An Oliver Ekman-Larsson buyout is the only way the Canucks can re-tool the defence

[Elias Pettersson]

An Oliver Ekman-Larsson buyout is the only way the Canucks can re-tool the defence (msn.com)

 

Story by Noah Strang, Canucksarmy • Yesterday 3:31 p.m.

 

The Vancouver Canucks are playing well. They’ve won five straight and have a 7-2-1 record over their last ten games, making them one of the hottest teams in the league.

 

There are a lot of factors that the Canucks’ recent stretch of strong play can be attributed to. The return of Thatcher Demko, a soft schedule, and head coach Rick Tocchet having more time to set his systems are definitely all big reasons for the recent winning streak. However, the Canucks have also just flat-out been playing some of their best hockey of the season.

 

This is especially true on the defensive side of things. Since February 20th, a sample size of exactly 10 games, the Canucks rank seventh in the NHL with 2.16 goals against per sixty 5-on-5 minutes. The Canucks also rank in the top ten league-wide for shots against per sixty 5-on-5 minutes and goals against per sixty minutes on the penalty kill over the same time frame.

 

The return of Thatcher Demko, who is playing much better than he did at the start of the season, has definitely helped a ton, but the Canucks are also making life much easier for him. The most shocking part of this may be that the team has posted these impressive defensive results while running with a mishmash defence corps made up of multiple AHL regulars.

 

Quinn Hughes – Noah Juulsen

Guillaume Brisebois – Tyler Myers

Christian Wolanin – Kyle Burroughs

 

The Canucks are rolling out the six players listed above and having more success than ever. The most notable absence is that of Oliver Ekman-Larsson, the veteran defenceman currently missing time with a lower body injury. Despite being paid like a top-pairing defenceman, Ekman-Larsson’s lack of foot speed and quickness has made him a liability and the Canucks have been finding more success with quicker options.

 

If the Canucks want to be competing for a playoff spot next season, and every move made by management suggests that to be true, they need to buyout Ekman-Larsson this offseason. The savings over the next few seasons would help alleviate the team’s cap pressure while perhaps even improving the roster at the same time, as AHL options have shown they can outperform Ekman-Larsson.

 

What would an Oliver Ekman-Larsson buyout look like?

 

If the Canucks were to buy out Ekman-Larsson this offseason, this is how the money would shake out. The team would save just over $7 million in cap space for next season, as well as just under $5 million in the year after that. However, the Canucks would have to take a penalty of $2.126 million each season between 2027-28 and 2030-31.

 

For the current management regime, this has to look enticing. The savings over the next two seasons are huge, giving them a chance to make more moves and manipulate the roster in their vision. If they can’t make progress with that cap space before 2026-27, they might not be around to deal with the headache of the buyout at the end of the decade.

 

Replacing Ekman-Larsson’s production 

 

When the Canucks acquired Ekman-Larsson, it was widely acknowledged that taking on his contract was a huge risk and that he would definitely not be able to live up to that number in the latter years of the deal. However, Ekman-Larsson’s fall from grace has happened more suddenly than even most of the Coyotes/Canucks trade’s harshest critics predicted. This is just his second year with the Canucks and not only has he not played anywhere close to his $7.26 million cap hit, he’s barely been a replacement level defenceman.

 

The Canucks get completely dominated while Ekman-Larsson is on the ice at 5-on-5. He’s got a 38.54 GF% on the year, and the Canucks allow shots at a higher rate with him on the ice compared to any other defenceman that’s played at least 10 games this season. Part of this has to do with the fact that he’s forced to matchup against opponent’s top-six forwards, but players that the Canucks have acquired for practically nothing such as Ethan Bear, Christian Wolanin, and more have done a better job.

 

The Canucks would not struggle to replace Ekman-Larsson’s on-ice production if they were to buy out his contract this offseason. The money could be used to target cheaper, faster, and quicker options that would be able to perform just as well for the Canucks next season. Ekman-Larsson’s speed was already a huge issue and after ageing another year, as well as dealing with this ankle injury, things are not going to be better next season.

