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The NHL’s 10 Worst Contracts of the 2023-24 Season

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I wonder where OEL would have placed if his contract hadn't been bought out?

 

The NHL’s 10 Worst Contracts of the 2023-24 Season (msn.com)

 

10. Darnell Nurse, Edmonton Oilers

Contract Remaining: Seven years, $9.25 million AAV

It should be noted that a player’s presence on this list only means that their contract is poor and not generating a level of on-ice value in line with their salary, rather than an outright judgment on the player themselves.

Edmonton Oilers defenseman Darnell Nurse is one such case. The 28-year-old blueliner is a hulking 6-foot-4, 221-pound force on the backend who has gradually increased his offensive output with each successive season. He’s a workhorse in all situations and has generally posted improved defensive metrics over the past few campaigns.

Where his valuation becomes muddled is the discussion around whether his offensive production and play-driving are just a byproduct of playing heavy minutes with two of the NHL’s biggest superstars in Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.

It’s difficult to isolate his true value in such circumstances but it seems like the Oilers fell in love with and committed to an idealistic version of Nurse. Whether it’s by the eye test or with advanced analytics, there are few reasons to justify making him the seventh-highest-paid defender in the NHL above the likes of Roman Josi ($9.059 million), Cale Makar, and Dougie Hamilton (both with $9 million), to name a few.

Despite that enormous advantage, Nurse has never eclipsed the 43 points he tallied last season and at 28, has little runway if he’s to improve. Unfortunately, that leads to the rearguard being unfairly criticised on occasion, but that comes with the territory. There’s a world in which Nurse earns between $6 and $7 million and his contract is considered fair value, but it’s not this one.

 

9. Colton Parayko, St. Louis Blues

Contract Remaining: Seven years, $6.5 million AAV

Colton Parayko is far from the only problem on a St. Louis Blues blue line that has changed drastically since the organization’s 2019 Stanley Cup win, but his role as the team’s primary shutdown defender thrusts him into the spotlight.

He’s one of four Blues’ defensemen scheduled to count for at least $4 million this season against the cap, and one of three to earn $6.5 million (Torey Krug and Justin Faulk), coming in just outside the NHL’s top 30 earners at his position.

Parayko’s contract was a gamble from the beginning, with the Blues hoping that the then-28-year-old would not be hampered by an injury-shortened season the year prior, and that he could fill in the gap left by the departure of Alex Pietrangelo. Instead, he’s struggled in a top-pairing role beside inadequate partners and hasn’t produced enough offensively to offset his recent defensive struggles.

Parayko could likely regain his form in the short term but given that he’s entering the season as a 30-year-old, doesn’t offer much hope that he will be a positive asset for the rest of his contract’s lifeline. For reference, it takes him through the 2029-30 season where he will be 37 years old, provided he makes it that far before the Blues cut ties.

Parayko’s on-ice share of scoring chances, high-danger opportunities, and expected goals at five-on-five has been sub-50% for four consecutive seasons, demonstrating a consistent decline since the aforementioned Cup run. It’s not a coincidence that the gradual drop in performance has come since Pietrangelo left for the Vegas Golden Knights, and Parayko has assumed a greater role in the lineup.

The Blues’ failure to successfully reconstruct their blue line group has blown up in the worst way. Their five-highest paid defenseman are all over the age of 30 and will earn at least $3.275 million this season. As I said, Parayko isn’t the lone problem in St. Louis, but he’s borne the brunt of the blame given his status within the organization.

 

8. Josh Anderson, Montreal Canadiens

Contract Remaining: Four years, $5.5 million AAV

Burly forwards who rely on their speed and physicality to create offense rarely age well into their 30s, and 29-year-old winger Josh Anderson of the Montreal Canadiens looks to be the latest example in that mould.

Signed to a seven-year deal almost immediately upon being acquired from the Columbus Blue Jackets, Anderson’s tenure with the Canadiens has been a mixed bag to date. While it’s true that he’s scored at a 24-goal, 38-point pace in the regular season and potted five playoff goals during Montreal’s unexpected run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, he’s frequently penalized and has compiled a minus-42 plus/minus rating over the last three seasons.

