Is our core five good enough to win?

[flat land fish]

I worry that Hughes is this generations Phil Housley, great offensively but not strong enough defensively to contribute to winning hockey.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, flat land fish said:

I worry that Hughes is this generations Phil Housley, great offensively but not strong enough defensively to contribute to winning hockey.

Same as Makar.  Struggled defensively until getting Toews for his partner.  Supporting players are extremely important.  If we kept Tanev, Hughes would score even more (5 on 5) because he wouldn’t be having to play so defensively.  

[Nucker 67]

I think the Canucks need to add a Top 5 pick this year to help boost the core.

 

My guess is they don't, though. So, no, VAN won't win a Cup, because they're too impatient to build it properly.  

 

 

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

7 hours ago, Viper007 said:

Neither can Colorado.  MacKinnon is out, and the only reason they're winning is Rantanen.

Is this a joke?  This is one of the weirdest takes I've seen.  Colorado has been one of the most injured teams this season.  They've lost MacKinnon, Byram, Landeskog, and Nichuskin to man-games throughout the season.  Compare that to our team losses: Pearson and Demko.

 

Colorado is nothing like us.  They are still a competitive team without their best players.  They have a playoff-bound record.  They have let in 50 less goals.  Meanwhile we are getting blown out when we lost one single player.

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

7 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I think if we had the balls to trade a forward for defenceman in the off-season we'd be a playoff team easily. There was ceetainly a deal around Boeser for Marino to be made, we just didn't make it and NJD swooped in.

 

Tack an elite top-5 defenceman onto that group and you've got a contender.

Marino is a modern day Dan Hamhuis.  Excellent 2-way defender and has all the metrics to back it up.  He is great, and our goal differential would be much higher this year.  But our core still consists of weak defensive players like Miller and OEL.  We will never contend when our highest paid players are having the season they've had this year.

51 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Same as Makar.  Struggled defensively until getting Toews for his partner.  Supporting players are extremely important.  If we kept Tanev, Hughes would score even more (5 on 5) because he wouldn’t be having to play so defensively.  

Hard to say Makar struggled defensively the way Hughes did.  The problem with Hughes is that he overcommits offensively KNOWING he can't trust his partner, and gets burned on the rush.  If I am the other team going up the ice, it's not a bad idea to attack Hughes.  More so than Makar.

[spook007]

1 hour ago, Gawdzukes said:

Lol, did you just say Colorado can't win with one of their core out, and say one of their core is out, but they're winning because of one of their core? 

 

  

This what always has me shaking my head on CDC. No body ever wants to trade anyway good they just want to trade these cap anchors. I've been waiting 4 years just to trade Pearson let alone 5 of these in one single period. That's why we gotta stop signings like Miller. We simply don't have the cap.

Don't disagree at all...

And this is the problem we face by cutting corners. 
The question asked was if this core could win. 
In order to win with the core mentioned, we need to get rid of the mentioned players to have the cap space. 
If the hockey fairy godmother came by, and took the mentioned players away, I'm sure the remaining players would have a decent chance with the additions suggested, but if not, no they won't win... hence I voted no in the poll...

Boeser and Garland I'm sure we could find takers for (with limited return) and Myers and Pearson are 1,5 years away from leaving anyway (maybe Myers at the TDL), so its only really Poolman we need to put a mask on in order to sell...

The real question I think is, can we manage to keep this core together until Myers and Pearsons contracts are up? With Miller, Bo and Kuz contracts coming up, I don't see how its posible unless Myers goes at the TDL, then maybe they will have money until Peteys contract needs upped. 
 

In the end it looks like something is gonna give, and it will be one of Miller, Bo, QH, Kuz or god forbid Petey that will be moved together with the usual suspects... its a simple numbers game.
The OEL contract is going to pull teeth.... the next few years. 

Edited December 26, 2022 by spook007

[Crabcakes]

8 hours ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

I think if we had the balls to trade a forward for defenceman in the off-season we'd be a playoff team easily. There was ceetainly a deal around Boeser for Marino to be made, we just didn't make it and NJD swooped in.

