The Lock Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) 7 minutes ago, Provost said: We need more than one of those teams to go on a losing streak is kind of the whole point. We need 2 of 3 to go on big losing streaks which is hard to do when they are all playing each other half of the time... since one of them is always winning each of those games. If we only had one team between us and a playoff spot, the path would be much wider. At least one of those teams will go on a losing streak though... because they're playing each other. One team wins, the other loses Even if that doesn't happen, that would mean that each team is getting both wins and loses on a consistent basis and it all ends up going down to the last games. This just isn't a normal season where all of the other teams in the division would be playing teams from the outside of the division. They're playing each other. Simply put, we don't "need" another team to go on a losing streak but it would help. Edited February 19, 2021 by The Lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zimmy Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 All I’ve done to gain some perspective into what I see as the closeness of this race is to imagine that our boys just added one win each in our series against Montreal and Toronto. That’s not too much to imagine, is it? Two wins against beatable teams (unless you genuinely believe either or both are clearly in another stratosphere and that both will sweep the remaining 10 games we still have with them). That would put us 3 points behind the leafs and one ahead of the habs. I know .... games in hand. I’m just of the opinion that in the next 15 to 20 games the entirety of the divisional results could flip 180 and it wouldn’t surprise me. Watching the leafs play Ottawa these past two games has convinced me of this possiblity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) 19 minutes ago, The Lock said: At least one of those teams will go on a losing streak though... because they're playing each other. One team wins, the other loses Even if that doesn't happen, that would mean that each team is getting both wins and loses on a consistent basis and it all ends up going down to the last games. This just isn't a normal season where all of the other teams in the division would be playing teams from the outside of the division. They're playing each other. Simply put, we don't "need" another team to go on a losing streak but it would help. I don't think I can explain it any more clearly... one of those teams won't necessarily go on a losing streak, and it doesn't matter even if they do... because that would mean another team we are chasing is going on a winning streak (because they are playing each other a bunch and they can't both lose when they play each other). We need TWO teams to go on a losing streak while we go on a winning streak... it is much harder for both teams we are chasing to go on a losing streak when they are playing each other a bunch. Every team going .500 and splitting points fairly evenly doesn't help us because we can't catch up any ground in that situation either, it just keeps a mirage going a bit longer. If we need to win 3 more games than anyone else just to get back to .500 that gets really tough as you get fewer games to make that up, and that doesn't even get us close to the playoff bar as we will certainly need a lot more than 56 points to make it into the playoffs (probably like 63 points). All the three teams we are chasing are above .500 already... Edited February 19, 2021 by Provost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Provost said: I don't think I can explain it any more clearly... one of those teams won't necessarily go on a losing streak, and it doesn't matter even if they do... because that would mean another team we are chasing is going on a winning streak (because they are playing each other a bunch and they can't both lose when they play each other). We need TWO teams to go on a losing streak while we go on a winning streak... it is much harder for both teams we are chasing to go on a losing streak when they are playing each other a bunch. Every team going .500 and splitting points fairly evenly doesn't help us, it just keeps a mirage going a bit longer. If we need to win 3 more games than anyone else just to get back to .500 that gets really tough as you get fewer games to make that up, and that doesn't even get us close to the playoff bar as we will certainly need a lot more than 56 points to make it into the playoffs (probably like 63 points). We only need 4th to get into the playoffs. It's just simple math that if every other team splits 0.500 then we have a chance. The teams with a losing record get closer to 0.500 while the teams with a winning record also get closer to 0.500. Eventually, only a game or 2 would be the difference given how many games are left. This isn't even hockey knowledge anymore it's basic math and statistics. Even you should know this stuff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 5 minutes ago, The Lock said: We only need 4th to get into the playoffs. It's just simple math that if every other team splits 0.500 then we have a chance. The teams with a losing record get closer to 0.500 while the teams with a winning record also get closer to 0.500. Eventually, only a game or 2 would be the difference given how many games are left. This isn't even hockey knowledge anymore it's basic math and statistics. Even you should know this stuff. ... there isn't one team between us and 4th place like you keep suggesting... there are two teams. If everyone above us plays .500 between now and then we are still out of a playoff spot by 6-7 points. You are inventing some magical perfect scenario were the exact right combination of teams go above .500 and the others below .500 to get us just 3-4 games out of a playoff spot... and then you re imagining that at the end of the season it is reasonable to think we will go 8-2 to gain enough ground on their .500 pace to make up the ground we need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) 12 minutes ago, Provost said: ... there isn't one team between us and 4th place like you keep suggesting... there are two teams. If everyone above us plays .500 between now and then we are still out of a playoff spot by 6-7 points. You