RonMexico Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 (edited) 48 minutes ago, nuckin_futz said: Agree and disagree. There has been a massive improvement in treatments and therapeutics which have brought Covid mortality rates way down from March and April. You don't see Covid ripping through nursing homes the way it did in the spring. However, if case counts are increasing exponentially then it is reasonable to assume deaths will also rise albeit at a lower pace given the better treatments. The one big caveat is hospitals being over run. Already seeing this in a few isolated places in the states. Likely going to be a brutal winter. To further that, the higher the case load go without a significant increase in deaths, it lowers the overall mortality rate which is a key measuring point. Rate of ICU admission and mortality rate being low are likely why we are currently not seeing the economic shutdown that we experienced earlier this year. Many assume that the more than have it, the higher the chances of death or grave illness which is not true based on these rates. It kinda sucks that our government appears to be letting the virus run amok and putting the onus on the population to be smarter about their lifestyle choices during a pandemic, but until the system shows signs of being over-burdened, it's gunna be more of the same rhetoric. Edited October 27, 2020 by RonMexico Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canuck Surfer Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 5 minutes ago, RonMexico said: To further that, the higher the case load go without a significant increase in deaths, it lowers the overall mortality rate which is a key measuring point. Rate of ICU admission and mortality rate being low are likely why we are currently not seeing the economic shutdown that we experienced earlier this year. Many assume that the more than have it, the higher the chances of death or grave illness which is not true based on these rates. Some, not me BTW, believe that the disease needs to spread. Related death a circumstance you can blame on the virus, the Chinese. See Donald Trump. Damage to the economy, educational development of youth, mental well being are factors? They are! My wife, a Doctor, does not believe in elimination policy. ie lockdown until you have no cases, so people then work, go to school, the shops with impunity. The problem with elimination strategies, as employed here in Australia, New Zealand? Ships still come in to harbour. Planes still arrive at airports. The goods handled by peoples hands who sneeze, still arrive by all means possible. Hell, fishermen, slip over to islands in Indonesia, see their secret sweethearts. People slip out of quarantine, dont follow rules. Elimination is impossible. And enforcement of rules / policies designed to keep the masses safe the biggest challenge. Both to enforce, and of course punish? So, if it has to spread; how do you keep the vulnerable portions of the population safe. Can we make a ''bubble'' of every old age care home? Can we put every person 40 and over who has asthma on support payments? One of the hardest parts is striking the balance. Or crucifying people, notably more accountable politician than the Don, for mistakes that do cause hardship. job loss, death. No general has ever lead a war that his mistakes did not cause innocent death, unnecessary death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said: Agree and disagree. There has been a massive improvement in treatments and therapeutics which have brought Covid mortality rates way down from March and April. You don't see Covid ripping through nursing homes the way it did in the spring. However, if case counts are increasing exponentially then it is reasonable to assume deaths will also rise albeit at a lower pace given the better treatments. The one big caveat is hospitals being over run. Already seeing this in a few isolated places in the states. Likely going to be a brutal winter. I would agree with your agree/disagree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Canuck Surfer Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 I live in Melbourne. We had 6 weeks of lock down April, ending early May. It worked, down to 1 new case on a daily basis across the entire country. By June, a couple of hotel guards, from a sloppy & sloppily hired private security company, sleeping with quarantined guests. Started spreading it in the community again. It caused a massive outbreak. More than 1/3rd of the people in an apartment tower the guard lived in, of 2000 people. 10% of three neighboring towers. Melbourne locked down again. As many as 750 cases in a day in Melbourne alone by June. And 20 deaths a day by July. Spreads that fast! Today is our first day of freedom. 5 months of strict lockdown. 