Anderson’s on-ice share of scoring chances, high-danger chances, and expected goals at five-on-five has dipped steadily since his first season in Montreal, hitting the sub-45% mark in all three categories in 2022-23. The Canadiens have been more interested in securing a better draft position over the past two seasons so they’re not necessarily concerned about a drop in form, but that’s a disappointing return on investment nonetheless.

The Canadiens have to be hoping for more from Anderson, rebuilding or not. His cap hit puts him just outside the top 100 of all forwards for the 2023-24 season and despite his goalscoring sitting near that level, his point production put him near the 200th-ranked forward for the 2022-23 campaign.

At 29 years of age, there’s little room for improvement at this stage of his career, and health is already an issue (he missed 13 games in each of the last two seasons). This contract has the potential to drop even lower in the future.

 

7. Brendan Gallagher, Montreal Canadiens

Contract Remaining: Four years, $6.5 million AAV

Like his teammate mentioned in the previous section, 31-year-old Brendan Gallagher is in the same boat due to his play style. A feisty scoring winger in his prime, he is paying the price as he progresses further into his career.

Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Gallagher has only appeared in 128 out of the Canadiens’ 220 regular-season games (58%) and scored at an 18-goal, 42-point pace during that time. That lack of availability and diminished production coupled with the term remaining on his deal throws the veteran forward into this uncomfortable discussion, and it’s difficult to see him ever return to the level which earned him the contract in the first place.

At this rate, even staying healthy would not make Gallagher a positive asset at his current price point. The Canadiens are inching closer back to relevance with every passing season and Gallagher has admittedly been surrounded by a depleted supporting cast, but his individual chance generation has dropped off in tandem with his injury concerns.

This one hurts, but it was worth it at the time and Gallagher had played two consecutive seasons in which he appeared in all of the team’s games. Sometimes, all it takes is one setback to send the entire structure tumbling down and that appears to be the case with Gallagher, though only time will tell.

 

6. Torey Krug, St. Louis Blues

Contract Remaining: Four years, $6.5 million AAV

Going into the 2023-24 season, 32-year-old Torey Krug is tied with Parayko and Faulk for the biggest cap hit on the Blues’ blue line, and sits just outside top-pairing territory league-wide. For that kind of investment, one would like more than the 63 games and 32 points that Krug offered in 2022-23, and his term is the main reason why he doesn’t rank lower on this list.

The last time that Krug played more than 70 games in a single season was during the 2017-18 campaign, and has yet to match the 49 points he scored in his final season with the Boston Bruins.

Krug has never been a defensive stalwart by any means, but his effectiveness on that end has diminished even further in recent years. He only ranked fifth among Blues blueliners in even-strength scoring last season (18 points) and has seen his share of scoring chances and expected goals at five-on-five drop every year since joining St. Louis as a free agent.

If nothing else, it’s difficult to justify paying Krug like a first-pairing defender while not giving him anywhere near that level of usage. Among defensemen who played in at least 10 games last season, the veteran rearguard averaged the 134th-most ice time in all situations. That puts him just outside the threshold for a top-four defender, making this an even bigger indictment of his deal and it’s no wonder he’s been on the trade block.

 

5. Ben Chiarot, Detroit Red Wings

Contract Remaining: Three years, $4.75 million AAV

Steve Yzerman’s tenure as the general manager of the Detroit Red Wings has been marked by puzzling free-agent decisions, but none is more confusing than signing an already 31-year-old Ben Chiarot to a four-year deal worth nearly $5 million annually. One of the biggest benefactors of the Canadiens’ surprising run to the 2021 Stanley Cup Final, Chiarot earned a (misguided) reputation as a physical, no-nonsense shutdown defender.

If one looks past the name, one would see a blueliner who struggles to move the puck out of the zone, bleeds chances despite his aggressiveness, and owns the third-worst penalty differential in the league over the past three seasons. A player who provides very little in attack while constantly putting their team at a disadvantage is not worth $4.75 million per year, even less so for four more seasons.

Chiarot arguably hampered the development of Moritz Seider, saddling the phenom with virtually everything to do both offensively and defensively. Seider lacked the calming defensive conscience that is so crucial for young NHL defensemen, and it’s no surprise his scoring totals and defensive metrics jumped once separated from Chiarot.

