[Report/Rumour] Elias Pettersson Contract Talks

[Kelly Green]

I'm gonna suggest a two part new contract for the alien,

40M for the first 4 years and 40M for the next 4 years after that.

 

I think that might appeal to him somehow.

[Ted Lasso]

$1M/10 pts x 100+ pts = $10M as a starting point (only one year, but he can likely surpass this as well)

 

Add a premium for buying prime UFA years (+$1.25M)

Tempered by a NTC (-$1M)

 

Guessing 8 x $10.25 AAV = $82M, which will look like a steal in about 3 years.

[Elias Pettersson]

On 4/18/2023 at 9:19 AM, spook007 said:

I'll counter that with Horvat getting $8.5M...

also a C but a tier below EP... But its a great point tbh before we go overboard.

Petey will take less to stay in Vancouver.  Unlike Horvat.  If Petey was a UFA he would get the MacKinnon contract or something around $12 million.  I think he signs in Vancouver at just under $11, $10.75 million for 8 years.  Even at $11 million I would consider that a hometown discount.  With the cap expected to be close to $100 million is 3-4 years, the contract will look even better.  The other thing is that we will have Hughes locked in for 3 more years at Petey's new deal, so by the time Hughes is up for extension the cap should be pushing $100 million...

[spook007]

3 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Petey will take less to stay in Vancouver.  Unlike Horvat.  If Petey was a UFA he would get the MacKinnon contract or something around $12 million.  I think he signs in Vancouver at just under $11, $10.75 million for 8 years.  Even at $11 million I would consider that a hometown discount.  With the cap expected to be close to $100 million is 3-4 years, the contract will look even better.  The other thing is that we will have Hughes locked in for 3 more years at Petey's new deal, so by the time Hughes is up for extension the cap should be pushing $100 million...

Anything under $11M is a good deal. In 2-3 years it will look good. It'll also lock up Petey for the entire prime of his career. Can't ask for anymore than that. 
He's hoping. It would be great to get it put to bed early, when looking for other players FAs etc. 

[CanucksJay]

5 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Petey will take less to stay in Vancouver.  Unlike Horvat.  If Petey was a UFA he would get the MacKinnon contract or something around $12 million.  I think he signs in Vancouver at just under $11, $10.75 million for 8 years.  Even at $11 million I would consider that a hometown discount.  With the cap expected to be close to $100 million is 3-4 years, the contract will look even better.  The other thing is that we will have Hughes locked in for 3 more years at Petey's new deal, so by the time Hughes is up for extension the cap should be pushing $100 million...

Get er done PA! 

 

For old times sake... 

GMMG out GM'd

[Elias Pettersson]

2 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Anything under $11M is a good deal. In 2-3 years it will look good. It'll also lock up Petey for the entire prime of his career. Can't ask for anymore than that. 
He's hoping. It would be great to get it put to bed early, when looking for other players FAs etc. 

Yes, an 8-year deal locks him up until he is 33 years old.  Pretty much his entire prime years.  The Sedins played an additional 5 years after age 33.  So Petey would still have a few years left most likely.  By that time however he would have played 14 years for us, so most likely he retires as a Canuck and the greatest player in Vancouver Canucks history.  This deal will be historic really...

[CanucksJay]

56 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Yes, an 8-year deal locks him up until he is 33 years old.  Pretty much his entire prime years.  The Sedins played an additional 5 years after age 33.  So Petey would still have a few years left most likely.  By that time however he would have played 14 years for us, so most likely he retires as a Canuck and the greatest player in Vancouver Canucks history.  This deal will be historic really...

My guess is that he'll bet on himself and do another 3 year deal @ 10.5m.  That's already over 50m in careeer earning before 28 yo. He'll continue to put up great numbers and maximize as he his hits prime and at that point go for an 8 year deal for 12.5m or perhaps even higher to maximize the cap going up taking him to 36 y/o

 

Yes there's always risk of injury but 50m is already life changing money anyway

 

[saucypass]

4 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

My guess is that he'll bet on himself and do another 3 year deal @ 10.5m.  That's already over 50m in careeer earning before 28 yo. He'll continue to put up great numbers and maximize as he his hits prime and at that point go for an 8 year deal for 12.5m or perhaps even higher to maximize the cap going up taking him to 36 y/o

 

Yes there's always risk of injury but 50m is already life changing money anyway

 

I think his agent admitted that they'll be looking at a longer extension on this one. 

[CanucksJay]

Just now, saucypass said:

I think his agent admitted that they'll be looking at a longer extension on this one. 

I hope so

 

Agents need to get paid too lol

 

If I was strictly thinking about maxmizing income from a long term career perspective.  a 3 year deal followed by an 8 year deal would be the one that makes him richest.

and at 36, if hes still productive, he can sign annual contracts to stay in the league.

