Canucks playoff odds... I looked them up

[grouse747]

basically on 650, which I am really really enjoying after switching over from 1040, they were debating when to play more young players like rathbone and juolevi....... many radio people seem to think that Canucks have some reasonable chance of making the playoffs. I'd say 10%+

 

I looked up a bunch of sites that give an estimation of this... this is what I found.

 

1.6%, 3.1%, 3.3% 3.7%, 5.3%, 9%......... these were statistical models... the one site that had odds you could be on was the 3.0% (I adjusted for the juice. or put another way that the "yes" and "no" odds didn't add up to 100%)

 

so I say play these young guys as soon as possible.... especially with the COVID.... I see so an incredible number of benefits. and zero drawbacks. I even see some big risks with playing our star players a lot in a covid/pointless end to the season...... It might be slightly different if Canucks home games had fans....

 

I understand the argument of waiting a few games........ but at some point, you have to realize that "numbers don't lie" (most of the time)

 

as per 650 vs. 1040, I find 650 actually talks Canucks........... 1040 talked "how much time do you give Jake Virtanen?". can't even remember another tangible Canucks discussion (I guess maybe whether TG is a good coach....... and I'm talking the radio shows, not the Canucks post-game/reporter people). 1040 was more like sports-themed morning/afternoon drive radio show. they were more like radio personalities. Don Taylor was probably the 1 and only reason I listened to 1040.

 

 

[IBatch]

21 minutes ago, grouse747 said:

basically on 650, which I am really really enjoying after switching over from 1040, they were debating when to play more young players like rathbone and juolevi....... many radio people seem to think that Canucks have some reasonable chance of making the playoffs. I'd say 10%+

 

I looked up a bunch of sites that give an estimation of this... this is what I found.

 

1.6%, 3.1%, 3.3% 3.7%, 5.3%, 9%......... these were statistical models... the one site that had odds you could be on was the 3.0% (I adjusted for the juice. or put another way that the "yes" and "no" odds didn't add up to 100%)

 

so I say play these young guys as soon as possible.... especially with the COVID.... I see so an incredible number of benefits. and zero drawbacks. I even see some big risks with playing our star players a lot in a covid/pointless end to the season...... It might be slightly different if Canucks home games had fans....

 

I understand the argument of waiting a few games........ but at some point, you have to realize that "numbers don't lie" (most of the time)

 

as per 650 vs. 1040, I find 650 actually talks Canucks........... 1040 talked "how much time do you give Jake Virtanen?". can't even remember another tangible Canucks discussion (I guess maybe whether TG is a good coach....... and I'm talking the radio shows, not the Canucks post-game/reporter people). 1040 was more like sports-themed morning/afternoon drive radio show. they were more like radio personalities. Don Taylor was probably the 1 and only reason I listened to 1040.

 

 

The thing about numbers is they could change quickly.   I don't think it's a roll of the dice that we play OTT four times in a row, and that we start at home the first six games - Arrow made a thread about it as it's that obvious our playoff aspirations will quickly go away OR change from 3% to 30-40% over that time frame.   If we come 6-0 the entire landscape changes, especially if MTL plays less then .500 over that time.    So don't expect to see any young guys other then the ones required to fill in for Schmidt and JV..OJ for sure given Benns gone.   And Beagle ... lol Either way some guys will get games over that stretch, and realistically even if we are back in it and the odds creep close to 50%....the team will need them just for rest days.     Basically no matter what the young guys are getting games.    And hope they are hungry and ready to play balls to the walls to earn a spot. 

[BCNate]

34 minutes ago, grouse747 said:

basically on 650, which I am really really enjoying after switching over from 1040, they were debating when to play more young players like rathbone and juolevi....... many radio people seem to think that Canucks have some reasonable chance of making the playoffs. I'd say 10%+

 

I looked up a bunch of sites that give an estimation of this... this is what I found.

