Re-Signing RFAs and UFAs

[oldnews]

3 hours ago, Rush17 said:

I wish Jake was further along so we could ink him to term like a 6 year deal.  Maybe a 2-3 year bridge and then decide.  Hopefully he takes a pay cut to be here at home when he gets amazing. 

 

The orgs put a lot of work into him. Hope he realizes how fortunate he has been. I think he has. He's a pretty bright and appreciative kid.

Not sure why you'd want to forego the bridge to sign a 21 yr old long term.  Ideally you get that bridge and then the term, so you don't have a pwf like him hitting free agency around age 27, right in his prime.  That's what Buffalo faced in Kane. 

I like the timeline on Virtanen - I think it serves the team better that he's starting to emerge and will be proving himself in his RFA contract - the team could get a bargain year (or two) at the end of that contract - and then be in position to buy some more of his free agent years.  You'll also have more to go on to assess market value whereas young guys that break out with a big season or two can be larger risks to sign long term - they don't always sustain those breakout years.

[VegasCanuck]

3 hours ago, theo5789 said:

My prediction if they all re-sign:

Baertschi: 3.5

Granlund: 1.75

Pouliot: 1.25

Stetcher: 2.25

Virtanen: 2.5 on a bridge, 3.25 for slightly longer term

 

 

Baertschi: 2.5 Bridge - lots of injured time this year hurt his leverage

Granlund: 1.25, again, bridge, lots of injured time

Pouliot: 1.25 sounds about right as a bridge

Stecher: 1.85 one year bridge, his numbers were a little low this year, not going to do another Hutton

Virtanen: 1.75, one to two year bridge, allow him to show he can make the progress translate to a fresh season.

 

Will be surprised if any of these guys are more than bridge deals, they will give them an opportunity next year to show that they deserve longer term and bigger.

[stawns]

4 hours ago, Rush17 said:

Posted this in the other topic too.

 

 

 

Good chance we see Baer, Granlund and possibly Pouliot in arbitration.  Injuries due to Baer and Granny reduces sample size and I'm sure they wanna be paid.  Pouliot.  Probably feels he can contribute more next season and may seek a tad more then he's worth. 

 

Hutton was way up at 2.8 mill. Pouliot probably wants around 2-2.5 mill.  Arbitration might get him closer to 2.  Jake and Stecher being local guys and a big part of the future.

 

I suspect take what is given to them and try to get more down the line when we are a better team. Both feeling their contributions iwll be more noticed down the road.

 

Avoiding arbitration makes the team happy so long term players wanna save that card for later if they wish to use it.

Granlund was used in an almost exclusive shutdown role with Sutter and was very very effective.  You can't judge his year by points.  Pouliot, though working through issues defensively showed flashes of absolute brilliance offensvely..........you can teach defence, but not what he brings offensively.

[coastal.view]

i like virt at 4 years and $9 million

1.5, 2, 2.5, 3

give him a solid length of time to fully develop without contract distractions

the team shows a lot of good will and faith in him by giving him life time financial security (he'll have earned over 10 million from hockey)

and if he does develop as all hope and expect

he'll be well positioned to sign a much better deal when this one expires

 

from the canucks point of view he remains tradeable

the 1/3 buy out is kind of attractive if jake craters

and he is not so heavily paid that the minors are not an option

 

[riffraff]

2 hours ago, stawns said:

Granlund was used in an almost exclusive shutdown role with Sutter and was very very effective.  You can't judge his year by points.  Pouliot, though working through issues defensively showed flashes of absolute brilliance offensvely..........you can teach defence, but not what he brings offensively.

Unless you're Jordan subban

[theo5789]

4 hours ago, VegasCanuck said:

Baertschi: 2.5 Bridge - lots of injured time this year hurt his leverage

Granlund: 1.25, again, bridge, lots of injured time

Pouliot: 1.25 sounds about right as a bridge

Stecher: 1.85 one year bridge, his numbers were a little low this year, not going to do another Hutton

Virtanen: 1.75, one to two year bridge, allow him to show he can make the progress translate to a fresh season.

 

Will be surprised if any of these guys are more than bridge deals, they will give them an opportunity next year to show that they deserve longer term and bigger.

