Devil's Advocate for the Hronek trade

[Dr. Crossbar]

57 minutes ago, The Lock said:

I agree that it makes not sense to give up on the core at the moment. It's just if more of this continues to the point where it looks less and less like we have a good team, it's going to get harder and harder to be able to have faith in the core as a fan. While it makes no sense now, it might make sense at some point. Truth is, we don't know what this team will be like even a year from now. We can hope that it's a good team, but we really don't know as of yet. I'm not going to dispute the odds that you're mentioning, but we also need to consider the fact that we are talking about odds.

Well, I don't think we're too far apart on any of this. Sure, we're talking about odds but there have also been changes since the odds were much bleaker. So, given those changes, I'm leaning into the better odds for next season, which gives more more reason to be optimistic.

 

1 hour ago, The Lock said:

The blanket statement here is that there "no guarantee"; however, what does that really mean in the end? There's no guarantee a rebuild will work. There's no guarantee our core will be good enough right now. You could literally put "there's no guarantee" on almost any statement and it would be true. And believe me when I say I've used that very statement before myself, but the problem with that way of thinking is it really doesn't amount to much of a point if it could be used on anything.

I'm not really interested in spending time on a deep dive into what no guarantee really means. It's just that ... no guarantee. 

 

To blow it all up for no guarantee of success, the possibility of picks not working out, an unknown (possibly) ongoing timeline is much more of a risk than building around your known quantities, who can be measured, and also have more of a finite window to plan around.

 

We're saying which one of these directions makes more sense right now. Both are risky, sure, but one has more knowns to build around than unknowns, which produces something closer to a guarantee. 

 

There's nothing wrong with this way of thinking at all. Especially when you factor in business. 

 

1 hour ago, The Lock said:

As far as narrowmindedness goes, you have to consider even from a business standpoint what makes sense. A rebuild, historically, can lead to a higher chance of making the playoffs later on. Again, no guarantee, but you just have to look at the odds to really see that there's a better chance of things had we done a rebuild and not just a retool last decade. Again, no guarantee, but we're not looking for a guarantee. We're looking for a better chance, or a better odds, of it happening.

Well, we have to separate "need to rebuild now" from "had we done a rebuild and not just retool last decade" ... right now a retool makes more sense... eight years ago, a rebuild made more sense 

 

From a business standpoint, you build more around knowns, what can be measured, extrapolated, timelines, and plan accordingly. It's easier to control the consequences with knowns rather than unknowns.

 

We have real value in our knowns at this time - Petey, Hughes, Demko, Miller, Hronek (who also has a known history but unknown re: injury) ... and a new increasingly known in Silovs. That value is closer to a guarantee than the unknown of draft picks and prospects. These knowns are giving us those better odds in the here and now. 

 

1 hour ago, The Lock said:

Obviously though, the past is here and gone and we can yell at clouds all we want about what didn't happen to no avail. My main concern I guess is that we end up with the longest drought of not having a good team we've ever had. I'm hoping I'm wrong and I'm hoping you're right.

I agree with you on this. That's my concern as well. I do have a lot more faith in this management than I did with Benning just based on what I've seen so far and the fact that these guys all have winning histories. If we fall flat next season, it won't be pretty. 

 

 

1 hour ago, The Lock said:

 

 

 

 

[IBatch]

On 3/8/2023 at 12:20 PM, Sativika said:

Copy and paste from Canucks Daily..........

"Hronek is currently putting in a career-high season of 38 points after 60 games. The rarity of the right-handed shot defenseman really increases the price the Canucks will have to pay for his services in the long term. Amongst active right-handed defensemen making an average of $7M/year, we can find players like Aaron Ekblad, Alex Pietrangelo, Dougie Hamilton, Cale Makar, Jacob Trouba, and Charlie McAvoyjust to name those."
 

Now I've not really seen Hronek play much. And I really didn't pay any attention in the recent Wings/Nucks game. But is Hronek worthy to be included with the above names?

If that's so, then we scored big time. I dunno. Whaddaya'll say to this?!?!??!????