 

Planning ahead

 

Another reason why the Canucks would be wise to buy out Ekman-Larsson this offseason is that it maximizes the cap space they can get over the next few seasons. The Canucks have some large extensions on the horizon, most significantly for Elias Pettersson and Filip Hronek who will both need new deals after next season.

 

While buying out Ekman-Larsson won’t be enough alone, it would be a massive step towards clearing the money needed to handle those extensions while also still being able to improve the team.

 

The Canucks can’t afford to keep paying Ekman-Larsson to be a liability on defence. They must get younger and faster and they can do so for much less than the $7 million they’re paying Ekman-Larsson at the moment. While swallowing the $2.126 million for four consecutive seasons after this contract expires is less than ideal, it’s the cheapest way for the Canucks to get out of this sticky situation.

 

And if they hope to compete next season, it’s the only way for them to navigate this situation.

[Smashian Kassian]

Makes no sense imo. Its purely a move for the immediacy.

[IBatch]

A month ago, no freaking way.   Now it's tough to ignore, the teams played better with him out and AHL level defender's in.   Brisbois, it's also nice to see him finally get a serious look, as well as a contract.    

 

Maybe his fall from grace has everything to do with his ankle.    That's not an easy thing to come back from either.   OEL is trade proof as well.   Holds all the cards and no way he says ok to a team that's just starting their rebuild anyways. 

 

It's really too bad, his first year he played decent enough given his assignments.    

 

Now with the team playing much better without him ... has to be tempting to buy him out.  2/3 of his salary over twice the length ... that's not as bad as Luongo's cap penalty, but it's self induced 100% this time.     Looking like one of the worst trades we've ever made right now, and likely will be if we have to buy him out this early on.     Maybe this is a career ending injury.    Or we get an amnesty buyout.   That would be easier on the cap. 

[Elias Pettersson]

The exact numbers for cap savings by year are as follows:

 

2023 - $7,113,333

2024 - $4,913,333

2025 - $2,493,333

2026 - $2,493,333

 

Our cap savings are huge the first two years.  We can easily sign a Graves or a Gavrikov to replace him in the top 4.  Gavrikov would probably be around $4.5 million, so we are still positive the first two years.  We are negative the next two years, but if we have guys on the 3rd pairing at $1 million, then it won't affect the cap that much.  The key to an OEL buyout is to make sure you replace him with a perfect partner for Hronek, so you have that 2nd pairing nailed down for the next 5-7 years.

 

The added last 4 years at $2.126 million isn't ideal, but by that time we are either cup contenders or the current management group isn't around any longer, so it will be up to the next management group to figure out.  Which is exactly what Benning has done to this current management group, leaving them hanging with this albatross contract...

 

2023-24	$10,500,000	$8,250,000	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	$8,083,333	$146,667	$20,000
2024-25	$8,000,000	$8,250,000	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	$5,583,333	$2,346,667	$320,000
2025-26	$5,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	$2,833,333	$4,766,667	$650,000
2026-27	$5,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	$2,833,333	$4,766,667	$650,000
2027-28	$0	$0	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	-$2,416,667	$2,126,667	$290,000
2028-29	$0	$0	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	-$2,416,667	$2,126,667	$290,000
2029-30	$0	$0	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	-$2,416,667	$2,126,667	$290,000
2030-31	$0	$0	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	-$2,416,667	$2,126,667	$290,000
TOTAL	$29,000,000	$33,000,000	$0	$19,333,333	$19,333,333	$9,666,667	$20,533,336 (88%)	$2,800,000 (12%)

Edited March 16, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[FaninMex]

OEL had a bad season due to bad goalies, a bad locker room, an injury, and a number of other reasons. Also, having Hronek on a line with him instead of Myers will benefit him a lot more as will having structure. 

Trading Myers and Boeser will bring back some value instead of dooming the team but this should have been done at the TDL not going into the draft.

