The 2019 Draft Class -- Different Paths for Different Players (Bains, Podz, Hogz)

[JamesB]

Hoglander just signed a 2-year extension with an AAV of 1.1 million, pretty much as expected.

 

I could not help thinking about the different paths taken by Hoglander and the other two Canuck wingers who are the same age: Bains and Podkolzin. (Bains and Hogs are almost exactly the same age and Podz is a few months younger.)

 

Background:

All three guys were eligible for the 2019 draft.

 

1. Podkolzin. At the start of the 2018-19 year Podz was in the top 5 in a lot of public rankings. He fell a bit over the year but was still a consensus top 10 pick at the time of the draft. He "fell" to the Canucks at #10, partly because of the Russian factor as he had signed a two-year contract in the KHL. But he had already played quite well in the KHL at age 17, which was very impressive. 

 

2. Hoglander. Hogs was generally projected to go late in first round, maybe early in the second, having played well in the SHL in his draft year. The Canucks took him in the second round and he was perceived as having "fallen" to them at #40 overall. He was at the top of a lot of boards when the Canucks took him.

 

3. Bains was a below-average player in the WHL in the 2018-19 season with 6 goals and 18 pts in 63 games. No one would have considered drafting him. The Canucks finally signed him as an undrafted free agent after he played as an overage player in the WHL.

 

As of the 2019 draft, Podz was a borderline elite prospect, Hoglander was a good prospect, and Bains was not even on the radar screen.

 

Now.

Things have changed a lot. All three guys played a lot for Abby last year. Unfortunately, advanced stats are not available for the AHL but here are the standard counting stats.

 

	GP	G	A	Pt	+/-	PPG
Bains	66	13	25	38	6	0.58
Hoglander	45	14	18	32	5	0.71
Podkolzin	28	7	11	18	2	0.64

 

All three guys were similar in points per game (PPG) but if we had advanced stats available I think Bains would be ahead because, over the course of the season in Abby, Bains became a go-to defensive player, often first over the boards on the PK or late in game for a D-zone faceoff when Abby was protecting a lead. And Bains played a lot of tough defensive minutes overall.

 

The point is that, in the last 4 years (since the 2019 draft) Bains has made up a lot of ground on Podz and Hogs. Another factor is that, while all three guys made a lot of progress in Abby last year (as the Canucks finally have a good AHL development staff), Bains is generally regarded as the most improved player on the team last year. He is also regarded as highly coachable and as having a great attitude.

 

In addition, while Bains does not have any "top-6" NHL upside, as a potential bottom-6 forward he has a lot of advantages as his game is now regarded as very responsible and very detailed -- good for the PK and good for playing shutdown. And he is regarded as a great teammate.

 

It is probably still true that Hogs and Podz would be rated as better prospects -- at least they both have higher ceilings. But Bains could be the guy who turns into a valuable, cheap, bottom-6 forward of the type the Canucks need and that Benning was never able to develop in the Canuck farm system.

 

One final note: Silovs is the same age and was taken by the Canucks in the 6th round of the 2019 draft. Right now I would rate him as the most valuable Canuck prospect from that year and maybe the next best Canuck prospect overall after Willander.

 

At this stage,Podz has under-performed his draft position, but he could still get back to the expected performance for a #10 over pick. Hogs is probably pretty close to the expected value for a #40 overall pick or maybe a little ahead. Bains has done really well for an undrafted free agent to get this far and I hope he can one more step to get into the NHL.  But Silovs could be one of the 2 or 3 biggest steals of the 2019 draft.  The 2018 draft year players have also taken varied and interesting development paths but I will stick with 2019 for this post.

 

Anyway, I am hoping that Podz, Hogs, and Bains all have big years next year. I would like to see all three guys on the team going forward.

Edited July 10, 2023 by JamesB

[Kevin Biestra]

Might have to keep an eye on this Bains guy.  He's going the Burrows route.

[Canuck Surfer]

I suppose I am wishing Hogz & Podz spent more time in the AHL earlier.

 

They looked great in Abbotsford.  Plausible, but less exciting than billed in the NHL earlier.  

 

 

* I remain of the opinion team Speed & Senacity are the key ingredients missing from our current line up. 