 

As a fan though, I'd love to lock him up for the next 8 years before the cap goes up

[5nothincanucksohno]

16 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

I hope so

 

Agents need to get paid too lol

 

If I was strictly thinking about maxmizing income from a long term career perspective.  a 3 year deal followed by an 8 year deal would be the one that makes him richest.

and at 36, if hes still productive, he can sign annual contracts to stay in the league.

 

As a fan though, I'd love to lock him up for the next 8 years before the cap goes up

Agreed, probably why it will have to be 10M - 11.25m per. I am fine with that provided mgmt continues to spend wisely around the edges like they have 

Edited April 19, 2023 by 5nothincanucksohno

[Elias Pettersson]

59 minutes ago, CanucksJay said:

My guess is that he'll bet on himself and do another 3 year deal @ 10.5m.  That's already over 50m in careeer earning before 28 yo. He'll continue to put up great numbers and maximize as he his hits prime and at that point go for an 8 year deal for 12.5m or perhaps even higher to maximize the cap going up taking him to 36 y/o

 

Yes there's always risk of injury but 50m is already life changing money anyway

 

JP Barry admitted they wanted to sign a longer term deal the first time but we didn't have the cap space.  I highly doubt Petey takes that kind of gamble and leaves almost $60 million on the table to try and get a few more million on the next deal.  What if he gets injured?  If you are offered a contract that is close to $90 million you take that and run to the bank.  The money is guaranteed...

[CanucksJay]

44 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

JP Barry admitted they wanted to sign a longer term deal the first time but we didn't have the cap space.  I highly doubt Petey takes that kind of gamble and leaves almost $60 million on the table to try and get a few more million on the next deal.  What if he gets injured?  If you are offered a contract that is close to $90 million you take that and run to the bank.  The money is guaranteed...

I hope so

I didnt realize he only signed short term last time because we had no capspace

I thought he was just betting on himself (rightfully so)

8 year contract at his age is pretty ideal for us

wed have him for his best years

[shiznak]

On 4/17/2023 at 3:04 PM, HKSR said:

JT left $1M on the table.  He could have got $9M for sure.

 

Demko didn't leave anything on the table at the time of signing.  Although one could argue he's worth at least $1M more than his current cap hit.

 

We just hope Petey and Quinn each leave about $1M on the table.

 

If those 4 are providing $1M or more extra value on each of their contracts moving into our playoff/contender years, we'll be a major threat as the core guys would be "saving" us $4M+ in cap value.  That's a solid middle 6 forward right there.

I don’t understand why people keep saying Miller left money on the table or he signed at a discount. He didn’t. He took market value. He was never going to get 9m+ on the open market, unless a team overpays him and I highly doubt any team would have done so.

 

No one would have paid that amount, on a soon to be 29-yrs old player for more than 8 years.

 

If you want some comparable contracts, just look Zibanejad and Wheeler. Both players signed 8m-8.6m at around the same age as Miller.

[HKSR]

1 hour ago, shiznak said:

I don’t understand why people keep saying Miller left money on the table or he signed at a discount. He didn’t. He took market value. He was never going to get 9m+ on the open market, unless a team overpays him and I highly doubt any team would have done so.

 

No one would have paid that amount, on a soon to be 29-yrs old player for more than 8 years.

 

If you want some comparable contracts, just look Zibanejad and Wheeler. Both players signed 8m-8.6m at around the same age as Miller.

He was coming off a 99 point campaign as the 9th highest scorer in the entire NHL.  He would have been paid $9m on the open market.  Not sure why that's so hard to accept.  

[shiznak]

12 minutes ago, HKSR said:

He was coming off a 99 point campaign as the 9th highest scorer in the entire NHL.  He would have been paid $9m on the open market.  Not sure why that's so hard to accept.  

Zibanejad was a PPG the last three seasons with New York, including a 40 goals season, before he signed for 8.5m. Wheeler scored back-to-back 90+ seasons and sign for 8.2m. Those two are the closest similarities to Miller’s production

 

Gaudreau got 9.7m, in the same year Miller re-signed, but scored 16 more points. He also had a better track record in production than Miller overall. He went to a team that was technically in a re-building phase. Unless Miller wants to take the same path as Gaudreau. I highly doubt any team was going to pay him 9m+. 

You rarely see teams giving out these kind of money to players who already reached their peak. History has shown these are bad investments.

[HKSR]

12 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Zibanejad was a PPG the last three seasons with New York, including a 40 goals season, before he signed for 8.5m. Wheeler scored back-to-back 90+ seasons and sign for 8.2m. Those two are the closest similarities to Miller’s production

 

Gaudreau got 9.7m, in the same year Miller re-signed, but scored 16 more points. He also had a better track record in production than Miller overall. He went to a team that was technically in a re-building phase. Unless Miller wants to take the same path as Gaudreau. I highly doubt any team was going to pay him 9m+. 

You rarely see teams giving out these kind of money to players who already reached their peak. History has shown these are bad investments.

