The_Rocket Posted September 7, 2022 Share Posted September 7, 2022 Some important things to note on Bo Horvat from a negotiation stand point: points and points per game are very important factors for contracts, as well as time on ice and usage. last season was the first year bo has ever scored at greater than a 30 goal per 82 games pace. he has never scored at 0.8 points per game or better in one season (last year, 95 players who played at least half the season scored 0.8 points per game or better... Bo came 108th). I'm a big Bo Horvat fan and think he is an important part to this team, but i do not understand the arguments for 6.5-7 million AAV on a long term deal. he isn't a first line calibre offensive player and even though he plays big minutes and tough matchups, he isn't exactly an ace defensive player. most of his scoring comes on the PP since he is tasked with pretty difficult 5v5 minutes. he's obviously a leader on the team, wears a letter, and has been on the team for a very long time. A proper comparable should have similar 5v5 numbers, similar on-ice role, similar power play boosts to their overall scoring, similar tenure on their team, similar age when their contract started, and similar leadership responsibilities. By far the closest and best comparable for Bo Horvat is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the Edmonton Oilers. Last offseason the oilers re-signed RNH to an 8 year deal at 5.125 million AAV. He is almost exactly 2 years older than Bo and his contract starts two seasons before Bo's will. Here are his stat lines over the 3 years prior to signing (2018/19-2020-21) compared to Bo's last 3 years (2019/20-2021/22): 5V5 RNH 14:07 TOI per game 199 games played 37 goals 45 assists 82 points Bo 14:14 TOI per game 195 games played 28 goals 46 assists 74 points All Strengths RNH 20:23 TOI per game 66 goals 99 assists 165 points Bo TOI per game 19:41 72 goals 72 assists 144 points They have very similar Time on Ice both 5v5 and total, and similar scoring numbers as well. both were high picks and wear a letter on their team (RNH is an A and Bo is the C). Bo arguably is the better goal scorer on the power play and RNH gets more assists on the PP, but 5v5 its kinda the opposite. You could argue that nugent hopkins has the McDavid bump to his numbers, but he also spent significant time with puljujarvi, yamamoto, and alex chiasson as his wingers 5v5. Bo's most common linemates 5v5 are tanner pearson, nils hoglander, and brock boeser (followed closely by conor garland) obviously not mcdavid level players but still good players for the most part. RNH plays a bigger role on the PK for the oilers compared to Bo for the Canucks, but they get similar 5v5 matchup assignments (maybe bo gets a bit tougher assignments). Overall I'd say they are very comparable players and there isn't much room to argue Bo deserve significantly more than RNH. adjusting for increased cap inflation would bring bo to 8 by 5.25 or $42 million total money. while this does represent a decrease from his current cap hit, its worth noting that Bo's current contract is all base salary with no trade protection. RNH's new contract (which also was less AAV than his previous deal) had deferred income for after the escrow is paid back, signing bonuses in the middle years, buyout protection by having low base salary in the final years, and a full NMC for the duration of the contract. the Canucks could utilize a similar structure in order to keep Bo on basically the same contract. This should be where the target contract is for the team and convincing bo to take this deal should be a priority 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phil_314 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 That's quite the hometown discount, even for the captain to take (he signed a $5.5 mil * 6 year deal as he was entering some solid years, and after a career year last year of 30 goals, I wouldn't be surprised if he scored another 25-30 this year while playing heavy two-way minutes). For that reason, I'd thank him if he did want to take a pay cut to help the team and be paid in accordance with what he probably deserves (per this comparable), but if he wanted to go the Palat route and chase the bag and contract security (Palat earned $5.3 last season with Tampa, this year on he's making $6 mil with full NMC; Bo would go from $5.5 to $6.25 or $6.5?) I wouldn't hold it against him. Bergeron in his best years signed for $6.875 (though he won Selkes there so that should factor in), O'Reilly's at $7.5 (though given his beastliness he's another level above so I doubt Bo makes that much) and I think those would form Bo's high ceiling. To take slight pay bumps (e.g. accept what Trocheck/ Copp signed for) or even take a pay cut (like Nuge or take Eriksson Ek's cap hit might be asking for a bit much though). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 1 hour ago, The_Rocket said: Some important things to note on Bo Horvat from a negotiation stand point: points and points per game are very important factors for contracts, as well as time on ice and usage. last season was the first year bo has ever scored at greater than a 30 goal per 82 games pace. he has never scored at 0.8 points per game or better in one season (last year, 95 players who played at least half the season scored 0.8 points per game or better... Bo came 108th). I'm a big Bo Horvat fan and think he is an important part to this team, but i do not understand the arguments for 6.5-7 million AAV on a long term deal. he isn't a first line calibre offensive player and even though he plays big minutes and tough matchups, he isn't exactly an ace defensive player. most of his scoring comes on the PP since he is tasked with pretty difficult 5v5 minutes. he's obviously a leader on the team, wears a letter, and has been on the team for a very long time. A proper comparable should have similar 5v5 numbers, similar on-ice role, similar power play boosts to their overall scoring, similar tenure on their team, similar age when their contract started, and similar leadership responsibilities. By far the closest and best comparable for Bo Horvat is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the Edmonton Oilers. Last offseason the oilers re-signed RNH to an 8 year deal at 5.125 million AAV. He is almost exactly 2 years older than Bo and his contract starts two seasons before Bo's will. Here are his stat lines over the 3 years prior to signing (2018/19-2020-21) compared to Bo's last 3 years (2019/20-2021/22): 5V5 RNH 14:07 TOI per game 199 games played 37 goals 45 assists 82 points Bo 14:14 TOI per game 195 games played 28 goals 46 assists 74 points All Strengths RNH 20:23 TOI per game 66 goals 99 assists 165 points Bo TOI per game 19:41 72 goals 72 assists 144 points They have very similar Time on Ice both 5v5 and total, and similar scoring numbers as well. both were high picks and wear a letter on their team (RNH is an A and Bo is the C). Bo arguably is the better goal scorer on the power play and RNH gets more assists on the PP, but 5v5 its kinda the opposite. You could argue that nugent hopkins has the McDavid bump to his numbers, but he also spent significant time with puljujarvi, yamamoto, and alex chiasson as his wingers 5v5. Bo's most common linemates 5v5 are tanner pearson, nils hoglander, and brock boeser (followed closely by conor garland) obviously not mcdavid level players but still good players for the most part. RNH plays a bigger role on the PK for the oilers compared to Bo for the Canucks, but they get similar 5v5 matchup assignments (maybe bo gets a bit tougher assignments). Overall I'd say they are very comparable players and there isn't much room to argue Bo deserve significantly more than RNH. adjusting for increased cap inflation would bring bo to 8 by 5.25 or $42 million total money. while this does represent a decrease from his current cap hit, its worth noting that Bo's current contract is all base salary with no trade protection. RNH's new contract (which also was less AAV than his previous deal) had deferred income for after the escrow is paid back, signing bonuses in the middle years, buyout protection by having low base salary in the final years, and a full NMC for the duration of the contract. the Canucks could utilize a similar structure in order to keep Bo on basically the same contract. This should be where the target contract is for the team and convincing bo to take this deal should be a priority Bo will be closer to 8 per than 5. I’m seeing Bo coming in around 7 per. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vinny in Vancouver Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 5 minutes ago, Alflives said: Bo will be closer to 8 per than 5. I’m seeing Bo coming in around 7 per. I think he signs between 6.25 to 6.75. If he signs 6.25, it will be long term and NMC in many years. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 6 minutes ago, Alflives said: Bo will be closer to 8 per than 5. I’m seeing Bo coming in around 7 per. 50 mil total over 8 years would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alflives Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 3 minutes ago, JM_ said: 50 mil total over 8 years would be nice. Same total dollar as JTM but over 8 years? So the Landeskog 7 mil x 8? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 1 minute ago, Alflives said: Same total dollar as JTM but over 8 years? So the Landeskog 7 mil x 8? it would be a slight raise up to 6.25 aav. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