 

The answer, of course, is no.  Trouba is an anchor but at least he rocks people with his hits, and obviously he's a leader otherwise he wouldn't have the C.   Out of that list he's the only guy that isn't producing.   When we got him, believe he's going to be available in the 6.5 or so range, and that's only if he produces over 30 points without significant PP time.     So it's not something to worry about, obviously he's a Myers replacement (including his cap) and upgrade.   Agree with Button.   The Canucks are not in a position to wait 3-4 years, and that's IF the lotto ticket works out a lot better then the average guy that's picked in NYI's range.    Just like he said, if it's a top 11 pick ... then well, and just like he said, we just picked up a former 9th overall for a 7th and now he's signed in Russia lol.    By draft plus two, it doesn't matter at all where a guy was picked in the first round or after.    It's a pet peeve when that's brought up too.  "Oh he's a for former 4th rounder and we gave up a first" blah blah.  Hyperbole but it doesn't matter. 

 

The odds are pretty clear.   Getting a Hronek, is what you're hoping to get with a top ten pick.   Same with a Bieksa, Salo or Hamhuis.   Or Edler.   Doesn't matter where they are drafted.   Button is also a scout.   And a darned good one.    Most teams would be best to just draft off his list year to year.   If he's saying this was a good move for us, then that holds a lot more weight then what Drance or an internet warrior says. 

 

We aren't in a rebuild mode anymore.   What he said is exactly what i've been saying, keep the pick we might as well blow it up and trade EP and QHs.    And he didn't even bring up the fact neither player wants to stay here and do that either.   That's simply from a tactical viewpoint.   We just plugged a huge hole.   Tochett also iced an AHL defense and did ok (sure easy schedule etc) but like Button said, now we have two top pairing guys, and Hronek is a top pairing guy. 

[DrJockitch]

On 3/8/2023 at 7:46 PM, kilgore said:

 

We are still working with the same plan that Frank had for JB in 2014.  But there is a big difference.  Firstly we have competent experienced managers and coaches. We have bonified stars ready to break out, and actual good veteran signings lately. This retool has a real chance of getting us to the dance. We now have a legit top RHD.  Yes it probably will be a one and done team as we will have no futures to build from, but hopefully we can get near the top of the league with Petey and Hughes, and Miller and Demko, for a few years before it all comes crashing down.

 

A proper rebuild there would be more chance to build something sustainable, with a farm bursting at the seams. But with a well engineered retool, we can still get to contender status, even if its temporary.  But if it works it will be quicker. Whatever it yields, we have to cheer it on and hope it works don't we? Even if it means winning more games down the stretch than is good for us draft wise. What else can the Canucks proletariat do?

The rookie GM and the experienced president who can’t keep his foot out of his mouth since he got here. This year was a year of unforced PR error after unforced PR error. The management embarrassed themselves again and again. 
Despite some very good additions and another unsustainable coaching bump we ended up worse than last year.  
They had a steep hill to climb and have made some progress but also stumbled back a lot of times. 
A proper rebuild was the smart way to go true, but since that ship has sailed we are going with a much less sustainable plan and so far haven’t actually shown that we are doing it better than Benning, in fact the parallels to the beginning of the Benning era are striking, though he didn’t make as many mistakes in his first year.

Edited June 2, 2023 by DrJockitch

[Alflives]

4 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

The rookie GM and the experienced president who can’t keep his foot out of his mouth since he got here. This year was a year of unforced PR error after unforced PR error. The management embarrassed themselves again and again. 
Despite some very good additions and another unsustainable coaching bump we ended up worse than last year.  
They had a steep hill to climb and have made some progress but also stumbled back a lot of times. 
A proper rebuild was the smart way to go true, but since that ship has sailed we are going with a much less sustainable plan and so far haven’t actually shown that we are doing it better than Benning, in fact the parallels to the beginning of the Benning era are striking, though he didn’t make as many mistakes in his first year.

