How Bad is the Cap - really?

[MikeyD]

41 minutes ago, shazzam said:

OEL - what a parting gift from Benning

I said at the time this trade was gonna kill us. Still plenty of time left but we shall see. I love Garland but damn that contract to absorb is huge. 

[MrCanuck94]

On 2/1/2022 at 11:17 AM, HKSR said:

Funny you made this post because I just did some of this work in the Proposals forum...

 

Here's my take: 

 

EDIT:  I'd like to see what this team is actually capable of with a fresh start to next season.  Presumably covid will be in the rearview mirror, which means Hamonic will be back playing again... that substantially improves the RHD side of the equation.  Clearly we can afford the team we have now if we believe they're the .650 or .700 hockey club they've shown in the past 2 months.

As JR said, we can't be a capped out team as well as a non playoff team. Can they be better? Sure. Is the roster quality close to cup contending quality. Not close.

 

We need to bring in more younger assets with potential that can eventually add value for the dollar through ELC/lower $ amounts as well as finding good value for the dollar players in general through trades and free agency.

[DownUndaCanuck]

I honestly don't see too much of a problem either. In the off-season, we'll have to re-sign Brock (who to be honest has done nothing to deserve a massive contract yet, I think he's in 5.5M bridge contract territory), we'll have to re-sign Motte who rightly so deserves 1.5-2.2M and Highmore who maybe deserves a tiny raise to around 900K-1M. Rathbone can replace Hunt and we've got 3M of Luongo dead cap coming off the books which pretty much writes-off any minor pay rises. Holtby and Virtanen's dead 2.5M comes off next season as well and we're going to need it then when Horvat/Miller/Hoglander's deals are up.

 

For the most part our defence is locked up for a while, our forwards are pretty close too and we can just slot any backup in from the AHL because Demko at 5M is a steal.

 

The real problem with our cap is that the players aren't quite earning their keep or playing to their cap.

 

OEL is great but is he worth 7M considering that's around what Ekblad makes?

Poolman looked much better in Winnipeg than he has so far, is 2.5M too much for a 3rd pairing defenceman?

Is 3.25M too much for Pearson who's scoring at a 10-15 goal, 30 point pace but plays well defensively and kills penalties?

Pettersson's cap hit is 7.3M and he's barely a 20 goal, 40 point player right now.

Brock's cap hit is almost 6M and he's scoring at a 20 goal, 50 point pace, is that too much money?

 

When you look at the good teams like Florida, Carolina and Tampa etc., they are all paying much less and getting much more. I think a lot of that comes down to drafting and coaching - their coaches are really getting the most out of their players. Florida for example basically have 5-8 players in the 2-4M region who are all scoring well above their pay grades.

 

I don't think we have much of a CAP problem anymore, it's more just a player problem where the players aren't playing their best. If Petey's scoring a point per game he's worth 7+M, if OEL is scoring 40-50 points he's worth the same. 2.5M is too much for a bottom pairing defenceman like Poolman, no question about it, but is it that outrageous and ruining this team? Probably not.

[iceman64]

On 2/1/2022 at 11:36 AM, Master Mind said:

The teams that are contenders and looking to add generally don't have much cap space.

 

Or if they do, a cap crunch is coming in the next year or two, so they wouldn't be able to afford a big salary player long term. Not unless that player was going to be part of their core, like Miller would for any team that were to acquire him.

and only a f'n idiot would drop a 6'8 tall Dman that can clear bigger players from out of the crease when especially in the playoff's, that's a battle zone and even Demmer cant save what he can't see. 

However if we keep as the old days and fan favorites, have a smaller team and off'd in the early rounds and no cup, yeah fun stuff.. 

[IBatch]

On 2/3/2022 at 4:13 AM, MikeyD said:

I said at the time this trade was gonna kill us. Still plenty of time left but we shall see. I love Garland but damn that contract to absorb is huge. 

Between the two players the cap is off by maybe 2 million, all of it on OEL really.   What we lost was a 9th overall ... and ARI picked the consensus BPA which would of been us.     That's how the trade will age.    It's not ideal, but eating one million on two important spots isn't going to "kill us".    

[Chris12345]

On 2/3/2022 at 1:13 AM, MikeyD said:

I said at the time this trade was gonna kill us. Still plenty of time left but we shall see. I love Garland but damn that contract to absorb is huge. 

It's interesting because if you had said 6 months ago you'd get eaten alive on here but now some fans are starting to come around to your idea.

[MikeyD]

12 hours ago, Chris12345 said:

It's interesting because if you had said 6 months ago you'd get eaten alive on here but now some fans are starting to come around to your idea.

Yep. Can confirm. Got eaten alive lol. 

 

To be fair I figured Garland would struggle offensively in comparison to Arizona just based on the coaching systems of Travis Green and I thought he'd be signed for a higher dollar amount. Garland turned out to be successful even under Green. 

