[PGT] Vancouver Canucks at Anaheim Ducks | Nov. 14, 2021

[mll]

2 hours ago, StanleyCupOneDay said:

That hit piece article from THN about Benning is absolute biased horse$&!#. The stupidest, most simplistic way to analyze drafting success is in hindsight to look at which players could have been had at spot X and criticize the team for missing out on them without mentioning the number of other NHL clubs that also missed out on drafting said player. The other biased thing they do in that piece is not give praise for drafting a NHL player that’s no longer on the team. Does that mean every team needs to keep every drafted NHL player to be regarded as successful in drafting? It’s beyond ridiculous reasoning.

 

The question being asked: Is Jim Benning a good drafter of NHL players? So let’s instead actually do a fair analysis of the Canucks overall drafting capability. What happened after they were drafted can be debated ad nauseam and is immaterial to whether he has drafted well or not.
 

Let’s go through the article player by player. I’m only going to look at the players mentioned, not all Canucks picks.

 

2014:

 

Virtanen - A gamble we obviously lost on.

McCann - Still playing in the NHL, 23 other teams passed on him, definitely a win.

Demko - In hindsight a home run pick. 35 teams passed on him.

Forsling - Still playing in the NHL, 125 teams passed on him, obvious big win.

 

Nylander - 6 other teams passed on him.

Ehlers - 7 other teams passed on him.

 

2015:

 

Boeser - Still playing in the NHL, 22 other teams passed on him, huge win.

Gaudette - This one is more in the grey area. He definitely outperformed his drafting position, but only played 150 games and is now out of the league. 148 teams passed on him. Slight win to a wash here imo.

 

2016:

 

Juolevi - Another pick that seems to have gone bust.

Lockwood - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 63 other teams passed on him. TBD

 

Matthew Tkachuk - 4 other teams passed on him.

Clayton Keller - 5 other teams passed on him.

Mikhail Sergachev - 7 other teams passed on him.

 

2017:

 

Pettersson - Still playing in the NHL, 4 teams passed on him, definitely a win despite his recent poor play.

Lind - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 32 other teams passed on him. TBD

Gadjovich - Too soon to say. 54 other teams passed on him. TBD

DiPietro - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 63 other teams passed on him. TBD

Rathbone - Too soon to say. 94 other teams passed on him. TBD

 

Nic Hague - 32 other teams passed on him.

Jason Robertson - 37 other teams passed on him.

 

2018:

 

Hughes - Still playing in the NHL, 6 teams passed on him, home run pick.

Woo - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 36 other teams passed on him. TBD

Madden - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 67 other teams passed on him. TBD

Utunen - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 129 other teams passed on him. TBD

Manukyan - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 185 other teams passed on him. TBD

Thiessen - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 191 other teams passed on him. TBD

 

Alexander Romanov - 36 other teams passed on him.

 

2019:

 

Podkolzin - Too soon to say, but looking good so far. 9 other teams passed on him. TBD

Höglander - Still playing in the NHL, 39 teams passed on him, absolute win.

 

To sum up:

 

In 2014 we drafted 3 NHL players

In 2015 we drafted 1-2 NHL players

In 2016 we drafted 0-1 NHL players

In 2017 we drafted 1-5 NHL players

In 2018 we drafted 1-6 NHL players

In 2019 we drafted 1-2 NHL players

 

On average each draft produces 60 NHL players of which 40 have a significant playing career.
 

Every draft we got a significant NHL’er except 2016. We underperformed expectations in 2016, were average in 2015 and overperformed in 2014. We also have the potential to overperform in the 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts.
 

Under Jim Benning If 1 additional NHL player of significance comes from the drafts of 17, 18 and 19 (at least probable imo) we will have overperformed in 66.6%, underperformed in 16.66% and were average in 16.66% of drafts held with him in charge. Not exactly the kind of stats that would lead one to believe his drafting has been middling or a miss.