 

Tack an elite top-5 defenceman onto that group and you've got a contender.

I think that the Marino trade was more of a cap dump by Pitt.  You would certainly think that Allvin and JR would have the inside track on a deal with Pittsburgh.

 

Look at the return on Marino, a young D with potential who is now playing in the AHL, Ty Smith.  Vancouver didn't have anything like that to offer which is why New Jersey got the deal.

[Crabcakes]

Demko

Petey

Hughes

Miller

Horvat

 

I just don't see this group elevating the play of the rest of the team.  They clearly need a defensive D, preferably a right shot but of the 3 forwards, I would only call Petey a 2-way player.

 

The group is strong offensively but when ever I see blind passes being thrown into the deep slot with 3 or more players on the wrong side of the puck by Miller I'm yelling at my TV. I wouldn't mind seeing him moved but not so that they can pay their 2C too much.  Horvat, if he won't sign for $7M will have to go.  Is 7 x $8M a bad deal for Horvat?  He's really not a 60 goal man.

 

I'm liking the 2-way ability of Mikheyev.  Keep this guy!  He's useful and he can burn.

 

Kuzmenko, another great add.  I think they really need to find a way to keep this guy.

 

I can see Boeser and Garland moved.  Free up some cap.

 

Myers, after his bonus is paid out, might be attractive but don't trade him before getting a RHD that can play 20 mins

 

I'm also looking forward to getting Dermott back.  This will relegate Stillman to the press box permanently I hope.

 

I'm rambling a bit here but I think that 2 of those 5 so called core players could very well be gone by next season.  They'll need a 2C, 3C and RHD.  It's a big ask.

[Gawdzukes]

1 hour ago, flat land fish said:

I worry that Hughes is this generations Phil Housley, great offensively but not strong enough defensively to contribute to winning hockey.

Yeah it's something that has crossed my mind as well. Although I have some seen some real growth in defensive areas and his compete level is super high so I think he can figure it out. Having a defensively sound complimentary player (Schenn with speed and a higher hockey IQ) would go so far in giving him the environment to develop that way.

 

41 minutes ago, Bob.Loblaw said:

Marino is a modern day Dan Hamhuis.  Excellent 2-way defender and has all the metrics to back it up.  He is great, and our goal differential would be much higher this year.  But our core still consists of weak defensive players like Miller and OEL.  We will never contend when our highest paid players are having the season they've had this year.

Hard to say Makar struggled defensively the way Hughes did.  The problem with Hughes is that he overcommits offensively KNOWING he can't trust his partner, and gets burned on the rush.  If I am the other team going up the ice, it's not a bad idea to attack Hughes.  More so than Makar.

Yeah well said. Overall our team defence needs to be better or we're going nowhere. Makar never had the struggles Quinn has ... but #43 has been playing with the worst RD's in the league for 3 years now. Makar spends most of his time in the offensive end. Having a good shot is extremely beneficial for these types of guys. Hopefully Quinn can develop that because it would be exponentially invaluable and probably lead to getting caught up ice less.

[Alflives]

5 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

Yeah it's something that has crossed my mind as well. Although I have some seen some real growth in defensive areas and his compete level is super high so I think he can figure it out. Having a defensively sound complimentary player (Schenn with speed and a higher hockey IQ) would go so far in giving him the environment to develop that way.

 

Yeah well said. Overall our team defence needs to be better or we're going nowhere. Makar never had the struggles Quinn has ... but #43 has been playing with the worst RD's in the league for 3 years now. Makar spends most of his time in the offensive end. Having a good shot is extremely beneficial for these types of guys. Hopefully Quinn can develop that because it would be exponentially invaluable and probably lead to getting caught up ice less.

Makar was a suckeroo defensively until he got a great partner.  Hughes was developing perfectly until our GM thought replacing Tanev was a smart move.  Since Tanev left ?Hughes has to be the defensive guy in his pair too.  Although Bear is an improvement over the craperolla Hughes has been stuck with.  Love Schenn, but he is way too slow. 