Well this gave old Alf a good laugh with his morning scotch. 
We have a great core (young too) and management continues to remove the stain of Benning as they retool the supporting cast. 
105 points next season. 

[Putgolzin]

49 minutes ago, IBatch said:

 

We aren't in a rebuild mode anymore.   What he said is exactly what i've been saying, keep the pick we might as well blow it up and trade EP and QHs.   

I keep hearing this thing over and over and it's so ridiculous.

I like the Hronek trade and generally agree with the thinking behind it - but this tired trope that there's only two options available is so reductionist. Like we can, at this moment, only choose between a scorched earth rebuild and going for the Cup?

What about the hundred other available versions of developing a team? 

Because obviously Hronek wasn't turning us into a cup contender, but keeping the pick wasn't forcing anyone to trade away our stars either. It's just so classically CDC to only line up behind one of two extremes.

[DrJockitch]

53 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Well this gave old Alf a good laugh with his morning scotch. 
We have a great core (young too) and management continues to remove the stain of Benning as they retool the supporting cast. 
105 points next season. 

Problem isn’t and hasn’t been the core (except for maybe Demko at start of season). It is the collection of overpriced underperforming vets we have surrounded the core with. 
It is a hodgepodge of poorly fitting pieces and the subtractions have been hard to come by. 
Until this group shifts and does something more impressive than overpaying for an injured defenceman, I won’t believe they are any better than Benning. The sum total of what they have done so far has made us worse and stripped down the future assets. 
I want to cheer for them, I want the team moving on a path of sustainable improvement but don’t see that as the path we are going down, once again. 
 

[Alflives]

14 minutes ago, DrJockitch said:

Problem isn’t and hasn’t been the core (except for maybe Demko at start of season). It is the collection of overpriced underperforming vets we have surrounded the core with. 
It is a hodgepodge of poorly fitting pieces and the subtractions have been hard to come by. 
Until this group shifts and does something more impressive than overpaying for an injured defenceman, I won’t believe they are any better than Benning. The sum total of what they have done so far has made us worse and stripped down the future assets. 
I want to cheer for them, I want the team moving on a path of sustainable improvement but don’t see that as the path we are going down, once again. 
 

Hronek was the much needed core piece necessary to get us to having an elite D on the ice for most of the game. That was a steal of a deal. We clearly stole the Wings’ best D man and most important player. That’s not arguable, especially considering the nose dive that club did without Hronek. SLO Mo couldn’t handle the minutes. Yzerboy got taken to the woodshed by Allvin. 
So Hronek completed our core. The work continues to remove the Benning stain from the supporting cast. 
105 points in 23/24! 
Now go have a good scratch. 

[DrJockitch]

1 minute ago, Alflives said:

Hronek was the much needed core piece necessary to get us to having an elite D on the ice for most of the game. That was a steal of a deal. We clearly stole the Wings’ best D man and most important player. That’s not arguable, especially considering the nose dive that club did without Hronek. SLO Mo couldn’t handle the minutes. Yzerboy got taken to the woodshed by Allvin. 
So Hronek completed our core. The work continues to remove the Benning stain from the supporting cast. 
105 points in 23/24! 
Now go have a good scratch. 

Consistency is more important to you than accuracy clearly. 
Will need to see a lot more of Hronek before putting him down as either elite or core, that kind of hyperbole leads to a lot more satisfaction with mediocrity. Such a low bar to clear to satisfy you, filling one hole in a Swiss cheese lineup.  Missed a large part of the season with a serious shoulder injury which kind of raises a few red flags as well but hey we overpaid anyway. 
Detroit sold off a bunch, told the team the season is over competitively and I think Bertuzzi had more to do with the losing than an injured defenceman who want playing anyway. 

[DSVII]

On 3/8/2023 at 4:46 PM, kilgore said:

Folks who haven't reset to the retool yet are just in for more self inflicted pain.

 

The tank dream is dead. At least for this season. I don't know if some are confusing our democratic election system with the NHL  And fans with voters. its not a democracy. And the world is not fair. We live in a capitalist society where money rules. And only the very wealthy get to own the sports teams, and decide on how they want to run it.  We are simply along for the ride.

