[Discussion] Do You Have the Stomach For a Rebuild?

[MaxVerstappen33]

2 hours ago, Coconuts said:

I suppose that depends on how you view what happened in Colorado, there's a bit of misconception about that team. https://www.milehighhockey.com/2022/7/1/23188653/colorado-avalanche-were-not-an-example-of-a-rebuild

 

A lot of thinks went right for that squad, from Makar turning out how he did to the Duchene deal going the way it did. Also, having had high picks in both Duchene and Ryan O'Reilly develop into players worth trading helped. 

 

We could ideally try for a shorter term rebuild though, I agree. But when you enter a rebuild you're signed up for the long haul, could very well take longer. I think it'd be worth rolling the dice on. 

 

I do think Horvat ends up being traded, I think he's ready for a fresh start somewhere else. 

Even a long term rebuild that fails along the way, would be better than no rebuild. I think we already had a failed rebuild of sorts. Tanking this year would be the 2nd phase of the rebuild. Eventually, the the force of gravity, you accumulate enough to be a cup contending team. The leafs also had a failed rebuild and then in phase 2 they got Matthews.

 

I am worried AF that Detroit or Anaheim will beat us to another cup after their rebuilds, in the same way that Colorado beat us in the early 2000's and then 20 years later, beat us again to another cup. 

 

[MaxVerstappen33]

article comment

 

Quote

I'm not 'claiming this will be some sort of 07-08 phenomenon'. I'm lamenting lazy loser fan culture, and pointing out that most fans here today would have voted to tear down what ended up being the best team in franchise history before it even had a chance to happen.

When you look at the ages and talent on the roster, this team is in a *far* better position right now than that team was.

Good organizations generate player development over and above what is expected. This happened to the 2008-2012 Canucks. It happened to the 1995-2008 Red Wings. It's happening right now to the Florida Panthers, as an example. *That* should be the goal, not 'Oh noes, we have a bad RD situation on a young average team, I guess we just have to blow it up and lose for 5 years'.

There is some truth to this.  In 2007-2008, Tony Gallagher wanted to trade the Sedins and Edler to do a rebuild. That was before anyone knew the Sedins would turn into the best players in the league. 

 

We have to build on what we have now. 

 

 

[Coconuts]

1 hour ago, MaxVerstappen33 said:

Even a long term rebuild that fails along the way, would be better than no rebuild. I think we already had a failed rebuild of sorts. Tanking this year would be the 2nd phase of the rebuild. Eventually, the the force of gravity, you accumulate enough to be a cup contending team. The leafs also had a failed rebuild and then in phase 2 they got Matthews.

 

I am worried AF that Detroit or Anaheim will beat us to another cup after their rebuilds, in the same way that Colorado beat us in the early 2000's and then 20 years later, beat us again to another cup. 

 

Nah, Benning's goal was always to get us to the playoffs. It was retool this, move out picks to get players who are further ahead in their development, make trades and signing in hopes they help us compete for the playoffs. Despite their best efforts we weren't simply very good but I wouldn't say not being good was the goal. 

 

That being said, whether we rebuild or not we need to start acquiring picks. Or at least, for the love of god, stop trading ours away.

 

 

 

[Solinar]

On 10/25/2022 at 10:13 PM, J.I.A.H.N said:

@aGENT

@Solinar

@EddieVedder

 

Well guys. Yes Seth Jones is over paid. No argument. But!

 

There are 32 1st pairing RHD in the league...............................Seth Jones is Chicago's 1st pairing RHD. He plays 25 minutes a game, 3rd amongst all RHD. Plays PP and PK for Chicago. He is 6'4 and 209 lbs.

 

Now, I don't want to point at you 3, but there are many on these boards that do not see the Value of Tyler Myers, but he is noticeable when not there, and not in a good way, yet many on here see no value.

 

On HF Boards, when it was suggested by me that a Miller swap was available, they said that he plays a very good none event game as the Number 1 Dman in Chicago. Is he the big point getter? No, but there has to be a reason he has the number 3 overall RHD minutes in the whole NHL.

 

I suggest you are looking at his price tag. Chicago is a better team than us, with half the horses.................I could be wrong, but maybe you are? I would suggest as the Cap goes up, that his terrible contract will look better.