Stating that 23 teams passed on McCann suggests that the 23 players picked before him aren’t as good.  The teams who picked a better player than him made the right choice though so they passed with reason.

 

Edited November 17, 2021 by mll

[rychicken]

11 minutes ago, EmilyM said:

I never understood why people tune out when the team is losing. That’s when things get interesting. If it’s another blow out, that’s interesting. If the Canucks overcome the adversity and pull out a win, that’s interesting. No matter what happens, another page of the story turns.

and being here on CDC with us is interesting

[Elias Pettersson]

So to summarize today’s events:

 

1. Francesco meets with Benning in private 

2. Francesco asks Benning why we are losing and how he is going to fix it 

3. Benning tells Francesco that he just purchased a new whiteboard for Green to use in the dressing room 

4. Benning states that Green will start using that whiteboard on a regular basis to help players understand their roles in Green’s system 

5. Francesco finishes drinking  his espresso and tells Benning that they will meet again in private in a few weeks 

 

Did I miss anything? 

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, mll said:

Stating that 23 teams passed on McCann suggests that the 23 players picked before him aren’t as good.  The teams who picked a better player than him made the right choice though so they passed with reason.

 

1	23	Colorado	Conner Bleackley	C	Red Deer Rebels [WHL]
1	24	Vancouver	Jared McCann	L	Soo Greyhounds [OHL]	363	71	93	164	126	2021-22

 

Yeah I think it's safe to say Conner Bleackley isn't any good...

 

Joe Sakic probably wants a redo of the 2014 draft...

[Herberts Vasiljevs]

6 hours ago, spook007 said:

This is called cutting to the chase... good post +1

 

 

[NewbieCanuckFan]

58 minutes ago, -Vintage Canuck- said:

 

 

[PhillipBlunt]

I wonder if Miller could be traded to St. Louis for Parayko.

[mll]

41 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

1	23	Colorado	Conner Bleackley	C	Red Deer Rebels [WHL]
1	24	Vancouver	Jared McCann	L	Soo Greyhounds [OHL]	363	71	93	164	126	2021-22

 

Yeah I think it's safe to say Conner Bleackley isn't any good...

 

Joe Sakic probably wants a redo of the 2014 draft...

Colorado was actually looking to trade that pick.  There was a clip where Rutherford was trying to get 11th overall for their pick and the Colorado pick.  No idea who Pittsburgh was willing to trade.  Nashville kept 11th and they made the Neal-Hornqvist trade without the pick.

 

Toronto passed over Tkachuk because they logically picked Matthews.

[luckylager]

9 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

I wonder if Miller could be traded to St. Louis for Parayko.

Would take more than Miller imo

[mll]

10 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

I wonder if Miller could be traded to St. Louis for Parayko.

They extended Parayko this off-season to an 8 year deal starting next season - pretty strong signal that they will keep him.  There’s a full NTC on the 1st 6 years per CapFriendly.

[khay]

5 hours ago, StanleyCupOneDay said:

That hit piece article from THN about Benning is absolute biased horse$&!#. The stupidest, most simplistic way to analyze drafting success is in hindsight to look at which players could have been had at spot X and criticize the team for missing out on them without mentioning the number of other NHL clubs that also missed out on drafting said player. The other biased thing they do in that piece is not give praise for drafting a NHL player that’s no longer on the team. Does that mean every team needs to keep every drafted NHL player to be regarded as successful in drafting? It’s beyond ridiculous reasoning.

 

The question being asked: Is Jim Benning a good drafter of NHL players? So let’s instead actually do a fair analysis of the Canucks overall drafting capability. What happened after they were drafted can be debated ad nauseam and is immaterial to whether he has drafted well or not.
 

Let’s go through the article player by player. I’m only going to look at the players mentioned, not all Canucks picks.

 

2014:

 

Virtanen - A gamble we obviously lost on.

McCann - Still playing in the NHL, 23 other teams passed on him, definitely a win.