I think Baertschi will be looking for a 3-5 year deal. His current contract was his bridge deal and he has progressed his PPG every year here and improved his defensive game. I would not be upset with a 4 year 3.5 million dollar deal for a guy that looks to still have more room to grow offensively. The team will know better of his injury status and will decide accordingly.

 

I would say the same about Granlund in that he is just finishing up his bridge deal, but perhaps he would like to show a bit more after having one good season and this current not so great one. He has shown he has some offensive upside though and this season he has looked like he can handle a shutdown role as well. I actually wouldn't mind signing him longer term if he's willing to take 1.75 a year because that could end up being a big bargain much like Jarnkrok is for Nashville.

 

I agree Pouliot needs more time to see what we have in him, so a short term bridge is fine.

 

Stetcher has played well despite his point totals. He battles hard every night and I think he's a bottom pairing guy that can slide into a higher role of called upon. I could see him signing short term for about 1.85, but 2.25 for a slightly longer deal (3-4 years).

 

It is probably best for Virtanen to sign a short bridge because it looks like he's starting to put it together in the NHL. That could be a bigger payout in a year or two. I rather give him a bit more and sign him for longer and hope he breaks out sooner than later. Being a local guy with his attributes, the intention is probably to have him stick around long term anyway.

[JeremyCuddles]

5 hours ago, zduck14 said:

I'm just curious why the majority of people here think Stecher will get so much more on his deal than Pouliot. Both players just turned 24 and have almost identical career stats (35 points and 36 points) in almost the exact same number of games. On top of that, Stecher seemed to take a step backward this year in his development while Pouliot doubled Stecher's offensive output (22 points to just 11 for Stecher) and was tied for 2nd among the teams defensemen in just 71 games.  

 

I understand that Pouliot's defensive game needs work but Stecher isn't exactly a defensive minded player himself and isn't that much better than Pouliot in their own end.

 

That said, my predictions are Beartschi - 3.5, Granlund - 1.75, Virtanen - 1.8, Pouliot - 1.9, Stecher - 1.9

Management (Linden specifically) mentioned Stecher alongside guys like Tanev, Sutter and Edler as a key member of the next leadership group. Clearly management values him for a lot more than just points. Stecher is tenacious, hard working, and leads by example.

[JamesB]

6 hours ago, zduck14 said:

I'm just curious why the majority of people here think Stecher will get so much more on his deal than Pouliot. Both players just turned 24 and have almost identical career stats (35 points and 36 points) in almost the exact same number of games. On top of that, Stecher seemed to take a step backward this year in his development while Pouliot doubled Stecher's offensive output (22 points to just 11 for Stecher) and was tied for 2nd among the teams defensemen in just 71 games.  

 

I understand that Pouliot's defensive game needs work but Stecher isn't exactly a defensive minded player himself and isn't that much better than Pouliot in their own end.

 

That said, my predictions are Beartschi - 3.5, Granlund - 1.75, Virtanen - 1.8, Pouliot - 1.9, Stecher - 1.9

 

5 hours ago, RetroCanuck said:

WOW people are really low balling Stetcher! Guy has been thrust into the top of our D group for the past two years and has performed amazingly well considering. In my mind if we can lock him up at $4M for 6 years he will be a steal for us in the future.

These two posts exhibit sharply different views about Stecher, but both posts make interesting points. Here is my response.

 

1. Stecher and Pouliot have similar career scoring numbers, and Pouliot scored more this year. So why do most people (including me) think Stecher deserves a lot more (maybe even twice as much).

 

The answer is that Stecher is much better defensively. And for a D-man, while offense matters, defense is more important. It is hard to measure defensive play, largely because various metrics are heavily dependent on quality of competition. That is the reason that usually, on bad teams, the best D-men have worse +/- numbers than 3rd pairing guys. It is because the top D's are playing against the other teams' top forwards and those are the guys who do most of the scoring, while the forwards playing in front of the D's on a bad team score a lot less. 

 

So, when a guy like Pouliot, who played very soft minutes, has the worst +/- on the team, that is a big negative. Pouliot had a +/- of -22, while Stecher was -7 in tougher minutes.