If you truly think Miller is only worth what Zibanejad and Wheeler signed for then it's important to note that both signed for around 10.4% of the cap limit.  That puts Miller at $8.6m.  Instead he signed for $8m AAV.  That's leaving $600k on the table.  So yes, Miller left money on the table.  Its obvious he did.

 

If all our core guys left $600k on the table, we've done well (Petey, Hughes, Miller, Hronek, Kuzmenko, Demko ... 6 x $600k = $3.6m left on the table).

 

PS - Wheeler was 3 years older than Miller when he signed his 5 year deal.  Even with that, he was signed to a 10.4% of CH deal.  Zibanejad has never been a top 10 scorer in the NHL.

 

Edited April 20, 2023 by HKSR

[wai_lai416]

i don't know why anyone thinks any of our player left money on the table..

 

Hughes is exceeding his contract.. but that doesn't mean he left money on the table when he signed it. he was coming off a horrendous season defensively with people questioning whether or not he can play defence or more of a tyson barrie all offence no defence.. it was a gamble and based on his last season prior to the contract.. he maximized on it.. imagine if he's a consistent 60-70 point guy but a -25 every season.. would you say he'd be worth almost 8mil? 

 

Miller also didn't leave any money contrary to what people believed. he wouldn't even have hit the open market till this year.. and based on his play?? he's prolly worth 8mil on the open market.. i'm sure he knows he's not a 99 point guy and his assist rate in the 99 point season was an anomly along with the players he played with. also he's going to be 30 when he hits the open market if he never signed.. 

 

demko didn't leave any money on his contract.. he was paid basically on potential and his body of work up to that point didn't warrant 5mil cap hit

 

most players don't really "leave money on the table" unless they are in a low tax state where they'll make more than other teams even if they signed them for 1-1.5mil more.. it's only whether or not the players decides to gamble on themselves or not.

[HKSR]

13 minutes ago, wai_lai416 said:

i don't know why anyone thinks any of our player left money on the table..

 

Hughes is exceeding his contract.. but that doesn't mean he left money on the table when he signed it. he was coming off a horrendous season defensively with people questioning whether or not he can play defence or more of a tyson barrie all offence no defence.. it was a gamble and based on his last season prior to the contract.. he maximized on it.. imagine if he's a consistent 60-70 point guy but a -25 every season.. would you say he'd be worth almost 8mil? 

 

Miller also didn't leave any money contrary to what people believed. he wouldn't even have hit the open market till this year.. and based on his play?? he's prolly worth 8mil on the open market.. i'm sure he knows he's not a 99 point guy and his assist rate in the 99 point season was an anomly along with the players he played with. also he's going to be 30 when he hits the open market if he never signed.. 

 

demko didn't leave any money on his contract.. he was paid basically on potential and his body of work up to that point didn't warrant 5mil cap hit

 

most players don't really "leave money on the table" unless they are in a low tax state where they'll make more than other teams even if they signed them for 1-1.5mil more.. it's only whether or not the players decides to gamble on themselves or not.

Except Miller's 82 points this season would be very, very comparable to Zibanejad's season before he signed his 8.5m deal.  Not sure why Miller would be worth any less than that, so he STILL would have left $500k on the table.  No matter how you spin it, Miller left money on the table.

[shiznak]

46 minutes ago, HKSR said:

If you truly think Miller is only worth what Zibanejad and Wheeler signed for then it's important to note that both signed for around 10.4% of the cap limit.  That puts Miller at $8.6m.  Instead he signed for $8m AAV.  That's leaving $600k on the table.  So yes, Miller left money on the table.  Its obvious he did.

 

If all our core guys left $600k on the table, we've done well (Petey, Hughes, Miller, Hronek, Kuzmenko, Demko ... 6 x $600k = $3.6m left on the table).

 

PS - Wheeler was 3 years older than Miller when he signed his 5 year deal.  Even with that, he was signed to a 10.4% of CH deal.  Zibanejad has never been a top 10 scorer in the NHL.

 

I’m not so sure you know what market value is. A half of a million isn’t going to make a huge difference and it certainly isn’t a discount. A player who produce 80-90 points, usually comes around 8-9m anyway.
 

I’ve always said, he’s going to get between 8-8.5m on the open market, because no one is going to fork up 9m+ on a player that had a career year, who will be turning 29yrs old. Again bad investment.

 

If he took the Kadri deal or just under 8m. That would have been a discount. 

Edited April 20, 2023 by shiznak

[wai_lai416]

43 minutes ago, HKSR said:

Except Miller's 82 points this season would be very, very comparable to Zibanejad's season before he signed his 8.5m deal.  Not sure why Miller would be worth any less than that, so he STILL would have left $500k on the table.  No matter how you spin it, Miller left money on the table.

so what about his 75 points in 56 game season? plus being a year younger and 10x better than miller defensively? if they both enter ufa? zib will get more than miller pretty much every single time?