Demko - In hindsight a home run pick. 35 teams passed on him.

Forsling - Still playing in the NHL, 125 teams passed on him, obvious big win.

 

Nylander - 6 other teams passed on him.

Ehlers - 7 other teams passed on him.

 

2015:

 

Boeser - Still playing in the NHL, 22 other teams passed on him, huge win.

Gaudette - This one is more in the grey area. He definitely outperformed his drafting position, but only played 150 games and is now out of the league. 148 teams passed on him. Slight win to a wash here imo.

 

2016:

 

Juolevi - Another pick that seems to have gone bust.

Lockwood - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 63 other teams passed on him. TBD

 

Matthew Tkachuk - 4 other teams passed on him.

Clayton Keller - 5 other teams passed on him.

Mikhail Sergachev - 7 other teams passed on him.

 

2017:

 

Pettersson - Still playing in the NHL, 4 teams passed on him, definitely a win despite his recent poor play.

Lind - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 32 other teams passed on him. TBD

Gadjovich - Too soon to say. 54 other teams passed on him. TBD

DiPietro - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 63 other teams passed on him. TBD

Rathbone - Too soon to say. 94 other teams passed on him. TBD

 

Nic Hague - 32 other teams passed on him.

Jason Robertson - 37 other teams passed on him.

 

2018:

 

Hughes - Still playing in the NHL, 6 teams passed on him, home run pick.

Woo - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 36 other teams passed on him. TBD

Madden - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 67 other teams passed on him. TBD

Utunen - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 129 other teams passed on him. TBD

Manukyan - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 185 other teams passed on him. TBD

Thiessen - Too soon to say as he’s yet to crack the NHL. 191 other teams passed on him. TBD

 

Alexander Romanov - 36 other teams passed on him.

 

2019:

 

Podkolzin - Too soon to say, but looking good so far. 9 other teams passed on him. TBD

Höglander - Still playing in the NHL, 39 teams passed on him, absolute win.

 

To sum up:

 

In 2014 we drafted 3 NHL players

In 2015 we drafted 1-2 NHL players

In 2016 we drafted 0-1 NHL players

In 2017 we drafted 1-5 NHL players

In 2018 we drafted 1-6 NHL players

In 2019 we drafted 1-2 NHL players

 

On average each draft produces 60 NHL players of which 40 have a significant playing career.
 

Every draft we got a significant NHL’er except 2016. We underperformed expectations in 2016, were average in 2015 and overperformed in 2014. We also have the potential to overperform in the 2017, 2018 and 2019 drafts.
 

Under Jim Benning If 1 additional NHL player of significance comes from the drafts of 17, 18 and 19 (at least probable imo) we will have overperformed in 66.6%, underperformed in 16.66% and were average in 16.66% of drafts held with him in charge. Not exactly the kind of stats that would lead one to believe his drafting has been middling or a miss.

Getting 1 NHL player in every draft would be considered average. 

 

There are multiple drafts where JB got more than 1 so that already qualifies him as above average. We don't need to do any complicated analysis.

 

Drafting Pod and Hog in 2019 was a great achievement. These guys made the team within 2 years of being drafted (Hog in 1 year). Podz is an NHL player and a type of winger that we need on this team. He is a heavy winger that isn't afraid to use his body and go to the dirty areas. He can be like Burrows only heavier. And Hog could become the best winger on this team at some point. That kid really reminds me of Brad Marchand. 

 

2018, Hughes is a homerun pick. And lot of people say this was a no brainer but I remember a lot of people criticizing this pick because Hughes is small. And even I wasn't 100% convinced it was a homerun pick until I saw him play.

 

2017, EP was another homerun. First line player that was initially ranked 10 or lower. 

 

Sad thing is that we are wasting ELC years of Hog and Podz. The team had the makings of a 2010 Chicago Blackhawks team. But unfortunately, the team didn't address size and grit aspect. Hopefully that will be addressed next year. 