Chiarot ranked last or second-last among the Red Wings’ regular defensemen in terms of his on-ice share of shots, scoring chances, high-danger chances, and goals at five-on-five. There’s no doubt that he was over-matched in a top-pairing role, but that’s a strike against Yzerman’s previously infallible judgment given the mountain of evidence which loudly decreed Chiarot as a player worthy of much more than league minimum. If this deal was longer, it would undeniably be the worst in the league.

 

4. Jonathan Huberdeau, Calgary Flames

Contract Remaining: Eight years, $10.5 million AAV

Ranking Jonathan Huberdeau‘s contract this low may be harsh and reek of recency bias, but there is no doubt that the runner-up for the 2021-22 Art Ross Trophy (115 points) had an extremely underwhelming 2022-23 season.

Inked to his current deal before ever playing a game as a member of the Calgary Flames, Huberdeau came into the season with enormous expectations. A combination of a significantly altered Flames roster, a more conservative on-ice gameplan, and issues with former head coach Darryl Sutter all factored into the playmaker’s paltry sum of 55 points in 79 games – less than half of his total from the previous season.

Toss in a contract that only kicks in this season and takes Huberdeau through his age-38 campaign and you have all the ingredients of an albatross of a contract. There’s little upside for a player already on the back-swing of his career at 30 years old, and the percentages are against a complete resurrection of Huberdeau’s production.

While it’s extremely unlikely that Huberdeau will ever replicate his performance from 2021-22, there’s still hope that he can be a top-line talent albeit not one worthy of carrying the 10th-highest cap hit in the league among all skaters. He was a point-per-game player in the three preceding seasons and even the most severe of age-related declines should not have resulted in such a precipitous drop in scoring.

Newly minted head coach Ryan Huska promises to inject some youthful exuberance into a locker room that was by most accounts, dreary and despondent at times last season. Playing to Huberdeau’s strengths will be crucial to unlocking the Flames’ offense and at over $10 million a season, there is no alternative.

 

3. Seth Jones, Chicago Blackhawks

Contract Remaining: Seven years, $9.5 million AAV

Is this ranking unfair to Seth Jones and more a reflection of the current state of the Chicago Blackhawks’ rebuild? Perhaps, but he’s as much a factor in their dysfunction as the rest of the roster. Miscast as a number one defender, Jones’ deal takes him through the 2029-30 season when he will be 36 years old and his no-move clause (NMC) all but guarantees that he will stick around until the rebuilding Blackhawks circle back into Cup contention.

Jones’ cap hit is currently tied for fourth among all NHL defensemen, with Adam Fox and Charlie McAvoy also coming in at a $9.5 million hit. Both have the benefit of being surrounded by stronger teammates but both also posted excellent relative metrics (how their team fared with them compared to without) despite playing on better teams.

Jones offers the Blackhawks value by eating up more difficult minutes while insulating his younger teammates as they develop, but he’s a net-negative in a vacuum which is what this exercise is working towards. He’s a victim of early-career hype and has yet to replicate his 2017-18 season in which he scored 16 goals and 57 points in 76 games as a 23-year-old.

There’s still hope for Jones given his age (28) and noticeable physical gifts (he stands 6-foot-4, 209 pounds) but unless he finds his way onto a team where he’s pushed down in the lineup, will remain a negative asset in his current role. Whether his future lies with a rebuilding Chicago squad or elsewhere remains to be seen.

 

2. Tyler Seguin, Dallas Stars

Contract Remaining: Four years, $9.85 million AAV

When the Dallas Stars initially signed Tyler Seguin to his current deal, the center had just come off of five straight seasons of at least 70 points, as well as scoring 40 goals in the most recent campaign (2017-18). He continued the streak with 80 points in 2018-19, but dropped to 50 in 69 games in the first COVID-shortened season (2019-20).

Since then, Seguin has only reached 50 points in a season once, and missed nearly the entire 2020-21 campaign due to hip and knee injuries sustained during the previous season. In a sport where skating mobility is king, such setbacks can spell the end for many a career, and Seguin endured a grueling rehab process to even return to play in the first place.

