[Edited] Bottom 5 Finish Now in Reach!

[Ghostsof1915]

Using the month of March as an example of a "good" month. The Canucks won 8 out of 13 games. Which is 62 or 61% depending if you round up or down. 

Right now in April the Canucks are 3 and 2. If the team wins both remaining games that's 5 out of 7 games. 

Impossible no.

Unlikely yes.

But will I still cheer the team on, absolutely.

 

Losing 2 games already to Ottawa hurts. The best chance is the Canucks run the table vs. Calgary and Edmonton in May.

And that's a pretty big ask. Especially considering how up and down the team has been this year

 

[-DLC-]

7 minutes ago, Provost said:

You are welcome to choose not to believe how words are defined in the dictionary... even when presented with proof of those definitions.  If, as you say yourself, you can’t be bothered to read the thread to inform yourself... then it is totally uncalled for to come on and make this post.

 

You are welcome to believe math doesn’t exist and that odds or probabilities can’t be measured.

 

You just choosing to believe those things doesn’t make you right though.

 

It certainly doesn’t give you any moral authority to tell people who do actually believe in objective reality that they are wrong... which is what a coupe of posters here have been doing to try to derail a valid thread with nonsense.

 

Understanding that our odds are slim and posting that shouldn’t be controversial... yet a couple of people have gotten so invested in pretending that isn’t true, they have been making pages of ad hominem personal attacks against me that should have been shut down by moderators as against the forum rules. 

I am commenting on the title - which is untrue.

 

If the title said "odds are slim" instead of "now out of reach"...there'd be no issue.  Out of reach suggests unattainable and that's simply not true.

 

Odds?  I play the odds on the horses....long shots come in despite the odds (pay big $$ too).  The chances may be slimmer but a win is not "out of reach".  Change the title to "the odds are low" then because you're arguing something quite different than "now out of reach".  You seem to struggle to validate that statement/title.

 

Objective reality?  Moral authority?  Hmm.

[-DLC-]

For the record, most "odds" aren't static, they're constantly changing and being upgraded.  Especially as the things the odds are based on change (rosters/injuries/etc.).

 

"Now out of reach" should have read "almost out of reach" and I'd have no problem here.  "Reality".

[Provost]

18 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

I am commenting on the title - which is untrue.

 

If the title said "odds are slim" instead of "now out of reach"...there'd be no issue.  Out of reach suggests unattainable and that's simply not true.

 

Odds?  I play the odds on the horses....long shots come in despite the odds (pay big $$ too).  The chances may be slimmer but a win is not "out of reach".  Change the title to "the odds are low" then because you're arguing something quite different than "now out of reach".  You seem to struggle to validate that statement/title.

 

Objective reality?  Moral authority?  Hmm.

Except, if you had read the thread that you admittedly couldn't be bothered to read before commenting... you would know what you are saying is just objectively wrong.  I posted it half a dozen times... I will post it again for you so you don't have to go through the effort of reading the other half a dozen times.

"capable of being reached only with great difficulty or not at all"

Look at the definition.  Look at the sentences that give examples of usage and meaning.

"An unapproachable chalet high in the mountains" is out of reach.  Except clearly it is within reach because someone built a freaking chalet there.  "the unreachable stars"... the stars aren't unreachable at all, it is just really, really difficult to reach them.

The price of university is out of reach for most people... yet many of them still manage to find a way to go to university.  Out of reach means and is commonly used to mean really difficult.... not to just mean entirely impossible.  If you weren't sure of that, then just spending a few seconds reading the OP would entirely clear up the definition I was using for the term.

You say our chances are slim but take issue with me saying they can only be reached with great difficulty.  It you had great difficulty with the title... then even reading the OP would have cleared up which definition of the term I was using.

The Canucks are only capable of reaching the playoffs with GREAT DIFFICULTY OR NOT AT ALL.

So take issue with it all you want.  It is still true.

 

Adj.

1.

out of reach - inaccessibly located or situated; "an unapproachable chalet high in the mountains"; "an unreachable canyon"; "the unreachable stars" unreachable, unreached, unapproachable inaccessible, unaccessible - capable of being reached only with great difficulty or not at all

 

Edited April 27, 2021 by Provost

[rekker]

With Petey out, the effect it has on Brock and JT is really starting to show. If Petey was in I reckon we win these last two losses against the Sens. Without  EP, the playoffs are done as far as I can see.

Edited April 27, 2021 by rekker

[IBatch]

10 minutes ago, Provost said:

Except, if you had read the thread that you admittedly couldn't be bothered to read before commenting... you would know what you are saying is just objectively wrong.  I posted it half a dozen times... I will post it again for you so you don't have to go through the effort of reading the other half a dozen times.

"capable of being reached only with great difficulty or not at all"

Look at the definition.  Look at the sentences that give examples of usage and meaning.