[J-23]

1. Pettersson

2. RHD

3. Hughes

4. Demko

5. 2nd Line Centre

Then surround the defensive core with strong transition and defensive minded guys. Need size on the backend. 
 

Start going after guys like Mikheyev less like Garland. A guy with size and speed, PK and PP, and can play up and down the lineup.

[higgyfan]

4 hours ago, NUCKER67 said:

I think the Canucks need to add a Top 5 pick this year to help boost the core.

 

My guess is they don't, though. So, no, VAN won't win a Cup, because they're too impatient to build it properly.  

Unless the management can make some trades that return a couple of high-end prospects or young players,

the coming draft will be very significant.  A top 5 pick in a talented draft pool would be huge, but the Canucks

with the way the top line is performing, they will probably end up similar to last year.

 

The bigger elephant in the room, is that Pete's game is taking off this season, but he's still away

from entering his prime.  Barzal is not comparable in any way now.  By the time Pete's contract

is due, he will easily be in the +10 million club, or maybe even in the $11m range.  I suspect that

they want to sign Kuze as well, so along with these 2 contracts they also need to fill certain positions,

and some speed, toughness and defensively sound player.  Of course, not all these things will happen

at once; more like over the next 3 yrs.  Still, a very difficult juggling act.  I hope this management

has the skill to pull off.

Edited December 26, 2022 by higgyfan

[Gawdzukes]

38 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Don't disagree at all...

And this is the problem we face by cutting corners. 
The question asked was if this core could win. 
In order to win with the core mentioned, we need to get rid of the mentioned players to have the cap space. 
If the hockey fairy godmother came by, and took the mentioned players away, I'm sure the remaining players would have a decent chance with the additions suggested, but if not, no they won't win... hence I voted no in the poll...

Boeser and Garland I'm sure we could find takers for (with limited return) and Myers and Pearson are 1,5 years away from leaving anyway (maybe Myers at the TDL), so its only really Poolman we need to put a mask on in order to sell...

The real question I think is, can we manage to keep this core together until Myers and Pearsons contracts are up? With Miller, Bo and Kuz contracts coming up, I don't see how its posible unless Myers goes at the TDL, then maybe they will have money until Peteys contract needs upped. 
 

In the end it looks like something is gonna give, and it will be one of Miller, Bo, QH, Kuz or god forbid Petey that will be moved together with the usual suspects... its a simple numbers game.
The OEL contract is going to pull teeth.... the next few years. 

Yeah perfectly stated. I wasn't calling you out at all as I agree those players need to move to bring in better suited players if this theoretical core could compete. It's just impossible to do when we keep signing more players than we get rid of. Like you said I also have major concerns about being able to rid ourselves of those contracts with enough time to actually redeploy that capspace in a meaningful way.

 

I also agree one of these players need to go and right now unfortunately it looks like Bo. Gosh I wish we had traded Miller. Everything would be on track right now. I'd way rather have Kuz at $6mil than an older more expensive prolonged Miller. Plus we'd have some assets to get a Rd or two. I am really warming up to Kuz but I don't see how we re-sign him without creating more problems cap wise. Having both him and Miller in your top 6 makes it hard to win when you also add the pathetic defenses of Boeser, and Garland. Wow, talk about easy to play against. It's very easy to see why we give up 4 a game.

 

Oh yeah despite OEL playing better lately that could just get ugly and I would definitely rather have that $7 mil in cap too. 

[Gawdzukes]

37 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Makar was a suckeroo defensively until he got a great partner.  Hughes was developing perfectly until our GM thought replacing Tanev was a smart move.  Since Tanev left ?Hughes has to be the defensive guy in his pair too.  Although Bear is an improvement over the craperolla Hughes has been stuck with.  Love Schenn, but he is way too slow. 

Makar didn't suck defensively though, not like Hughes. His worst year, his first he was a +12. Hughes only plus year was the last one and the year before he had an absolutely disastrous -24 year defensively. Too his credit Quinn worked his ass off last year to be night and day better.

 

You are correct Quinn hasn't had the help or supporting cast as Makar though. It could make all the difference. It's criminal of the organization really not to notice that.

