Would you re-sign JT Miller to a 7.5m/7yrs extension?

[Harold Drunken]

15 hours ago, Coconuts said:

You're dreaming if you think you're getting Miller for anything less than 8.5M per. 

 

You're also dreaming if you think you're getting him for anything less than seven years. 

 

He'll easily get 9M or more and seven years via UFA. 

Nah, he's turning 29 next week, teams don't often pay players that kind of money into their late 30's.  5-6 years is what he'll get, Miller would be 36-37 when that contract expires I don't think a team is going to bite on that long of term.

[IBatch]

6 minutes ago, Harold Drunken said:

No matter how much we love Miller the fact is you don't sign a 29 years old player to a 7-8 year deal. You don't want to be paying a 37 year old player that kind of money. Some do, bto those are rare cases. I hope this management can learn from previous regimes mistakes about signing players into their late 30's...it rarely works out. 

Would you sign him to a six or seven year deal?!! It happens all the time .... most UFAs are 28-29 when they sign on for 7-8 years.   AP was also 30.   And Miller is close to equal value given he plays all 3 forward positions. 

 

Edit:  For me i would not.   If Naslund/Sedins/Linden couldn't keep it up - why should we expect Miller too?  Or Smyl for that matter. 

 

Edit:  What i would do is something like 8 x 5.   That's about it. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by IBatch

[stawns]

4 minutes ago, Harold Drunken said:

Nah, he's turning 29 next week, teams don't often pay players that kind of money into their late 30's.  5-6 years is what he'll get, Miller would be 36-37 when that contract expires I don't think a team is going to bite on that long of term.

Zibinajad is a year younger and starts an 8 years, $8.5m deal next season

[IBatch]

6 minutes ago, Harold Drunken said:

Nah, he's turning 29 next week, teams don't often pay players that kind of money into their late 30's.  5-6 years is what he'll get, Miller would be 36-37 when that contract expires I don't think a team is going to bite on that long of term.

Thing is they sign guys like Duchene,  Skinner etc ... so some team could go there.   As in taking Miller on until he's 36/37 including us. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

1 minute ago, stawns said:

Zibinajad is a year younger and starts an 8 years, $8.5m deal next season

Glad somebody is paying attention. 

[Coconuts]

10 minutes ago, Harold Drunken said:

Nah, he's turning 29 next week, teams don't often pay players that kind of money into their late 30's.  5-6 years is what he'll get, Miller would be 36-37 when that contract expires I don't think a team is going to bite on that long of term.

I figure you might just be surprised, I fully expect him to get 7-8 years because if that's what it takes someone will ante up

 

That's UFA, if he walks to UFA he'll likely be the top forward available and teams go a bit nuts with UFA's

 

Top players will always get paid via UFA

 

Hell, Duchene got 8x7 and Panarin got 11.6x7 in 2019, they were the last top forwards to get to UFA, Miller is most certainly worth more than Duchene so somewhere around 8.5-9.25x7 is my guess

 

Maybe more if a team reaaaallly wants him

Edited March 9, 2022 by Coconuts

[IBatch]

2 minutes ago, stawns said:

Zibinajad is a year younger and starts an 8 years, $8.5m deal next season

And you can bet - that Miller wants to stay a Canuck next season - and absolutely cash out.   I've been very aware of this since Keith Tkchuck.   And others.  These guys want their legacy deals and why the heck wouldn't they?  The only thing that would ruin that for him is if he wasn't injured and scored 50ish points next year.   Heck Hayes who'd never scored much more then that got what - 7 x 7? 

[Boudrias]

IMO moving Miller for a significant return is the safest option. Resign Boeser with no restrictions on movement. He. can then be traded later if opportunities arise. Build around Demko, Hughes and Petey. This doesn’t have to be a complete tear down but the d-side has to be improved. Miller being traded should go a long way to helping the backend.

[Goal:thecup]

8 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

A late round pick in the first round and some scraps is a Trevor Linden type deal?  We got Bertuzzi, McCabe and a 3rd round pick.  Bertuzzi is arguably our greatest power forward ever.

FTFY - Otherwise, I completely agree.