"An unapproachable chalet high in the mountains" is out of reach.  Except clearly it is within reach because someone built a freaking chalet there.  "the unreachable stars"... the stars aren't unreachable at all, it is just really, really difficult to reach them.

The price of university is out of reach for most people... yet many of them still manage to find a way to go to university.  Out of reach means and is commonly used to mean really difficult.... not to just mean entirely impossible.  If you weren't sure of that, then just spending a few seconds reading the OP would entirely clear up the definition I was using for the term.

You say our chances are slim but take issue with me saying they can only be reached with great difficulty.  It you had great difficulty with the title... then even reading the OP would have cleared up which definition of the term I was using.

So take issue with it all you want.  

 

Adj.

1.

out of reach - inaccessibly located or situated; "an unapproachable chalet high in the mountains"; "an unreachable canyon"; "the unreachable stars" unreachable, unreached, unapproachable inaccessible, unaccessible - capable of being reached only with great difficulty or not at all

 

The first definition of a word or phrase is always the most common one.  That's how dictionary's are created, they start with the first definition, the most common, and work their way down.   Some words, have a dozen or more meanings depending on context. 

 

The main definition of the phrase "out of reach" is the one that i'm sure most on this site understand.   So when they read the title, what they see is :

 

"beyond the capacity of someone or something to be able to achieve or attain something" 

 

The definition of impossible i'm sure most don't have a problem with:

 

"not able to occur, or exist or be DONE"

 

It's for sure reasonable to understand why when folks read the thread title, that they get their hackles up.   Many have right?   Being right is nice and all, but sometimes the higher road is just to let it go.  

Edited April 27, 2021 by IBatch

[IBatch]

2 minutes ago, rekker said:

With Petey out, the effect it has on Brock and JT is really stating to show. If Petey was in I reckon we win these last two losses against the Sens. Without he EP, the playoffs are done as far as I can see.

It's a massive cliff they have to climb without EP for sure.   That said they will try anyways, and so far it's been more then admirable, truly an incredible record without him and now Demko too.   It was always going to be a tough road.   Win the next game and back on track.   Said it near the start of this thread, just have to win 2/3.   Do that next game and we are back to 2/3 since the covid re-start.   Also managed it before without EP.   Truly admirable for sure.   And yes this could be the beginning of the end for our playoff hopes.  But i've still got hope.   

[rychicken]

the worst thing would be to miss by 2-4 points. Either make it, or miss by 12

If they miss by 2-4 the thought then is "if we would have had EP, if we would not have had Covid shutdown, if we had not had the tough January schedule, etc"....they bring back almost the exact same roster next year, and likely miss again - there will be other injuries, other teams will get better, Hogs may have a bit of a sophomore slump, etc

 

Make it and the young players get playoff experience, etc

Miss by 12 and the management may see how far they really are. Our D isn't "top third in the league", our bottom 6 is not "top third in the league", our special teams are not top third in the league. 

[Provost]

31 minutes ago, IBatch said:

The first definition of a word or phrase is always the most common one.  That's how dictionary's are created, they start with the first definition, the most common, and work their way down.   Some words, have a dozen or more meanings depending on context. 

 

The main definition of the phrase "out of reach" is the one that i'm sure most on this site understand.   So when they read the title, what they see is :

 

"beyond the capacity of someone or something to be able to achieve or attain something" 

 

The definition of impossible i'm sure most don't have a problem with:

 

"not able to occur, or exist or be DONE"

 

It's for sure reasonable to understand why when folks read the thread title, that they get their hackles up.   Many have right?   Being right is nice and all, but sometimes the higher road is just to let it go.  

The first definition of the phrase in the dictionary actually is:
"outside the distance to which someone can stretch out their hand".  Which clearly doesn't apply to the context, so you skipped that and picked the 2nd definition.

So, ya folks got their hackles up about it.  Almost invariably their expressed issue was not with the title, but was  taking exception with the actual math showing the chances were so slim so early (again, not my math... the math of neutral numerous professional analytics companies).  The same hackles were there when the title read "Playoffs Likely Out of Reach", so that is just an excuse ... this most recent tempest in a teapot was just a couple of folks making up a semantic issue (that they were wrong about) to cover the fact they were also wrong on the actual substance.

So yes, the folks who are wrong should let it go.  I let it go several times, and people kept posting increasingly smarmy nonsense that was objectively not true even in the face of being shown they were objectively wrong. 

I know it is fandom and rationality isn't the order of the day.  I am a fan too, and have been on this site longer than many of the posters have been alive.

Edited April 27, 2021 by Provost

[-DLC-]

 

 

It is not "beyond the capacity" of the team to attain this.  It's highly unlikely, but there IS a difference.

 

People thought it was "beyond the capacity" last year too.  Doesn't matter "why" or "how" they get there....just if do.

