We do not need to tear it down OR make big trades

[Alflives]

50 minutes ago, King Heffy said:

Looks pretty happy here:

Not so happy growing up though.  So sad:(

[aGENT]

12 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Late first territory is actually tweener 150 or so NHL games though ...  as in not a bust...again people overrate picks all the time on this site.   NHL scouts consider 200 NHL games as a win past 20 

And like I said, I don't consider him a "bust". Should have been picked about 20thOA +/-, not 10th. He wasn't worth a top 10 or even 15 pick in that draft.

[IBatch]

27 minutes ago, aGENT said:

And like I said, I don't consider him a "bust". Should have been picked about 20thOA +/-, not 10th. He wasn't worth a top 10 or even 15 pick in that draft.

OJ wasn't either.   Said it at the time.   Slid way up after the juniors ... actually Bouchard had better stats his draft year then both OJ's draft year (on a loaded London team) and OJ's draft plus one year.    I'm going to hold you to it.    Bouchard was ranked in the mid to top ten by most prospect sites.   ISS and THN had him around 6-7 ... where we picked.   Some had him a little higher some a little lower so not sure where you had the foresight to decide he wasn't in the top 15.   But that's ok.  I had the same foresight with OJ.   Only 10 guys have more points then Bouchard ... most are forwards. 

Edited May 28, 2022 by IBatch

[Hairy Kneel]

On 5/23/2022 at 4:31 PM, Chris12345 said:

I agree, we need some big, tough, scary dudes.

 

At least 1 more on d and 2 more on F.

 

Go for 3 ufa's, add Paul, switch Burrs to the 4th line, add Brown and Zadarov on d.

The comfort level for our skill guys go up.

 

[IBatch]

32 minutes ago, aGENT said:

And like I said, I don't consider him a "bust". Should have been picked about 20thOA +/-, not 10th. He wasn't worth a top 10 or even 15 pick in that draft.

I can't tell if your serious.   Anyways for me it's a bit of a win... he's the guy i wanted.   Aside from Podz who i prayed to the hockey gods the week before the draft to slip to us - there wasn't one guy during the JB era i would have picked.   

[Chris12345]

2 hours ago, Hairy Kneel said:

Go for 3 ufa's, add Paul, switch Burrs to the 4th line, add Brown and Zadarov on d.

The comfort level for our skill guys go up.

 

I like Deslauriers and Murphy but I don't think Murphy plays big.

[Chris12345]

3 hours ago, IBatch said:

Late first territory is actually tweener 150 or so NHL games though ...  as in not a bust...again people overrate picks all the time on this site.   NHL scouts consider 200 NHL games as a win past 20 

Overrated on here...never. Motte for a first lmao.

 

300 nhl games is a decent career.

[IBatch]

21 hours ago, Chris12345 said:

Overrated on here...never. Motte for a first lmao.

 

300 nhl games is a decent career.

Said this before and getting kind of tired of doing it but will again just for fun:

 

NHL scouts want this from first rounders, and it doesn't mean they will actually get it because the odds are they probably won't: 

 

1-3 overall 700 games 

4-5  overall 500 games 

6-10 400 games 

11-15  300 games

Past that 200 in the first round if they can get it.     Past 22nd or so right until almost the end of the second round actual odds are 50/50 if they will make it to only 100 games.     People constantly think top ten picks work out.   Sure some do - some are HHOFers even ... but there are usually a couple of busts.  

 

There are some great university studies on the draft worth checking out.   12.5% of the third round makes it 100 NHL games for example - and the entirety of the rounds past it combined come down to the same math - 12.5% there abouts overall.   And that's not even a roster player lol.   Just a tweener like AG who makes it.   JV almost made the cut and he gets bashed as a dud (well he was given his personal life - but on the ice - not nearly as bad as people think he was ...just average for a 6th overall... surely he'd have passed the 400 game mark without covid and last year ...)....  

