Derp...

Pettersson vs Glass in 2017-2018

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Great post op   We should all reference this to any fan who is upset about our selection.  

 

thank you for taking the time and energy to put this together!

 

:D

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a reason-filled post to pre-emptively temper expectations.

 

very good.

 

i'ma still freak out. much like i did friday. i'm better today. still gonna freak out by christmas though.

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Derp, great post buddy. I read your other one as well this morning. Nice to see informed people giving us good news instead of negative ranting fire JB news lol.

 

As for your post, I completely agree. I was skeptical on Glass just because his production jumped so massively in one season. It's already hard enough to try and track player development but when you see a massive spike like that you do have to start asking the question of why? Maybe he is that good, but like you said in the CHL players numbers can be very inflated due to line mates!

 

I like your view on the Allsvenskan. I've read a lot about that league and the development curve of teen agers playing in that league and how they have one of the best success rates in graduating to the NHL. Very interesting indeed. I think we picked the right guy for sure!

 

Also on another note, I love how Benning is trying to create "pairing" chemistry in his drafting and trades. IE: Dahlen and Pettersson,  Gadjovich and Palmu. Heck even Baertchi and Granlund were traded for with that in mind. I remember one GM a bit ago saying that's how you build your lines. 2 guys have great chemistry and you just find 1 more guy to ride the bus with them (so to speak).

 

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SEL vs WHL, men vs boys.  We'll see how they do, if Pettersson puts up some good numbers we should be very excited

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People will panic and attack Benning every time Glass scores, reactionary nature of these boards.

 

I know he is going back to the SHL this year and I know that is probably the best thing for him but would have loved to put a line of Dahlen, Petterson and Virtanen together in Utica for the year.  Let them figure the North American style and ice out together and help bring up Virts numbers and confidence.  Could look at essentially graduating the whole line in a year or two if works out well together.  

 

Kid probably needs a few more pounds before coming to North America, just hope he doesn't use the Brent Sopel/Virtanen method of weight gain and takes his time to build muscle correctly.  Quality muscle takes time and in his position and style power to weight ratio is more important than weight.  With his game he needs to be shifty and able to stop, turn and accelerate quickly more than he needs to be able to power through opponents.

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3 hours ago, Derp... said:

I know there are a lot of people who would have rather had Glass than Pettersson and I think that number is going to grow before Christmas next year. There is a very real possibility that Glass will score a ton of points next year in the WHL playing with Kieffer Bellows. So much so that he could be the most productive player in the WHL similar to Sam Steel this past season.

While this is happening Pettersson will be playing in Vaxjo against bigger, faster, stronger players that will take time for him to adjust too. He will probably have a transition period where he isn't scoring a ton, and is playing second or third line minutes in the SHL.

By christmas Pettersson might be around a half point per game in the SHL, while Glass is around 2 points per game in the WHL. That is going to be a tough pill to swallow for a lot of fans, and rightfully so. Elite scoring centres don't come along every day in the CHL.

What should we take away from the early season then?

The jump that Pettersson is going to make is nearly equivalent to going to the AHL for a North American player at 18-19. He will be learning how to defend and create against players that have many of the small details of the game figured out. This experience is going to be huge for him when he comes over to the AHL/NHL. Personally I think Pettersson has a skill set that is somewhat like a combination of Daniel and Henrik Sedin. He projects to be about the same size as them: 6'2 185-190, and thinks the game at an elite level. While he is learning how to play the pro game and Glass and the Winterhawks are picking on young players and goalies in the WHL we should not just focus on the points.

What is Glass most likely to become?

Looking into comparable seasons, only 4 players with similar numbers and size to Glass have become first line players in the NHL. 4/20 That is a 20% chance of getting a first line Centre, and a 45% 9/20 of him becoming a second line centre. I realize there is totally the chance that he becomes the player everyone expects he could be like, but in reality there is no guarantee with any prospect. I actually think there is a very good chance that Suzuki will pass him with Vegas and become their first line Centre of the future as 36% 10/28 of his comparables became first line players.

What is Pettersson most likely to become?