[Guest]

27 minutes ago, IBatch said:

A month ago, no freaking way.   Now it's tough to ignore, the teams played better with him out and AHL level defender's in.   Brisbois, it's also nice to see him finally get a serious look, as well as a contract.    

 

Maybe his fall from grace has everything to do with his ankle.    That's not an easy thing to come back from either.   OEL is trade proof as well.   Holds all the cards and no way he says ok to a team that's just starting their rebuild anyways. 

 

It's really too bad, his first year he played decent enough given his assignments.    

 

Now with the team playing much better without him ... has to be tempting to buy him out.  2/3 of his salary over twice the length ... that's not as bad as Luongo's cap penalty, but it's self induced 100% this time.     Looking like one of the worst trades we've ever made right now, and likely will be if we have to buy him out this early on.     Maybe this is a career ending injury.    Or we get an amnesty buyout.   That would be easier on the cap. 

Alternatively, you could say...  perfect, we have cheap replacements for OEL so let's give them a chance next year instead of buying out and looking for bad ways to spend our money in free agency.  

[Miss Korea Bob.Loblaw]

A $2M defenceman is better than OEL.  No, check that - an AHL player on a minimum contract is better than OEL.  It's a bit uncanny how well the blueline has looked during this run, but there's no doubt OEL was making this team much worse.

[Curmudgeon]

29 minutes ago, IBatch said:

Now with the team playing much better without him ... has to be tempting to buy him out.

Have you looked at the numbers? He'd be paid $19.33 million over eight years. That's cash out of the owners' pocket. Not only that, but a buyout costs the team $20.5 million in DEAD CAP SPACE. In the short term (two years) there is an attractive amount of recovered cap space, but for the last six years there is zero benefit for the Canucks, and in fact they are paying twice, in real dollars and in dead cap space. 

 

The only real alternative is to keep him for at least one more season, after which the buyout becomes slightly more manageable, or for two seasons and it becomes very doable.

 

Source, and you can change the year to project forward: https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/oliver-ekman-larsson

 

 

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Curmudgeon said:

Have you looked at the numbers? He'd be paid $19.33 million over eight years. That's cash out of the owners' pocket. Not only that, but a buyout costs the team $20.5 million in DEAD CAP SPACE. In the short term (two years) there is an attractive amount of recovered cap space, but for the last six years there is zero benefit for the Canucks, and in fact they are paying twice, in real dollars and in dead cap space. 

 

The only real alternative is to keep him for at least one more season, after which the buyout becomes slightly more manageable, or for two seasons and it becomes very doable.

 

Source, and you can change the year to project forward: https://www.capfriendly.com/buyout-calculator/oliver-ekman-larsson

 

 

Yes it's ugly.   And yes the owners would be eating 2/3 of the salary owed.    It's a difficult situation because even if he becomes the 4th best LHD on the team, we can't bury him in Abby.    Like I said, a month ago wasn't at all a fan of even the idea of buying him out.    This year he's been bad.   No edge at all to his game, last year he played with an edge.   Doesn't block shots, isn't great infront of the net and board battles.    And has lost a step.   Maybe Tochett can fix some of that.   Unless injuries are a factor, there really is no reason for such a regression. He's actually at an age where blue chip D's often play at a high level.   Edler did, same with Bieksa and Hamhuis.    Wasn't expecting a regression until he was at least 33...  His deal is up when he's 35.  

 

IF cap goes up 4.5, and we trade a winger, that's enough cap relief to add a UFA D.    Sure hope we don't waste it on another declining D, or as in Schmidt's case, a bad fit. 

Edited March 16, 2023 by IBatch

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, VancouverHabitant said:

Alternatively, you could say...  perfect, we have cheap replacements for OEL so let's give them a chance next year instead of buying out and looking for bad ways to spend our money in free agency.  

So he just flies around with the team if these cheap replacements beat him out of a spot?   That's awkward for him and the team.    Get the concern about free agency, we sure whiffed a lot during the JB era.    I'd rather buy him out if he ends up playing like he did this year or worse for the remainder of his career.   Ideally it was just the injury - he heals, and can play a top four spot without hurting us like his first season.    Maybe OEL/Hronek makes a good pairing. 