 

  I'm sorry, it feels like we are doubling down on another OEL style trade at that point.  We would be buying high on a defenseman that is overpriced, locked into that overpriced contract long term, and is on the decline.  Everything about it says 'buyer beware' to me.  A few years ago, before he was in Chicago, I would have completely agreed with you.  I liked him from his draft year, and couldn't understand why he fell to Nashville, and thought Nashville was making a mistake trading him to CBJ.  But, watching him play, he just isn't a stud, 9million dollar defenseman.   If he was 6, I'd say giver, but he's basically the cost of 2 out of 3 players on our rightside, and doesn't move the needle.  That being said, I'm more than willing to be wrong, and I'd make that trade to edmonton in a heartbeat

[J.I.A.H.N]

1 hour ago, Solinar said:

  I'm sorry, it feels like we are doubling down on another OEL style trade at that point.  We would be buying high on a defenseman that is overpriced, locked into that overpriced contract long term, and is on the decline.  Everything about it says 'buyer beware' to me.  A few years ago, before he was in Chicago, I would have completely agreed with you.  I liked him from his draft year, and couldn't understand why he fell to Nashville, and thought Nashville was making a mistake trading him to CBJ.  But, watching him play, he just isn't a stud, 9million dollar defenseman.   If he was 6, I'd say giver, but he's basically the cost of 2 out of 3 players on our rightside, and doesn't move the needle.  That being said, I'm more than willing to be wrong, and I'd make that trade to edmonton in a heartbeat

No need to say sorry Solinar

I have the same fears, and if there are other ways to solve the RHD, I am all ears!

I hate the idea of a rebuild, but we are going to be stuck in the middle for 5/6 years if we don't do something

Again, I am all ears.........if somebody has a better idea

 

Just want to say, first its sitting in the middle for 5/6 years, then its another 3/4 for a rebuild, if it is not another 7/8 years like this time.........

 

Just like you, I just want to see us with some potential to get to the top 10........I want a plan!

[Baggins]

19 hours ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

I question whether we truly ever tanked.  Sure the results kind of stank but look at our draft positions.  Yes, it's a "lottery" but you can also only move up or down so many spots in the draft order.  Frankly, we even sucked at sucking.

 

But yeah, look at the Oilers for proof of your statement.  Playoff team?  Sure but serious contender?  Not a chance.

For every team that tanked and became a contender there is a team that tanked only to retank again, and again. As I said, there is no guaranteed formula. It's building a team around your good talent that is the key. Plus you absolutely need to score draft hits out side top 10 picks to keep cheap young players coming in.. The biggest problem Benning faced coming in was nothing on the farm and only one player under 27 on the roster worth keeping. Had he tanked when he took over how many years of the high end talent drafted would be wasted rebuilding and entire team and stocked the farm team for depth? We took too long building around the WCE, and then too long again building around the Sedins. At least the Sedins got to contender status even if the window was small. The reason Chicago had such a big window to contend is there was a lot already in place before drafting Toews and Kane. If you want a long window your best talent needs to come towards the end rather than the beginning of rebuilding. Maintaining the window depends on good drafting and smart trades. High end talent is important but if you fail to build around them you're spinning your wheels.

[NewbieCanuckFan]

59 minutes ago, Baggins said:

For every team that tanked and became a contender there is a team that tanked only to retank again, and again. As I said, there is no guaranteed formula. It's building a team around your good talent that is the key. Plus you absolutely need to score draft hits out side top 10 picks to keep cheap young players coming in.. The biggest problem Benning faced coming in was nothing on the farm and only one player under 27 on the roster worth keeping. Had he tanked when he took over how many years of the high end talent drafted would be wasted rebuilding and entire team and stocked the farm team for depth? We took too long building around the WCE, and then too long again building around the Sedins. At least the Sedins got to contender status even if the window was small. The reason Chicago had such a big window to contend is there was a lot already in place before drafting Toews and Kane. If you want a long window your best talent needs to come towards the end rather than the beginning of rebuilding. Maintaining the window depends on good drafting and smart trades. High end talent is important but if you fail to build around them you're spinning your wheels.

Problem is, there ain't much on the farm now.  History repeating itself.

[Baggins]

3 minutes ago, NewbieCanuckFan said:

Problem is, there ain't much on the farm now.  History repeating itself.

We have some pretty good forward prospects.

[Provost]

1 hour ago, Baggins said:

We have some pretty good forward prospects.

No one who is even a likely NHLer at this point.  No one near the level of Horvat who was sitting there when the last regime took over.

[Baggins]

44 minutes ago, Provost said:

No one who is even a likely NHLer at this point.  No one near the level of Horvat who was sitting there when the last regime took over.

Sure Horvat was "sitting there" when Benning took over. He was drafted top 10 though. What was there on the farm of NHL quality at the time? But I'd say we have a pretty good top 6 right now. With some pretty young guys playing.