At only 31 years old, there is still time for Seguin to regain some of his on-ice value before his contract is up. Time is of course not on his side and his decline cannot be discussed without the context of his major lower-body injuries. Yet, he should still be able to provide reliable secondary scoring to a Dallas side growing into Stanley Cup contention and could even buck his trend of diminished production with another offseason for recovery.

When it comes to contracts in sports, there is little room for sympathy. You either produce or you don’t, and Seguin has not produced at the level of the 12th-highest-paid forward heading into the 2023-24 season. Unfortunately, that earns him a spot on this list, and may do so for the foreseeable future.

 

1. Marc-Edouard Vlasic, San Jose Sharks

Contract Remaining: Three years, $7 million AAV

At last, we arrive at Marc-Edouard Vlasic of the San Jose Sharks, with the 36-year-old defenseman earning the unfortunate title of the NHL’s worst contract for the 2023-24 season. His deal doesn’t carry the same term or AAV as some of his competitors on this list, but his significant physical decline means he’s offering very little at either end of the ice.

Notably, Vlasic’s former teammate Erik Karlsson may have led this list if not for a tremendous Norris Trophy-winning campaign and some modest salary retention by the Sharks in the trade with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

It’s a sad state of affairs for the veteran blueliner who was once considered the league’s best defensive defenseman. His disciplined defending and canny on-ice awareness positioned him as a key cog for one of the NHL’s top Stanley Cup contenders of the last decade.

Among Sharks defensemen to have played in at least 10 games in 2022-23, Vlasic ranked fifth in ATOI in all situations (17:30 minutes per game). It was a slight jump from the year before, but still the second-lowest usage of his entire career. It’s a moot point since the Sharks have not been anywhere near legitimate contention in several years, but a bottom-pair defender should not be paid as well as Vlasic (26th in cap hit) through his age-39 season.

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Nice not to have anyone on the list.   Interesting comments about as Alf would say "slo-mo" Seider.   Goes to show Detroit has more growing pains.   Yzerman recently said to his fans "lower expectations, have a ways to go yet" to his fanbase paraphrasing, and for sure they do.    Chariot is their version of Gudbranson, without the wheels and at a bad cap hit/term.   A buyout candidate when they are ready to make a move like we did with JT Miller.

 

Vlasic is kind of sad.   For a decade, like they stated, was the leagues best defensive defenseman.   Slavin in CAR is turning into that right now, was unbelievable in last years playoffs, shutting down best lines each series.   THN regularly, had Vlasic in their top 50 any position each year when they put it out, usually in the middle of the pack, which is pretty remarkable given the other D's selected before him and after.   

 

 

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9 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

I would have put OEL #5 on that list but then I read Vlasic’s summary and it was pretty much OEL but OEL was $1M more. 

I had Vlasic ahead of OEL just because he had one less year on his deal.  My gut feeling is if OEL was still on the Canucks he would have been #1 on that list...

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1 minute ago, Ghostsof1915 said:

The NHL is going to have to cap second term deals. GM's can't help themselves overpaying for young players. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it looks real bad.

Except most players on this list wasn't their second deal.

 

I think next CBA, NHL will probably try to introduce non-guaranteed contracts or lower the term limit from 8 years to 5 or 6.

 

Personally, I'd go something like

­­<25 - max 8 years term

<30 - max 6 years term

>=30 - max 4 years term

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2 hours ago, timberz21 said:

Except most players on this list wasn't their second deal.

 

I think next CBA, NHL will probably try to introduce non-guaranteed contracts or lower the term limit from 8 years to 5 or 6.

 

Personally, I'd go something like

­­<25 - max 8 years term

<30 - max 6 years term

>=30 - max 4 years term

lol good luck with non guaranteed contract or ur 5-6 year term.. guaranteed we'll have a lockout if that's what they try to push.. hockey players are already one of the lowest paid players in all of major sports around the world.. the top players in baseball football soccer basketball makes more than the top hockey players entire career in like 3-4 years and you think they'll be ok with introducing things to limit their ability to make more money? sure football doesn't have fully guaranteed contract and a lot of players don't even make it to the end of the contract.. but usually the guranteed amount is still pretty big.. and the players have the option to "restructure" their contract to get paid even more if they are one of the top players.

