[Report/Rumour] Elias Pettersson Contract Talks

[Elias Pettersson]

9 hours ago, shiznak said:

Zibanejad was a PPG the last three seasons with New York, including a 40 goals season, before he signed for 8.5m. Wheeler scored back-to-back 90+ seasons and sign for 8.2m. Those two are the closest similarities to Miller’s production

 

Gaudreau got 9.7m, in the same year Miller re-signed, but scored 16 more points. He also had a better track record in production than Miller overall. He went to a team that was technically in a re-building phase. Unless Miller wants to take the same path as Gaudreau. I highly doubt any team was going to pay him 9m+. 

You rarely see teams giving out these kind of money to players who already reached their peak. History has shown these are bad investments.

Miller was coming off a 99-point season, that is more than a PPG like Zibanejad.  Blake Wheeler was 33 years old when he signed his 8.5 contract.  Miller will be 30.  That's a big difference.  Gaudreau was offered 10.5x8 by Calgary and walked away.  

 

Miller as a UFA after a 99-point season easily gets $9 million per year.  

[HKSR]

8 hours ago, shiznak said:

I’m not so sure you know what market value is. A half of a million isn’t going to make a huge difference and it certainly isn’t a discount. A player who produce 80-90 points, usually comes around 8-9m anyway.
 

I’ve always said, he’s going to get between 8-8.5m on the open market, because no one is going to fork up 9m+ on a player that had a career year, who will be turning 29yrs old. Again bad investment.

 

If he took the Kadri deal or just under 8m. That would have been a discount. 

$500k per year over a 8 year deal is $4m.  You sure as hell better believe that's a discount lmao.  Stop looking at a yearly average.  This is total dollars for the player.  

 

As @Elias Petterssonsaid above, 99 points and 9th in scoring in the NHL is a major difference.  If you don't see that, nothing I can do for ya.

[shiznak]

9 hours ago, HKSR said:

$500k per year over a 8 year deal is $4m.  You sure as hell better believe that's a discount lmao.  Stop looking at a yearly average.  This is total dollars for the player.  

 

As @Elias Petterssonsaid above, 99 points and 9th in scoring in the NHL is a major difference.  If you don't see that, nothing I can do for ya.

If you gather all the Coke-Cola beverages from various stores, they all average the same price. Maybe a few cents off. That’s market value. But then you go to a dollar store and it’s more than a whole dollar off. That’s a discount. The 500k over 8 years is irrelevant. The cap will increase, his production will drop, and the market value will rise eventually over time. It’ll be like you buying that Coke drink and not drinking it for 8 years. 

 

10 hours ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Miller was coming off a 99-point season, that is more than a PPG like Zibanejad.  Blake Wheeler was 33 years old when he signed his 8.5 contract.  Miller will be 30.  That's a big difference.  Gaudreau was offered 10.5x8 by Calgary and walked away.  

 

Miller as a UFA after a 99-point season easily gets $9 million per year.  

Kadri was scoring at an exact same rate as Miller and got 7m per year and guess what he was 30yrs old. Wheeler also got 3 less years. In his last three seasons with the Rangers, Zibanejad averages more than Miller in his last three seasons with the Canucks.
 

Teams don’t go paying a player for an anomaly year. Which is why Kadri only got 7m.

Edited April 20, 2023 by shiznak

[HKSR]

10 minutes ago, shiznak said:

If you gather all the Coke-Cola beverages from various stores, they all average the same price. Maybe a few cents off. That’s market value. But then you go to a dollar store and it’s more than a whole dollar off. That’s a discount. The 500k over 8 years is irrelevant. The cap will increase, his production will drop, and the market value will rise eventually over time. It’ll be like you buying that Coke drink and not drinking it for 8 years. 

 

Kadri was scoring at an exact same rate as Miller and got 7m per year and guess what he was 30yrs old. Wheeler also got 3 less years. In his last three seasons with the Rangers, Zibanejad averages more than Miller in his last three seasons with the Canucks.
 

Teams don’t go paying a player for an anomaly year. Which is why Kadri only got 7m.

What are you talking about?  The 500k over 8 years is VERY relevant.  If you gather all the Coca Cola beverages from one store and they have 200 cans at $3.50 each, it'll cost you $700.  If you goto a dollar store and they're $0.50 off for 200 cans, it'll cost you $600.  You just saved $100.  That's a discount.  Might not be as big of a discount as $1, but it's STILL a discount.  I don't think you understand what a discount is lol

 

Teams don't go paying a player for an anomaly year?  Someone just got paid $68M for an anomaly year.  I can tell you that for free.

[shiznak]

6 minutes ago, HKSR said:

What are you talking about?  The 500k over 8 years is VERY relevant.  If you gather all the Coca Cola beverages from one store and they have 200 cans at $3.50 each, it'll cost you $700.  If you goto a dollar store and they're $0.50 off for 200 cans, it'll cost you $600.  You just saved $100.  That's a discount.  Might not be as big of a discount as $1, but it's STILL a discount.  I don't think you understand what a discount is lol

 

Teams don't go paying a player for an anomaly year?  Someone just got paid $68M for an anomaly year.  I can tell you that for free.

So, we agree that buying a Coke product from a dollar store is a discount. Miller isn’t the Coke product from the dollar store, in this situation.
 

You also ignore the fact that I said, in time, the market value will eventually rise. So, your $100 discount, will slow drop to $50-$70, when Coke prices increases. I guess you can call that a discount, OVER TIME. I doubt you’ll lose sleep over that though.

 

There’s no doubt NYI overpaid, because they didn’t want the risk of him leaving.

