[Rumour] Coyotes gauging market on Jakob Chychrun

[shiznak]

8 hours ago, D-Money said:

I agree that picks outside the top-5/10 are generally overrated. That said, I also think that having quality middle-6 and 2nd pairing guys locked in and cost-controlled for many years is quite valuable. So I would still look at all of these players as big finds for their team:

 

2004 - Zajac, Bolland

2005 - Hanzal, Cogliano, Niskanen

2006 - Berglund, N. Foligno

2007 - Cole, Backlund, Perron

2008 - Gardiner

2009 - Leddy, Kreider, Johansson, Palmieri

2010 - K. Hayes, Coyle, Nelson

2011 - Klefbom, Danault, Rakell

2012 - Hertl, *Vasilevskiy (pretty sure you just missed him), Maata, Skjei, Pearson

...and so on...

 

Even though these guys weren't stars, they provided a lot of utility to their team. And in many cases, after providing value on the ice for years, they were moved for another pick, sometimes even another 1st rounder. Having that steady pipeline of youth and talent is essential to building a deep, winning team.

Yeah, I missed Vasilevskiy and maybe both Hertl and Klefbom as core players for their team. The rest are pretty much role players, playing in a supportive role on their teams. 

Dobberhockey did a nice article about the probability of picks in a certain ranges.

 

https://dobberprospects.com/2020/05/16/nhl-draft-pick-probabilities/

 

[wai_lai416]

On 12/26/2021 at 10:56 PM, N7Nucks said:

Why do we want a blueline of all lefties? We still have Rathbone in the pipeline and a future of OEL and Hughes. Vegas moved out their lefties specifically cause a blueline of 4+ lefties is not effective. I hate that people think just moving Hughes to his off wing is a good idea too. He's terrible defensively and it would be worse on the right side. I dunno, maybe I am in the minority but I don't see a fit with Chychrun. We need righties. Good righties. We have one good righty and you want to trade him for another lefty.

lol what's with this constant bashing hughes defensively crap? he's terrible defensively yet he leads the team in +/- he had 1 bad season where the entire team structure wise was crap and you go on and on and on bashing his defensive game. he's on pace to be + 25-30 this year and i guess that's still absolute trash defensive player.

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

lol what's with this constant bashing hughes defensively crap? he's terrible defensively yet he leads the team in +/- he had 1 bad season where the entire team structure wise was crap and you go on and on and on bashing his defensive game. he's on pace to be + 25-30 this year and i guess that's still absolute trash defensive player.

Last year he was terrible.  It wasn't just the stat line, it was obvious he was easily overrun, teams just had to target him and he couldn't keep up with it.   This year that chip on his shoulder is kicking some serious ass... love it!

 

Plus minus is a stat that always needs context year to year to understand the why of it.    Wayne Gretzky was plus 98 or something one year (why of it?  he's the best player the NHL has or will ever see...wish that everyone got to witness that sort of greatness, i did and only Mario was close to his level)  

 

His last Art Ross I think he he was minus 30 another in LA despite scoring 130 points lol .. yet despite the minus 30 he was still absolutely still had a positive impact because of his special team add, once you look at that he was still well into the positive side of the ledger.   QHs did that last year to a degree, his first year he was minus 11 or something too, but how many PPG were scored with him on the ice?   Bure ... impact player whose 5 x 5 play was rather neutral...until Florida at least and a couple Vancouver seasons.    And for sure he added value. 

 

  That's the first thing you look at.   After that you just need more context.  Edler  led the league in minus one year too.   Does that mean he's a terrible defenseman?  Of course not, he lost all his support.  It was intentional too, so we could draft someone good.   Chychrun in ARI lol.  How's his plus minus look this season?   Context - easy now but will we remember why later?  OEL left the building. 

[shiznak]

6 hours ago, wai_lai416 said:

lol what's with this constant bashing hughes defensively crap? he's terrible defensively yet he leads the team in +/- he had 1 bad season where the entire team structure wise was crap and you go on and on and on bashing his defensive game. he's on pace to be + 25-30 this year and i guess that's still absolute trash defensive player.

Hughes is a bit of an enigma in his own end. He is almost always roaming around, which makes him get caught out of position a lot. He also doesn’t have the body to win a lot of puck battles along the board. He led the team in high danger scoring chances against and 2nd in scoring chance against at even-strength. 
 

You can see his even strength defense has only improved by 13%, but it’s still below the league’s average percentile.

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, shiznak said:

Hughes is a bit of an enigma in his own end. He is almost always roaming around, which makes him get caught out of position a lot. He also doesn’t have the body to win a lot of puck battles along the board. He led the team in high danger scoring chances against and 2nd in scoring chance against at even-strength. 
 

You can see his even strength defense has only improved by 13%, but it’s still below the league’s average percentile.

Just out of curiosity,  how do they measure EV defence?

[shiznak]

2 hours ago, HKSR said:

Just out of curiosity,  how do they measure EV defence?

The shot quality/quantity of where the opposition shoot the puck.

The chart shows Hughes prevention rate against scoring chances, when he’s on the ice is in the 37% percentile of the league.

