:49  PK 3:02   G 4  A 11  PTS 15  +/- +2  dZs 53.8  oZs 46.2   CF 48.7  OiGF 33  OiGA 30  oiSV 90.0

 

Justin Faulk              6,500,000                            Carolina      3rd    22-7-3  GF 108 GA 81 +27

GP 33 TOI 24:34   PP 0:55  PK 3:04   G 5 A 8   PTS 13   +/-  +8  dZs 51.2  oZs 48.8    CF 51.4  OiGF 37 OiGA 30  oiSV 89.8

 

Dougie Hamilton       5,750,000                             Carolina      3rd    22-7-3  GF 108 Ga 81 +27

GP 32  TOI 22:37   PP 3:09  PK 1:35  G 3  A 23  PTS 26  +/- +9  dZs 50.7  oZs 49.3     CF 53.3  OiGF 32   OiGA 24  oiSV 91.4

 

Jaccob Slavin           5,300,000                               Carolina      3rd    22-7-3  GF 108 GA 81 +27

GP 29  TOI 23:04  PP 0:10  PK 2:45  G 1  A 9  PTS 10  +/- + 6  dZs 51.0  oZs 49.0     CF 51.9   OiGF 32   OiGA 27  oiSV 90.5

 

Shea Theodore     5,200,000                                  Las Vegas   5th   22-8-1 GF101 GA 72  +29

GP 28  TOI 22:48  PP 3:03  PK 0:16  G 5  A 19  PTS 24  +/- +10  dZs 42.1  oZS 57.9  CF 54.0  OiGF 37   OiGA 26  OiSV 89.8

 

Josh Morrissey          6,250,000                                 Winnipeg  11th  20-11-2 GF109 GA 92 +17

GP 33  TOI 23:53  PP 2:57  PK 1:01  G 1  A 15  PTS 16  +/- -2    dZs 47.5  oZs 52.5  CF 44.2  OiGF 30   OiGA 30   OiSV 91.7

 

Shea Weber          7,857,143                                       Montreal 14th 14-8-9 GF100 GA 87 +13

GP 31  TOI 22:59  PP 2:20  PK 2:59  G 5  A 9    PTS 14  +/- +1  dZs 51.1  oZs 48.9  CF 54.2  OiGF 22   OiGA 22  OiSV 91.2 

 

Jeff Petry   5,500,000 this season, 6,250,000 onward    Montreal 14th 14-8-9 GF100 GA 87 +13

GP 31  TOI 22:36  PP 2:09  PK 2:17  G 11  A 16  PTS 27  +/- +14 dZs 47.9  oZs 52.1  CF 57.3  OiGF 31  OiGA 24  OiSV 89.2

 

Victor Hedman            7,875,000                                Tampa Bay 1st  24-7-2  GF120  GA 78 +42

GP 33   TOI 25:31  PP 3:30  PK 2:35  G 6  A 27  PTS 33  +/-  +15  dZs 38.8   oZs 61.2  CF 52.2  OiGF 36  OiGA 24  OiSV 91.6

 

Aaron Ekblad           7,500,000                                    Florida    8th   20-9-4  GF107  GA 94 +13

GP 33   TOI 25:27  PP 3:56  PK 2:35  G 10  A 10  PTS 20  +/- +2  dZs 48.5  oZs 51.5  CF 54.2  OiGF 29  OiGA 25  OiSV 90.3 

 

Keith Yandle            6,350,000                                    Florida    8th   20-9-4  GF107  GA 94 +13

GP 33   TOI 18:18  PP 4:14  PK 0:03  G 3  A 16  PTS 19   +/- -6    dZs 28.3   oZs 71.7  CF 55.8  OiGF 20  OiGA 22  OiSV 89.4

 

Drew Doughty         11,000,000                                Los Angeles  24th 13-13-6  GF91  GA90 +1

GP 32  TOI 26:36   PP 3:35  PK 2:05  G 7  A 20  PTS 27  +/- +1  dZs 48.6  oZs 51.4    CF 50.3  OiGF 26  OiGA 25  OiSV 91.1 

- Myers is 2nd last for CF, but when you have a majority of dzone starts, you corsi is going to be relatively lower. Keith F***ing Yandle has a 71.7 ozS and his oiSV is .894.. thats brutal. even with his 55.8 corsi.

-Tyler Myers is tied for 1st in the league for D with 2 shorthanded points

-He is in a 4-way-tie for 1st in the league  being 1 of 4 dmen with a short handed goal (Dougie Hamilton also has 1)

-Of these 17 players listed 8 of them play on top 10 teams in the league, 4 of which play on top 5 teams in the league.

