0-5-2 with 75 games left. Can we turn it around?

[PetterssonOrPeterson]

It's doom and gloom time for the canucks and i know everybody has had it with this team (I'm one of them), continuously disappointing the fanbase.

 

However,

when you think about it...

there is still 75 games left...

 

We're not 3 weeks into the season and people are calling it quits on a season that will go on for 7 months.

 

I mean, in a perfect scenario, with the games that we could've easily won (multi-goal leads), we would be 4-3-0 rather than 0-5-2.

 

One thing I don't understand is how Jason King is still employed as a special teams coach when it's been a very blatant struggle since last year even under Travis Green. 

I really don't know how they missed/disregarded that when coaches were being replaced/let go. 

The special teams has literally killed us.

None more evident than in the season opener vs Edmonton where it felt like we were playing so well 5v5 and then a powerplay for us would literally kill the momentum we had prior to it (which is bizarre).

Not to mention we can't kill penalties which also adds to the trouble.

 

I'm not expecting some magical turnaround season like the Blues in 2019, but there is still a lot of time to turn things around.

We might suddenly start playing well, other teams in our division might end up struggling over the course of the long season ahead.

 

Just look at Edmonton last year before Woodcroft arrived...

 

Or... we might just keep going down the drain.. anything can happen I guess.

 

One thing for sure is, it would be one hell of a story if this team makes it into the playoffs with this start.

 

Honestly I'm doubtful, but at this point it just gets tiring being negative.

I'd like to look at the possible optimistic side of our situation (if there even is one).

[SID.IS.SID.ME.IS.ME]

Definitely lots of time to turn it around, if this group can turn it around. We’re only 4 points back of the teams in playoff positions and 8 points back of the conference leaders. It’s not really much ground to make up, especially over 75 games. If the team went on a run of solid play and actually strung some wins together, they could be back in the mix rather soon. The question is whether or not this group is capable of flipping that switch, and quickly, or whether they need changes before they can actually find a way to get going?

[coolboarder]

Needing two long winning streaks to get back in the race.  I do not mean just one but two 10+ winning streak and it's difficult.

[AV.]

Doesn't matter.  Almost any stretch in the NHL where a team goes 0-5-2 is going to seriously dent their playoff hopes.  The only time it didn't was during the 2008/09 season when the Canucks had lost around 9-10 games in a row (some in OT/SO, however).  But let's not forget the type of run the Canucks needed to go on when that happened.  As well, the personnel of the team was LEAPS and BOUNDS better than who we have now.  Indeed, it was.

In other words, we need to hope for an extended winning streak of about 9-10 Ws in a row, while hoping our divisional rivals are faltering/maintaining status quo.

[ShawnAntoski]

What is the point, for this year ?

[OldFaithfulCap]

I've been at this for a while, manual process but I wanted to see how much of a bad start we are having historically.

 

Used hockeydb as source (Vancouver Canucks hockey team [NHL] statistics and history at hockeydb.com)

 

Things that stand out from analyzing the records (shown below)

 

• This is going to be one of the top 5 worst starts
• The canucks don't start well often but it's their record over 20 games which seems to be the decisive factor in playoffs (unless we're so far below .500 before then that we can't break even)
• Even with their best starts they missed the playoffs 3 times, including their best record. - 
• There's no correlation between starts and the seasons that we made the Stanley Cup Finals - may be impacted by the higher points needed for playoffs (need to factor this in)

 

So there's both doom and hope.

 

 

 

 

 

 

BEST STARTS

 

 

 

ALL SEASONS

 

Edited October 26, 2022 by OldFaithfulCap
typos, link

[timberz21]

We definitely can, so 0-5-2, become 2-5-0, prorated to 75 games is 21-54-0

[JM_]

4 minutes ago, OldFaithfulCap said:

I've been at this for a while, manual process but I wanted to see how much of a bad start we are having historically.

 

Used hockeydb as source (Vancouver Canucks hockey team [NHL] statistics and history at hockeydb.com)

 

Three things stand out from analyzing the records (shown below)

 

• This is going to be one of the top 5 worst starts (though of the top 10 worst starts, 50% still made the playoffs)
• The canucks don't start well often but it's their record over 20 games which seems to be the decisive factor in playoffs (unless we're so far below .500 before then that we can't break even)
• Even with their best starts they missed the playoffs 3 times, including their best record.
• There's no correlation between starts and the seasons that we made the Stanley Cup Finals.

 

So there's both doom and hope.

 

 

 

thanks for all the work.