* Hoglander in particular has plenty of jump, Podz size with good speed.

* S & T are also what values up in PK by the way!

* We just needed these guys working on those things.

 

Maybe neither will be 30 goal scorers?  I think they will be great Canucks.

 

Bains has a shot; good on him considering his background.

[wildcam]

I sure hope Canucks don't trade Hoglander 22--5'10-180lbs very fast and gritty I could be Hoglander get points if in top 6 in the future.

Hoglander 2023-24 - 3rd/ 4th line --12--14 mins -- GP-75 - G 15- PTS 35

Podkolzin 6'1--205 - plays big and good 200 foot game maybe more PK? 3rd line - Gp 75 -G 18 - PTS 39 --(13--14 mins)

 

Winges - 1. Kuzmenko --Boeser -- Mikheyev - Garland - Podkolzin -- Beavillier - Hoglander - Joshua -  Di Giuseppe - Studnika

 

Centre -- 1. Petey --2. Miller -3. Blueger --4. Aman - 5.Dries

[DownUndaCanuck]

Hoglander oozes shades of Jannick Hansen, and he proved he can score at the NHL level in his rookie year. I think he's going to eventually be a regular NHLer, even if it's just a 3rd line forechecking winger. If he can be a cheaper version of Garland for us to be honest I'd be happy.

 

Podkolzin obviously has a much higher ceiling and I think in Abby he's been taught how to play well on the forecheck and defensively if he's not scoring. He's not that far off his 14G rookie season. I think we just have to go slow with him, he may well spend all of next year on Abby's top line but that's not the worst thing in the world. These big powerforwards take longer to develop, he can grow alongside Raty. That being said if he comes into training camp bigger, stronger and smarter defensively, Tocchet will throw him in.

 

There's a spot on the 2nd line wing and 4th line wing up for grabs. PDG has that spot right now but if any one of these guys can show they can forecheck and hit hard to free up space for Miller and Boeser, they'll get that spot. I could easily see Hoglander impress at training camp as he always does. Podkolzin would really have to do a lot to jump straight up on to the 2nd line. I think Beauvillier and Garland will likely play on our 3rd line, but that leaves a nice hole on the 4th line next to Aman and Joshua. I'd be thinking that's Hoglander's spot over Studnicka or Dries

[Alflives]

17 minutes ago, DownUndaCanuck said:

Hoglander oozes shades of Jannick Hansen, and he proved he can score at the NHL level in his rookie year. I think he's going to eventually be a regular NHLer, even if it's just a 3rd line forechecking winger. If he can be a cheaper version of Garland for us to be honest I'd be happy.

 

Podkolzin obviously has a much higher ceiling and I think in Abby he's been taught how to play well on the forecheck and defensively if he's not scoring. He's not that far off his 14G rookie season. I think we just have to go slow with him, he may well spend all of next year on Abby's top line but that's not the worst thing in the world. These big powerforwards take longer to develop, he can grow alongside Raty. That being said if he comes into training camp bigger, stronger and smarter defensively, Tocchet will throw him in.

 

There's a spot on the 2nd line wing and 4th line wing up for grabs. PDG has that spot right now but if any one of these guys can show they can forecheck and hit hard to free up space for Miller and Boeser, they'll get that spot. I could easily see Hoglander impress at training camp as he always does. Podkolzin would really have to do a lot to jump straight up on to the 2nd line. I think Beauvillier and Garland will likely play on our 3rd line, but that leaves a nice hole on the 4th line next to Aman and Joshua. I'd be thinking that's Hoglander's spot over Studnicka or Dries

Wouldn’t Pods need to clear waivers? 

[hammertime]

I went Bains. I think the big thing is if you look at his trajectory. He has improved exponentially every year. He stated as a whl grinder and became a star. He's learned to grind in the A once again his pk is stellar. I expect another big year of growth from him. He has what it takes to become an elite middle 6. Where poz and hog have had it a bit more on a platter due to pedigree and have plateaued. Or developed more slowly with peaks and valleys. Where Bains has consistently improved. 

[nuck-lifer]

Watching Bains excel from day one to the end of the playoffs was amazing. This year he should be on their #1 PK and shutdown line while adding to his offensive output. Smarter player overall then the other 2 but he needs to increase his foot speed for NHL action.