 

It is, however, very hard to quantify quality of competition. Existing standard measures are almost completely useless. Actually, "almost" is not quite right. They are often downright misleading. For a pretty good explanation see http://www.beerleagueheroes.com/hockey-desperately-needs-better-competition-metric-part-2-2/.

 

But there are some indicators of how good a D-man is defensively, at least in the eyes of the coach. On indicator is PK time played per game played. On the Canucks, Tanev is the leader at 3:04, followed by Edler at 2:40, as we would expect. Stecher is at a respectable 1:32., and Pouliot is at a nearly non-existent 0:13 (thirteen seconds a game). Similarly Pouliot's d-zone start % is 42.9 compared to Stecher's 51.5. And Stecher obviously played a lot more shutdown minutes than Pouliot. Bottom line: the coaches thought that Stecher was much, much better defensively.  Also, Stecher is more physical --making a lot more hits than Pouliot. That counts for something even though Stecher is small.

 

So that explains why Stecher is worth quite a bit more than Pouliot.

 

2. So why isn't Stecher worth 4 million a year for 6 years?

 

That kind of contract is suitable for a top-4 D. Stecher was a top-4 D in the later part of this year. But the Canucks were not a good team. It is far from clear that Stecher is good enough to be a top 4 D on a good team. He does not score enough to be viewed as an offensive D-man. He is not big enough for his physical game to be a major factor, he is not a PMD and, while he makes a pretty good first pass, he is not in the same league as Tanev, He does not appear to be a likely PP QB and, while he played more on the PK than Pouliot, he was only 5th on the team, showing that he is not regarded as a primary PK guy either. (On the PK it is helpful to have guys with a long reach to cut down the passing lanes).

 

The team can be confident that, at a minimum, Stecher can be a good third pairing guy on good team. But those guys don't get 4 million a year, at least not as RFAs.

 

I think the reasonable range is 2 to 3 and I have him at 2.5. I think that anything more than 3 would be an overpayment, even for a fairly long term.

 

 

 

 

[Provost]

Stecher is the wildcard.  He has been pretty consistently decent vs. Pouliot who was excellent for stretches and terrible for stretches.

I suspect they reward the consistency a lot more than the higher end potential of Pouliot.  On the other hand, they got burned badly by giving Hutton a big raise and finding out he not only didn't improve but regressed... they could be gun shy of repeating that and may not offer Stecher a similar deal.

In my mind he is worth $2.5 a year for three years to get his resume in order and to find out if he is a top 4 or if he is a ladder guy who belongs lower down but can play higher up in the line up for short periods in an emergency.

[ButterBean]

6 hours ago, RetroCanuck said:

WOW people are really low balling Stetcher! Guy has been thrust into the top of our D group for the past two years and has performed amazingly well considering. In my mind if we can lock him up at $4M for 6 years he will be a steal for us in the future.

No way we throw that much money and term at him. He hasn’t shown enough potential to earn that.

[AlwaysACanuckFan]

10 hours ago, Rush17 said:

Dowd probably gets a 2 way contract or PTO.  He will be a big factor for competition in camp for C.  Wouldn't be at all surprised if he signs a 1 or 2 way deal then is picked up off waivers.

I Dowd it ;).

[spook007]

Not sure what salary rises will be, but I expect it to be short term or max 3 year contracts...

With all the youth coming through, I don't think we will be wanting anchors for players that doesn't continue their development.

People here were complaining about Hansens 2.5 mill and Higgins 2.5mill, and those were seasoned campaigners.

 

Baertschi 2.5-3 / 2-3 year, decent top 6 production

Granlund 2 / 2-3 year, Good defensive player. Remains to be seen if he can up his scoring without being on the Sedins line.

Virtanen 2 / 2 year, expect a show us you can continue to improve, and we'll shower you in gold, contact.

Stetcher  2-3 /2 years, another show us contract. 

Poliot 1.5-2 / 2 years, improve your D, or you'll be history...several D-men starting to make a push for bottom pairings.

 

[JamesB]

34 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Not sure what salary rises will be, but I expect it to be short term or max 3 year contracts...