 

Chris Phillips and Jovo ... were they busts?  Absolutely not.   Actually above average first overalls both of them.   Guys like Stepan, Yakupov and Daigle  and others lower the curve for sure .but still played.   Every single year this site goes absolutely bananas over the next consensus first overall and willing to give up the farm for him.   Seen it every year last 8 years anyways.   Mathews.   Dahlin.  Patrick lol...or Hirshier or Kakko or Jack Hughes blah blah blah Lafrenierre or whomever whomever whomever is next.    Funny thing is - it's pretty funny looking back at re-drafts a decade later and who should go where.    You can't even come close to getting it for a least five years anyways.   Guys get injured.   Other guys pull a Marchand or Tim Thomas and become elite later.   And other guys pull a Tim Kerr - destined for the HHOF and then get injured and are done.  

 

Edit: BTW each year GMs go into the draft expecting one roster player and hoping for two .... not talking about tweeners like Vey, AG, Bear etc - but ones that will play some games and have a decent career.    The ones who get the most chances absolutely are the first and second rounders ... guys like Motte and Garland have to fight tooth and nail to make the show. 

Edited May 29, 2022 by IBatch

[Fred65]

The figures I've seen suggest that 60% of first rounder make to the NHL (100 games) however what interest me is if you remove the first 5 picks what would be the average for the remaing first rounders, I suspect way less than 60% ?

[Baggins]

On 5/28/2022 at 5:31 PM, Chris12345 said:

Overrated on here...never. Motte for a first lmao.

 

300 nhl games is a decent career.

200 games is considered a successful career as that's the magic number to receive an NHL pension.

[EddieVedder]

On 5/28/2022 at 5:27 PM, Chris12345 said:

I like Deslauriers and Murphy but I don't think Murphy plays big.

Hope you dont mean connor murphy.  The guy is a ditz and known as a $&!# teammate

[awalk]

Watching the playoffs, I think we do need a couple of bold moves. We're a couple of important players short of being a contender, with almost no cap space or assets to add said pieces. Difficult situation, and we're all going to have to be ... ugh... patient... 

[higgyfan]

18 minutes ago, awalk said:

Watching the playoffs, I think we do need a couple of bold moves. We're a couple of important players short of being a contender, with almost no cap space or assets to add said pieces. Difficult situation, and we're all going to have to be ... ugh... patient... 

I think they can free up some cap space and reinvest in a couple of much-needed players; either in trade or UFA.  We

need speedy, scrappy and tenacious players.  Hopefully that comes in the form of filling some of the team's holes,

such as; RD, 3C and  a W (if one of our forwards is traded.

 

It is a difficult situation for sure and I don't expect them to be contenders for a while yet.  I do think they could find

themselves in the playoffs next season, which is essential experience for team development.

[Alflives]

42 minutes ago, higgyfan said:

I think they can free up some cap space and reinvest in a couple of much-needed players; either in trade or UFA.  We

need speedy, scrappy and tenacious players.  Hopefully that comes in the form of filling some of the team's holes,

such as; RD, 3C and  a W (if one of our forwards is traded.

 

It is a difficult situation for sure and I don't expect them to be contenders for a while yet.  I do think they could find

themselves in the playoffs next season, which is essential experience for team development.

Love for us to get a high end D partner (like Toews is for Makar) to allow Hughes to open up his game.  

[mll]

On 5/30/2022 at 12:23 AM, Fred65 said:

The figures I've seen suggest that 60% of first rounder make to the NHL (100 games) however what interest me is if you remove the first 5 picks what would be the average for the remaing first rounders, I suspect way less than 60% ?

Bader considers 200 games an NHLers and says that it breaks down to about ~25% of drafted players make the NHL.  He adds that sometimes it takes guys a decade or more to sneak across the line.

 

 

 

 

[kilgore]

On 5/23/2022 at 2:01 PM, Alflives said:

Actually, if we want a chance to build a team that can win the Cup, we should be keeping Demko and Petey.  Hughes to Jersey for a HUGE haul.  Miller, and Bo for picks and prospects.  Garland too.  