-AJ- Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 Would be a huge discount for him to take that deal, but RNH has a NMC for all eight years, thus somewhat justifying the lower hit. I think Horvat might do something similar on an eight-year deal. I wouldn't expect lower than maybe $6.3M and even that is a pretty notable discount. Also, I applaud you for correctly using RNH's numbers before the contract. Not too many users consider this when comparing contracts. It would be an interesting argument from our team, but honestly, I think it's the case that RNH took a big discount for the Oilers and Bo's team would probably call that an anomaly more than the standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcam Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 5 hours ago, The_Rocket said: Some important things to note on Bo Horvat from a negotiation stand point: points and points per game are very important factors for contracts, as well as time on ice and usage. last season was the first year bo has ever scored at greater than a 30 goal per 82 games pace. he has never scored at 0.8 points per game or better in one season (last year, 95 players who played at least half the season scored 0.8 points per game or better... Bo came 108th). I'm a big Bo Horvat fan and think he is an important part to this team, but i do not understand the arguments for 6.5-7 million AAV on a long term deal. he isn't a first line calibre offensive player and even though he plays big minutes and tough matchups, he isn't exactly an ace defensive player. most of his scoring comes on the PP since he is tasked with pretty difficult 5v5 minutes. he's obviously a leader on the team, wears a letter, and has been on the team for a very long time. A proper comparable should have similar 5v5 numbers, similar on-ice role, similar power play boosts to their overall scoring, similar tenure on their team, similar age when their contract started, and similar leadership responsibilities. By far the closest and best comparable for Bo Horvat is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the Edmonton Oilers. Last offseason the oilers re-signed RNH to an 8 year deal at 5.125 million AAV. He is almost exactly 2 years older than Bo and his contract starts two seasons before Bo's will. Here are his stat lines over the 3 years prior to signing (2018/19-2020-21) compared to Bo's last 3 years (2019/20-2021/22): 5V5 RNH 14:07 TOI per game 199 games played 37 goals 45 assists 82 points Bo 14:14 TOI per game 195 games played 28 goals 46 assists 74 points All Strengths RNH 20:23 TOI per game 66 goals 99 assists 165 points Bo TOI per game 19:41 72 goals 72 assists 144 points They have very similar Time on Ice both 5v5 and total, and similar scoring numbers as well. both were high picks and wear a letter on their team (RNH is an A and Bo is the C). Bo arguably is the better goal scorer on the power play and RNH gets more assists on the PP, but 5v5 its kinda the opposite. You could argue that nugent hopkins has the McDavid bump to his numbers, but he also spent significant time with puljujarvi, yamamoto, and alex chiasson as his wingers 5v5. Bo's most common linemates 5v5 are tanner pearson, nils hoglander, and brock boeser (followed closely by conor garland) obviously not mcdavid level players but still good players for the most part. RNH plays a bigger role on the PK for the oilers compared to Bo for the Canucks, but they get similar 5v5 matchup assignments (maybe bo gets a bit tougher assignments). Overall I'd say they are very comparable players and there isn't much room to argue Bo deserve significantly more than RNH. adjusting for increased cap inflation would bring bo to 8 by 5.25 or $42 million total money. while this does represent a decrease from his current cap hit, its worth noting that Bo's current contract is all base salary with no trade protection. RNH's new contract (which also was less AAV than his previous deal) had deferred income for after the escrow is paid back, signing bonuses in the middle years, buyout protection by having low base salary in the final years, and a full NMC for the duration of the contract. the Canucks could utilize a similar structure in order to keep Bo on basically the same contract. This should be where the target contract is for the team and convincing bo to take this deal should be a priority Bo Horvat 27, 6'0, 212 lbs, is a core player, very valuable plays severals roles, will produce GP 75-- G 25-29 -- PTS 56--62 Key in face off circle over 56% - PP 13 G -- shut down other teams #1 player -- 200 foot game - makes other player better around him.. Never really put in a offensive role with good wingers.. Horvat is worth between 6.5 - 6.7 million this would be a deal for Vancouver.... Your head is buried in the sand if you think Horvat 8 yrs X 5.25 million?????? Serious please.... Bo Horvat is making 5.5 million now ??? Please that is one of the most ridiculous post I read on Canuck site... Horvat is worth minimum 6.5 million...AAV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Canuck #12 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 (edited) Horvat trying to sign RNH contract before RNH can: Edited September 8, 2022 by Captain Canuck #12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drakrami Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 RNH was underpaid because Oilers is gunning for the cup with McDavid/Draisaitl with no cap to spare. If he goes to the UFA market, he is worth 6-6.5mil/year. Last 2 seasons RNH scored 16 and 11 goals. Horvat has 19 and 31 goals. RNH is also soft, Horvat is much more resourceful. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Rocket Posted September 8, 2022 Author Share Posted September 8, 2022 8 hours ago, wildcam said: Bo Horvat 27, 6'0, 212 lbs, is a core player, very valuable plays severals roles, will produce GP 75-- G 25-29 -- PTS 56--62 Key in face off circle over 56% - PP 13 G -- shut down other teams #1 player -- 200 foot game - makes other player better around him.. Never really put in a offensive role with good wingers.. Horvat is worth between 6.5 - 6.7 million this would be a deal for Vancouver.... Your head is buried in the sand if you think Horvat 8 yrs X 5.25 million?????? Serious please.... Bo Horvat is making 5.5 million now ??? Please that is one of the most ridiculous post I read on Canuck site... Horvat is worth minimum 6.5 million...AAV You just ignore all the data that show RNH and Bo are very close comparables? Similar role similar deployment similar scoring… there is precedent for Bo to sign in the low 40’s total money Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildcam Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 1 hour ago, The_Rocket said: You just ignore all the data that show RNH and Bo are very close comparables? Similar role similar deployment similar scoring… there is precedent for Bo to sign in the low 40’s total money Have you heard of a top player taking a pay cut producing over 25 goals ? Boeser just signed for 6.65 X 3 years??? Do you really think Horvat should go from 5.5 million to 5.2 million and top 5 players on team? Sorry I could see if Horvat was on down slide.. Horvat is getting better and just 27.. Horvát is gold for next 5--6 years very valuable worth 6.6 million AAV.. You are so off on what Horvat is worth..Horvat will be signed 6.5--6.8 AAV X 7 years-- Signed before October 15th, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eeeeergh Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 15 hours ago, JM_ said: 50 mil total over 8 years would be nice. Yup pretty much exactly this. 50-52m over 8 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wai_lai416 Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 2 hours ago, The_Rocket said: You just ignore all the data that show RNH and Bo are very close comparables? Similar role similar deployment similar scoring… there is precedent for Bo to sign in the low 40’s total money so you ignore the fact that RNH in his best years doesnt even take half the amount of draws of horvat.. and are we going to simply ignore Nugent Hopkin most common linemate prior to this season is Draisatil? you know the guy that's #2 in total points in the last 5 seasons? they are never deployed in the same role.. you are telling me the last 4-5 season when Draisatil is playing with RNH.. they were their um shutdown matchup line against other teams top line? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 comparing Bo to Nugget is like comparing a bull to a chihuahua. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 (edited) 18 hours ago, The_Rocket said: Some important things to note on Bo Horvat from a negotiation stand point: points and points per game are very important factors for contracts, as well as time on ice and usage. last season was the first year bo has ever scored at greater than a 30 goal per 82 games pace. he has never scored at 0.8 points per game or better in one season (last year, 95 players who played at least half the season scored 0.8 points per game or better... Bo came 108th). I'm a big Bo Horvat fan and think he is an important part to this team, but i do not understand the arguments for 6.5-7 million AAV on a long term deal. he isn't a first line calibre offensive player and even though he plays big minutes and tough matchups, he isn't exactly an ace defensive player. most of his scoring comes on the PP since he is tasked with pretty difficult 5v5 minutes. he's obviously a leader on the team, wears a letter, and has been on the team for a very long time. A proper comparable should have similar 5v5 numbers, similar on-ice role, similar power play boosts to their overall scoring, similar tenure on their team, similar age when their contract started, and similar leadership responsibilities. By far the closest and best comparable for Bo Horvat is Ryan Nugent-Hopkins on the Edmonton Oilers. Last offseason the oilers re-signed RNH to an 8 year deal at 5.125 million AAV. He is almost exactly 2 years older than Bo and his contract starts two seasons before Bo's will. Here are his stat lines over the 3 years prior to signing (2018/19-2020-21) compared to Bo's last 3 years (2019/20-2021/22): 5V5 RNH 14:07 TOI per game 199 games played 37 goals 45 assists 82 points Bo 14:14 TOI per game 195 games played 28 goals 46 assists 74 points All Strengths RNH 20:23 TOI per game 66 goals 99 assists 165 points Bo TOI per game 19:41 72 goals 72 assists 144 points They have very similar Time on Ice both 5v5 and total, and similar scoring numbers as well. both were high picks and wear a letter on their team (RNH is an A and Bo is the C). Bo arguably is the better goal scorer on the power play and RNH gets more assists on the PP, but 5v5 its kinda the