-Tyler Myers and Mark Giordano play the most PK time of anyone on this list with 3:17 time short handed

- Tyler Myers is 2nd last on this list for PP time

-Tyler Myers on ice save % is the highest on this list. Vancouver has the 18th worst team SSV% WPG, VGK, TBL, CAR all have higher team SSV% yet none of those players have a higher oiSV% as Myers. OiSV% is an indication that when player X is on the ice is able to make a save. The goalie is more likely to stop a puck when they see the puck, rebounds are cleared or moved away safely, shooting lanes are taken away and opposing players have to shoot from difficult angles or shoot without traffic... and a goalie that sees a shot.... is more than likely going to save it. If they don't, that is not on the Dman, thats the goalies fault. Myers doing his job, makes Demko and Holtby's job much, much easier.

- Tyler Myers is in a 3-way tie for 3rd last in points, however he has technically 9 ESP which puts him at 10th on this list.... BUT that ESP does NOT include his 2 shorthanded points, which if they added that because it is a handicap, he would be tied with Doughty at  6th in ESP. 

9 OF THESE PLAYERS ON THE LIST GET HALF OR MORE OF THEIR POINTS ON THE POWER PLAY.  At even strength Tyler Myers is providing as much or more offence. MYERS DOESNT EVEN GET PP TIME

- He has the most games played and is hovering around the same OiGA as everyone else on this list. With more games played, these players on listed above, will have as many or potentially more OiGA

- TYLER MYERS HAS THE HIGHEST DZONE START ON THE LIST AND THE HIGHEST ON ICE SAVE % 

- 11 OF THESE PLAYERS ARE PAID ABOVE MYERS 

FOR 6MIL I WOULD SAY HE'S IN DAMN GOOD SHAPE

 

I am not saying Tyler Myers is an elite Dman, but he is certainly playing up to $6,000,000 standards that this list shows... Hell he's even better than $9,000,000 and $11,000,000 players *cough* Karlsson *cough* Subban

 

 

 

 

@Silky mitts all you gave me for an answer was allowed zone entries, which are flawed as hell. Was it a turnover the caused the zone entry, a line change, broken stick? puck took an odd bounce, odd man rushes, etc etc. Just because Myers has allowed zone entries, doesnt mean he is dog sh*t. He is helping the goalie see the puck and make a save. Turnovers lead to odd man rushes the other way.

 

[kanucks25]

@knucklehead91

 

Can you address why you're using on ice save% as a "positive" for Myers when he has terrible possession and scoring chance stats?

 

Like I said, all that really shows is that he's lucky the goaltending has been good behind him otherwise his bad numbers would look even worse.

 

And ice-time as an argument? Bad players get ice-time all over the league, every team, every year. It doesn't make a bad player good, the same way Gudbranson and Sbisa got lots of 5-on-5 and PK ice-time here but were still utter crap.

[24K PureCool]

Myers is definitely over paid by like $1.5million.

Not gonna be an issue after next year (assuming JB stop spending on the bottom 6).

[NewbieCanuckFan]

I personally thought the six million dollar man show was the coolest as a kid...

 

 

[JM_]

@knucklehead91 oh man you got me going with the title, I had my gorilla poop throwing gif ready to go.

 

very good comparison work, thanks for doing it, it really needed doing. 

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by Jimmy McGill

[JM_]

12 minutes ago, 24K PureCool said:

Myers is definitely over paid by like $1.5million.

Not gonna be an issue after next year (assuming JB stop spending on the bottom 6).

all things considered, thats not bad for UFA payments. 

[knucklehead91]

5 minutes ago, kanucks25 said:

@knucklehead91

 

Can you address why you're using on ice save% as a "positive" for Myers when he has terrible possession and scoring chance stats?

 

Like I said, all that really shows is that he's lucky the goaltending has been good behind him otherwise his bad numbers would look even worse.

 

And ice-time as an argument? Bad players get ice-time all over the league, every team, every year. It doesn't make a bad player good, the same way Gudbranson and Sbisa got lots of 5-on-5 and PK ice-time here but were still utter crap.

Do you understand how on ice save % works?

So how is it that a guy with less ozone time than all the mentioned above, has a higher oiSV% 

its not just goaltending. If that was the case, Victor Hedman should have 100% oiSV% he is on a team that is +42. They have allowed 78 goals all season.. yet he has been on the ice for 1/3 of them. They have one of the top goalies on the planet and he has a lower oiSV% its not just goaltending its defence and Hedman is not helping his goalie enough. They have one of the highest team save% in the league, yet Hedman is below a player who is on a crippled and struggling severely. The point is, when Myers is on the ice, the goalie is able to make saves because he can SEE the puck because myers clears bodies. He takes away time and space, forcing shots from bad angles, making the goalies job easier, moves the puck out of danger to prevent rebound goals, for $6,000,000 he is a far cry from an issue or a large overpayment. AND hes keeping pace for points with all these other guys who are on stacked teams and play sheltered ice time away from their own zone because they are f***ing liabilities. Look at Yandle and some of the other players deployment its 55-71% ozone. Myers is starting in his own zone AND keeping up with points

[kanucks25]

10 minutes ago, knucklehead91 said:

Do you understand how on ice save % works?