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12 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

lol good luck with non guaranteed contract or ur 5-6 year term.. guaranteed we'll have a lockout if that's what they try to push.. hockey players are already one of the lowest paid players in all of major sports around the world.. the top players in baseball football soccer basketball makes more than the top hockey players entire career in like 3-4 years and you think they'll be ok with introducing things to limit their ability to make more money? sure football doesn't have fully guaranteed contract and a lot of players don't even make it to the end of the contract.. but usually the guranteed amount is still pretty big.. and the players have the option to "restructure" their contract to get paid even more if they are one of the top players.

Bettman wasted a season to introduce salary cap and then wasted 1/2 season to introduce 8 years max term (7 on new deals).   He'll do it again if he thinks that's what best for the NHL and players will eventually cave.  Franchise value also skyrocketed since, so can't say it hurt them much to sacrifice one season.   In 2012/13 the NHL started negotiations with 4 years terms on new contracts.   Introducing a max term was a major win for the NHL.  Now that it's introduced, its not so far-fetch to think they'll start chipping away at these max term bit by bit.  

 

Honestly with a salary cap, guaranteed money/contracts for undeserving players just means less available money for the one that actually deserve it.  We are already seeing it through free agency where teams are much more prudent than they were 10 years ago.

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49 minutes ago, timberz21 said:

Bettman wasted a season to introduce salary cap and then wasted 1/2 season to introduce 8 years max term (7 on new deals).   He'll do it again if he thinks that's what best for the NHL and players will eventually cave.  Franchise value also skyrocketed since, so can't say it hurt them much to sacrifice one season.   In 2012/13 the NHL started negotiations with 4 years terms on new contracts.   Introducing a max term was a major win for the NHL.  Now that it's introduced, its not so far-fetch to think they'll start chipping away at these max term bit by bit.  

 

Honestly with a salary cap, guaranteed money/contracts for undeserving players just means less available money for the one that actually deserve it.  We are already seeing it through free agency where teams are much more prudent than they were 10 years ago.

sure you can have 4 year max deal.. your top players will be asking for 15%+ on the salary cap instead of their 9-12 now. you think the cap is bad now? wait till the top players asking for 12-15% of the salary cap every couple years instead of having their cap slowly deflates to 7-8% as the cap rise.. imagine EP signing a 2 year contract every 2 years for the next 8 years.. instead of having him for say 11.5x8.. you'll have him for 11.5x2 13x2 15x2 18x2 as the cap rise that'll fix teams cap problem.. players are always going to be asking for % of the salary cap when they are negotiating contracts.. even if they sign 4years deal x2.. u don't think their 2nd of the 4 year contract is going to be a massive jump in salary? it doesn't really fix anything other than create more cap problems.. each team maybe have 2-3 contracts that are bad.. so you fix 10% of a teams contract problem while creating problems for the other 90% where you'll see their cap increase every 4 years at a even bigger % of the cap than currently.. so basically the top players will make even more.. while more and more 3rd/4th liners will make league minimum.

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6 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

sure you can have 4 year max deal.. your top players will be asking for 15%+ on the salary cap instead of their 9-12 now. you think the cap is bad now? wait till the top players asking for 12-15% of the salary cap every couple years instead of having their cap slowly deflates to 7-8% as the cap rise.. imagine EP signing a 2 year contract every 2 years for the next 8 years.. instead of having him for say 11.5x8.. you'll have him for 11.5x2 13x2 15x2 18x2 as the cap rise that'll fix teams cap problem.. players are always going to be asking for % of the salary cap when they are negotiating contracts.. even if they sign 4years deal x2.. u don't think their 2nd of the 4 year contract is going to be a massive jump in salary? it doesn't really fix anything other than create more cap problems.. each team maybe have 2-3 contracts that are bad.. so you fix 10% of a teams contract problem while creating problems for the other 90% where you'll see their cap increase every 4 years at a even bigger % of the cap than currently.. so basically the top players will make even more.. while more and more 3rd/4th liners will make league minimum.

Of course players will be asking for something as well in exchange: lower escrow, higher minimum or maximum wage, etc.  But in the end there is 83.5M$ being divided by +/- 23 players X 32 teams.  That's the total available money for players, whichever way you bend the rules.  But I'd rather put 1-2M$ more in EP or QH's pocket than dragging out OEL or LE's for 2, 4, 6 years longer than it should.