are inventing some magical perfect scenario were the exact right combination of teams go above .500 and the others below .500 to get us just 3-4 games out of a playoff spot... and then you re imagining that at the end of the season it is reasonable to think we will go 8-2 to gain enough ground on their .500 pace to make up the ground we need to. So I just did the math. If everyone did a 0.500 until the end of the season, Montreal would be highest at 84 or 85 points (I calculated 84.5 so whatever you want to round it to). We would have 71 points. This means it would be a 5 game difference between now and the end of the season for 1st overall. That's it. It would also only be 2 or 3 games between us and a playoff spot with Edmonton only having 77 points in the 4th spot (to confirm what you've said). So if we happened to just play slightly better than everyone else, even slightly.... we're in. We'd only need to win 2 or 3 more games throughout the season. (Also Jets would leap over the Oilers if you want to bash the Oilers ;)) (Editing while I fix math. Hold on.) (Never mind I was correct to begin with) Edited February 19, 2021 by The Lock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 @Provost I double check and the math was correct. Just posting this here in case you started replying when I was recalculating. I'm about providing correct information at the end of the day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) 16 minutes ago, The Lock said: So I just did the math. If everyone did a 0.500 until the end of the season, Montreal would be highest at 84 or 85 points (I calculated 84.5 so whatever you want to round it to). We would have 71 points. This means it would be a 5 game difference between now and the end of the season for 1st overall. That's it. It would also only be 2 or 3 games between us and a playoff spot with Edmonton only having 77 points in the 4th spot (to confirm what you've said). So if we happened to just play slightly better than everyone else, even slightly.... we're in. We'd only need to win 2 or 3 more games throughout the season. (Also Jets would leap over the Oilers if you want to bash the Oilers ;)) Yes... if your perfect scenario happened (of everyone playing exactly .500, we would only fall short by 2-3 games. In no realistic world is you perfect scenario going to happen, it has never happened before.... the perfect scenario which still leaves us out of the playoffs by the way. The playoff bar has never been just .500 which is what your scenario hopes that we get to. Part of that is because all the teams aren’t equal, and the other part is the OT extra point... the teams ahead of us could evenly split their games and all end up over .500 because they will have a bunch of extra OT points split between them. Go re-do that math using current winning percentages... which, at over 1/3rd the way through the season are a much better model for what is more likely to happen going forward as well... at least for most teams... one may go on a run and one falters... but the same as in the regular season, the teams on playoff spots after Christmas mostly stay in playoff spots at the end of the season. Using winning percentages, the current gap triples and we are 10-14 points out of a playoff spot. Edited February 19, 2021 by Provost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghostsof1915 Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 You know what Jack Burton says at a time like this? Jack Burton says, "What the hell...". 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 Just now, Provost said: Yes... if your perfect scenario happened (of everyone playing exactly .500, we would only fall short by 2-3 games. In no realistic world is you perfect scenario going to happen, it has never happened before.... the perfect scenario which still leaves us out of the playoffs by the way. The playoff bar has never been just .500 which is what your scenario hopes that we get to. Part of that is because all the teams aren’t equal, and the other part is the OT extra point... the teams ahead of us could evenly split their games and all end up over .500 because they will have a bunch of extra OT points split between them. Go re-do that math using current winning percentages... which, at over 1/3rd the way through the season are a much better model for what is more likely to happen going forward as well... at least for most teams... one may go on a run and one falters... the current gap triples and we are 9-10 points out of a playoff spot. When did I say that scenario would happen? I'm making the point that a team doesn't have to go on a major losing streak for us to get a playoff spot. Even if 1, 2, or 3 of those playoff teams have winning streaks we can get in. If your scenario happens, the Canucks won't get to the playoffs. But in any scenario where our ratio starts going up, the more likely we make the playoffs. We have control and we literally have 36 games left. Either we will deserve to be in the playoffs or we won't. Doesn't mean we should be panicking yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted February 19, 2021 Author Share Posted February 19, 2021 Just now, The Lock said: When did I say that scenario would happen? I'm making the point that a team doesn't have to go on a major losing streak for us to get a playoff spot. Even if 1, 2, or 3 of those playoff teams have winning streaks we can get in. If your scenario happens, the Canucks won't get to the playoffs. But in any scenario where our ratio starts going up, the more likely we make the playoffs. We have control and we literally have 36 games left. Either we will deserve to be in the playoffs or we won't. Doesn't mean we should be panicking yet. You literally just did math with a scenario of everyone getting exactly .500 to “prove” that we are really only a few games out of contention. We need two teams to get significantly worse than us to make up the ground... again circling back to then guaranteed points they are going to get while playing each other where it is impossible for us to gain the 4-5 games we are already behind them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) 13 minutes ago, Provost said: You literally just did math with a scenario of everyone getting exactly .500 to “prove” that we are really only a few games out of