 

Now maybe there is a tiny bit of influence in embarrassing an owner if enough fans b@#$# about some aspect of the team, and the media shows pick up on that, and eventually the grumbling gets all the way up to Francesco. But I really don't think we sway the Aquilini's much in how they spend their money.

 

For the most part, we have to go along with the owners vision.  We've had to for all of Bennings disastrous torturous years while he ran around trying to bandaid the team for Francesco every Summer.

 

We are still working with the same plan that Frank had for JB in 2014.  But there is a big difference.  Firstly we have competent experienced managers and coaches. We have bonified stars ready to break out, and actual good veteran signings lately. This retool has a real chance of getting us to the dance. We now have a legit top RHD.  Yes it probably will be a one and done team as we will have no futures to build from, but hopefully we can get near the top of the league with Petey and Hughes, and Miller and Demko, for a few years before it all comes crashing down.

 

A proper rebuild there would be more chance to build something sustainable, with a farm bursting at the seams. But with a well engineered retool, we can still get to contender status, even if its temporary.  But if it works it will be quicker. Whatever it yields, we have to cheer it on and hope it works don't we? Even if it means winning more games down the stretch than is good for us draft wise. What else can the Canucks proletariat do?

At the very least can he install cup holders in the seats? Went to a BC lions game yesterday and I marveled at the fact that I had a place to put my drink. 

 

I think Hronek is also propped up by his deployment, similar to how we did with Hodgson. Seider was having a sophomore slump and Detroit literally had no one else to go to. I'm not saying he's a bad RHD, he's a legit top 4 RHD. But I'd like to see the games first before annointing him that.

[kloubek]

The guy started his career at a point-every-other-game pace. 6 years later, it was up to almost 2 points every 3 games. 

 

I think it's safe to say he's a top 4. His ceiling, however, remains in question.

[spook007]

5 hours ago, IBatch said:

The answer, of course, is no.  Trouba is an anchor but at least he rocks people with his hits, and obviously he's a leader otherwise he wouldn't have the C.   Out of that list he's the only guy that isn't producing.   When we got him, believe he's going to be available in the 6.5 or so range, and that's only if he produces over 30 points without significant PP time.     So it's not something to worry about, obviously he's a Myers replacement (including his cap) and upgrade.   Agree with Button.   The Canucks are not in a position to wait 3-4 years, and that's IF the lotto ticket works out a lot better then the average guy that's picked in NYI's range.    Just like he said, if it's a top 11 pick ... then well, and just like he said, we just picked up a former 9th overall for a 7th and now he's signed in Russia lol.    By draft plus two, it doesn't matter at all where a guy was picked in the first round or after.    It's a pet peeve when that's brought up too.  "Oh he's a for former 4th rounder and we gave up a first" blah blah.  Hyperbole but it doesn't matter. 

 

The odds are pretty clear.   Getting a Hronek, is what you're hoping to get with a top ten pick.   Same with a Bieksa, Salo or Hamhuis.   Or Edler.   Doesn't matter where they are drafted.   Button is also a scout.   And a darned good one.    Most teams would be best to just draft off his list year to year.   If he's saying this was a good move for us, then that holds a lot more weight then what Drance or an internet warrior says. 

 

We aren't in a rebuild mode anymore.   What he said is exactly what i've been saying, keep the pick we might as well blow it up and trade EP and QHs.    And he didn't even bring up the fact neither player wants to stay here and do that either.   That's simply from a tactical viewpoint.   We just plugged a huge hole.   Tochett also iced an AHL defense and did ok (sure easy schedule etc) but like Button said, now we have two top pairing guys, and Hronek is a top pairing guy. 

Spot on amigo +10

[Fred65]

39 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Spot on amigo +10

I have to agree. First Hronek is not chopped liver, I believe he's a quality RHD and remember RHD are like hens back teeth, there ain't many around. However as Button points out if they had kept the pick he would likely have no any impct for maybe 3 years. Now you're trying to resign Pettersson, he like all the others wants to win, is signing Hronek a pointer to EP and his agent that Vcr is like him wanting to win ASAP. If they think Vcr is not active enough does EP resign ? 