Short answer is we will have a much better idea by the end of next season. But some things to consider are players in their draft year that scored at a similar rate in the Allsvenskan. I don't factor in the 98 birthday for Pettersson since he is so undersized anyways. Normally I see the extra year of time is for players to fill out, and dominate physically, but that isn't the case for him. So let's get to it:

Top u18 and u19 (late birthday same draft year) seasons in the Allsvenskan:

 

Elias Pettersson 19G 22A 41 Points in 43 games 0.95 pts per game (2.0 pts per game in the playoffs!!)
William Nylander 15G 12A 27 Points in 35 games 0.77 pts per game (played for 2 teams)

Alexander Wennberg 14G 18A 32 Points in 46 games 0.70 pts per game (late birthday)

David Pastrnak 8 G 16 A 24 Points in 36 games 0.67 pts per game

Jesper Boqvist 3G 9A 12 Points in 19 games 0.63 pts per game

Lucas Wallmark 5G 5A 10 Points in 16 games 0.63 pts per game

Jonathan Dahlen 15G 14A 29 Points in 51 games 0.57 pts per game

Mikhail Zhukov 9G 14A 23 Points in 41 games 0.56 pts per game

Robin Kovacs 17G 11A 28 Points in 52 games 0.54 pts per game

Par Backer 12G 10A 22 Points in 46 games 0.48 pts per game

Filip Forsberg 8G 9A 17 Points in 43 games 0.40 pts per game
Magnus Hedlund 6G 11A 17 Points in 44 games 0.39 pts per game

Elias Pettersson (D-1) 3G 6A 9 Points in 25 games 0.36 pts per game

Jesper Bratt 8G 9A 17 Points in 48 games 0.35 pts per game

Andre Burakovsky 4G 7A 11 Points in 43 games 0.26 pts per game  


What does this mean for NHL Success?

Wennberg is most direct comparison, as both of them were late birthdays in their draft years. In his D+1 season Wennberg put up 21 points in 50 SHL games. Now he is a 60 points player in the NHL.

Nylander had 20 points in 21 games in the SHL for his D+1 and is now also a 60 NHL point player.
Pastrnak had 28 points in 25 games of AHL action in his D+1 and is now a 70 point player in the NHL.
Forsberg had 33 points in 38 games of Allsvenskan action 0.87 points per game (august birthday makes that season closer to Pettersson) in his D+1 and is now a 60 point player in the NHL.

Burakovsky went on to score 1.53 points per game in the OHL in his D+1 year after scoring 0.26 points per game in the Allsvenskan. Think about that for a sec. He's only a 35 point player in the NHL now, yet scored a massive amount in 2014 with Erie playing with McDavid, Connor Brown, Brendan Gaunce, Dylan Strome, and Dane Fox. Elite CHL teams inflate production, and there is much more parody in the SHL and Allsvenskan.

Pastrnak and Nylander are playing at 181 and 190 pounds respectively too.

 

Takeaways if you don't feel like reading the whole thing

 

Glass is going to score a lot next year, but don't over value CHL scoring. It's good to have a great team in the CHL, but it's just as good to be taking the next step and challenging yourself to compete against better competition. By the end of next year Pettersson will probably be closer to NHL ready than Glass in my opinion, but especially if he can put on about 15 pounds by next July. Pettersson might not score a lot in the SHL next year, but that doesn't mean he won't be a first line centre. He's already ahead of almost everyone who has ever been drafted out of the Allsvenskan, and I wouldn't put it past him to have a terrific second half in Sweden and then come over and play a few games in the AHL at the end of the year on a tryout basis.

Glass has some good first line comparables to live up to, but Pettersson is already better than some of his first line comparables in their draft years. 
 

2017-2018 will be an exciting season for prospect fans to follow, and I hope everyone can go into it looking forward to seeing our players develop.

 

Nice job. My concern would be weighting the comparison of age versus other players and assuming that tells the tale. SO many variables come nto play and that is why hitting draft home runs is so difficult. Physical and mental development do not always mesh. The environment players develop in impacts how well they do. It appears that Linden and Benning put a lot of weight on their interviews with the players. The idea that Pettersson was brought to Van for talks and a meeting with the Twins is a big deal IMHO. 

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I initially wanted Glass.

 

Then heard that Villardi takes draws on the other side as Bo, so I wanted him.