 

[DownUndaCanuck]

1 hour ago, Crabcakes said:

I think that the Marino trade was more of a cap dump by Pitt.  You would certainly think that Allvin and JR would have the inside track on a deal with Pittsburgh.

 

Look at the return on Marino, a young D with potential who is now playing in the AHL, Ty Smith.  Vancouver didn't have anything like that to offer which is why New Jersey got the deal.

Rathbone. Would have done the same trade in a heart beat and you could argue we'd only have to give up a 3rd or something.

[Warhippy]

Yes.

 

Petey

Hughes

Horvat

Demko

 

Are good enough to win a cup.  Miller takes too many nights off due to bad plays he just gives up on.  The issue is, they have zero support.  At all.  Zero quality bottom 6 centers or wingers.  Zero quality stay at home defensemen or quality middle of the road roaming D that can defend.  Zero push back when the play gets tough.

 

Collectively those 4 can get it done but they have zero support and once Petey isn't in the equation the scoring is completely gone.

 

So ya, those 4 can get it done.  but not while carrying 17 other players on their backs.

[jyu]

I'd say nay.

 

Let's take Demko out of the equation for now and compare our core 4s to other core 4s.

 

Let's compare to Toronto's core 4 of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Rielly.

 

All of Toronto guys have amazing scoring numbers and underlying stats (CF, GF, xGF, etc). Marner's two way game is so elite that he will win Selke at some point while being a 90-100 point player. Matthews is a 60 goal scorer. Toronto doesn't spend much time in the defensive zone and they are constantly pushing the play in the right direction. And their core is still relatively young that they can improve.

 

In contrast, Petey is the only forward that we have that have the scoring stats backed up by underlying stats. Miller and Horvat have good scoring stats but have poor underlying stats like CF, GF, xGF. They are not the guys that constantly push the play in the right direction and neither of those guys is great in transitioning the puck out of the defensive zone. Each of those guys are is older than Toronto's core so expecting them to re-invent their games and improve much more from what they are now, is rather difficult to envision.

 

Toronto's supporting cast is not the best in the NHL and that's partly the reason why they haven't been able to get out of the first round. However, it should be noted that the teams that have defeated them featured core 4 that is equally as good as Toronto's (except probably Montreal but they were backed by a strong d-core led by Weber and Price).

 

We need to replace at least one of Miller or Horvat with a better player. And depending on who that player is, and depending on how much Petey and Hughes improve their game, we will have a shot.

 

I prefer to keep Horvat in the core and trade Miller but it seems like that ship has sailed. But maybe the management will surprise me by finding a way to trade Miller.

 

[jyu]

1 hour ago, J-23 said:

1. Pettersson

2. RHD

3. Hughes

4. Demko

5. 2nd Line Centre

Then surround the defensive core with strong transition and defensive minded guys. Need size on the backend. 
 

Start going after guys like Mikheyev less like Garland. A guy with size and speed, PK and PP, and can play up and down the lineup.

I agree with your assessment here.

 

The question is, is Horvat good enough as the 2nd line center in your list?

 

If the management's answer to that question is yes, then they better find a way to re-sign Horvat and trade Miller.

 

If the answer is no, then trade Horvat and find a new center. That 2nd center will be a key factor in deciding how to construct the rest of the roster. For example, if it's Bedard or Fantilli, we would have the luxury of Pettersson as a "2nd line" center and having a slightly weaker supporting group might be OK.

 

The lower the quality of who that 2nd center is, the stronger supporting cast needed to win the cup.

 

 

 

 

[IBatch]

4 hours ago, flat land fish said:

I worry that Hughes is this generations Phil Housley, great offensively but not strong enough defensively to contribute to winning hockey.

You have to actually score a bunch of goals to even be considered a guy like that though.   Maybe Makar but not QHs .. he's in his own box. 

Edited December 26, 2022 by IBatch

[Crabcakes]

1 hour ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Rathbone. Would have done the same trade in a heart beat and you could argue we'd only have to give up a 3rd or something.

Perhaps but Smith was 17th OA in 2018.