4 months of which no travel more than 5km from your home. Only 1 person from a family to visit a grocery store, and only within 5km from your home. No visiting neighbors, kids not allowed play dates, seeing their friends, study groups for students, use the play equipment in play grounds. Not allowed to go see Nan & Pop (grandparents). No restaurants, no schools, no gyms, no bike riding, no surfing, or bush walks (hikes); all banned! Nothing. We were back to zero cases in a day, no deaths yesterday. 6 people state wide in intensive care, none on ventilators. Lockdown eliminated. Like that choice of a word? The restrictions were diminished. Kids are back at school, retail will return, can go to a coffee shop, have a meal with still substantial restrictions. Apparently as many as 1600 people a week lost their jobs for 5 months. At a height, 1600 a day. Suicides and domestic abuse at all time record #'s. It is a hard balance. The state premier is being crucified for his elimination policy. The length of lockdown. Err, the hotel quarantine scandal that was ''preventable?'' I am surprised nobody called for the death penalty for those guards? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofsurrey Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 1 hour ago, nuckin_futz said: Agree and disagree. There has been a massive improvement in treatments and therapeutics which have brought Covid mortality rates way down from March and April. You don't see Covid ripping through nursing homes the way it did in the spring. However, if case counts are increasing exponentially then it is reasonable to assume deaths will also rise albeit at a lower pace given the better treatments. The one big caveat is hospitals being over run. Already seeing this in a few isolated places in the states. Likely going to be a brutal winter. Be careful with covid. So much is unknown. We need to err on caution. Not creating lab experiments without using Modern science like the NDP and Dr. B are doing. Coronavirus: Europe's daily deaths rise by nearly 40% compared with last week - WHO https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54704677 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RonMexico Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 8 minutes ago, Canuck Surfer said: I live in Melbourne. We had 6 weeks of lock down April, ending early May. It worked, down to 1 new case on a daily basis across the entire country. By June, a couple of hotel guards, from a sloppy & sloppily hired private security company, sleeping with quarantined guests. Started spreading it in the community again. It caused a massive outbreak. More than 1/3rd of the people in an apartment tower the guard lived in, of 2000 people. 10% of three neighboring towers. Melbourne locked down again. As many as 750 cases in a day in Melbourne alone by June. And 20 deaths a day by July. Spreads that fast! Today is our first day of freedom. 5 months of strict lockdown. 4 months of which no travel more than 5km from your home. Only 1 person from a family to visit a grocery store, and only within 5km from your home. No visiting neighbors, kids not allowed play dates, seeing their friends, study groups for students, use the play equipment in play grounds. Not allowed to go see Nan & Pop (grandparents). No restaurants, no schools, no gyms, no bike riding, no surfing, or bush walks (hikes); all banned! Nothing. We were back to zero cases in a day, no deaths yesterday. 6 people state wide in intensive care, none on ventilators. Lockdown eliminated. Like that choice of a word? The restrictions were diminished. Kids are back at school, retail will return, can go to a coffee shop, have a meal with still substantial restrictions. Apparently as many as 1600 people a week lost their jobs for 5 months. At a height, 1600 a day. Suicides and domestic abuse at all time record #'s. It is a hard balance. The state premier is being crucified for his elimination policy. The length of lockdown. Err, the hotel quarantine scandal that was ''preventable?'' I am surprised nobody called for the death penalty for those guards? It's what we did here too though. Essential business remained open but pretty much the same thing and ofc cases were super low. It was as everything started opening back up and ppl threw caution to the wind, we've seen it ramp back up. No we are at a crossroads. Do you impose a similar style lockdown again with the same poor outcomes (job loss, sanity loss, etc) or do you just try to manage outbreaks until there is a measure of control of the spread? There is no smoking gun of an answer on how to proceed. France and Italy are crumbling again too so it's not a rosy outlook worldwide either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 7 minutes ago, RonMexico said: It's what we did here too though. Essential business remained open but pretty much the same thing and ofc cases were super low. It was as everything started opening back up and ppl threw caution to the wind, we've seen it ramp back up. No we are at a crossroads. Do you impose a similar style lockdown again with the same poor outcomes (job loss, sanity loss, etc) or do you just try to manage outbreaks until there is a measure of control of the spread? There is no smoking gun of an answer on how to