 

Lekkerimaki is "sitting there" right now. I thought Karlsson could have made the team in preseason and has 5 pts in 4 AHL games. I can see Karlsson being a top 6 forward in the NHL. Klimovich looked pretty good in preseason as well. I can see him making middle six in the NHL in another year or two. If they were NHL'ers at this point they would be in the NHL rather than being prospects. It doesn't mean they won't be. You can't have it both ways. 

[steviewonder20]

4 hours ago, Baggins said:

We have some pretty good forward prospects.

Nobody who looks at nhl team prospects rates our group highly. We may have the odd promising prospect, but nothing like LA for example. We need more picks and we need to not trade picks but instead dump some players to get more picks. We are ranked 26th out of 32 teams.

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/

Edited October 29, 2022 by steviewonder20

[Baggins]

17 minutes ago, steviewonder20 said:

Nobody who looks at nhl team prospects rates our group highly. We may have the odd promising prospect, but nothing like LA for example. We need more picks and we need to not trade picks but instead dump some players to get more picks. We are ranked 26th out of 32 teams.

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/nhl-farm-system-rankings/

We need to build around the good players we have. 

[Warhippy]

I've had probably 5 or 6 dozen posts over the last decade about the teams that have sucked; how long they've sucked and what it's meant.  From about 2006 through 2018 it was these teams

 

Florida

Edmonton

Toronto

Carolina

Buffalo

Arizona

Islanders

Columbus

Tanked for years, intentionally or not and most of which have gone on to success after a decade of futility

Special mention to 

Tampa

Colorado

Who tanked but didn't tank for as long or as hard and had those prime assets spread out over a few years instead of every single year

 

Since about 2015 to present

New Jersey

Buffalo

Arizona

Ottawa

Detroit

Teams that have sucked, torn it down and are trying to improve through the draft in a big way

 

Special mention to

New York

Who managed to win the draft twice but also have a superstar in Panarin refuse to sign anywhere else and had two super stud defence do the same in Trouba and Fox.

 

Of all those teams, Buffalo and Arizona are the outliers who have thus far not improved or gotten better.  Of all those teams, they have essentially over the last 14 years shared the top 5 universally between them.  Buffalo is finally getting better after prioritizing defence finally.  Arizona is honestly just useless and it will break my heart watching them draft Bedard.  But obviously, in our last decade we can see while it would have been awful and painful it's overwhelming that teams did in fact improve get better and in fact compete hard after their decades.

 

I am ready for a rebuild

 

2023:  Bedard/Michkov/Carlsson

2024: Kivihaju/Celebrini

2025: Brzustewicz/Misa

 

3 years.  Acquire picks by the boatload and let's get this done.  We CAN be more like New York, Colorado or Tampa if we get that foundation done right and falter a year or two later

[Solinar]

20 hours ago, J.I.A.H.N said:

No need to say sorry Solinar

I have the same fears, and if there are other ways to solve the RHD, I am all ears!

I hate the idea of a rebuild, but we are going to be stuck in the middle for 5/6 years if we don't do something

Again, I am all ears.........if somebody has a better idea

 

Just want to say, first its sitting in the middle for 5/6 years, then its another 3/4 for a rebuild, if it is not another 7/8 years like this time.........

 

Just like you, I just want to see us with some potential to get to the top 10........I want a plan!

I'm going to be clinical and surgical.  There, to my mind, is just no easy and sure way forward at this point.  You have 2 routes, hopefully retool, and get lucky, or tear it down to what you would consider to be essentials, and gain enough to justify the pain, and build outwards.  That means, possibly giving up on a couple of fan favourites for significant return.  And pushing that window back farther than we'd ever want.....again.

  I believe that we are 3 years of pain, 2 years of middling, and contending after that point, IF we do things wisely, and get lucky.  That means swallowing the results and trying to lay a foundation, right here, right now.  You identify not only the people you want to draft, the prospects you think others aren't going to have room for, but who you can trade to come trade deadline, and what you're going to have to do to make those trades...trades that happen.  Aka, do something that we rarely do, which is actually build value on middling assets by putting them in the best position to succeed....on paper, while swallowing the results in the Loss column.  You want to have control of the game plan, you better be able to take the pain.

  Next comes identifying what you want to have your team play like, and be.  That is something that Benning just couldn't ever do.  He was one with jigsaw pieces from 8 different puzzles trying to hammer together a checker board.  Hence we have a team full of pieces, and not a team that is actually cohesive, that has a play style and more importantly, an identity.  We're slow, but not heavy, we're skill but not enough push thru.  We have tenacity but not the size to make it ...meaningful.  