I wish one of these guys was a center though!

[jatylo]

Went with Pod, just because you know what you are getting. At the very least he will be a career grinder type player but the potential of being a top 6.

 

Hogs, I feel like he is our most boom or bust prospect. The games I watched in the AHL, he is normally the best player on the ice. He has Marchand-like antics which can throw off the other teams but he has also cost a few games due to ultimately penalties. Needs to learn to traverse the grey areas better

 

Bains  sadly i haven't paid much attention to but a feel good story of a player earning every minute he gets

[JamesB]

6 hours ago, Alflives said:

Wouldn’t Pods need to clear waivers? 

Pods is still waiver-exempt according to CapFriendly. Hogs is no longer waiver-exempt.

 

Even though they were drafted in the same year, Hogs was signed to his entry-level deal a year earlier (2020 vs. 2021), played in the NHL sooner (2020-21 vs. 2021-22) and was born in an earlier calendar year (Dec. 2000 instead of June 2001).

 

(Hogs has also played more NHL games but that is no longer relevant as Hogs has timed out of being waiver exempt regardless of games played.)

 

This will be Pods' last year of being waiver exempt. In fact, I think he will lose his exemption this year if he plays another 30 NHL games or so.

[Fred65]

If I'm brutally honest I didn't expect much from Pods I never expected greatness. In the 2019 I had my fingers crossed Zegras might fall to us, we went 9th Grrrrr. Anyway Pods was messed around in the KHL/Jrs and he just never seemed to recover. There have been flashes of quality but they're few and far between. I hope he can improve with time. Hogs was a joy to watch in his first years but coaching IMO was killing his game. I hope they take the leash off and let him go. The joke often is he's a good player despite the coach, and i tend to think this covers Hogs ( that's just me ) Bains doesn't understand the word NO, He will get better on his own merits I just hope it's with Vcr

[MikeyD]

I'm a little over halfway in the season for watching the AHL. (I think I'm on like game 55?)

 

So far, I think that Silovs is being ridiculously over hyped right now. He's not NHL ready. He has the tools, has the athleticism and at times the technical ability but his positioning still needs a lot of work. Tends to overshoot on a lot of plays, allows too many weak goals still and is just very inconsistent. Do I think he will be an NHL goaltender at some point? Yes. He's still super young and goalies develop very slowly. However I don't think he's close to what Demko or any of the numerous goalies we had in Utica were like. A lot more raw than that. However with that said, a pretty damn good pick for the round he was selected in. 

 

Secondly I think Hoglander is definitely a tier above Podkolzin. Podkolzin is the same player we saw with the Vancouver Canucks. Inconsistent. He plays too safe of a game and lacks the creativity currently to make him a good offensive player. He has all of the tools but is missing the toolbox. I think if he can ripen in the AHL and learn to be more of a play driver he could be a top 6 player but he just doesn't do it enough from the sample I've seen.

 

With that said, all players are capable of playing at the NHL but Hoglander thus far is the only one capable of consistently moving a needle positively for the team at this current time. I think his forechecking, ability to create offense and creativity will help, however he does play a riskier game and can be prone to turnovers occasionally.

 

Hoglander is ready for a call up again. Podkolzin I think could use another year (to allow him to make mistakes and grow his offense) despite probably being a better option than our current 4th line guys. Silovs I would like probably 2 more years at the AHL level. If he continues to grow at the rate he's going though maybe only 1 year if we are lucky before he does backup duty. I would prefer Martin over Silovs at this time. 

 

I also think Aman is massively overrated here. He fills a hole but doesn't really provide too much. Over the past decade we've become so accustomed to praising guys that don't hurt the team that we don't focus on guys who help the team and we have settled for mediocrity in so many positions. 

[MikeyD]

Oh, also forgot to comment on Bains. Bains is still a long ways away. His floor is consistently improving though but I don't think his offensive ability will translate super well to the NHL given his play style. Has potential but I still think he's a longshot to being a good NHL player. Definitely did improve thus far over the season though. His IQ was growing, but I worry his raw skill set is what's holding him back. I like him in the AHL though and I think he makes his linemates better. 

[Guest]

4 minutes ago, MikeyD said:

I'm a little over halfway in the season for watching the AHL. (I think I'm on like game 55?)