 

No one is winning a Stanley cup on skill and speed alone because there are literally so many different ways to win a playoff game. 

 

2011 team could win it in many ways although injuries did them in at the end. So could 1994 team, this team was outdone by luck.

 

[luckylager]

Lol wtf

 

mll, are you actually a wet blanket?

[Elias Pettersson]

23 minutes ago, mll said:

Colorado was actually looking to trade that pick.  There was a clip where Rutherford was trying to get 11th overall for their pick and the Colorado pick.  No idea who Pittsburgh was willing to trade.  Nashville kept 11th and they made the Neal-Hornqvist trade without the pick.

 

Toronto passed over Tkachuk because they logically picked Matthews.

Sakic should have just kept the pick and instead of drafting Bleackley he could have drafted the guy who went 25th.  Mind you Benning could have done the same thing too.  That 25th pick is probably much better than the 11th pick...

 

1

11

Nashville

Kevin Fiala

L

HV71 Jonkoping [SweHL]

351

93

113

206

169

2021-22

 

1	23	Colorado	Conner Bleackley	C	Red Deer Rebels [WHL]
1	24	Vancouver	Jared McCann	L	Soo Greyhounds [OHL]	363	71	93	164	126	2021-22
1	25	Boston	David Pastrnak	R	Sodertalje SK [Swe-1]	451	204	236	440	201	2021-22

 

[PhillipBlunt]

25 minutes ago, mll said:

They extended Parayko this off-season to an 8 year deal starting next season - pretty strong signal that they will keep him.  There’s a full NTC on the 1st 6 years per CapFriendly.

I hear you. However they lost to Arizona tonight, so anything’s possible. 

[Angry Goose]

2 hours ago, EmilyM said:

I never understood why people tune out when the team is losing. That’s when things get interesting. If it’s another blow out, that’s interesting. If the Canucks overcome the adversity and pull out a win, that’s interesting. No matter what happens, another page of the story turns.

Its because Im too emotionally invested in this team to see it fail. So when it looks bleak as hell (and it sure has) with the pitchforks out its hard to stay enthusiastic about watching the team play.  that being said, we will see what happens on Weds

[mll]

22 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Sakic should have just kept the pick and instead of drafting Bleackley he could have drafted the guy who went 25th.  Mind you Benning could have done the same thing too.  That 25th pick is probably much better than the 11th pick...

 

1

11

Nashville

Kevin Fiala

L

HV71 Jonkoping [SweHL]

351

93

113

206

169

2021-22

 

1	23	Colorado	Conner Bleackley	C	Red Deer Rebels [WHL]
1	24	Vancouver	Jared McCann	L	Soo Greyhounds [OHL]	363	71	93	164	126	2021-22
1	25	Boston	David Pastrnak	R	Sodertalje SK [Swe-1]	451	204	236	440	201	2021-22

 

Who knows who Pittsburgh was looking to pick at 11th.   Wasn't Pastrnak as they took Kapanen at 22nd.

 

[mll]

20 minutes ago, PhillipBlunt said:

I hear you. However they lost to Arizona tonight, so anything’s possible. 

St-Louis believes their window is now - they've extended Schenn, Binnington, Parayko, signed Krug in free agency the past year or so. 

 

 

[Hairy Kneel]

Not normally a fan of Buttons 

But some good points

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, PhillipBlunt said:

I wonder if Miller could be traded to St. Louis for Parayko.

Miller to the NY Islanders for Noah Dobson.  Or Boeser for Scott Mayfield and Oliver Wahlström.  I'd play Wahlstrom with Petey and Höglander.  I really like Wahlström and Mayfield would be a perfect partner for Hughes.

 

The Islanders are sucking right now and they freed up a bunch of cap space so they are most likely looking to do a deal for a top 6 player.  Miller has almost as many points as Nelson and Barzal combined, so we'd be selling high.  Miller or Boeser would both fit in with the Islanders.