  I'm not one that goes on the 'need big size to win,' must be able to punch concussions into cement blocks.  I like speed, skill, but paired with attitude, and tenacity.  Want to win....but HATE to lose.  Would go out there and skate thru that big brick wall to bring home the goal.  In my mind, it isn't 'always' size that is important, because I see Myers and go, hey, fans, I know he's big, but he's not the big you think he is, because he doesn't play that heavy game effectively.  Gudbranson was much the same.  I call that chasing 'Chara'.  Tryamkin fit in that mould.  You're chasing a vision of what you want, without being able to properly process what the piece or player in front of you is away from your vision of what you'd wish for instead.  Take the 'desire' out of the picture, and start to properly evaluate players and fit it into the vision of what you want the team to be.  And be consistent.

  Now that I've rambled, I'll get back to the major question, which is, how do you retool the RHD.  I don't believe there is a trade out there that I would bite on, unless I could get Burns, Pietrangelo, Doughty, or Ekblad.  I mean, you deliver me one of those 4 guys, and preferably with the team retaining, and us not giving up more than let's say, a major prospect and pick, you're making me have some shivers.  That being said, you don't usually get access to those guys, you don't want to pay for them, and by the time you can get them, you probably don't want them as they're broken.  So, we draft and keep our eyes open.  We restock the cupboards so we operate from a position of strength and can either luck out and cultivate, or have the assets on hand to make the necessary surgical trade.  Benning blew our timeline to pieces as he went out the door, trying to shortcut on trades that didn't deliver.  OEL and Garland became the hill he died on, and he queued us to 3 lost seasons at least because of it.  He didn't have patience, had 1 year to wait it out (contracts to Beagle, Eriksson, and Roussel) and would have had the cap room to actually pool off the necessary moves to take advantage of the current financial crunch.  Here's hoping that Allvin has the necessary stones to not do the same, will trade from our forward depth later on in the season to recoup and redirect our team, and that we'll see an onus on....acquiring more picks as we move forward.  That, and actual results from our player development side, as only Demko has truly graduated from it, as our other young talent succeeds by largely skipping it.

[Solinar]

By the way, the only people I truly believe that I'd want to have on my team in 3 years, are Pettersson, Demko, Hughes, Podkholzin, and possibly Horvat.  Garland, Pearson, Mikheyev, Boesser, OEL, Myers, the bottom six by and large, and our plethora of 7th dmen are largely expendable.  Build up their value, play them like you love them, but trade them as soon as you can.  Of the prospects, like Hoglander, but not attached.  Rathbone, he's intriguing, but can he gain that next step?  He's not an option to be bottom pairing, so either he's top 4 or out.  We don't have RHD prospects to write home about.  EP 2.0...intriguing.  Klimovich...intriguing.  Intriguing doesn't mean I won't trade them.  Just means, I place some interim value on what they could bring, so that puts an eye towards what I'd want in return.  And stop paying to get rid of people, instead of building value and using our 3 slots of salary retention.  Use them wisely, but I'm not afraid to use them, as were previous administrations.  It is an effective weapon, use it.  Same with offer sheets.  A weapon not used, isn't actually there.

Edited October 29, 2022 by Solinar

[J.I.A.H.N]

@Solinar

 

Well, in the end, there is not one person on here that does not just want a winning team. The sooner the better! It does not matter how we get there................just get there!

 

Whether its the scorched earth process, which is 3 to 5 years, or the fingers crossed someone develops......who knows? Or something else, I do not truly care, as long as we get there!

 

I just do not see how we keep all our forwards and reduce cap, and get 1 or 2 RHD to complete our team.................IMO, there just is not a fix, unless you use something?????

 

Of course you could use picks to solve your problem, but that only postpones the rebuild, down the road...............until our older vets start aging out, which then costs you more picks to fix, because you have no assets you can use other than.

 

Just think of this.............Schmidt was trade to Vancouver for a 3rd, because they needed cap, Vancouver in turn did the very same thing with him. IMO Schmidt had skill and look what had to happen..............basically they gave him away. So how does that make you a contender? It doesn't!

 

So, anyway you shake it, its difficult, and time consuming. 

 

Sometimes, you just have to wipe the slate clean and start over, sometimes not.................I do not have the answer

 

 

Edited October 29, 2022 by J.I.A.H.N

[MaxVerstappen33]

21 hours ago, Baggins said:

For every team that tanked and became a contender there is a team that tanked only to retank again, and again. As I said, there is no guaranteed formula. It's building a team around your good talent that is the key. Plus you absolutely need to score draft hits out side top 10 picks to keep cheap young players coming in.. The biggest problem Benning faced coming in was nothing on the farm and only one player under 27 on the roster worth keeping. Had he tanked when he took over how many years of the high end talent drafted would be wasted rebuilding and entire team and stocked the farm team for depth? We took too long building around the WCE, and then too long again building around the Sedins. At least the Sedins got to contender status even if the window was small. The reason Chicago had such a big window to contend is there was a lot already in place before drafting Toews and Kane. If you want a long window your best talent needs to come towards the end rather than the beginning of rebuilding. Maintaining the window depends on good drafting and smart trades. High end talent is important but if you fail to build around them you're spinning your wheels.

