Coconuts Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 10 minutes ago, King Heffy said: I'd rather see Alberta drown. But then they'd get high picks! No man's land is perfect for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 (edited) 2 hours ago, JamesBlondage said: I think Francis made a lot of questionable choices, I don’t see Seattle having anywhere near the success of Vegas Some of the season ranking projections are in and they still rank above us… so maybe not Vegas, but I don’t think we are in a spot to start casting stones. We need to hope for a bunch of bounce back and/or career years from several players to be in the playoff hunt. Edited October 4, 2021 by Provost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D-Money Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 1 hour ago, Coconuts said: I imagine Seattle was anticipating the period leading up to the draft, and the draft itself, would be very different. GM's simply weren't giving them leverage and they whiffed on several of their picks. I know it's a big salary, but how don't you take Tarasenko? It'd have given them a legit exciting talent to market, it says a lot about Seattle's forward group when the most exciting guys are Gourde, Schwartz, and Eberle. And beyond those three there's really not a whole lot of scoring punch. It's not as if two years of 7.5M is a huge commitment. There are other guys they passed on too, it was a strange draft. They're a longshot to make the playoffs imo, even in this division. Only way they do is by grinding it out, playing solid D, and probably playing a trap dependent style. Although I didn’t agree with lots of Seattle’s moves, I’d have trouble passing on Vince Dunn too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 18 minutes ago, Provost said: Some of the season ranking projections are in and they still rank above us… so maybe not Vegas, but I don’t think we are in a spot to start casting stones. We need to hope for a bunch of bounce back and/or career years from several players to be in the playoff hunt. A lot of those rankings though are likely based on Vegas' success, of which is pretty evident Seattle went a different route. Truth is, no one really knows how well Seattle will do in its 1st year so all of those rankings are going to be guesses at best since there's not a lot of prior knowledge to go by. I don't think we'll necessarily need career years to get into the playoffs given our division's not nearly as tough as the Canadian division of last year (remember, 6 of 7 Canadian teams were considered to be good teams from the get go). We might have even made the playoffs last year if it was a normal year, but clearly it wasn't a normal year in more ways than one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 51 minutes ago, D-Money said: Although I didn’t agree with lots of Seattle’s moves, I’d have trouble passing on Vince Dunn too. There were a lot of better options available on D. Dunn is pretty terrible in his own end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pears Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 4 hours ago, JamesBlondage said: I think Francis made a lot of questionable choices, I don’t see Seattle having anywhere near the success of Vegas It’s laughable some people think Seattle has a chance of even sniffing the playoffs let alone making them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 2 minutes ago, Pears said: It’s laughable some people think Seattle has a chance of even sniffing the playoffs let alone making them. I think we'll finish second behind Vegas, and Seattle will battle LA for the third spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pears Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 12 minutes ago, King Heffy said: I think we'll finish second behind Vegas, and Seattle will battle LA for the third spot. I agree with the first part, I just don’t see how Seattle competes with anyone with that forward group. If their forward selections weren’t so bad then yeah I could see them push for a wild card. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mustard Tiger Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 4 hours ago, Dazzle said: Poor Gavin Bayreuther. Selected by Seattle, signs with Columbus, and now on waivers. What an absolute joke of an expansion pick by Seattle. A complete waste. I'm with you. Give it a couple years when the dust settles. Lots of complaints from seattle diehards about what could have been that's for sure. Honestly i would have went for tarasenko. Wouldn't take price because it helps the habs horrible cap situation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BPA Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 Seattle is gonna tank to get Wright / Bedard / the Russian guy in the next couple of drafts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FlyLow_ Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 Thought Essymont has been one of the Jets best players in camp. Surprised he's on waivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 4 hours ago, The Lock said: A lot of those rankings though are likely based on Vegas' success, of which is pretty evident Seattle went a different route. Truth is, no one really knows how well Seattle will do in its 1st year so all of those rankings are going to be guesses at best since there's not a lot of prior knowledge to go by. I don't think we'll necessarily need career years to get into the playoffs given our division's not nearly as tough as the Canadian division of last year (remember, 6 of 7 Canadian teams were considered to be good teams from the get go). We might have even made the playoffs last year if it was a normal year, but clearly it wasn't a normal year in more ways than one. No they aren’t, they are based on the cumulative expected wins of the players on the team… same as our why our ranking is so low. Our defence is expected to be one of the worst in the league based on last performance. They have actually rated Demko really highly so we need to him repeat his amazing performance from last season. OEL has a good chance to outperform his recent numbers… but guys like Hoglander also have a decent chance to not have progression and even fall back a little. In our bubble year pretty much everyone outperformed their expectations and that just isn’t going to happen normally. Unless we capture lightning in a bottle somehow, we will be fighting for a wildcard spot as expected. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King Heffy Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 27 minutes ago, Provost said: No they aren’t, they are based on the cumulative expected wins of the players on the team… same as our why our ranking is so low. Our defence is expected to be one of the worst in the league based on last performance. They have actually rated Demko really highly so we need to him repeat his amazing performance from last season. OEL has a good chance to outperform his recent numbers… but guys like Hoglander also have a decent chance to not have progression and even fall back a little. In our bubble year pretty much everyone outperformed their expectations and that just isn’t going to happen normally. Unless we capture lightning in a bottle somehow, we will be fighting for a wildcard spot as expected. So prediction is made by analytics dweebs who have no actual understanding of the sport. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 (edited) 13 hours ago, King Heffy said: So prediction is made by analytics dweebs who have no actual understanding of the sport. Makes sense. You mean compared with a random dude on the internet with zero knowledge or expertise and who have consistently historically shown themselves to be wrong about pretty much everything hockey related that they bloviate about? You might want to lay off the name calling there, lest you be hoisted by your own petard… Edited October 5, 2021 by Provost 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Lock Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 14 hours ago, Provost said: No they aren’t, they are based on the cumulative expected wins of the players on the team… same as our why our ranking is so low. Our defence is expected to be one of the worst in the league based on last performance. They have actually rated Demko really highly so we need to him repeat his amazing performance from last season. OEL has a good chance to outperform his recent numbers… but guys like Hoglander also have a decent chance to not have progression and even fall back a little. In our bubble year pretty much everyone outperformed their expectations and that just isn’t going to happen normally. Unless we capture lightning in a bottle somehow, we will be fighting for a wildcard spot as expected. Do you have a link that shows where they get their findings? I'd genuinely like to be able to see what they do and how they get their results. In terms of expectations, this still doesn't account for what I said with the North division of last year being tough and our division of this year likely being easier. I'd like you to address this point rather than try and tip toe around it. I'm not denying that having players step up will be beneficial for us (obviously) but I just don't think it's as vital as you think it is, which I'm not surprised given our previous conversations. You seem easily paniced. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patel Bure Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 22 hours ago, theo5789 said: Brendan Gaunce! 4th line C! That would be funny. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patel Bure Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 (edited) 19 hours ago, Coconuts said: But then they'd get high picks! In King Heffy’s defense, high picks haven’t exactly helped out Albertan teams very much since 1992. :-p. Take away Calgary’s 2004 and Edmonton’s 2006 cup runs, and what you have is a whole lot of misery. 19 hours ago, Coconuts said: Edited October 5, 2021 by Patel Bure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Provost Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, The Lock said: Do you have a link that shows where they get their findings? I'd genuinely like to be able to see what they do and how they get their results. In terms of expectations, this still doesn't account for what I said with the North division of last year being tough and our division of this year likely being easier. I'd like you to address this point rather than try and tip toe around it. I'm not denying that having players step up will be beneficial for us (obviously) but I just don't think it's as vital as you think it is, which I'm not surprised given our previous conversations. You seem easily paniced. lol If you have a subscription to The Athletic... the Dom Luszczyszyn model shows a lot of explanation and how many expected wins each player is rated at. It is based on career performance but weights recent years more than distant years, so a bad couple years can give a bit of a negative outlook. That is why I think OEL has a good chance to surpass his expected performance. On the other hand, there are players who had really good years for the last two years and may not repeat them. A player like Hoglander will have more volatile numbers since he doesn't have a long resume... he is rated pretty highly so he needs to at least match his previous output to not fall below expected performance and that could be tough when sharing prime ice time with a new guy like Garland. Really it is our defence that stacks up terribly. Only Hughes really is rated to give us more expected wins... with Hamonic and Rathbone being slightly above neutral. Myers/Poolman/OEL are all expected to cost us wins in that model. It actually downgrades our defence from last year when Edler and Schmidt were taking the toughest defensive match ups and still (barely) treading water... replacing those tough minutes with an OEL-Poolman pairing doesn't bode particularly well based on their past career performance. The prediction is 87 points for us with a 31% chance to make the playoffs which seems pretty fair. A key injury to another team we are competing for a spot with or a breakout year from a a couple players (with no corresponding bad years from other ones to offset it) and we could slide into the playoffs in a weak division. Interestingly, that same model rates the Kraken pretty well above us as it did for Vegas when it came into the league and folks considered that laughable. No high end talent, but a deep team where even 4th line players can give more expected wins... and a really solid 4 pairings of D could propel them to the wildcard race right with us. I am not convinced... but have no real compelling argument against the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrJockitch Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 (edited) A lot of hockey is just randomness. It is really hard to tell when a team will come together and catch lightning in a bottle. There are very few sure things. Tampa doing well last couple years, sure, Colorado doing well this year, sure, past that there is nothing definitive. Don’t have a clue how we will do this year. My suspicion is we will score and score a lot and be scored on a lot. I think we will probably outscore our troubles, at least in the regular season, particularly because we should have two good PP units. Remember a monkey can pick playoffs as well as the “experts”. Edited October 5, 2021 by DrJockitch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coconuts Posted October 5, 2021 Share Posted October 5, 2021 55 minutes ago, Patel Bure said: In King Heffy’s defense, high picks haven’t exactly helped out Albertan teams very much since 1992. :-p. Take away Calgary’s 2004 and Edmonton’s 2006 cup runs, and what you have is a whole lot of misery. It's true, but what a waste of top flight talent 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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