So how is it that a guy with less ozone time than all the mentioned above, has a higher oiSV% 

its not just goaltending. If that was the case, Victor Hedman should have 100% oiSV% he is on a team that is +42. They have allowed 78 goals all season.. yet he has been on the ice for 1/3 of them. They have one of the top goalies on the planet and he has a lower oiSV% its not just goaltending its defence and Hedman is not helping his goalie enough. They have one of the highest team save% in the league, yet Hedman is below a player who is on a crippled and struggling severely. The point is, when Myers is on the ice, the goalie is able to make saves because he can SEE the puck because myers clears bodies. He takes away time and space, forcing shots from bad angles, making the goalies job easier, moves the puck out of danger to prevent rebound goals, for $6,000,000 he is a far cry from an issue or a large overpayment. AND hes keeping pace for points with all these other guys who are on stacked teams and play sheltered ice time away from their own zone because they are f***ing liabilities. Look at Yandle and some of the other players deployment its 55-71% ozone. Myers is starting in his own zone AND keeping up with points

None of this makes any sense.

 

How does he make the goalies job easier when it's a fact that he's our worst D-man when it comes to scoring chances and expected goals against?

 

He's doing exactly the opposite of what you're saying... the goalie's job is harder when he's on the ice because the other team is constantly getting good shots and chances. He's just lucky our goalies have been making difficult saves when he's on the ice.

[Viper007]

14 minutes ago, kanucks25 said:

None of this makes any sense.

 

How does he make the goalies job easier when it's a fact that he's our worst D-man when it comes to scoring chances and expected goals against?

 

He's doing exactly the opposite of what you're saying... the goalie's job is harder when he's on the ice because the other team is constantly getting good shots and chances. He's just lucky our goalies have been making difficult saves when he's on the ice.

Let's see these stats on scoring chances and expected goals against please.

[aGENT]

39 minutes ago, 24K PureCool said:

Myers is definitely over paid by like $1.5million.

Not gonna be an issue after next year (assuming JB stop spending on the bottom 6).

He's not even overpaid that. A good chunk of those other guys noted in the OP signed those deals as RFA's, with multiple RFA years included in the deal. UFA years simply cost more.

 

If you look at actual UFA contracts, Myers is right in the wheelhouse for comparable, top 4, 22 minute, RHD with some offense.

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

“Tell me you don’t understand zonestarts, without telling me you don’t understand zonestarts.”  
 

OK, let’s get something straight: Myers does not start the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone.

 

At 5v5, maybe 10% of his shifts start in the defensive zone.

 

Myers’ 5v5 shifts this season:

 

Offensive zone starts: 63

Neutral zone starts: 122

Defensive zone starts: 73

On the fly starts: 460

Total: 718

 

So, percentage of shifts Myers starts in the defensive zone = 73/718 = 10.17%
 

(Pretty close to my 10% guess at the top.)

 

Zonestarts are **REALLY** not understood well on CDC. 
 

Offensive zonestart percentage = offensive zonestarts / (offensive + defensive zonestarts)

 

It’s actually a pretty misleading number. People think the percentage is for all shifts, but it’s actually just looking at a small sliver of the total shifts (offensive and defensive zonestarts). Most players start way more shifts on the fly and in the neutral zone. Offensive and defensive zonestarts make up only a small percentage of total shifts. So, they just don’t really factor in too much, when considering things like CF% (other than some extreme deployment, and even then, the adjustments are fairly small).

 

For Myers’ offensive zonestart percentage, I doubt you’d adjust his CF% more than maybe +0.25-0.5%, so it’s basically negligible.

 

This is why most stats sites don’t even offer zonestart adjusted stats any more. It was determined a long time ago that zonestarts don’t really account for much, and for the vast majority of players, the adjustment is tiny and not worse even considering, when evaluating or comparing players, on stats like CF%, etc. 

 

Myers’ CF% is worse than nearly all of the players listed by the OP (I think Morrissey was worse), but even accounting for deployment (which again, is basically negligible difference), it’s still really bad.

 

And on the Canucks D, here’s how Myers stacks up, relative to his teammates.