 

 

 

 

[wai_lai416]

3 hours ago, shiznak said:

 

The shot quality/quantity of where the opposition shoot the puck.

The chart shows Hughes prevention rate against scoring chances, when he’s on the ice is in the 37% percentile of the league.

 

 

 

 

I look at eye test not analytic stuff. Hughes have been on the ice for almost 25 + mins a game with random D partner all season. He's been fine defensively considering the mins he's been playing. I guess you guys only look at analytic numbers but don't actually look at the quality of players we have on defense.

[shiznak]

19 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

I look at eye test not analytic stuff. Hughes have been on the ice for almost 25 + mins a game with random D partner all season. He's been fine defensively considering the mins he's been playing. I guess you guys only look at analytic numbers but don't actually look at the quality of players we have on defense.

Eye test is just as bad as the “analytic stuff” if it comes from a bias point of view. You’re not going to intentionally slander your own players, because you’re a fan of the team you watch.

[wai_lai416]

2 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Eye test is just as bad as the “analytic stuff” if it comes from a bias point of view. You’re not going to intentionally slander your own players, because you’re a fan of the team you watch.

sure but at least i can see overall he's been fine he occasionally will get beat but he also does enough to recover a lot of time too and at least i get to see who his ever changing partner is at the time and you can see what was the reason for the chance against. not just oh he was on the ice and there's a scoring chance against him.

[Alflives]

24 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Eye test is just as bad as the “analytic stuff” if it comes from a bias point of view. You’re not going to intentionally slander your own players, because you’re a fan of the team you watch.

And why would a fan of another team come to the Csnuck’s home site and belittle our young star, while promoting their team’s young hope?  Trolling is the only reason.

chychscrub is a terrible player.  He’s a total LOSER!  

[NHL97OneTimer]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

chychscrub is a terrible player.  He’s a total LOSER!  

Alf, are you really Trump?  Not just this comment, I'm noticing the orange look and the hair flow too!

[-Vintage Canuck-]

 

[mll]

 

[RWJC]

On 12/29/2021 at 5:42 PM, Alflives said:

And why would a fan of another team come to the Csnuck’s home site and belittle our young star, while promoting their team’s young hope?  Trolling is the only reason.

chychscrub is a terrible player.  He’s a total LOSER!  

Yeah, he's almost as bad as Dumko.

 

Go eat another hairball.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2022 by RWJC

[Tower102]

On 12/29/2021 at 8:42 AM, shiznak said:

Hughes is a bit of an enigma in his own end. He is almost always roaming around, which makes him get caught out of position a lot. He also doesn’t have the body to win a lot of puck battles along the board. He led the team in high danger scoring chances against and 2nd in scoring chance against at even-strength. 
 

You can see his even strength defense has only improved by 13%, but it’s still below the league’s average percentile.

Id like to see last year compared to this year. The fact that this year has bumped his EV defense up by 13% while they are still using last years stats with this years shows he is probably right around league average of 50 this year. I imagine his WAR and offense are right at the top well into the 90s looking at this year alone. 

[-Vintage Canuck-]

According to Darren Dreger, these teams have interest in Jakob Chychrun:

• Kings
• Panthers
• Bruins
• Ducks
• Blues

https://www.tsn.ca/NHL/video/insider-trading-leafs-open-to-acquiring-players-with-term-ahead-~2368755

[JM_]

On 12/29/2021 at 12:51 PM, shiznak said:

 

The shot quality/quantity of where the opposition shoot the puck.

The chart shows Hughes prevention rate against scoring chances, when he’s on the ice is in the 37% percentile of the league.

 

 

what about actual scoring, not just "chances"? does it break it down by pairing, or where Hughes actually was? how do we know it was Hughes and not his partner?

[mll]

Friedman in his 32 Thoughts: 

 

6. It’s grind time for Jakob Chychrun. There are several teams going hard at this. Florida is there for sure, but I'm not convinced they want to move Anton Lundell. I think Columbus is there. Anaheim, Boston and Carolina have been there. I suspect Colorado is in stealth mode. No doubt there are others. My sense is Los Angeles and the Rangers are out for now -- weird stuff happens, you never know. But we’re past the fact-finding stage and we’ll see when it closes.

[aGENT]

2 hours ago, mll said:

Friedman in his 32 Thoughts: 

 

6. It’s grind time for Jakob Chychrun. There are several teams going hard at this. Florida is there for sure, but I'm not convinced they want to move Anton Lundell. I think Columbus is there. Anaheim, Boston and Carolina have been there. I suspect Colorado is in stealth mode. No doubt there are others. My sense is Los Angeles and the Rangers are out for now -- weird stuff happens, you never know. But we’re past the fact-finding stage and we’ll see when it closes.

Boston and Florida make the most sense IMO.

[Warhippy]

Chychrun and Miller are the two hottest items on the market right now.

 

Both for their positions, production and their cap hits/length of term.

 

I'd imagine both command comparable returns with Miller getting a shade more based on his lack of health issues and his importance in every other position on the ice.  So any ask for Chyrchrun will be almost identical of a return for Miller.