 

Just on merit alone I earnestly belive Hronek was a good aquasition and he's here now!! I might add that of all the scouting gurus I rank Button as one of the best. The question I would have been interested in asking Button is McWard or Johansson ranked as NHL players in his opinion. Now that would have thrown a lot of light on the Vcr future .... IMO

[Alflives]

3 minutes ago, Fred65 said:

I have to agree. First Hronek is not chopped liver, I believe he's a quality RHD and remember RHD are like hens back teeth, there ain't many around. However as Button points out if they had kept the pick he would likely have no any impct for maybe 3 years. Now you're trying to resign Pettersson, he like all the others wants to win, is signing Hronek a pointer to EP and his agent that Vcr is like him wanting to win ASAP. If they think Vcr is not active enough does EP resign ? 

 

Just on merit alone I earnestly belive Hronek was a good aquasition and he's here now!! I might add that of all the scouting gurus I rank Button as one of the best. The question I would have been interested in asking Button is McWard or Johansson ranked as NHL players in his opinion. Now that would have thrown a lot of light on the Vcr future .... IMO

Wouldn't drafting at 17OA be a spot where we would be lucky the guy we pick (if a D) develops in 3-5 years into a guy as good as Hronek? 

[Drakrami]

Stop trying to justify trades lol. Draft picks should always be kept unless you like to be losers forever (like we have been). Reasons like oh the pick wouldn't have turned out to be a better; Or, the pick wouldn't be ready in another 2-3 years. Is Bullshit, simple as that. 

 

Look at Bouchard. Drafted in 2018 at #10 5 years ago. Now playing amazing hockey for Edmonton. Draft picks should be kept is not even an argument, it is a fact. 

[Baggins]

6 minutes ago, Drakrami said:

Stop trying to justify trades lol. Draft picks should always be kept unless you like to be losers forever (like we have been). Reasons like oh the pick wouldn't have turned out to be a better; Or, the pick wouldn't be ready in another 2-3 years. Is Bullshit, simple as that. 

 

Look at Bouchard. Drafted in 2018 at #10 5 years ago. Now playing amazing hockey for Edmonton. Draft picks should be kept is not even an argument, it is a fact. 

Name a team that hasn't traded draft picks to fill a need.

[Alflives]

6 minutes ago, Drakrami said:

Stop trying to justify trades lol. Draft picks should always be kept unless you like to be losers forever (like we have been). Reasons like oh the pick wouldn't have turned out to be a better; Or, the pick wouldn't be ready in another 2-3 years. Is Bullshit, simple as that. 

 

Look at Bouchard. Drafted in 2018 at #10 5 years ago. Now playing amazing hockey for Edmonton. Draft picks should be kept is not even an argument, it is a fact. 

The majority of players on clubs were not drafted by those teams. They were traded for, or signed as UFA's. Draft picks are important, but they can be used to acquire much needed key pieces, like Hronek: (a 25 year old, elite, right shot D) 

[eeeeergh]

25 minutes ago, Drakrami said:

Stop trying to justify trades lol. Draft picks should always be kept unless you like to be losers forever (like we have been). Reasons like oh the pick wouldn't have turned out to be a better; Or, the pick wouldn't be ready in another 2-3 years. Is Bullshit, simple as that. 

 

Look at Bouchard. Drafted in 2018 at #10 5 years ago. Now playing amazing hockey for Edmonton. Draft picks should be kept is not even an argument, it is a fact. 

Agreed, draft picks should always be kept

 

Imagine where we'd be today without 1st round core pieces Virtanen, Juolevi, Podkolzin, Shinkaruk, Gaunce, Jensen, McNally, and Schroeder. 