With all the youth coming through, I don't think we will be wanting anchors for players that doesn't continue their development.

People here were complaining about Hansens 2.5 mill and Higgins 2.5mill, and those were seasoned campaigners.

 

Baertschi 2.5-3 / 2-3 year, decent top 6 production

Granlund 2 / 2-3 year, Good defensive player. Remains to be seen if he can up his scoring without being on the Sedins line.

Virtanen 2 / 2 year, expect a show us you can continue to improve, and we'll shower you in gold, contact.

Stetcher  2-3 /2 years, another show us contract. 

Poliot 1.5-2 / 2 years, improve your D, or you'll be history...several D-men starting to make a push for bottom pairings.

 

Reasonable numbers.

 

I am glad someone mentioned the role the Sedins played in Granlund's 19 goal performance in 2016-17. His  numbers were 19 goals and 13 assists for 32 points in 69 games. And his +/- was -19. Also, 7 of his pts were on the PP.

 

A lot of people on CDC were really enthusiastic about the 19 goals. But his overall numbers were not good. 25  points in 69 games at 5-on-5 is not that impressive when you are playing with the Sedins and getting a lot of o-zone starts. The Sedins were both acting like playmakers. So playing with the Sedins boosted Granlund's goal total and overall point total but did not generate a lot of assists, and it hurt his +/-. If we remove the Sedin effect, his performance would probably be only so-so bottom 6.

 

This year, the shutdown line of Sutter, Granlund and Dorsett was very good to start the season --until Dorsett got injured. But I think Granlund was very much the 3rd guy on that unit. Sutter is a good shutdown center and Dorsett, as he indicated, was playing the best hockey of his career. Granlund was pretty good defensively when he focused on shutdown. But there is not much indication so far that he can score at a decent level AND play good defence at the same time.

 

Hi might turn out be a useful player on a good team, but I don't think he has shown it yet. So I think he is due for only a modest raise. I think 2 million is okay but I have him a bit lower at 1.5

 

 

 

 

[spook007]

1 hour ago, JamesB said:

Reasonable numbers.

 

I am glad someone mentioned the role the Sedins played in Granlund's 19 goal performance in 2016-17. His  numbers were 19 goals and 13 assists for 32 points in 69 games. And his +/- was -19. Also, 7 of his pts were on the PP.

 

A lot of people on CDC were really enthusiastic about the 19 goals. But his overall numbers were not good. 25  points in 69 games at 5-on-5 is not that impressive when you are playing with the Sedins and getting a lot of o-zone starts. The Sedins were both acting like playmakers. So playing with the Sedins boosted Granlund's goal total and overall point total but did not generate a lot of assists, and it hurt his +/-. If we remove the Sedin effect, his performance would probably be only so-so bottom 6.

 

This year, the shutdown line of Sutter, Granlund and Dorsett was very good to start the season --until Dorsett got injured. But I think Granlund was very much the 3rd guy on that unit. Sutter is a good shutdown center and Dorsett, as he indicated, was playing the best hockey of his career. Granlund was pretty good defensively when he focused on shutdown. But there is not much indication so far that he can score at a decent level AND play good defence at the same time.

 

Hi might turn out be a useful player on a good team, but I don't think he has shown it yet. So I think he is due for only a modest raise. I think 2 million is okay but I have him a bit lower at 1.5

 

 

 

 

I think management will be very wary of high raises and term to any player just now. With the influx of new talent they don't want to tie them selves in too hard to any player not named Brock or Horvat.

Sutter, Guddy, Edler, Tanev are all on short term and only Eriksson is on a hang man contract.

I truly believe we will be seeing a lot changes over the next few years, so for a lot of players, new or old, its either step up or ship out...

[mll]

.

[shiznak]

Assuming we don't trade any of these players.