 

 

[Devron]

Oh definitely, does it feel like it. Nope

 

I do hope this ends up being some epic thread where we do make it. Pretty sick of the Provost playoff odds threads every year haha 

Edited October 26, 2022 by Devron
Added comment

[OldFaithfulCap]

1 minute ago, JM_ said:

 

thanks for all the work.

 

 

I should throw it into SQL, but just did the old manual.

 

It's interesting stuff, you forgot how not great we usually start.

[Coconuts]

Could we turn it around? Sure. Is it likely? I don't think so. 

 

Would we be better off turning it around? That's up for debate, but I reckon we wouldn't. 

[aGENT]

This about so much more than mathematical possibilities (which are already looking harrowing). We've seen this movie before. We've changed coaches, we've brought in a vaunted new management group. The roster problems, the team not remotely built or ready to contend, still remains.

 

All the winning streaks in the world aren't going to change that. All that likely accomplishes is worsening our draft position.

 

Rip the fucking bandaid off.

[Strawbone]

The problem with a rotten start like this is that the Canucks need to catch up to and pass almost everyone ahead of them in the standings. It’s almost out of our hands if all the top teams in the division play well and don’t have their own long winless streaks at some point. 
 

It’d be an amazing story if we make it, but I say no. 

[Crabcakes]

4 minutes ago, Coconuts said:

Could we turn it around? Sure. Is it likely? I don't think so. 

 

Would we be better off turning it around? That's up for debate, but I reckon we wouldn't. 

Ya, it's a good year to have high draft picks (we have 7, an extra 4th (NYR) and no 7th)

[MeanSeanBean]

Is it possible, oh totally. Does it feel likely, no not at all. This team has looked terrible, fragile and entitled. JR mentioned in training camp players weren't playing hard enough, with enough intensity. Even the bubble guys like PDG didn't care enough.

 

Against teams like Philly the guys didn't take it seriously and played poorly. Games like Buffalo then didn't seem to give a crap at all. Last night while they played with effort, did it matter at all? At no point did Carolina seem like they were worried they would lose. I swear that team never even started playing at 80% outside of a few minutes when they took the lead. A good team could just completely shut us down without even trying.

[Crabcakes]

7 minutes ago, aGENT said:

This about so much more than mathematical possibilities (which are already looking harrowing). We've seen this movie before. We've changed coaches, we've brought in a vaunted new management group. The roster problems, the team not remotely built or ready to contend, still remains.

 

All the winning streaks in the world aren't going to change that. All that likely accomplishes is worsening our draft position.

 

Rip the fucking bandaid off.

I'm all for what I call a retool.  Make it happen Jim! 

 

But I don't think that anything serious will happen until the trade deadline.  I could care less whether they make the playoffs.  What I want to see is moves that will help the team in the long run.

[Coconuts]

5 minutes ago, Crabcakes said:

Ya, it's a good year to have high draft picks (we have 7, an extra 4th (NYR) and no 7th)

I keep hearing there could be multiple franchise players in the top 5, I hope we draft there. I'm tired of this seemingly endless cycle of mediocrity we've watched over most of the past decade. We haven't tried to rebuild, we've tried to retool and gun for the playoffs, and we've usually fallen flat on our faces and drafted low despite the best efforts of management and the coaching staffs. 

 

Rip the band-aid off. 

[Bad_BOI_pete]

I think we will be lucky to pick up a single point in a game until Quinn Hughes returns. if the canucks manage a .500 record until he returns i would be very impressed.

 

 

We already have to win 10/15 for the rest of the year to make a 100 points. 

 

if quinn hughes is out 5 games and we go .500 our record will have to win every 10/15  to make 98 points

 

if quinn hughes is out 10 games and we go . 500 our record will have to win every 7/10 to make 98 points.

 

there is not much room for error.

[aGENT]

8 minutes ago, Crabcakes said:

I'm all for what I call a retool.  Make it happen Jim! 

 

But I don't think that anything serious will happen until the trade deadline.  I could care less whether they make the playoffs.  What I want to see is moves that will help the team in the long run.

Yup sell off anyone moveable, 28+, high cap $ (and even some under) for whatever we can get. Might take this and next year to really clear it out. Bring back some vets (short term cap) as warm bodies to fill the roster along with young players, picks and prospects. Build around Petey/Hughes. 

Edited October 26, 2022 by aGENT

[combover]

We can and like usual we will. unfortunately just in time to give false hope and ruin the draft position and prevent selling at the TDL 

 

then the “but we were on pace for” crowd will sound the victory horn  followed by telling everyone we’re two years away. For the 9 year in a row.