 

The salary cap has turned the NHL into a game of moneyball. Draft picks carried far more value in the pre-cap era, when you could draft a guy and keep him forever because you could keep paying him whatever he was worth without getting rid of another player. In fact good quality players would RARELY ever walk to free agency, and it would be exceedingly difficult to pick up a difference maker in a trade. after all - if theres no cap, why would a team trade away a top player without getting an equally good player or set of players in return?

 

A home run draft pick now buys you 3 cost controlled years, and after that, you can pick up good players in free agency/trade.

 

So what should you use draft picks for?

 

Use them to swing for the fences - HOME RUN players that you cant get in UFA or trade. Those are players youre likely to find in the top-5 most draft years, this year probably theres a few more in the top-10. 

 

If theres nobody that projects to be a home run where we're picking, trade the pick. We weren't likely to get a home run player that far down in the draft (islanders pick), so flipping horvat into a top pairing RD made a ton of sense. 

 

 

 

[IBatch]

6 hours ago, Putgolzin said:

I keep hearing this thing over and over and it's so ridiculous.

I like the Hronek trade and generally agree with the thinking behind it - but this tired trope that there's only two options available is so reductionist. Like we can, at this moment, only choose between a scorched earth rebuild and going for the Cup?

What about the hundred other available versions of developing a team? 

Because obviously Hronek wasn't turning us into a cup contender, but keeping the pick wasn't forcing anyone to trade away our stars either. It's just so classically CDC to only line up behind one of two extremes.

It of course doesn't need to be one extreme of the other.   But I do agree with Button on this point.   The team has a lot of flaws as is, and waiting for a past mid first round pick to maybe make the lineup is a correct on average assumption.   And well if you really want to be brutally honest about it, on "average" we are talking about a 100 nhl games.   And what the scouts want is 200 past 20 or so as their par line.   Button was correct in his view of where we are at, and didn't even bring up the fact that neither EP or QHs want to stick around for a rebuild.   Tactically he said "you might as well blow it up and trade a QHs or EP or both"... can't agree more.

 

Neutral people that talk about the Canucks are fun to listen to or read about.    I agree with Button, there is nothing wrong with our offense, but our D is all over the place, and the biggest hole for sure is RHD.    Crazy to think that is also what the majority of the CDC has been clamouring for....and now that we have something interesting some still would rather have the lottery ticket.   At least wait and see.  

[IBatch]

17 minutes ago, eeeeergh said:

Agreed, draft picks should always be kept

 

Imagine where we'd be today without 1st round core pieces Virtanen, Juolevi, Podkolzin, Shinkaruk, Gaunce, Jensen, McNally, and Schroeder. 

 

The salary cap has turned the NHL into a game of moneyball. Draft picks carried far more value in the pre-cap era, when you could draft a guy and keep him forever because you could keep paying him whatever he was worth without getting rid of another player. In fact good quality players would RARELY ever walk to free agency, and it would be exceedingly difficult to pick up a difference maker in a trade. after all - if theres no cap, why would a team trade away a top player without getting an equally good player or set of players in return?

 

A home run draft pick now buys you 3 cost controlled years, and after that, you can pick up good players in free agency/trade.

 

So what should you use draft picks for?

 

Use them to swing for the fences - HOME RUN players that you cant get in UFA or trade. Those are players youre likely to find in the top-5 most draft years, this year probably theres a few more in the top-10. 

 

If theres nobody that projects to be a home run where we're picking, trade the pick. We weren't likely to get a home run player that far down in the draft (islanders pick), so flipping horvat into a top pairing RD made a ton of sense. 

 

 

 

Don't forget; you usually have no clue what you've got until they are 20 years old either.    Nowadays careers have been killed because of cap and rushing guys, just to balance the books. 

Edited June 2, 2023 by IBatch

[Fred65]

Draft picks unless they're in a top echelon take time. If you're signing EP he's likely not interested in waiting to build up the roster. Hronek is 24 he's taken the training wheels off and ready to go. When you think of draft picks think for a moment about the likes of Kratsov chosen 9th O/A or others who flounder. Draft picks do not = success every time. The name of the game is to win first and last