 

Bärtschi - 3.2M per year (3-4)

Granlund - 1.2M per year (1-2)

Stetcher - 2.8M per year (2-4)

Pouliot - 1.4M per year (1-2)

Virtanen - 1.2M per year (1-2)

 

[alfstonker]

11 hours ago, coastal.view said:

i like virt at 4 years and $9 million

1.5, 2, 2.5, 3

give him a solid length of time to fully develop without contract distractions

the team shows a lot of good will and faith in him by giving him life time financial security (he'll have earned over 10 million from hockey)

and if he does develop as all hope and expect

he'll be well positioned to sign a much better deal when this one expires

 

from the canucks point of view he remains tradeable

the 1/3 buy out is kind of attractive if jake craters

and he is not so heavily paid that the minors are not an option

 

I actually think Jake is a guy you need to keep hungry at this stage in his career. He is at a point where he could totally stall, slightly improve in increments or totally take off. Because he imo is not the type of player you want thinking he has arrived, I wouldn't make him too comfortable until I knew what we definitely had and that he has weathered his immaturity.

 

I would give him a bridge 2x1.5 and see how he does. If he takes off in these 2 years we know what we have and hopefully he will also have matured enough to be given a decent contract.

 

I don't know much about the Seattle expansion but I would assume Jimbo is building a picture of who he DOESN'T want to lose.

[spook007]

1 hour ago, alfstonker said:

I actually think Jake is a guy you need to keep hungry at this stage in his career. He is at a point where he could totally stall, slightly improve in increments or totally take off. Because he imo is not the type of player you want thinking he has arrived, I wouldn't make him too comfortable until I knew what we definitely had and that he has weathered his immaturity.

 

I would give him a bridge 2x1.5 and see how he does. If he takes off in these 2 years we know what we have and hopefully he will also have matured enough to be given a decent contract.

 

I don't know much about the Seattle expansion but I would assume Jimbo is building a picture of who he DOESN'T want to lose.

Fully expect Jake to be part of our future, but totally agree... Carrot in front of the donkey. Don't want him to start rest on his laurels.... The potential in Jake is huge, and it is just now we are starting to scratch the surface. Size and speed, size and speed... something we are not over run by.....

[SingleThorn]

18 hours ago, theo5789 said:

My prediction if they all re-sign:

Baertschi: 3.5

Granlund: 1.75

Pouliot: 1.25

Stetcher: 2.25

Virtanen: 2.5 on a bridge, 3.25 for slightly longer term

 

 

 

17 hours ago, IBatch said:

The way I see if they all deserve modest raises, say 150% of their current earnings, but they will all likely close to double it x 2 years.  

 

With the exception of maybe Jake and maybe Stetcher, none of them really need to be part of the next core (and that's a maybe), but any of them could earn that over the next two or three years depending on the bridge.  JV was the only one who showed marked improvement as the season went on, closing out in a tear.  Hopefully that was signs of things to come, and he will become what we all hoped.  Of the remaining guys my money is on Pouilet to figure things out and become a player of some value.

 

15 hours ago, ChuckNORRIS4Cup said:

 

Stetcher is one of the hardest working D on this team imo, if there was 1 guy deserving of a raise it is this kid, he obviously has things to work on in his game but the effort this guy gives you game in and game out he definitely deserves the raise, I'd say around $1.2-1.5M.

 

As for lengths of contracts I really don't know for these guys, Baer as mentioned due to this injury long term is way to risky either 1 or 2 year max. Granlund the same 1 or 2 year max, Pouliot 1 year max if he is still here, Stetcher is one I could see maybe a 2-3 year contract, now that leaves me with Virtanen.

. 

 

 

 

14 hours ago, RetroCanuck said:

WOW people are really low balling Stetcher! Guy has been thrust into the top of our D group for the past two years and has performed amazingly well considering. In my mind if we can lock him up at $4M for 6 years he will be a steal for us in the future.

 

6 hours ago, spook007 said:

 

Baertschi 2.5-3 / 2-3 year, decent top 6 production

Granlund 2 / 2-3 year, Good defensive player. Remains to be seen if he can up his scoring without being on the Sedins line.

Virtanen 2 / 2 year, expect a show us you can continue to improve, and we'll shower you in gold, contact.

Stetcher  2-3 /2 years, another show us contract. 

Poliot 1.5-2 / 2 years, improve your D, or you'll be history...several D-men starting to make a push for bottom pairings.

 

 

3 hours ago, shiznak said:

Assuming we don't trade any of these players.