Edited March 16, 2023 by IBatch

[iinatcc]

I would pause considering a buyout and hope there's a GM somewhere that values OEL the same way Benning did. 

[Timråfan]

25 minutes ago, IBatch said:

So he just flies around with the team if these cheap replacements beat him out of a spot?   That's awkward for him and the team.    Get the concern about free agency, we sure whiffed a lot during the JB era.    I'd rather buy him out if he ends up playing like he did this year or worse for the remainder of his career.   Ideally it was just the injury - he heals, and can play a top four spot without hurting us like his first season.    Maybe OEL/Hronek makes a good pairing. 

Isn’t OEL an offensive D? 
That means that he take cares of the few minutes left by Hughes/Hronek that(if they split) take cares of around 50 minutes.

For ten minutes OEL might keep it together especially since he will face the weaker players. That can be very valuable since he got a great toolbox.

But he must be injuryfree…

 

We need three stay at home Ds if so and those are cheaper and seems to be in our depth roster.

 

I forgot, next season we just aim for the playoff so that year OEL can have as evaluation season and we buy him out then if so and save two years of dead cap.

 

Edited March 16, 2023 by Timråfan

[Cup_Joneser]

2 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

The exact numbers for cap savings by year are as follows:

 

2023 - $7,113,333

2024 - $4,913,333

2025 - $2,493,333

2026 - $2,493,333

 

Our cap savings are huge the first two years.  We can easily sign a Graves or a Gavrikov to replace him in the top 4.  Gavrikov would probably be around $4.5 million, so we are still positive the first two years.  We are negative the next two years, but if we have guys on the 3rd pairing at $1 million, then it won't affect the cap that much.  The key to an OEL buyout is to make sure you replace him with a perfect partner for Hronek, so you have that 2nd pairing nailed down for the next 5-7 years.

 

The added last 4 years at $2.126 million isn't ideal, but by that time we are either cup contenders or the current management group isn't around any longer, so it will be up to the next management group to figure out.  Which is exactly what Benning has done to this current management group, leaving them hanging with this albatross contract...

 

2023-24	$10,500,000	$8,250,000	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	$8,083,333	$146,667	$20,000
2024-25	$8,000,000	$8,250,000	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	$5,583,333	$2,346,667	$320,000
2025-26	$5,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	$2,833,333	$4,766,667	$650,000
2026-27	$5,250,000	$8,250,000	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	$2,833,333	$4,766,667	$650,000
2027-28	$0	$0	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	-$2,416,667	$2,126,667	$290,000
2028-29	$0	$0	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	-$2,416,667	$2,126,667	$290,000
2029-30	$0	$0	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	-$2,416,667	$2,126,667	$290,000
2030-31	$0	$0	$0	$2,416,667	$2,416,667	-$2,416,667	$2,126,667	$290,000
TOTAL	$29,000,000	$33,000,000	$0	$19,333,333	$19,333,333	$9,666,667	$20,533,336 (88%)	$2,800,000 (12%)

buyouts penalties aren't the absolute worst... if you can rid yourself of LTIR contracts you can accumulate cap and by trade deadline you could have access to the full amount of the penalty. Sure you will have to trade for a player to get access to the cap but all contenders make trades.

 

cap rules are strange... you are allowed to exceed the cap as long as you accumulated space and your playing roster isn't over the upper limit. Edmonton used this strategy this year.

[CanuckleHorse]

I’d rather see how he plays after given time to heal remember he was never healthy to begin with and him at a %100 is a very good D-man patience is a virtue just look at San Jose and their situation I’d say Karlson was not going to get them much before this year.

[IBatch]

1 hour ago, Timråfan said:

Isn’t OEL an offensive D? 
That means that he take cares of the few minutes left by Hughes/Hronek that(if they split) take cares of around 50 minutes.