[Kovalchuk]

On 2/3/2022 at 1:48 AM, DownUndaCanuck said:

I honestly don't see too much of a problem either. In the off-season, we'll have to re-sign Brock (who to be honest has done nothing to deserve a massive contract yet, I think he's in 5.5M bridge contract territory)

 

 

Boeser's QO in 7.5 mil.  He will be making that as a minimum next year.  This could be a large problem

 

OEL and Pettersson have been the ultimate cripplers this season.  15 million for 33 points combined.  Astonishingly bad 

[wai_lai416]

On 2/3/2022 at 1:48 AM, DownUndaCanuck said:

I honestly don't see too much of a problem either. In the off-season, we'll have to re-sign Brock (who to be honest has done nothing to deserve a massive contract yet, I think he's in 5.5M bridge contract territory), we'll have to re-sign Motte who rightly so deserves 1.5-2.2M and Highmore who maybe deserves a tiny raise to around 900K-1M. Rathbone can replace Hunt and we've got 3M of Luongo dead cap coming off the books which pretty much writes-off any minor pay rises. Holtby and Virtanen's dead 2.5M comes off next season as well and we're going to need it then when Horvat/Miller/Hoglander's deals are up.

 

For the most part our defence is locked up for a while, our forwards are pretty close too and we can just slot any backup in from the AHL because Demko at 5M is a steal.

 

The real problem with our cap is that the players aren't quite earning their keep or playing to their cap.

 

OEL is great but is he worth 7M considering that's around what Ekblad makes?

Poolman looked much better in Winnipeg than he has so far, is 2.5M too much for a 3rd pairing defenceman?

Is 3.25M too much for Pearson who's scoring at a 10-15 goal, 30 point pace but plays well defensively and kills penalties?

Pettersson's cap hit is 7.3M and he's barely a 20 goal, 40 point player right now.

Brock's cap hit is almost 6M and he's scoring at a 20 goal, 50 point pace, is that too much money?

 

When you look at the good teams like Florida, Carolina and Tampa etc., they are all paying much less and getting much more. I think a lot of that comes down to drafting and coaching - their coaches are really getting the most out of their players. Florida for example basically have 5-8 players in the 2-4M region who are all scoring well above their pay grades.

 

I don't think we have much of a CAP problem anymore, it's more just a player problem where the players aren't playing their best. If Petey's scoring a point per game he's worth 7+M, if OEL is scoring 40-50 points he's worth the same. 2.5M is too much for a bottom pairing defenceman like Poolman, no question about it, but is it that outrageous and ruining this team? Probably not.

I doubt boeser will sign a 5.5m contract.. bet he will take his 7.5m QO and look for a bounce back season next year before signing a long term.. its not like it'll be any worse than the offers be will get this year if he has a similar season... plus he gets to pick where he wants to go.. those that say well we will just trade him.. well unless those teams are prepared to pay the QO if they can't get him to sign for a lower cap long term contract.. u aint going to get as much as you think for him.

 

[Timråfan]

On 2/1/2022 at 8:17 PM, HKSR said:

Funny you made this post because I just did some of this work in the Proposals forum...

 

Here's my take: 

 

EDIT:  I'd like to see what this team is actually capable of with a fresh start to next season.  Presumably covid will be in the rearview mirror, which means Hamonic will be back playing again... that substantially improves the RHD side of the equation.  Clearly we can afford the team we have now if we believe they're the .650 or .700 hockey club they've shown in the past 2 months.

JR talked about how many backup goalies we met as one reason to BBs great start.

 

So you really think this team can win the Stanley Cup?

 

If not, how do you want to tweak it?

[mikeyman109]

On 2/1/2022 at 11:37 AM, Xanlet said:

The cap is fundamentally unfair because of different tax rates. Canada has quite high income tax, B.C. for example has 20.5% on all income over 227k per year, plus whatever other federal taxes apply. In places like Florida, there is 0% state tax.

 

This results in players receiving much higher take-home pay for lower local tax teams than for higher tax teams. For a player like Pettersson, he likely would have the exact same take-home pay he gets playing for Van at a $7.35m by accepting a $6m cap in Florida and paying way less tax on it.

 

To approach it another way, a larger portion of Van's salary cap goes directly to taxes than a team like Florida (or a lot of other states), meaning Van has less real money to pay players. Remember, players don't care what the number of their official salary is, they care how much money they have after taxes, and agents and teams know this and actively use it to entice players to those teams.

 

A rough, back of the envelope calculation means we are in the neighborhood of an automatic $10m cap disadvantage because of this structuring. I contend that it is basically impossible to overcome such a harsh handicap when the salary cap is flat across all teams.