 

Then I listened to the Canucks Army podcast and got supper excited about Pettersson. 

 

Happy with the pick.

 

JB had horseshoes up his butt to get Lind where he did. Hopefully he is this years Gaudette.

 

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Great analysis, something I can actually comprehend and understand compared to the other advanced statistics out there.

 

I wanted Glass originally but mainly because he was a safe pick.  I didn't feel his offensive ceiling was going to be very high, but now looking at it, Elias brings a more diverse set of skills to the team that we don't have at center.  I have faith he will do great for us.

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Excellent post Derp,  just curious who you're 4 compatibles were for Glass.   I have to admit that i was on the Glass train as well.  Getting more excited about this pick though. 

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44 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

nice job @Derp...

 

this is very much like the Virtanen-Nylander debate but in reverse for those being being negative on this pick. EP is going to, and currently does, have all the benefits that Nylander had in his development but it appears EP is actually doing significantly better at this stage in his development. @SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME had an interesting breakdown of some analytics on his that were pretty impressive and you can see why we likely wouldn't have had a chance at drafting Pettersson at 5 if he was 10 lbs heavier. 

 

I really don't understand why the ones complaining, and I actually think its very few and a couple of goofballs on 1040, aren't jumping for joy on this draft. We got our "Nylander" and some serious grit in Godjovich, and Lind fell in our lap. How could you not be thrilled with that?

I am stoked about Peterson but we also have to remember that he has an early birthday so he is older than most people on that scoring list. If he can score 0.5+ ppg and improve his two way play, I will be thrilled. The SHL is a tougher league than people think especially for teenagers.

 

Ideally we want him at a mid table club. If the team sucks, then you are looking at a relegation battle and coaches are tempted to play veterans. Same if it's a top of the table team. A mid table coach who has no pressure to play certain players is the ideal situation for a teenager adjusting to a significant jump in competition.

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3 minutes ago, Toews said:

I am stoked about Peterson but we also have to remember that he has an early birthday so he is older than most people on that scoring list. If he can score 0.5+ ppg and improve his two way play, I will be thrilled. The SHL is a tougher league than people think especially for teenagers.

 

Ideally we want him at a mid table club. If the team sucks, then you are looking at a relegation battle and coaches are tempted to play veterans. Same if it's a top of the table team. A mid table coach who has no pressure to play certain players is the ideal situation for a teenager adjusting to a significant jump in competition.

That would be nice. I don't know much about the SHL or what kind of team the "Lakers" will be next season but given the season EP had I would suspect he'll be given some chances. Is Dahlen jumping up to the SHL as well or is he staying in the tier 2 league?

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13 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

That would be nice. I don't know much about the SHL or what kind of team the "Lakers" will be next season but given the season EP had I would suspect he'll be given some chances. Is Dahlen jumping up to the SHL as well or is he staying in the tier 2 league?

I have yet to look into what their contracts look like for next season and beyond, out clauses etc so no idea where they will be next season. It will be nice if they can stick together wherever they go. 

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35 minutes ago, S'all Good Man said:

That would be nice. I don't know much about the SHL or what kind of team the "Lakers" will be next season but given the season EP had I would suspect he'll be given some chances. Is Dahlen jumping up to the SHL as well or is he staying in the tier 2 league?

Didn't dahlen sign a contract with us? 

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23 minutes ago, 73 Percent said:

Didn't dahlen sign a contract with us? 

I don't think he's on his ELC yet. Still our property though. It be nice if him and EP could graduate up to the SHL together and keep that chemistry going. 

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1 minute ago, Camel Toe Drag said:

I don't think he's on his ELC yet. Still our property though. It be nice if him and EP could graduate up to the SHL together and keep that chemistry going. 

Let me rephrase that lol. He's signed his elc with us in April. He's likely to play with the canucks or comets. However he does have an ahl out clause if he wishes to use it. 

 

It's pointless trying to guess where he's going to play now. He could be in any of the 4 leagues.

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Just now, 73 Percent said:

Let me rephrase that lol. He's signed his elc with us in April. He's likely to play with the canucks or comets. However he does have an ahl out clause if he wishes to use it. 

 

It's pointless trying to guess where he's going to play now. He could be in any of the 4 leagues.

:rolleyes:

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