 

Over it...it's semantics but people do have a reason to challenge the idea that "the playoffs are now out of reach" because...they're not.

[Provost]

32 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

...and, I posted another definition that was also valid and correct.  If you go back and read the thread, I posted numerous links to numerous dictionary definitions showing that.  I didn't make it up.

You are also wrong that people wouldn't have had an issue with it is I said "slim" or improbable in the title.  Go back and actually read it... people did still have the exact same issues when the title originally read "Playoffs likely out of Reach" and were lashing out angrily about that and name calling about it... even though it was reality supported by reams of links by neutral 3rd party professionals who are smarter and more knowledgeable than anyone on this forum.

Their issue is they didn't like that it was true or didn't believe it.  That is still the issue.  Even now, when it is still true, people are arguing against it.

It is ludicrous that people were saying I was wrong about predicting that the playoff odds were slim... when THEY ARE STILL SLIM two months later, just like I (and every major hockey analytics model) predicted.  Even though many things have gone right for us in the intervening two months, some of the exact things I said originally would have to go right for us to have any chance at all.

 

Edited April 27, 2021 by Provost

[flat land fish]

13 minutes ago, Provost said:

The first definition of the phrase in the dictionary actually is:
"outside the distance to which someone can stretch out their hand".  Which clearly doesn't apply to the context, so you skipped that and picked the 2nd definition.

So, ya folks got their hackles up about it.  Almost invariably their expressed issue was not with the title, but was  taking exception with the actual math showing the chances were so slim so early (again, not my math... the math of neutral numerous professional analytics companies).  The same hackles were there when the title read "Playoffs Likely Out of Reach", so that is just an excuse ... this most recent tempest in a teapot was just a couple of folks making up a semantic issue (that they were wrong about) to cover the fact they were also wrong on the actual substance.

So yes, the folks who are wrong should let it go.  I let it go several times, and people kept posting increasingly smarmy nonsense that was objectively not true even in the face of being shown they were objectively wrong. 

I know it is fandom and rationality isn't the order of the day.  I am a fan too, and have been on this site longer than many of the posters have been alive.

We have had a significant amount of adversity this year and the team is playing with a lot of heart.  Are we a cup contender not yet.  If we were playing in our normal division would we be in the playoffs i think so.  Look at the wild who have feasted largely on our pacific division also rans and tough to argue that we wouldn’t have had an easier time under a normal structure.  We need to improve and will but need to put season in perspective.

[Provost]

On 4/25/2021 at 1:09 PM, Provost said:

As of today:

Moneypuck: 6.7%
Sportsclub Stats: 11.5%
Hockey Reference: 20.2%
Playoff Status: 17%
Power Rankings: 6.2%

Updated odds:
MoneyPuck: 2.5%
Sportsclub: 4.5%
Hockey Reference: 8.9%
Playoff Status: 8%
Power Rankings: Not updated yet
The Athletic: 9%

As I said in the OP.... really difficult to make up ground once you fall behind with this format of all in division games.

We have gone on a torrid 11-6-1 since the February 26th edit (a .639 pace which would translate into a 104 point season) which is as well as could reasonably be hoped for, and are still 10 points behind and our odds are still just as low as they were then.  Most of that success was on the back of Demko who had a ridiculous month of performance.

Unfortunately, to catch up we ALSO needed BOTH Montreal AND Calgary to completely fall off a cliff.  Calgary obliged by going at a .426 pace with a 11-15-1 record.  Unfortunately we needed TWO teams to fall off a cliff AS WELL as us playing lights out.

Unfortunately Montreal has played exactly .500 since then  at 11-11-5.

Even if we keep those relative paces up, we still fall short.  

We need to go around 9-5-0 AND also have Montreal just go 3-5-1 to make it... hence the long odds.  If Montreal maintains the .500 pace they have  over the last 10 games (and last half a season).. then we need to go 9-3-2.

We have to do that missing our best forward, our starting goalie, 10 of 14 games on the road, 14 games in 22 nights with 5 back to backs thrown in there.

We can let another game or two play out, but basically once we lose a couple or Montreal wins a couple... we need to just play the kids and start to look at shutting down all the players who need surgeries/rehab to fix injuries so they can have a full summer of working out and be back ready for next season to start the dance all over again.

Edited April 27, 2021 by Provost

[kanucks25]

Canucks fans have become so hysterical they are now debating the nuance of the English language instead of the team.

 

It truly is the darkest of times.

[-DLC-]

21 minutes ago, Provost said:

Updated odds:
MoneyPuck: 2.5%
Sportsclub: 4.5%
Hockey Reference: 8.9%
Playoff Status: 8%
Power Rankings: Not updated yet
The Athletic: 9%

So this proves our point more than yours.

 

The odds vary depending on where you look.  