This has to be addressed in the next CBA. The cap must be after taxes. The current cap gives a very large advantage to the teams in Florida and also a few other states. its like a 10% advantage to some teams

[Chris12345]

1 hour ago, mikeyman109 said:

This has to be addressed in the next CBA. The cap must be after taxes. The current cap gives a very large advantage to the teams in Florida and also a few other states. its like a 10% advantage to some teams

Yea I don't disagree but it's tough. Where do you stop?

 

How about the fact that in Vancouver it rains all the time or a house is stupid expensive? What about the travel schedule? Endorsement opportunities vs Toronto or NYR? 

 

So many disadvantages to playing in Vancouver.

[IBatch]

17 hours ago, Kovalchuk said:

Boeser's QO in 7.5 mil.  He will be making that as a minimum next year.  This could be a large problem

 

OEL and Pettersson have been the ultimate cripplers this season.  15 million for 33 points combined.  Astonishingly bad 

 85% at a minimum if he's taken to arbitration .... he can still sign a reasonable deal for the years after that too...

[Xanlet]

4 hours ago, mikeyman109 said:

This has to be addressed in the next CBA. The cap must be after taxes. The current cap gives a very large advantage to the teams in Florida and also a few other states. its like a 10% advantage to some teams

I agree, it's just such a downer to even follow your favorite team knowing this is the case. And it has real consequences, Brayden Point came off a 41 goal, 92 point season and signed for $6.75m per, 3 year deal in Tampa in 2019. Pettersson had far inferior statistical numbers (never cracking 30 goals in a year, and only reaching a high of 66 points in a year) yet signs a 3 year deal at $7.35m per. These two contracts are very comparable, since the cap hasn't changed much due to covid. Plus, Tampa wasn't even content to have a tax advantage, they had to circumvent the cap with the injury reserve so that their playoff roster was something like $15m over the usual cap. Just an absolute circus of a league, enough to break your heart.

[mikeyman109]

11 hours ago, Chris12345 said:

Yea I don't disagree but it's tough. Where do you stop?

 

How about the fact that in Vancouver it rains all the time or a house is stupid expensive? What about the travel schedule? Endorsement opportunities vs Toronto or NYR? 

 

So many disadvantages to playing in Vancouver.

try playing in Edmonton

[Alflives]

11 hours ago, Chris12345 said:

Yea I don't disagree but it's tough. Where do you stop?

 

How about the fact that in Vancouver it rains all the time or a house is stupid expensive? What about the travel schedule? Endorsement opportunities vs Toronto or NYR? 

 

So many disadvantages to playing in Vancouver.

Have you been to the Big Smoke and the Big Apple recently?  That smoke is toxic, and the apple is full of worms.  

[IBatch]

8 hours ago, Xanlet said:

I agree, it's just such a downer to even follow your favorite team knowing this is the case. And it has real consequences, Brayden Point came off a 41 goal, 92 point season and signed for $6.75m per, 3 year deal in Tampa in 2019. Pettersson had far inferior statistical numbers (never cracking 30 goals in a year, and only reaching a high of 66 points in a year) yet signs a 3 year deal at $7.35m per. These two contracts are very comparable, since the cap hasn't changed much due to covid. Plus, Tampa wasn't even content to have a tax advantage, they had to circumvent the cap with the injury reserve so that their playoff roster was something like $15m over the usual cap. Just an absolute circus of a league, enough to break your heart.

It's actually 36.4 - 53%.   That's 16.6% difference from top (five teams) to bottom (VAN/MTL/TO/OTT).    Yes there are a lot of teams inbetween and the CALI and NY teams have jock tax which puts them in the same range as the Alberta teams and actually where we were ahead for a couple years during the peak Sedin era (7th least taxed team in the league - back then only had the Florida teams with no state tax)... Now it's just too much difference.    I've been beating this drum for quite sometime now.   Galvin group makes it easy for any NHL player or fan to take a peak at what their take home pay might look like.   It's rather shocking.   Miller has lost 2 million to taxes almost by the end of this season (ok less because of escrow - but if he was getting his full non-covid pay...and with covid he's also lost another big chunk)  ... and folks bring up he hasn't bought a house yet.   

 

Maybe we re-sign him, maybe we don't. Actually feel even odds - being the top dog might play into it.   Nice being the top dog - was that for 15 years myself and it feels great.   Aside from that yes the league should consider this.   It's a considerable advantage to five teams.  And a considerable disadvantage to most Canadian teams.   Even the least taxed ones it's still over 10% (Alberta ones).  

[Chris12345]

11 hours ago, Alflives said:

Have you been to the Big Smoke and the Big Apple recently?  That smoke is toxic, and the apple is full of worms.  

Yea not BC....no smoke here haha

[Chris12345]

11 hours ago, mikeyman109 said:

try playing in Edmonton

Which is one reason they suck.