 

1.6%, 3.1%, 3.3% 3.7%, 5.3%, 9%......... these were statistical models... the one site that had odds you could be on was the 3.0% (I adjusted for the juice. or put another way that the "yes" and "no" odds didn't add up to 100%)

 

so I say play these young guys as soon as possible.... especially with the COVID.... I see so an incredible number of benefits. and zero drawbacks. I even see some big risks with playing our star players a lot in a covid/pointless end to the season...... It might be slightly different if Canucks home games had fans....

 

I understand the argument of waiting a few games........ but at some point, you have to realize that "numbers don't lie" (most of the time)

 

as per 650 vs. 1040, I find 650 actually talks Canucks........... 1040 talked "how much time do you give Jake Virtanen?". can't even remember another tangible Canucks discussion (I guess ybe whether TG is a good coach....... and I'm talking the radio shows, not the Canucks post-game/reporter people). 1040 was more like sports-themed morning/afternoon drive radio show. they were more like radio personalities. Don Taylor was probably the 1 and only reason I listened to 1040.

 

 

Montreal has 15 games left.  Assume they go 7-8, they end up with 61 points. We need to go 13-6 or get 26 points to get in.  Our last 19 games we picked up 21 points, so we need to be a bit better than that.  Not likely, but not impossible.  

 

Calgary is done, they need to go 10-2 to get to 61 points, not sure how they are still showing 15% chance of getting in..

Edited April 17, 2021 by BCNate

[ShawnAntoski]

The pretend playoff push is done

[Toni Zamboni]

[grouse747]

there is some argument with all this rest and a "fresh start" we may come out hot........ didn't that happen COVID March 2020....... and then if we play really really well then we might do well in playoffs (like 2020).

 

I do think the one comment is right on..... someone needs to be realistic if we don't come out of the gate hot. and Canucks odds will almost assuredly go to zero. but might spike a lot with 3 straight wins out of the game.

 

curious what the delta would be on our playoffs chances i.e. how much they would change with one/two/three/etc. wins out of the gate.. I might try to model it, and first model I'd just assume Montreal doesn't play any games.

[grouse747]

looking at expanded standings.. Montreal is 5-5 last 10, which is poor.

 

but Vancouver is interesting...... 6-3-1 last 10 games, but streak of 3 losses....... did we go unbeaten in reg time for at least 7 games recently? I knew we played well but don't remember that.... and of course, I remember the "one goal in 2 games" in Winnipeg, which I think were the last games.

[grouse747]

now that I think about it.. play the A lineup for a few games....... 

 

I do wonder if the professional athlete psyche is that you still have a chance until you are mathematically eliminated..... I know that's true, but that's not remotely realistic. 

[-DLC-]

There's a reason there's an odds board at the track that keeps updating (although that's based on dollars bet).  Odds have so many variables in place when you're talking several teams that will all factor in.  I get it...based on probability that considers GR, points, etc.  But a goaltender goes down and that can be huge.  A star player is injured or suspended...suddenly things start changing.

[Davathor]

[Makaramel MacKhiato]

Should've trade Pearson for picks.

Shouldn't have traded our picks for Toffoli. 

 

Needed Benning to recognize the place we are in as a team right now like everyone else sees it. 

[Hamhuis Hip Check]

18 minutes ago, debluvscanucks said:

There's a reason there's an odds board at the track that keeps updating (although that's based on dollars bet).  Odds have so many variables in place when you're talking several teams that will all factor in.  I get it...based on probability that considers GR, points, etc.  But a goaltender goes down and that can be huge.  A star player is injured or suspended...suddenly things start changing.

Like say mcdavid or draisaitl goes down, we have 5 games against them and games in hand. Highly unlikely but still possible

[Nuxfanabroad]

The only way I'd really enjoy making a miracle-run to the PO's, is if it came from unlikely(& overpaid!) sources.

 

For example, if Holtby suddenly went on some unbelievable tear, & then MD contributed some beauty starts, as well. Say we got big key goals from depth guys. Leaf cast-aways & the like.