49 minutes ago, Provost said:

It is ludicrous that people were saying I was wrong about predicting that the playoff odds were slim

But that's not what you're arguing.  And your prediction is not to be stated as fact...that's where I have an issue.  Add "almost" or "in my prediction" to your title and I wouldn't even have chimed in.  

 

But I've already invested too much time/thought on this.  I know how odds work and slim odds still offer a chance and, as stated, I often bet on the long shots because at times they do come in even if everything's stacked up against them doing so.  

 

 

[-DLC-]

11 minutes ago, kanucks25 said:

Canucks fans have become so hysterical they are now debating the nuance of the English language instead of the team.

 

It truly is the darkest of times.

Hysterical's a bit much.

 

It's a discussion board and the topic opened itself up for just that.  You even offered something so I guess you're one of us.

[kanucks25]

8 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

Hysterical's a bit much.

 

It's a discussion board and the topic opened itself up for just that.  You even offered something so I guess you're one of us.

It was sarcasm

[Ghostsof1915]

1 minute ago, kanucks25 said:

Canucks fans have become so hysterical they are now debating the nuance of the English language instead of the team.

 

It truly is the darkest of times.

It was the blurst of times....

[Provost]

50 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

So this proves our point more than yours.

 

The odds vary depending on where you look.  

But that's not what you're arguing.  And your prediction is not to be stated as fact...that's where I have an issue.  Add "almost" or "in my prediction" to your title and I wouldn't even have chimed in.  

 

But I've already invested too much time/thought on this.  I know how odds work and slim odds still offer a chance and, as stated, I often bet on the long shots because at times they do come in even if everything's stacked up against them doing so.  

 

 

Yes.. they vary from bleak to really bleak.

That is how statistical models work, they have slightly different methodologies but aren't just made up throwing darts at a board or crossing their fingers and wishing really hard which seems to be your methodology.  If you bet on longshot horses with them only giving you even odds... you would deserve to lose your money.  That is the analogy you are trying to make here.  If someone bet me 20 to 1 odds of the Canucks making the playoffs, I would take it.  The thing about longshots is that they almost never win... which is literally what I have posted.

Not sure how that proves your point?

You have also decided to ignore the definition of the title I provided for you because it doesn't suit your purposes to acknowledge it.  Just like a couple of other posters, you got ahead of yourself and now feel like you have to double down.

This reference will date me.... but it perfectly illustrates the reaction of some of you to being exposed to actual facts and dare I say it... math.  I know in high school when people didn't pay attention because "hey I will never use this in real life"... but it turns out paying attention could have been useful.

The sequel that they don't show in the clip is the common forum tactic here of throwing around their own feces when exposed to the cold harsh realities of the world.
 

 

Edited April 27, 2021 by Provost

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Provost said:

The first definition of the phrase in the dictionary actually is:
"outside the distance to which someone can stretch out their hand".  Which clearly doesn't apply to the context, so you skipped that and picked the 2nd definition.

So, ya folks got their hackles up about it.  Almost invariably their expressed issue was not with the title, but was  taking exception with the actual math showing the chances were so slim so early (again, not my math... the math of neutral numerous professional analytics companies).  The same hackles were there when the title read "Playoffs Likely Out of Reach", so that is just an excuse ... this most recent tempest in a teapot was just a couple of folks making up a semantic issue (that they were wrong about) to cover the fact they were also wrong on the actual substance.

So yes, the folks who are wrong should let it go.  I let it go several times, and people kept posting increasingly smarmy nonsense that was objectively not true even in the face of being shown they were objectively wrong. 

I know it is fandom and rationality isn't the order of the day.  I am a fan too, and have been on this site longer than many of the posters have been alive.

How in the name of god, does Out of Reach apply to being able to reach something with your hand mean anything in this context?  Again - something that is impossible to do, is what people with a basic understanding of the english language see.   Might as well just say" Nobody on the team can stretch their arms far enough to reach the playoffs"  it means the same exact thing.   Out of reach means it's unattainable.    Wow.  Semantics for sure.    I'm sorry bro, i said it too.   After a loss way back, you can go back and see this.  I prompted you to say it's impossible too and sorry for that it was reactive.   But your going never win this one.   There is zero gain by becoming a lightning rod by being captain obvious.   Hope matters and is something the team needs, fans need and our future needs.   The most ironic thing is your wrong bust seemingly can't stand the idea of not being right.    Who the heck reads :  The teams arm is not long enough to reach the playoffs?    Wowzer's.  Apologies for being a dick about this but i'd suggest you just let it go.   Your right.   100%.  If that helps, and again apologies.  Really like your posts.   And maybe this is also cathartic for some folks.   In this context when folks get their hackles up, which for sure they have, they don't see an arm reaching for a banana that's out of reach, they see the actual definition, which they have learned, it's  impossible to get done, or attain.    Funny or ironic  thing is, they both mean the same thing.