 

Shhhhhh.  You said the quiet thing out loud.

I know everyone's eye's glazed over this post from the first page, because no one wants to think this...especially after eight years of wasted crippling management.   But it may be the most sure way to get to contender status. 

 

But if Rutherford and co. just cannot stomach this kind of tear down, or know the owners will never allow it, (or Petey), and just makes a few inroads, opening up some cap, even keeping Miller for now, and just doing minor house cleaning like getting rid of Poolman and Dickenson, re-signing Boeser, and maybe even finding a younger college RHS prospect, or stealing a D prospect from another team, and we enter 22/23 with a fresh start and Bruce There It Is, hoping to barely land a playoff spot....I'll be one of the mindless borg cheering them on, regardless of what happens this summer.  Its my duty as a Canucklehead.

 

 

[VancouverHabitant]

26 minutes ago, kilgore said:

 

Shhhhhh.  You said the quiet thing out loud.

I know everyone's eye's glazed over this post from the first page, because no one wants to think this...especially after eight years of wasted crippling management.   But it may be the most sure way to get to contender status. 

 

But if Rutherford and co. just cannot stomach this kind of tear down, or know the owners will never allow it, (or Petey), and just makes a few inroads, opening up some cap, even keeping Miller for now, and just doing minor house cleaning like getting rid of Poolman and Dickenson, re-signing Boeser, and maybe even finding a younger college RHS prospect, or stealing a D prospect from another team, and we enter 22/23 with a fresh start and Bruce There It Is, hoping to barely land a playoff spot....I'll be one of the mindless borg cheering them on, regardless of what happens this summer.  Its my duty as a Canucklehead.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Fred65]

2 hours ago, mll said:

Bader considers 200 games an NHLers and says that it breaks down to about ~25% of drafted players make the NHL.  He adds that sometimes it takes guys a decade or more to sneak across the line.

 

 

 

 

Who knows what is best I based mine on a study done for the Canucks and done by UBC. They used 100 games. But the flaw I see was they consider the 1st round as a entire entity. Where as I think we all know the top 10 is far better ( as a rule ) than the lowest 10. So it really skews things

[IBatch]

20 hours ago, mll said:

Bader considers 200 games an NHLers and says that it breaks down to about ~25% of drafted players make the NHL.  He adds that sometimes it takes guys a decade or more to sneak across the line.

 

 

 

 

mll you'd probably be interested in a couple great studies that are available with some googling.   One thing that i found very telling, is despite a massive ballooning in staff and development,  actual hits and misses are minuscule compared to back in the early 90's late 80's ...   I liked that chart thanks for sharing.    Another curiosity is more then half drafted players eventually get a game or two ... that's pretty incredible considering how tough it is to make it. 

 

Reality is you need those high picks to create a new team - but it's not an automatic either.    You also have to hit on your later picks.   People beat on Brock way too much ... funny how THN did their draft preview and always do a best possible scenario with their first rounders ... one in the higher end of the draft Brock Boeser.   It's not his fault covid happened or his Dad got sick either (RIP), regardless he was an awesome pick even if he never played another game .

 

Edit:  Bader isn't saying that 25% play 200 games though, if he is he's incorrect. 

 

 

Edited June 4, 2022 by IBatch

[awalk]

23 hours ago, higgyfan said:

I think they can free up some cap space and reinvest in a couple of much-needed players; either in trade or UFA.  We

need speedy, scrappy and tenacious players.  Hopefully that comes in the form of filling some of the team's holes,

such as; RD, 3C and  a W (if one of our forwards is traded.

 

It is a difficult situation for sure and I don't expect them to be contenders for a while yet.  I do think they could find

themselves in the playoffs next season, which is essential experience for team development.

I think they are for sure a playoff team next year if Demko stays healthy. Can't see Boudreau not taking this team to the playoffs with a franchise goalie (fingers crossed)