 

CF%Rel: -2.35 (2nd worst)

FF%Rel: -4.64 (2nd worst)

SF%Rel: -3.88 (2nd worst)

xGF%Rel: -5.67 (worst)

SCF%Rel: -3.61 (worst)

HDCF%Rel: -5.75 (2nd worst)

 

Penalty differential: -11; 12 taken, 1 drawn (worst)

 

I’m not here to drag Myers, but any claim that he has a positive statistical profile, is either not understanding the stats, or misleading people.

 

His underlying numbers are not good.

[24K PureCool]

3 minutes ago, aGENT said:

He's not even overpaid that. A good chunk of those other guys noted in the OP signed those deals as RFA's, with multiple RFA years included in the deal. UFA years simply cost more.

 

If you look at actual UFA contracts, Myers is right in the wheelhouse for comparable, top 4, 22 minute, RHD with some offense.

I was referring payment by performance independent on ufa / rfa status. 

[aGENT]

1 minute ago, 24K PureCool said:

I was referring payment by performance independent on ufa / rfa status. 

There's literally no such thing.

[kanucks25]

12 minutes ago, Viper007 said:

Let's see these stats on scoring chances and expected goals against please.

 

Also consider that he's not being used on the shutdown role (tough assignment / against other team's best).

 

And the minor penalties.

 

Edited March 27, 2021 by kanucks25

[rychicken]

Drink some Canucks kool-aid and imagine a defence with 6 Tyler Myers... 

[Toyotasfan]

Imagine if our defence played like it was an insult for the other team to cross our blue line and took more shots from the point. How much does inferior coaching affect the players stats? I still think we have a much better D core than what Baumgartner coaches out of them. The best teams in the league do not give up the blue line easily.

[Dumb Nuck]

Myers, do we really need him?

[PhillipBlunt]

3 minutes ago, Toyotasfan said:

Imagine if our defence played like it was an insult for the other team to cross our blue line and took more shots from the point. How much does inferior coaching affect the players stats? I still think we have a much better D core than what Baumgartner coaches out of them. The best teams in the league do not give up the blue line easily.

The Baumgartner angle is never addressed enough. Or as much as I want it to be addressed. 

[Silky mitts]

29 minutes ago, SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME said:

“Tell me you don’t understand zonestarts, without telling me you don’t understand zonestarts.”  
 

OK, let’s get something straight: Myers does not start the majority of his shifts in the defensive zone.

 

At 5v5, maybe 10% of his shifts start in the defensive zone.

 

Myers’ 5v5 shifts this season:

 

Offensive zone starts: 63

Neutral zone starts: 122

Defensive zone starts: 73

On the fly starts: 460

Total: 718

 

So, percentage of shifts Myers starts in the defensive zone = 73/718 = 10.17%
 

(Pretty close to my 10% guess at the top.)

 

Zonestarts are **REALLY** not understood well on CDC. 
 

Offensive zonestart percentage = offensive zonestarts / (offensive + defensive zonestarts)

 

It’s actually a pretty misleading number. People think the percentage is for all shifts, but it’s actually just looking at a small sliver of the total shifts (offensive and defensive zonestarts). Most players start way more shifts on the fly and in the neutral zone. Offensive and defensive zonestarts make up only a small percentage of total shifts. So, they just don’t really factor in too much, when considering things like CF% (other than some extreme deployment, and even then, the adjustments are fairly small).

 

For Myers’ offensive zonestart percentage, I doubt you’d adjust his CF% more than maybe +0.25-0.5%, so it’s basically negligible.

 

This is why most stats sites don’t even offer zonestart adjusted stats any more. It was determined a long time ago that zonestarts don’t really account for much, and for the vast majority of players, the adjustment is tiny and not worse even considering, when evaluating or comparing players, on stats like CF%, etc. 

 

Myers’ CF% is worse than nearly all of the players listed by the OP (I think Morrissey was worse), but even accounting for deployment (which again, is basically negligible difference), it’s still really bad.

 

And on the Canucks D, here’s how Myers stacks up, relative to his teammates.

 

CF%Rel: -2.35 (2nd worst)

FF%Rel: -4.64 (2nd worst)

SF%Rel: -3.88 (2nd worst)

xGF%Rel: -5.67 (worst)

SCF%Rel: -3.61 (worst)

HDCF%Rel: -5.75 (2nd worst)

 

Penalty differential: -11; 12 taken, 1 drawn (worst)

 

I’m not here to drag Myers, but any claim that he has a positive statistical profile, is either not understanding the stats, or misleading people.

 

His underlying numbers are not good.

Beautiful post sums it up here 

[Hairy Kneel]

How much do his penalties influence these numbers? Or do they?