proceed. France and Italy are crumbling again too so it's not a rosy outlook worldwide either. You are obviously in Mexico, Ron? Didn't realise you guys did a 5 month strict lock down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bishopshodan Posted October 27, 2020 Share Posted October 27, 2020 (edited) nvm Edited October 27, 2020 by bishopshodan 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 1 hour ago, Canuck Surfer said: I live in Melbourne. We had 6 weeks of lock down April, ending early May. It worked, down to 1 new case on a daily basis across the entire country. By June, a couple of hotel guards, from a sloppy & sloppily hired private security company, sleeping with quarantined guests. Started spreading it in the community again. It caused a massive outbreak. More than 1/3rd of the people in an apartment tower the guard lived in, of 2000 people. 10% of three neighboring towers. Melbourne locked down again. As many as 750 cases in a day in Melbourne alone by June. And 20 deaths a day by July. Spreads that fast! Today is our first day of freedom. 5 months of strict lockdown. 4 months of which no travel more than 5km from your home. Only 1 person from a family to visit a grocery store, and only within 5km from your home. No visiting neighbors, kids not allowed play dates, seeing their friends, study groups for students, use the play equipment in play grounds. Not allowed to go see Nan & Pop (grandparents). No restaurants, no schools, no gyms, no bike riding, no surfing, or bush walks (hikes); all banned! Nothing. We were back to zero cases in a day, no deaths yesterday. 6 people state wide in intensive care, none on ventilators. Lockdown eliminated. Like that choice of a word? The restrictions were diminished. Kids are back at school, retail will return, can go to a coffee shop, have a meal with still substantial restrictions. Apparently as many as 1600 people a week lost their jobs for 5 months. At a height, 1600 a day. Suicides and domestic abuse at all time record #'s. It is a hard balance. The state premier is being crucified for his elimination policy. The length of lockdown. Err, the hotel quarantine scandal that was ''preventable?'' I am surprised nobody called for the death penalty for those guards? It sucks, no question. There's lots of talk about that balance, but the estimates of the cost of not fighting it on the US are $8 trillion and rising.........would they have lost that much if they'd strictly locked down for 6-8 weeks to get it under control early and gradually re-opened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKSR Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 3 hours ago, stawns said: I agree for the most part, though I count district offices as admin and they definitely are I can't agree with you there as I work in the district office and know many other people in district office positions. Believe me when I tell you that very few people in the entire education sector want to be anywhere near work right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 26 minutes ago, HKSR said: I can't agree with you there as I work in the district office and know many other people in district office positions. Believe me when I tell you that very few people in the entire education sector want to be anywhere near work right now. Maybe in your district, but not mine For example.......today a grade 7 boy was not feeling well and asked if he could call home and leave. The admin chalked it up to him just wanting to get out of school and refused to grant the request. My understanding is if kids are not feeling well, they report to the office immediately and parents are called for pickup asap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russ Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 hours ago, Canuck Surfer said: I live in Melbourne. We had 6 weeks of lock down April, ending early May. It worked, down to 1 new case on a daily basis across the entire country. By June, a couple of hotel guards, from a sloppy & sloppily hired private security company, sleeping with quarantined guests. Started spreading it in the community again. It caused a massive outbreak. More than 1/3rd of the people in an apartment tower the guard lived in, of 2000 people. 10% of three neighboring towers. Melbourne locked down again. As many as 750 cases in a day in Melbourne alone by June. And 20 deaths a day by July. Spreads that fast! Today is our first day of freedom. 5 months of strict lockdown. 4 months of which no travel more than 5km from your home. Only 1 person from a family to visit a grocery store, and only within 5km from your home. No visiting neighbors, kids not allowed play dates, seeing their friends, study groups for students, use the play equipment in play grounds. Not allowed to go see Nan & Pop (grandparents). No restaurants, no schools, no gyms, no bike riding, no surfing, or bush walks (hikes); all banned! Nothing. We were back to zero cases in a day, no deaths yesterday. 