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Who Stays and Who Goes

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2 hours ago, Alflives said:

 We don’t want to go anywhere near the embarrassment that is a Tavares - like contract.  Is there a worse contract in the league than Tavares?   

Tavares is a hell of a player and is worth what hes getting paid.  Everyone understsnds that when teams sign players to these contracts they will be overpaying in the latter yrs. Its not rocket science at this point.

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2 hours ago, Alflives said:

 We don’t want to go anywhere near the embarrassment that is a Tavares - like contract.  Is there a worse contract in the league than Tavares?   

The $10 million goalies will age poorly, and in Price's case, has aged poorly (Bobrovsky and Price)

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2 hours ago, D.B Cooper said:

I think it would be insane to keep Miller. 
Ignoring the return, that would be franchise changing and pretty well restock our prospect pool instantly……

 

Miller won’t be able to hold this level for more than 1-2 seasons.  
He hopefully declines slow, but he is still in the prime and almost 30.   
We will have to pay him for what he is doing right now, and he has zero reason to take anything less than what he wants.  

He is going to want a long term deal. 

HUGE red flag.    
This team has been through the overpaid aging vet thing time after time.   
Miller at 9x6,7,8 will only be good for hopefully the first year and maybe the 2nd. (He will be over 30 when it kicks in. Prime years gone)

Yes the cap will go up and yadda yadda yadda. 
By that time when he is overpaid and declining, our young guys are hitting their prime and ready to compete.  
That huge cap space will be needed to sign young guys to their first good contracts, raise for Petey, signing players to build around the young core.  

50-60 points at 9mill is a bad look for any team. It’s going to be years of 40-50 and 30-40 on that contract for 9mill as well. 
When he is 36, 37 and still with that huge cap hit, we are going to look dumb.  
 

We are in no position to sign 30 year olds to career finisher contracts.  
We aren’t close to challenging.  
 

Make the Miller trade, get a top young RHD and a 1st +.   
Trade Boeser for whatever scraps you can get for him. (His QO and the fact that he sucks this year says he isn’t worth much)

Keep Garland. He is young enough and cheap.  
Use saved Miller money for top 6 wing and #6 LHD

 

 

 

Not completely insane, but you must trade one of OEL, Myers or Boeser to facilitate keeping JT. 

 

That 8x8 SJ gave to Hertl doesn't give me any comfort either, so unless JT is on board for a discount I'm for trading him.

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7 minutes ago, DSVII said:

Not completely insane, but you must trade one of OEL, Myers or Boeser to facilitate keeping JT. 

 

That 8x8 SJ gave to Hertl doesn't give me any comfort either, so unless JT is on board for a discount I'm for trading him.

Even if you trade someone else, that doesnt make the Miller contract any cheaper, or make Miller any younger.  
This contract is 100% guaranteed to be awful for at least 3 years, but probably closer to 5 of 8.   
Unless you are flirting with 100 points every year, you shouldn’t be making 9 mill.  
 

Today, Miller is more valuable than Hertl and won’t be signing for any less.  
I’m guessing he will want 9millx 7-8 years.  

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4 hours ago, EddieVedder said:

Hes 25 but plays like hes 35.  Worst skater in the league

A gross exageration. But of our high cap forwards Boeser would be my first choice to move despite being the second youngest. But that has more to do with overall game rather than just speed or production. Some have argued moving Garland over Boeser. I believe that would be foolish and not just because Garland will be cheaper for the next for the next four years. That's just a great big cherry on top. Here's some interesting stats among our forward group:

 

This season Boeser only has 3 more points than Garland despite 77 more minutes of PP time and 44 minutes of ES time. Meaning Boeser has played two hours more despite playing 1 game less than Garland.

 

Even strength production per 60 minutes played:

Garland leads all forwards in goals and assists slightly ahead of Miller in both

Pearson is 3rd in points per 60 ES minutes

Boeser is 10th in ES goals and 11th in ES points per 60 minutes.

Highmore is the opposite at 11th in ES goals and 10th in ES points per 60 minutes.

Motte, Podz, Hoglander and Lammiko all produce more ES points per 60 minutes

 

Garland leads all forwards in penalties drawn per 60 minutes just ahead of Pettersson.

Boeser is 13th in penalties drawn per 60 mites.

Pettersson leads all forwards in drawn penalties to taken penalties 26-4

Garland is 2nd for drawn to taken ratio at 26-11

For comaprison Pearson is third at 15-11

Boeser is 9-7 tied at fourth with Chaison at +2

When translated to diferential per 60 minutes played Petterson, Garland and Pearson remain 1, 2 & 3 among regulars

Boeser drops to 6th behind Chaison and Highmore 

 

Neither Garland nor Boeser are particularly physical. Sitting 13 and 16th respectively in hits per 60.

Dickenson and Motte are 1 and 2 respectively

Miller is 3rd and Pearson 9th (just behind Highmore and ahead of Horvat)

 

I know many discount +/- but...

Garland leads all forwards at +13

Foilowed by Miler +10 and Pearson +9

Boeser is 17th at -6

Only Hoglander is worse at -7

 

Bang for the buck, Garland is just more valuable to me and costs less. At very least Boeser should probably supply more physically considering he's 6'1 208 lbs. He has a considerable size advantage over Garland but doesn't use it. Garland is faster, better defensively, and simply does more with his ice time. It begs the question, how much more can Garland provide if given greater opportunity with Boeser moved? And if Garland moves up it also means greater opportunity for Podz who produces more Boeser at ES and is more physical than Pearson and Horvat. We can afford to move a high cap forward and Boeser would be my first choice as I don't think he provides enough beyond points.