contention. We need two teams to get significantly worse than us to make up the ground... again circling back to then guaranteed points they are going to get while playing each other where it is impossible for us to gain the 4-5 games we are already behind them. No. We just need to get slightly better. That's the key. Because every team is playing each other, and there's only 7 teams in our division, mathematically, it's unlikely for 4 teams to go on a crazy winning streak. In fact, that 0.500 scenario I mentioned, while it's unlikely to happen for all the teams in that division, it's actually very likely to happen to the 2 teams above us, again, because we have only 7 teams. If 2 or 3 teams go on a hot streak has to be coming from somewhere, and if it's not us... it's the teams around us. The two scenarios where if we play better and still don't make it, is if Calgary, Edmonton, and Winnipeg pass Toronto and Montreal. THAT would be the hardest scenario. The other part that could hurt would be from overtime losses if we still don't get any between now and the end, If the other teams get a lot of overtime, that would be the other problem. Aside from those 2 scenarios above... the ball's in our court (or I guess puck... and it's not a court.... you know what I mean...). Edited February 19, 2021 by The Lock 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canuktravella Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) ya we are tied with calgary and a game back of jets 4 games in hand hurts us but we are far from out of it they need to win thoughs games. nothing is easy soo we arent out of it. If we lose 6 of next 10 we could be in trouble but we get a decent draft pick so its all good either way. Gonna be nice when sutter benn baertchi spooner edlers bonus overages 18.7 mill is off the books plus who ever seattle takes Edited February 19, 2021 by canuktravella 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) 6 hours ago, ImConfused said: Well that's a bit of a stretch lol You do know what "mathematically" means, right? Mathmatically no, but as of yesterday before game time we needed to play .666 hockey to beat Calgary if they stayed at the same points % they were on. mathmatically we can lose 33% of the points awarded Still a tough haul here is what our sched might need to look like WIN Win loss Feb 17 19 21 cal (done) winni winni need 2 of 3 wins (any style) fromWinnipeg fe 23 25 Mar 1 winni tor tor then a split from Tor ( 2 OTL would do) 15 17 19 ott ott mon 22 24 20 winni winni mon thats a tough week (if we get to here the rest is doable) 31 Apr 3 apr 4 cal ed winni 8 10 6 cal cal winni 12 14 17 ed ed tor 22 24 19 ott ott tor 26 28 30 ott ott tor May 4 May 6 May 1 ed ed Tor May 8 Cal that is how we win 66% 2 out of each 3 game set winning the easier games doable but tough and not much room for error also provided Edmonton does not go on a tear Edited February 19, 2021 by lmm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmilyM Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 The only thing consistent this season is the inconsistency. Even though we’re more than 1/3 of the way through the season, it’s harder this year than any to project standings. One hot streak by a team is enough to change the landscape. We have the least favourable start to the season and one of the better finishes. Certain teams may be more tired/injured than us in the final weeks. What if covid strikes a Canadian team and messes up any momentum they had? So many unknowns for an already hard league to predict to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lmm Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 6 minutes ago, EmilyM said: The only thing consistent this season is the inconsistency. Even though we’re more than 1/3 of the way through the season, it’s harder this year than any to project standings. One hot streak by a team is enough to change the landscape. We have the least favourable start to the season and one of the better finishes. Certain teams may be more tired/injured than us in the final weeks. What if covid strikes a Canadian team and messes up any momentum they had? So many unknowns for an already hard league to predict to begin with. I really wonder how New Jersey will catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slegr Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 We are in a big hole, for sure. Those consecutive losses may have put us in a hole too deep to crawl out of, but at least we seemed to have stabilized a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Junkyard Dog Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 3 minutes ago, Slegr said: We are in a big hole, for sure. Those consecutive losses may have put us in a hole too deep to crawl out of, but at least we seemed to have stabilized a bit. We can’t afford another losing stretch. That’s for certain. A winning stretch would put us back in the hunt, especially if one of the teams above us start going through a bad stretch. We are in a rough spot. Gonna be an intense next 10-15 games. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dogcrazy Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, Slegr said: We are in a big hole, for sure. Those consecutive losses may have put us in a hole too deep to crawl out of, but at least we seemed to have stabilized a bit. Yes, we have dug ourselves a big enough hole that the playoffs is likely out of reach at this point, but at least it is good to see the boys are playing with some pride. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted February 19, 2021 Share Posted February 19, 2021 (edited) I also want to be clear that what I'm saying earlier all depends on us being a better team the rest of the stretch. I totally agree that we've dug a hole, it's just not as big of a hole as a normal season because these teams are all playing each other. It's a little more forgiving in that regard. That being said, if we continue to play like we have the first 20 games of the season, then goodbye playoff chances. Still, no point in writing things off yet. Makes no sense really. What does one gain by giving up right away? What's even the point in giving up right away? Edited February 19, 2021 by The Lock 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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