For ten minutes OEL might keep it together especially since he will face the weaker players. That can be very valuable since he got a great toolbox.

But he must be injuryfree…

 

We need three stay at home Ds if so and those are cheaper and seems to be in our depth roster.

 

I forgot, next season we just aim for the playoff so that year OEL can have as evaluation season and we buy him out then if so and save two years of dead cap.

 

If his injury was holding him back this year, and he heels 100%, don't see why we shouldn't just use him.   Doubt we will get much better at 4-5 million from free agency - assuming he's back to last seasons level of play.    OEL-Myers actually worked decently, around 11th overall 5 x 5 and played against top competition.    OEL was thought to be the big reason for that .... not this year that's for sure.    Feel he avoided contact a lot, which could be on purpose just to keep playing through stuff.  
 

As for QHs/Hronek pairing.    I suppose it could work but that's an awfully small set-up.   Not sure who's going to do the dirty work infront of the net and how effective it would be.    OEL/Hronek has some appeal IF OEL can bounce back.   We could bring back Schenn and actually feel there is a very strong chance of that.    Bear ... we might just let him walk if we can't reach a 1 or two years deal with him.    Think Brisbois is making a solid case to start with the big club too.    Myers salary is needed for Hronek and some breathing room.   Don't think we trade him despite some thinking it's easy.   His ten team trade list almost certainly includes all the team with the cap space.   He's not waiving to go to ARI that's for sure.    Maybe CHI...

 

CHI ... maybe a player swap, OEL for Seth Jones.   Sure they'd love to get out of that deal.     With some retention (2) it actually might work. 

[IBatch]

49 minutes ago, CanuckleHorse said:

I’d rather see how he plays after given time to heal remember he was never healthy to begin with and him at a %100 is a very good D-man patience is a virtue just look at San Jose and their situation I’d say Karlson was not going to get them much before this year.

That's the best case for the club.   If OEL can bounce back, then we've already found a top four D.    And maybe OEL/Hronek  becomes a solid pairing for us like Hamhuis/Beiksa.    QHs is so good now, we could play him with anyone almost.    Still need to find one more D to truly compete.    We've got a glut of 5-7 guys.   

[Timråfan]

15 minutes ago, IBatch said:

If his injury was holding him back this year, and he heels 100%, don't see why we shouldn't just use him.   Doubt we will get much better at 4-5 million from free agency - assuming he's back to last seasons level of play.    OEL-Myers actually worked decently, around 11th overall 5 x 5 and played against top competition.    OEL was thought to be the big reason for that .... not this year that's for sure.    Feel he avoided contact a lot, which could be on purpose just to keep playing through stuff.  
 

As for QHs/Hronek pairing.    I suppose it could work but that's an awfully small set-up.   Not sure who's going to do the dirty work infront of the net and how effective it would be.    OEL/Hronek has some appeal IF OEL can bounce back.   We could bring back Schenn and actually feel there is a very strong chance of that.    Bear ... we might just let him walk if we can't reach a 1 or two years deal with him.    Think Brisbois is making a solid case to start with the big club too.    Myers salary is needed for Hronek and some breathing room.   Don't think we trade him despite some thinking it's easy.   His ten team trade list almost certainly includes all the team with the cap space.   He's not waiving to go to ARI that's for sure.    Maybe CHI...

 

CHI ... maybe a player swap, OEL for Seth Jones.   Sure they'd love to get out of that deal.     With some retention (2) it actually might work. 

Isn’t it better to seperate Hughes and Hronek to have a real offensive threat on D all the timre? They can play 25 minutes each. 

[Junkyard Dog]

[cocanuck]

He wont retire and much like all others on the blueline he had no chance playing against other teams top players with the teams defensive structure and no help from the forwards.  He is still a good player that will be fine when healthy and with the team playing better defensively as a whole.  Cant afford to buy him out.  Coaching can make a huge difference for his play

[DrJockitch]

Should we just be copy and pasting full articles from for profit websites?