 

 

 

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10 hours ago, Alflives said:

 We don’t want to go anywhere near the embarrassment that is a Tavares - like contract.  Is there a worse contract in the league than Tavares?   

Yes, Tavares has an embarrassing 57 points in 59 games this season. I can think of several worse contracts.

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6 hours ago, Baggins said:

A gross exageration. But of our high cap forwards Boeser would be my first choice to move despite being the second youngest. But that has more to do with overall game rather than just speed or production. Some have argued moving Garland over Boeser. I believe that would be foolish and not just because Garland will be cheaper for the next for the next four years. That's just a great big cherry on top. Here's some interesting stats among our forward group:

 

This season Boeser only has 3 more points than Garland despite 77 more minutes of PP time and 44 minutes of ES time. Meaning Boeser has played two hours more despite playing 1 game less than Garland.

 

Even strength production per 60 minutes played:

Garland leads all forwards in goals and assists slightly ahead of Miller in both

Pearson is 3rd in points per 60 ES minutes

Boeser is 10th in ES goals and 11th in ES points per 60 minutes.

Highmore is the opposite at 11th in ES goals and 10th in ES points per 60 minutes.

Motte, Podz, Hoglander and Lammiko all produce more ES points per 60 minutes

 

Garland leads all forwards in penalties drawn per 60 minutes just ahead of Pettersson.

Boeser is 13th in penalties drawn per 60 mites.

Pettersson leads all forwards in drawn penalties to taken penalties 26-4

Garland is 2nd for drawn to taken ratio at 26-11

For comaprison Pearson is third at 15-11

Boeser is 9-7 tied at fourth with Chaison at +2

When translated to diferential per 60 minutes played Petterson, Garland and Pearson remain 1, 2 & 3 among regulars

Boeser drops to 6th behind Chaison and Highmore 

 

Neither Garland nor Boeser are particularly physical. Sitting 13 and 16th respectively in hits per 60.

Dickenson and Motte are 1 and 2 respectively

Miller is 3rd and Pearson 9th (just behind Highmore and ahead of Horvat)

 

I know many discount +/- but...

Garland leads all forwards at +13

Foilowed by Miler +10 and Pearson +9

Boeser is 17th at -6

Only Hoglander is worse at -7

 

Bang for the buck, Garland is just more valuable to me and costs less. At very least Boeser should probably supply more physically considering he's 6'1 208 lbs. He has a considerable size advantage over Garland but doesn't use it. Garland is faster, better defensively, and simply does more with his ice time. It begs the question, how much more can Garland provide if given greater opportunity with Boeser moved? And if Garland moves up it also means greater opportunity for Podz who produces more Boeser at ES and is more physical than Pearson and Horvat. We can afford to move a high cap forward and Boeser would be my first choice as I don't think he provides enough beyond points.

 

 

 

Thanks for proving my point for me.

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Lot of options out there. What I'd like: we re-sign Miller to a convenient deal, re-sign Boeser to a bridge deal and see what he can do (and if he's similar next year, try a trade), keep Motte and keep Myers, move Poolman, Halak and Dickinson. There's got to be a sneaky way to make it all fit cap-wise.

 

I worry we might get a trade, wether Brock or Garland for a young right defenceman which sounds great but I worry the defenceman coming back won't be as solid as we all hope (eg. Schneider). I also worry Motte might get shipped off for just a 2nd or 3rd round pick and we can't find a way to keep him happy cap-wise. I doubt Miller or Myers gets moved.

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1 hour ago, EddieVedder said:

Wtf? Price took the habs to the finals just last yr.  Get ur memory checked dude.

This is a results driven business. You need to forecast where you will be going forward. Would you take him on your team today for the next 5 years at 10 mil?

 

You gotta have perspective when evaluating your team  One great run in a once-in-a-lifetime pandemic conditions does not equal sustained success in a regular season. As our bubble run and the Habs today show. 

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.............just a suggestion for next time, that at this point it might have been easier to simply ask: "who stays".    IMO, only three players are keepers (you know who they are).  Everyone else should be "shopped around" to see what we can get for them, as this assembly of players will never get the job done.   It's been over a decade since we've had success and it aint gonna happen with this current assembly of incompatible "Ardvark" players that Uncle Jim hobbled together.

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9 minutes ago, RU SERIOUS said:

.............just a suggestion for next time, that at this point it might have been easier to simply ask: "who stays".    IMO, only three players are keepers (you know who they are).  Everyone else should be "shopped around" to see what we can get for them, as this assembly of players will never get the job done.   It's been over a decade since we've had success and it aint gonna happen with this current assembly of incompatible "Ardvark" players that Uncle Jim hobbled together.

 

I think they're 22-10-5 under Bruce.  That's a pretty good testament to this group of players.  I'd listen to offers on anybody other than Hughes and Demko but since jettisoning Green the signs are quite promising.

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On 3/18/2022 at 4:13 AM, Kevin Biestra said:

 

I think they're 22-10-5 under Bruce.  That's a pretty good testament to this group of players.  I'd listen to offers on anybody other than Hughes and Demko but since jettisoning Green the signs are quite promising.

edmonton is 17-7-2 under the new coach.. does that mean it was tippett that was the issue? and not the defense and goaltending?

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