 

Anyways,I never suggested 4 year deals.  I said the NHL proposed that, knowing they wouldn't get it, but still put a max term number.  My proposal was 8, 6 and 4 years depending on the player age.

 

 

 

  

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6 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

I had Vlasic ahead of OEL just because he had one less year on his deal.  My gut feeling is if OEL was still on the Canucks he would have been #1 on that list...

The thing about Pickles is that he actually had a very impressive year defensively, showing flashes of that old school brilliance.  You'd think it a bit harsh to put him at #1, until you realize he's 36 and has multiple years left.

 

Who knows, though?  Maybe he can continue to put him decent numbers and forge an excellent twilight the same way Giordano did.

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13 hours ago, timberz21 said:

Of course players will be asking for something as well in exchange: lower escrow, higher minimum or maximum wage, etc.  But in the end there is 83.5M$ being divided by +/- 23 players X 32 teams.  That's the total available money for players, whichever way you bend the rules.  But I'd rather put 1-2M$ more in EP or QH's pocket than dragging out OEL or LE's for 2, 4, 6 years longer than it should.

 

Anyways,I never suggested 4 year deals.  I said the NHL proposed that, knowing they wouldn't get it, but still put a max term number.  My proposal was 8, 6 and 4 years depending on the player age.

 

 

 

  

So discrimination based on age? So you rather pay the star players more money and let the mid players make less.. and want to be too heavy like toronto? Imagine paying each of your players say Demko Hughes pettersson miller all 1.5-2 mil more. Lol that’s already worse than overpaying 1 or 2 player by 2-3 mil each unless they straight up can’t play. Teams with no crazy top end players would probably just steam roll us since all the player just below the high ends would sign with those teams and have 4 lines and 3 pairings they can roll out vs a team with all the extra 1.5-2mil per top players and then roll out a 3rd 4th line all consisting of league minimum players. I take my chance with the balance teams. Your top 2 lines can only play so much lol. Their average players just need to not get streamrolled while their other players will completely steamroll the league minimums.

 

You rather spend 6-10mil or more extra on ur star players depending how many you have just to fix 1 or 2 player that’s maybe 2-3 mil overpaid that you can always try to dump with sweetener retention or buyout that would cost less than paying the stars extra. Don’t see how your proposal fixes anything other than star gets paid more the rest of the league gets paid less and team become less competitive because they have to utilize more of the cap on star players and less money for depth. 

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7 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

So discrimination based on age? So you rather pay the star players more money and let the mid players make less.. and want to be too heavy like toronto? Imagine paying each of your players say Demko Hughes pettersson miller all 1.5-2 mil more. Lol that’s already worse than overpaying 1 or 2 player by 2-3 mil each unless they straight up can’t play. Teams with no crazy top end players would probably just steam roll us since all the player just below the high ends would sign with those teams and have 4 lines and 3 pairings they can roll out vs a team with all the extra 1.5-2mil per top players and then roll out a 3rd 4th line all consisting of league minimum players. I take my chance with the balance teams. Your top 2 lines can only play so much lol. Their average players just need to not get streamrolled while their other players will completely steamroll the league minimums.

 

You rather spend 6-10mil or more extra on ur star players depending how many you have just to fix 1 or 2 player that’s maybe 2-3 mil overpaid that you can always try to dump with sweetener retention or buyout that would cost less than paying the stars extra. Don’t see how your proposal fixes anything other than star gets paid more the rest of the league gets paid less and team become less competitive because they have to utilize more of the cap on star players and less money for depth. 

FYI, already discrimination based on age since contracts for 35+ are treated differently, but pointless to argue with a know-it-all anyways.


All I suggested what to change the terms limits, something that already exist in the current CBA and something the NHL actually proposed during the last lockout, or non-guaranteed contract something that exists in other sports, you know… facts.  All You’ve brought to the discussion what a bunch a random, non-sense, hypothetical numbers and doomsday scenario, that is only related to the Canucks point of view.  Guess what there are 31 others teams in the NHL.  I wasn’t suggesting from a Canucks point of view but league wide.

 

So You can keep spending on your “balanced” team, your buyouts and trade pick to get rid of bad contracts, worked wonders the last 10 years for us… huh wait.

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