 

Bärtschi - 3.2M per year (3-4)

Granlund - 1.2M per year (1-2)

Stetcher - 2.8M per year (2-4)

Pouliot - 1.4M per year (1-2)

Virtanen - 1.2M per year (1-2)

 

ffs.......it's Stecher. He's been here two years now. It's not that hard to spell !

[Russ]

18 hours ago, JamesB said:

Time to start thinking about RFAs. The five RFAs who are coming up (in alphabetical order) are Baertschi, Granlund, Pouliot, Stecher, and Virtanen. Benning has said he plans to qualify and sign all of them. And the Canucks have quite a bit of cap room. The question is how much will it cost. Here are this year's cap hits (in millions):

 

Baertschi: 1.85

Granlund: 0.90

Pouliot: 0.80

Stecher: 0.92

Virtanen: 0.89

 

Total: 5.36

 

None of these guys are in a great bargaining position and they all still have a lot to prove. Here is my read, but I admit there is a lot of uncertainty.

 

Baertschi; For the past two years he has performed at a legitimate 2nd line level (barely) in terms of scoring, and he has speed. And he actually played on the Canuck first line this year (which indicates the lack of front-line players on the team). He has become defensively responsible but still won't be playing shutdown or PK any time soon. He does not contribute to the physical game. And he has had injury problems that make his situation far from solid. Still, in terms of performance, he is the best guy in the group and I think he deserves a small raise. I see his cap hit going to probably about 2.5 million.

 

Granlund: Had a disappointing season (12 pts in 53 games, not even a legitimate 4th line level or shutdown level). Then he had a season-ending injury. His stock has fallen a lot. Still, based on the previous season and on hoped-for potential, he deserves a raise. I see him going to 1.5 million 

 

Pouliot: He played regularly but, in my view, did not live up to expectations. On a good team he probably would have been 7th man. He has potential but is inconsistent, He did get 22 points, but his plus/minus of -22 despite relatively easy minutes is scary. And he does not contribute to the physical game. I could see Juolevi taking his spot next year. (or Dahlin ). Still, he was a regular this year and, with normal progression, probably goes to 1.5 million.

 

Stecher: He had no history with Green and had to prove himself all over again this year. But his minutes went up over the season and, by the end, he was doing a good job playing on the first pairing with Edler. He deserves a significant raise. I could see him going to 2.5 million, maybe more.

 

Virtanen: CDC has been doing cartwheels over Virtanen because he made quite a lot of progress this year, as if that justifies his original selection at #6 overall. But he still needs to continue his progression. He had 20 points (including 10 goals) in 75 games this year. That is a good 4th line level and kind of marginal 3rd line level (or at least close). His defence improved a lot and, of course, he contributes to the speed game and the physical game. Also he was a lot better at the end of the season than at the beginning and was a consistent high energy presence over the last two months of the season. And his attitude seems to have improved a lot. That all helps him. I see him going to 2 million, maybe a bit more.

 

Benning, quite reasonably, does not like 1 year deals for RFAs but, these guys all still have a lot of questions marks. So I would expect 2 year deals for all ot them, although I could see 3-year deals for Virtanen and Stecher.

 

I project Stecher (or maybe Baertschi) to be the highest paid and I project a total of maybe a little over 10 million.

 

As for UFAs, I think the Canucks will re-sign Archie (they should) and that is all.

 

 

 

 

 

I think you are pretty bang on with cost except Baertschi, I think he will be around 3-3.25. 

 

As for Virtanen, it looked last year and beginning of this year that this guy might not be able to crack it on a regular basis.  He came a long ways this year outside of scoring and seemed to be slowly figuring it out throughout the year, he was even played in shutdown roles from time to time to prove he can play D.  Will he ever live up a regular #6 pick?  Doubt it, but whatever every GM has good and bad picks even at top picks, you also never know how they will adapt to the NHL at young ages. But there was optimism that he may be figuring things out.

 

I just hope Baer, Granlund and Pouliot all get 1 year contracts and get dumped at the deadline.

 

Hope they give Archie a 2 year deal, he played well in his role and we have no one else right now in the organization who plays that role.