McCabe was no slouch either; big, tough, and talented.

Hated Keenan, hated Messier, hated trading Trev, but this was a great trade.

[IBatch]

3 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

I figure you might just be surprised, I fully expect him to get 7-8 years because if that's what it takes someone will ante up

 

That's UFA, if he walks to UFA he'll likely be the top forward available and teams go a bit nuts with UFA's

 

Top players will always get paid via UFA

 

Hell, Duchene got 8x7 and Panarin got 11.6x7 in 2019, they were the last top forwards to get to UFA, Miller is most certainly worth more than Duchene so somewhere around 8.5-9.25x7 is my guess

 

Maybe more if a team reaaaallly wants him

Yep.  Kevin Hayes .. Duchene.  Skinner.  Okposo, Ladd, LE, Foligno and a whole pile before them.   It's not often that a high profile UFA actually earns their paycheque.   The ones that do are like Garland, TT etc.   

[Coconuts]

3 minutes ago, IBatch said:

And you can bet - that Miller wants to stay a Canuck next season - and absolutely cash out.   I've been very aware of this since Keith Tkchuck.   And others.  These guys want their legacy deals and why the heck wouldn't they?  The only thing that would ruin that for him is if he wasn't injured and scored 50ish points next year.   Heck Hayes who'd never scored much more then that got what - 7 x 7? 

Fans clamor about how their top guys will take discounts every year and they almost never do 

 

Top guys get paid, the Canucks likely don't get the discount some are hoping for 

[Sativika]

Not that J.T. Miller is of the same caliber as a Crosby, McDavid, Mathews, or MacKinnon, but to us, he's pretty much that. 

Sure. He wasn't a 1st overall as the above, but he's still a 1st rounder. As mentioned by hockey pundits, dude is another Kesler.

 

J.T.'s value as such pretty much mirrors Kesler in every way. Heart 'n' soul with talent and offensive prowess. Too valuable to trade him for cap reasons. Trading for roster players, prospect, and picks seems sensible in return, but J.T.'s with us now and next season; perhaps beyond. Let's not f#ck with what works.

[IBatch]

19 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Fans clamor about how their top guys will take discounts every year and they almost never do 

 

Top guys get paid, the Canucks likely don't get the discount some are hoping for 

Even our fans think that our MG era guys took a discount.   It took a lot of shenanigans to sign Luongo.   And the Sedins weren't superstars just blue chippers for a couple seasons.  Kesler looked good ... Bieksa at 5 after a couple of good seasons when the cap was what? 59.5 - 64.5?   They balanced the books with guys like Higgins and Burrows (but not for long on Burrows but again he earned his legacy deal for sure!) ... 

 

To me it's all about cap percentages.  Is Miller worth 10% of the cap?  Weren't the Sedins signed at over that x 2 after a couple years but sure a little younger?  Miller doesn't have the pedigree but is sure playing like one of them did anyways.   The difference is - we aren't creating a championship team right now are we.   I see some similarities with when Luongo came in.   But we haven't bottomed out enough so it's going to take some amazing trades to push us over the edge like Quin level stuff. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by IBatch

[IBatch]

12 minutes ago, Sativika said:

Not that J.T. Miller is of the same caliber as a Crosby, McDavid, Mathews, or MacKinnon, but to us, he's pretty much that. 

Sure. He wasn't a 1st overall as the above, but he's still a 1st rounder. As mentioned by hockey pundits, dude is another Kesler.

 

J.T.'s value as such pretty much mirrors Kesler in every way. Heart 'n' soul with talent and offensive prowess. Too valuable to trade him for cap reasons. Trading for roster players, prospect, and picks seems sensible in return, but J.T.'s with us now and next season; perhaps beyond. Let's not f#ck with what works.

Kesler was better in his prime of course. Wouldn't saddle Miller with that yet.   If he's comping Kesler then he should take a similar deal.   Percentage wise that is.  What was it again?   7.26 ... for six years.  In todays cap hit at 82.5. 