 

So far, I think that Silovs is being ridiculously over hyped right now. He's not NHL ready. He has the tools, has the athleticism and at times the technical ability but his positioning still needs a lot of work. Tends to overshoot on a lot of plays, allows too many weak goals still and is just very inconsistent. Do I think he will be an NHL goaltender at some point? Yes. He's still super young and goalies develop very slowly. However I don't think he's close to what Demko or any of the numerous goalies we had in Utica were like. A lot more raw than that. However with that said, a pretty damn good pick for the round he was selected in. 

 

Secondly I think Hoglander is definitely a tier above Podkolzin. Podkolzin is the same player we saw with the Vancouver Canucks. Inconsistent. He plays too safe of a game and lacks the creativity currently to make him a good offensive player. He has all of the tools but is missing the toolbox. I think if he can ripen in the AHL and learn to be more of a play driver he could be a top 6 player but he just doesn't do it enough from the sample I've seen.

 

With that said, all players are capable of playing at the NHL but Hoglander thus far is the only one capable of consistently moving a needle positively for the team at this current time. I think his forechecking, ability to create offense and creativity will help, however he does play a riskier game and can be prone to turnovers occasionally.

 

Hoglander is ready for a call up again. Podkolzin I think could use another year (to allow him to make mistakes and grow his offense) despite probably being a better option than our current 4th line guys. Silovs I would like probably 2 more years at the AHL level. If he continues to grow at the rate he's going though maybe only 1 year if we are lucky before he does backup duty. I would prefer Martin over Silovs at this time. 

 

I also think Aman is massively overrated here. He fills a hole but doesn't really provide too much. Over the past decade we've become so accustomed to praising guys that don't hurt the team that we don't focus on guys who help the team and we have settled for mediocrity in so many positions. 

Agreed on Silovs...  he tends to go super hot in international competition during the summer, so that's where all the hype comes from.  Mind you, he looked very capable in his NHL time though, so there's that too.  

 

Aman skates well and has great size.  He has a lot of work ahead of him, and he doesn't do anything particularly well but he has potential to be a big neutralizing center for the bottom of the lineup.  The following are his main attributes in my opinion: 

Size: whatever he's listed at, he looks to be much bigger out on the ice.  

Physicality: he throws more hits then fans give him credit for, and he's very strong on pucks against boards. 

Skating: him and Joshua have above average skating for their size and complement each other well. 

 

I'm a big fan of letting guys get to the age of 24 before declaring them busts or capping their potential one way or another.  Make that 26 for goalies. 

 

Nils Aman: 23 years old 

Podkolzin: 22 

Hoglander: 22 

Silovs: 22 

 

This upcoming season will be huge for the three forwards. 

[Guest]

On 7/10/2023 at 10:53 AM, JamesB said:

Pods is still waiver-exempt according to CapFriendly. Hogs is no longer waiver-exempt.

 

Even though they were drafted in the same year, Hogs was signed to his entry-level deal a year earlier (2020 vs. 2021), played in the NHL sooner (2020-21 vs. 2021-22) and was born in an earlier calendar year (Dec. 2000 instead of June 2001).

 

(Hogs has also played more NHL games but that is no longer relevant as Hogs has timed out of being waiver exempt regardless of games played.)

 

This will be Pods' last year of being waiver exempt. In fact, I think he will lose his exemption this year if he plays another 30 NHL games or so.

Very interesting...  I wouldn't be shocked if Podz spends some time in the AHL this year although Rick Tocchet did say that he saw him at the Development Camp and that Podz looked "shredded". 

[Fred65]

There's a lot of pressure on all the forwards this coming season, simply we have too many and mostly of the same skills set. Some one has to go. I'm hoping Boeser reads the tea leaves and get's into shape this summer.

 

I believe management check players during the summer and they'd all be advised to take summer prep time real seriously

Edited July 13, 2023 by Fred65

[BarnBurner]

4 hours ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Very interesting...  I wouldn't be shocked if Podz spends some time in the AHL this year although Rick Tocchet did say that he saw him at the Development Camp and that Podz looked "shredded". 

The AHL is an option, for sure. Especially for Cap. It's up to him to force his way onto the team. Here's to hoping!