 

In truth, I see the chances of this^ dreamscape occurring, at almost 0%. We've leaned too heavily on key youth, dating back to the EDM bubble. It's time to let them rest up, recharge, & get hungry for 2021-22. Let's pocket some nice picks, & look forward with new hopes & dreams.

Edited April 17, 2021 by Nuxfanabroad

[AV's Coin]

First time ive said its time to truley tank... rotate players in and out... prevent injuries, see what we have

Edited April 17, 2021 by AV's Coin

[Arrow 1983]

2 hours ago, grouse747 said:

basically on 650, which I am really really enjoying after switching over from 1040, they were debating when to play more young players like rathbone and juolevi....... many radio people seem to think that Canucks have some reasonable chance of making the playoffs. I'd say 10%+

 

I looked up a bunch of sites that give an estimation of this... this is what I found.

 

1.6%, 3.1%, 3.3% 3.7%, 5.3%, 9%......... these were statistical models... the one site that had odds you could be on was the 3.0% (I adjusted for the juice. or put another way that the "yes" and "no" odds didn't add up to 100%)

 

so I say play these young guys as soon as possible.... especially with the COVID.... I see so an incredible number of benefits. and zero drawbacks. I even see some big risks with playing our star players a lot in a covid/pointless end to the season...... It might be slightly different if Canucks home games had fans....

 

I understand the argument of waiting a few games........ but at some point, you have to realize that "numbers don't lie" (most of the time)

 

as per 650 vs. 1040, I find 650 actually talks Canucks........... 1040 talked "how much time do you give Jake Virtanen?". can't even remember another tangible Canucks discussion (I guess maybe whether TG is a good coach....... and I'm talking the radio shows, not the Canucks post-game/reporter people). 1040 was more like sports-themed morning/afternoon drive radio show. they were more like radio personalities. Don Taylor was probably the 1 and only reason I listened to 1040.

 

 

Stats are only as good as the person reading them

 

Most people who die of hypothermia are wearing a coat at the time. Does that mean coats don't work in cold weather.

 

Look at  the stats you post they range form 1.6% to 9% there is no good statically modeling for predicting how a team of 20 players are going to play

[Davathor]

3 minutes ago, Arrow 1983 said:

Stats are only as good as the person reading them

 

Most people who die of hypothermia are wearing a coat at the time. Does that mean coats don't work in cold weather.

 

Look at  the stats you post they range form 1.6% to 9% there is no good statically modeling for predicting how a team of 20 players are going to play

 

Actually its more common to find people who died of hypothermia remove their clothing in a state of confusion, or forget spare clothes/warm coffee in their backpacks. 

[Arrow 1983]

4 minutes ago, Davathor said:

 

Actually its more common to find people who died of hypothermia remove their clothing in a state of confusion, or forget spare clothes/warm coffee in their backpacks. 

Then both Hypothermia and stats share something in common, They can both make you become illogical and come to the wrong conclusion  

[Davathor]

1 minute ago, Arrow 1983 said:

Then both Hypothermia and stats share something in common, They can both make you become illogical and come to the wrong conclusion  

 

And also frozen dead

[Arrow 1983]

2 minutes ago, Davathor said:

 

And also frozen dead

so true

[Tyndall2]

21 hours ago, grouse747 said:

there is some argument with all this rest and a "fresh start" we may come out hot........ didn't that happen COVID March 2020....... and then if we play really really well then we might do well in playoffs (like 2020).

 

I do think the one comment is right on..... someone needs to be realistic if we don't come out of the gate hot. and Canucks odds will almost assuredly go to zero. but might spike a lot with 3 straight wins out of the game.

 

curious what the delta would be on our playoffs chances i.e. how much they would change with one/two/three/etc. wins out of the gate.. I might try to model it, and first model I'd just assume Montreal doesn't play any games.

Totally agree with the idea of giving them 3 games to see where they are.  If they take 5/6 points then carry on a few games at a time.  If they are sub 500 in the first half dozen games start playing the young kids to see what they offer for the future.  And, sit some of the vets.  Hard to trade or deal with seriously injured players come draft/trade time.