Edited March 9, 2022 by IBatch

[rychicken]

I would if I could get proper return for trading Boeser and Horvat

[Coconuts]

49 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Even our fans think that our MG era guys took a discount.   It took a lot of shenanigans to sign Luongo.   And the Sedins weren't superstars just blue chippers for a couple seasons.  Kesler looked good ... Bieksa at 5 after a couple of good seasons when the cap was what? 59.5 - 64.5?   They balanced the books with guys like Higgins and Burrows (but not for long on Burrows but again he earned his legacy deal for sure!) ... 

 

To me it's all about cap percentages.  Is Miller worth 10% of the cap?  Weren't the Sedins signed at over that x 2 after a couple years but sure a little younger?  Miller doesn't have the pedigree but is sure playing like one of them did anyways.   The difference is - we aren't creating a championship team right now are we.   I see some similarities with when Luongo came in.   But we haven't bottomed out enough so it's going to take some amazing trades to push us over the edge like Quin level stuff. 

Nope, we're likely further away than people think. It won't likely be a 2-3 year turnaround, teams don't generally jump from mediocre right to contention.

 

It took Tampa, Washington, and St. Louis years to break through. Colorado is still trying to. We likely suffer before we get deep, I know what JR said but I strongly doubt we're two years away from contending.

 

Could we compete for the playoffs? That's something else entirely 

 

45 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Kesler was better in his prime of course. Wouldn't saddle Miller with that yet.   If he's comping Kesler then he should take a similar deal.   Percentage wise that is.  What was it again?   7.26 ... for six years.  In todays cap hit at 82.5. 

Kesler was def better, and a more complete player. 

[DSVII]

That price is literally bordering almost worth keeping him. But in the long term I'd like to see what he can get us next TDL.

 

[Elias Pettersson]

3 hours ago, stawns said:

Where did I mention where the linden deal was scraps?  You said a deal like that couldn't happen, I said it easily could and that the toffoli deal was an example, just at a lower tier.

 

 

What I meant was the Toffoli deal isn’t anywhere near the Linden type deal. Montreal isn’t getting much quality in that deal. Those type of deals can easily be made in this market. 
 

However there are no Bertuzzi’s out there for sale. Braden Schneider and a 1st sounds intriguing, but when you take a closer look at that deal you are getting a late first and a potential top 4 RHD for one of the top 20 players in the NHL. 
 

Unless it’s a Kings ransom and a Bertuzzi comes the other way trading Miller doesn’t make a lot of sense. Just pay the man. 

[Goal:thecup]

I can't seem to shake this idea, perhaps bear with me for a bit, then tear it apart.

 

We paid a 1st for JT; plus a 3rd and a goalie prospect; basically far less than his value considering his contract.

We got a killer deal on a player that grew our team and played at a level almost double the cost of his AAV.

At that time he was 26 years old; 6'1" 218 lbs; plays all 3 fwd positions; signed to 'no-clause' 4 year deal at 5.5.

I don't think anybody denies that this was a very good trade for us.

 

The problem is now the age of the player at renewal, the term that will include overpaid/underperforming cap-munching years, and his new-found-much-higher- probable AAV.

The other prong is the loss of potential new assets if he plays out his contract and signs elsewhere.

What I am grappling with is the idea that the trade that brought JT to us, just straight up, was worth more than the cost.

Maybe we should try to make another deal like that, trade another 1st plus, and let expensive older players walk to UFA.

(This would only be done if JT showed so well in this year's playoffs that we are willing to keep him for next year, at the cost of those potential futures.)

 

4 years of JT for 22 million, when he has been worth about 8 or 9 million AAV or 32 - 36 million; so a savings of about 12 million.

This is also a savings in cap room of course, which is even more important.

There is also the undiscussed opportunity cost of trading JT now or at next TDL.

That is, what is the true cost of trading away our (currently) top player?

 

What if we let him walk?

We will have had those great 4 years, dollar and cap savings, 2 more whacks at The Cup, etc.

We get cap room but a big hole in the lineup where JT used to be.

I don't think we should sign anybody to a contract that still pays top bucks when they reach (say) 35, 36.

 

Ok, enough preamble, here goes:

I think we are over-rating 1st round draft picks.

We should be looking to package up our 1st with some of our prospects and get another player on a controlled good cost contract.