6 people state wide in intensive care, none on ventilators. Lockdown eliminated. Like that choice of a word? The restrictions were diminished. Kids are back at school, retail will return, can go to a coffee shop, have a meal with still substantial restrictions. Apparently as many as 1600 people a week lost their jobs for 5 months. At a height, 1600 a day. Suicides and domestic abuse at all time record #'s. It is a hard balance. The state premier is being crucified for his elimination policy. The length of lockdown. Err, the hotel quarantine scandal that was ''preventable?'' I am surprised nobody called for the death penalty for those guards? That doesn't surprise me. People aren't used to be cooped up at home which can cause issues within a family as tensions go higher or those who are home alone. I know I checked in every couple days with a single teacher friend just to make sure he was doing ok as he didn't leave for anything but groceries for months. There are a lot of negatives to shutdowns for everyone, it helps with the virus but a lot of mental and physical issues can arise from it. Its a weird fine balance that all governments are juggling to see what they feel is the best way to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russ Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 18 minutes ago, stawns said: Maybe in your district, but not mine For example.......today a grade 7 boy was not feeling well and asked if he could call home and leave. The admin chalked it up to him just wanting to get out of school and refused to grant the request. My understanding is if kids are not feeling well, they report to the office immediately and parents are called for pickup asap. Supervisor pissed me off at work a while ago and I almost told him I was sick and was going home lol. I felt fine but I didn't feel like dealing with him complaining at me. I could see kids doing this to get out of school. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofsurrey Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Anyone good at predictions ? I wonder if Horgan / NDP. and Dr. B are any good at Math...... Covid in BC July 25th - 27 Aug 25th - 58 Sept 25 - 98 cases Oct 26- 217 cases NOV 26 ? DEC 25th ? Jan 25th ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofsurrey Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 20 minutes ago, Russ said: Supervisor pissed me off at work a while ago and I almost told him I was sick and was going home lol. I felt fine but I didn't feel like dealing with him complaining at me. I could see kids doing this to get out of school. You realize we have a potentially fatal virus in our midst right now... You really want to not believe someone complaining of flu symptoms .... Wow, i think we need to be cautious and try to all keep safe... A kid missing a day of school is of absolutely no consequence if it can potentially save lives... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kingofsurrey Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 Levels of protective antibodies in people wane "quite rapidly" after coronavirus infection, say researchers. Antibodies are a key part of our immune defences and stop the virus from getting inside the body's cells. The Imperial College London team found the number of people testing positive for antibodies has fallen by 26% between June and September. They say immunity appears to be fading and there is a risk of catching the virus multiple times. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54696873 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stawns Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 33 minutes ago, Russ said: Supervisor pissed me off at work a while ago and I almost told him I was sick and was going home lol. I felt fine but I didn't feel like dealing with him complaining at me. I could see kids doing this to get out of school. Whether they do or not isn't the point. The protocol is if a kid says they aren't feeling well, they are to go to the office, immediately and parents are called to pick them up. It's in our pandemic response plan 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Russ Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 10 minutes ago, stawns said: Whether they do or not isn't the point. The protocol is if a kid says they aren't feeling well, they are to go to the office, immediately and parents are called to pick them up. It's in our pandemic response plan I didn't say not to do it. Makes sense. Whether he's legit sick or not let him leave school so others don't potentially get sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tortorella's Rant Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 (edited) . Edited October 28, 2020 by Tortorella's Rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sharpshooter Posted October 28, 2020 Share Posted October 28, 2020 2 hours ago, bishopshodan said: nvm This day will be observed by me as a religious-like holiday forevermore. It will be my new Festivus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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