I agree. But how many of the failed rebuild teams truly got 2 star players in the lineup at the same time ? 

Kane Teows, Crosby Malkin level talent. 

 

I guess it could be argued that Colorados first rebuild had 2 stars and failed. 

[Provost]

15 hours ago, Warhippy said:

I've had probably 5 or 6 dozen posts over the last decade about the teams that have sucked; how long they've sucked and what it's meant.  From about 2006 through 2018 it was these teams

 

Florida

Edmonton

Toronto

Carolina

Buffalo

Arizona

Islanders

Columbus

Tanked for years, intentionally or not and most of which have gone on to success after a decade of futility

Special mention to 

Tampa

Colorado

Who tanked but didn't tank for as long or as hard and had those prime assets spread out over a few years instead of every single year

 

Since about 2015 to present

New Jersey

Buffalo

Arizona

Ottawa

Detroit

Teams that have sucked, torn it down and are trying to improve through the draft in a big way

 

Special mention to

New York

Who managed to win the draft twice but also have a superstar in Panarin refuse to sign anywhere else and had two super stud defence do the same in Trouba and Fox.

 

Of all those teams, Buffalo and Arizona are the outliers who have thus far not improved or gotten better.  Of all those teams, they have essentially over the last 14 years shared the top 5 universally between them.  Buffalo is finally getting better after prioritizing defence finally.  Arizona is honestly just useless and it will break my heart watching them draft Bedard.  But obviously, in our last decade we can see while it would have been awful and painful it's overwhelming that teams did in fact improve get better and in fact compete hard after their decades.

 

I am ready for a rebuild

 

2023:  Bedard/Michkov/Carlsson

2024: Kivihaju/Celebrini

2025: Brzustewicz/Misa

 

3 years.  Acquire picks by the boatload and let's get this done.  We CAN be more like New York, Colorado or Tampa if we get that foundation done right and falter a year or two later

You forgot to include us as one of those teams that has sucked.  I think 4th or 5th worst overall since the start of Benning’s tenure.  Worse if you calculate wins per dollar spent… the teams worse than us were budget teams not expecting to win, not capped out teams.  We haven’t rebuilt and have stayed bad.

I agree with your rebuild sentiment for sure though.

 

We are already near the bottom of the league, we could actually trade away our valuable assets and end up better, or at least no worse.  We almost certainly have to take veterans back who don’t have much term left to make cap money work in big trades even if we don’t particularly want or need them.  If Hughes and Hoglander went out to Jersey and aside from a boatload of their prospects and picks in return they neeed to send Severson and Tatar our way to make the cap work… we are probably better in the short term (until we flipped them for picks at the deadline).

[Warhippy]

2 hours ago, Provost said:

You forgot to include us as one of those teams that has sucked.  I think 4th or 5th worst overall since the start of Benning’s tenure.  Worse if you calculate wins per dollar spent… the teams worse than us were budget teams not expecting to win, not capped out teams.  We haven’t rebuilt and have stayed bad.

I agree with your rebuild sentiment for sure though.

 

We are already near the bottom of the league, we could actually trade away our valuable assets and end up better, or at least no worse.  We almost certainly have to take veterans back who don’t have much term left to make cap money work in big trades even if we don’t particularly want or need them.  If Hughes and Hoglander went out to Jersey and aside from a boatload of their prospects and picks in return they neeed to send Severson and Tatar our way to make the cap work… we are probably better in the short term (until we flipped them for picks at the deadline).

But, we've never picked higher than 5th.  we've never sold off assets.  We've never committed to getting younger.  All we've done is supplement.  I didn't include us because we've not committed to that at all in any fashion.  Barring Hughes/Pettersson in all honesty; we'd be supplementing Miller et al instead of committing to it

[canuck73_3]

25 minutes ago, Warhippy said:

But, we've never picked higher than 5th.  we've never sold off assets.  We've never committed to getting younger.  All we've done is supplement.  I didn't include us because we've not committed to that at all in any fashion.  Barring Hughes/Pettersson in all honesty; we'd be supplementing Miller et al instead of committing to it

We’re the second youngest team in the league, not sure how much more committed to getting younger you want?