This is where the true value of JT Miller originated; finding a player on a good contract and sacrificing a 1st (plus spare change).

 

The whole draft and develop pipeline thing is not very productive if you just sit on it.

You have to work it and develop and cut guys loose and add and subtract from it.

We shouldn't be looking to win in 4 years or whatever it takes to translate a pick into a player.

We should be looking to win every year.

And that starts by Winning Now.

 

Start doing the math, say you draft a Petey, you get your early discount year(s), then a high bridge deal, then a whopping contract.

So we have to avoid signing our old favorites to long-term 'thank you' contracts that leave us cap-strapped for years and years.

We have to be willing to let these guys go and not tie up cap into their late 30s; if they won't sign, so be it.

 

The thing here is, we don't have to let Miller go NOW.

We don't have to open up a gaping hole in our whole team construct.

When we have good success this year, and adjust the team over the summer, we will be in a great position to, rinse and repeat.

 

I do not think we should sign any UFAs at all, ever, so if Miller doesn't want an extension this summer that fits our parameters, we make the 'trade or let walk' decision then.

Miller will be able to re-evaluate his position with this team in light of the success he had, and we have had, and are about to have.

If he wants to get to UFA and wants to get (OVER)PAID, then we trade him or let him walk.

 

After we do very well in the playoffs this year, and every year thereafter, we can get more for aging players with their new playoff reputations.

And we can recover draft picks and prospects with those trades.

We just have to start thinking SOONER rather than some point down the road waiting for prospects to develop, cap to clear, etc.

 

It is time to WIN THE CUP (or at least threaten to do so in the playoffs for now).

The attitude that this team is not ready yet or good enough has to stop.

You do not build a team by constantly undermining their good efforts.

 

We have shown we can beat any team in the league, that we are winning more than almost any other team, and we are still improving.

I don't really mind if management makes some adjustments by the TDL.

But we should be buyers and sellers, not just dumping our top players for the future.

 

I say sell our 1st, 2nds, plus, and get help at a couple spots (imo, RHD, and Fast, Brutal 4th line wingers) and bulk up for The Run.

We will find it much easier to rebuild the pipeline once we are perennial Winners.

And we will get more for our aging stars and favorites and be better able to protect our cap space.

 

For now, just win baby.

As long as that holds, only trades that help us win NOW should be considered for this valiant group of warriors.

I think everybody is just trade-thirsty because new mngt came in and did not make any moves.

 

Other top teams have several very highly paid top stars, but little balance.

Some like Tampa have it all; but that is where WE want to be.

Imagine being able to let a player like JT on a great contract go, cuz the team is just that good.

Once we're that good, we can pick up draft picks and prospects just trimming the roster.

 

I think JR & Co & BB know our players pretty good now and are just laying in the weeds waiting for prey.

If the team keeps winning, they will be content to make most major moves after this year's TDL (basically after the playoffs).

If the team falters and falls too far back, then I expect larger moves like perhaps Miller, Boeser, OEL, basically big cap hits to be on the table.

If the teams proves it can not only make the playoffs, but make some noise there, then I think we should just tweak the roster for The Run.

 

By the time JR & Co get done with their changes, say after 2022 training camp, we will see a competitive team with cap space left for maneuvering.

I think they should use our pipeline and picks to get another good player on a contract like JT's to bulk up the boys for next year's Run, or even this year is possible.

Short term, I say, Sell The Farm. 

Just don't pick up expensive contracts, or sign UFAs at all. 

Ok, I'm done.

 

 

 

 

 

[stawns]

34 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

What I meant was the Toffoli deal isn’t anywhere near the Linden type deal. Montreal isn’t getting much quality in that deal. Those type of deals can easily be made in this market. 
 

However there are no Bertuzzi’s out there for sale. Braden Schneider and a 1st sounds intriguing, but when you take a closer look at that deal you are getting a late first and a potential top 4 RHD for one of the top 20 players in the NHL. 
 

Unless it’s a Kings ransom and a Bertuzzi comes the other way trading Miller doesn’t make a lot of sense. Just pay the man. 

I agree, but it would be a similar deal to a MIller one in that about the same number of pieces to juggle