opposite. You could argue that nugent hopkins has the McDavid bump to his numbers, but he also spent significant time with puljujarvi, yamamoto, and alex chiasson as his wingers 5v5. Bo's most common linemates 5v5 are tanner pearson, nils hoglander, and brock boeser (followed closely by conor garland) obviously not mcdavid level players but still good players for the most part. RNH plays a bigger role on the PK for the oilers compared to Bo for the Canucks, but they get similar 5v5 matchup assignments (maybe bo gets a bit tougher assignments). Overall I'd say they are very comparable players and there isn't much room to argue Bo deserve significantly more than RNH. adjusting for increased cap inflation would bring bo to 8 by 5.25 or $42 million total money. while this does represent a decrease from his current cap hit, its worth noting that Bo's current contract is all base salary with no trade protection. RNH's new contract (which also was less AAV than his previous deal) had deferred income for after the escrow is paid back, signing bonuses in the middle years, buyout protection by having low base salary in the final years, and a full NMC for the duration of the contract. the Canucks could utilize a similar structure in order to keep Bo on basically the same contract. This should be where the target contract is for the team and convincing bo to take this deal should be a priority RNH is a decent comp. One thing does set them aside a little and that's goal scoring. Horvat is a consistent 20 plus goal guy. And was doing that for years with Pearson, Bear and LE on his wing, all while playing against the best in the world. Plus he's a face off ace and has been since he entered the league. Few guys have taken as many face offs as he has. Not a bad comp really. RNH also plays the wing at times - Horvat never does. As far as second line C's goes - Hayes set the high bar a couple years ago. Last season Horvat outproduced his contract by 1 million. Figure as a UFA he's going to get his pay day. 6.5 x 8 is my prediction. And we won't be sad about that. He's absolutely getting a raise. RNH didn't earn his last deal ... Horvat did. RNH was overpaid during his RFA years by quite a margin, Horvat was a little better. Making up for that somewhat, he's getting a raise. One last thing. RNH gets a 6% tax break.... that we don't. Edited September 8, 2022 by IBatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IBatch Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 42 minutes ago, JM_ said: comparing Bo to Nugget is like comparing a bull to a chihuahua. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JM_ Posted September 8, 2022 Share Posted September 8, 2022 4 minutes ago, IBatch said: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Rocket Posted September 8, 2022 Author Share Posted September 8, 2022 39 minutes ago, IBatch said: RNH is a decent comp. One thing does set them aside a little and that's goal scoring. Horvat is a consistent 20 plus goal guy. And was doing that for years with Pearson, Bear and LE on his wing, all while playing against the best in the world. Plus he's a face off ace and has been since he entered the league. Few guys have taken as many face offs as he has. Not a bad comp really. RNH also plays the wing at times - Horvat never does. As far as second line C's goes - Hayes set the high bar a couple years ago. Last season Horvat outproduced his contract by 1 million. Figure as a UFA he's going to get his pay day. 6.5 x 8 is my prediction. And we won't be sad about that. He's absolutely getting a raise. RNH didn't earn his last deal ... Horvat did. RNH was overpaid during his RFA years by quite a margin, Horvat was a little better. Making up for that somewhat, he's getting a raise. One last thing. RNH gets a 6% tax break.... that we don't. 5v5 they are pretty even for goal scoring. from 2017/2018 to 2021/2022, they have scored the exact same number of 5v5 goals with pretty similar games played (Nuge has actually played slightly fewer games). Bo scored 9 more total goals over the last 2 seasons 5v5, but nuge had 9 more 5v5 goals in the 2019/2020 season so those differences cancel out. the other 2 years they were the exact same each year head to head. Bo went off this year for sure, both 5v5 and on the pp, but this is the first time in Bo's career he has paced at over 30 goals per game. i think to assert Bo is a high end goal scorer after having a career shooting percentage year (15.90%) is a bit of a reach. Prior to last season, bo shot at a 12.63% clip throughout his career. if he had've shot at that rate last year, he would have scored ~25 goals and been on a 29 goal pace (still really good!). at the end of the day i think we can comfortably view bo as a solid 2nd line 5v5 player, high end PP Bumper player, high end face off guy, and is used in all situations. overpaying a player like that into his mid 30s represents significant risk. much more risk than the controversial JT Miller contract. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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