 

[Alflives]

47 minutes ago, shiznak said:

If you gather all the Coke-Cola beverages from various stores, they all average the same price. Maybe a few cents off. That’s market value. But then you go to a dollar store and it’s more than a whole dollar off. That’s a discount. The 500k over 8 years is irrelevant. The cap will increase, his production will drop, and the market value will rise eventually over time. It’ll be like you buying that Coke drink and not drinking it for 8 years. 

 

Kadri was scoring at an exact same rate as Miller and got 7m per year and guess what he was 30yrs old. Wheeler also got 3 less years. In his last three seasons with the Rangers, Zibanejad averages more than Miller in his last three seasons with the Canucks.
 

Teams don’t go paying a player for an anomaly year. Which is why Kadri only got 7m.

Kadri averaged 51 points over the three years ending with his contract of 7 per. 
JTM averaged 73 points during that time. 
Miller would have gotten 9 x 7 on the open market. He signed a hometown discount. 
Bo averaged 50 points. He got grossly overpaid by Lou. He should be less than Kadri. So about 6 per for Bo. Clearly Bo got the extra 2.5 per for the “Little Things” he does. 

Edited April 20, 2023 by Alflives

[JeremyCuddles]

Love a good Miller thread.

[NHL97OneTimer]

What Petey is worth and what a contending team needs to pay are two different things.  I don't think Petey is a discount kind of guy (but I hope he is) and Miller's contract sets a pretty high pay level that Petey will want to well exceed.  So this is where it gets even more interesting with this retool team.  My guess is that Petey signs for $9.5M/yr x 8 years, which is giving him the benefit of the doubt that he will drop the price a tad.  If we pay him $12M/yr, good luck in seeing a contender in this market for a long time.

[Elias Pettersson]

1 hour ago, shiznak said:

Teams don’t go paying a player for an anomaly year. Which is why Kadri only got 7m.

 

[HKSR]

2 hours ago, shiznak said:

So, we agree that buying a Coke product from a dollar store is a discount. Miller isn’t the Coke product from the dollar store, in this situation.
 

You also ignore the fact that I said, in time, the market value will eventually rise. So, your $100 discount, will slow drop to $50-$70, when Coke prices increases. I guess you can call that a discount, OVER TIME. I doubt you’ll lose sleep over that though.

 

There’s no doubt NYI overpaid, because they didn’t want the risk of him leaving.

 

If Miller isn't the coke product, what's the coke product then?

 

$70 is 10% of the original proposed cost of $700.  The only reason you wouldn't lose sleep over it is because we're talking about coke cans lmao.  Add 5 zeroes to the numbers and tell me if it'll hurt or not.

 

Teams overpay ALL the time because they want to improve their team. 

[shiznak]

25 minutes ago, HKSR said:

If Miller isn't the coke product, what's the coke product then?

 

$70 is 10% of the original proposed cost of $700.  The only reason you wouldn't lose sleep over it is because we're talking about coke cans lmao.  Add 5 zeroes to the numbers and tell me if it'll hurt or not.

 

Teams overpay ALL the time because they want to improve their team. 

Do you want another analogy?

 

You buy a house for 1.5m, over time the house marketing rises, and now sells for 2m. Does that mean you bought your house at a discount? No. It means you bought it when the house market was low and around 1.5m…..…….some odd years ago.

 

I stated overpaying is not a good investment. Everyone knows that Horvat contract isn’t going to look good down the road. Which is why Miller was probably never going to get 9m+ on the open market. Especially, when he is going to be 30, when he hits UFA. 

[HKSR]

11 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Do you want another analogy?

 

You buy a house for 1.5m, over time the house marketing rises, and now sells for 2m. Does that mean you bought your house at a discount? No. It means you bought it when the house market was low and around 1.5m…..…….some odd years ago.

 

I stated overpaying is not a good investment. Everyone knows that Horvat contract isn’t going to look good down the road. Which is why Miller was probably never going to get 9m+ on the open market. Especially, when he is going to be 30, when he hits UFA. 

That's a stupid analogy.  The way it should go is the house is worth 1.5m today and you bought it today for 1.4m.  What it does from here on out has nothing to do with the fact you got it at a discount when you bought it.  

 

Over time if the value of the house goes down, it doesn't change the fact you bought it for less than it was worth AT THAT TIME.  No different than if Miller is worth less today than he was at the moment his contract was signed (immediately after a 99 point campaign).

[shiznak]

35 minutes ago, HKSR said:

That's a stupid analogy.  The way it should go is the house is worth 1.5m today and you bought it today for 1.4m.  What it does from here on out has nothing to do with the fact you got it at a discount when you bought it.  

 

Over time if the value of the house goes down, it doesn't change the fact you bought it for less than it was worth AT THAT TIME.  No different than if Miller is worth less today than he was at the moment his contract was signed (immediately after a 99 point campaign).

If there were 5 similar houses. House one is 1.5m. House two; 1.4m, House three; 1.6m. House four; .800k. House five; 2m. House 1-3 are marked as market valued houses. Miller fits in that category. At that time saving .100k-200k isn’t a difference. Maybe house three has an extra bathroom or bigger backyard, but is it worth paying an extra .200k?

 

At the time Miller market value was at 8-9m, for a 80-90 point player. I gave two comparable examples on why his value is at that range. Do teams overpay for players, who don’t hold their value? Sure, but those are bad investments. How hard is that to understand? 
 

Do you honestly think players/agents go into a negotiation and say “You can sign me at a discount so I can stay.”?

Edited April 21, 2023 by shiznak

[Elias Pettersson]

24 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Do you want another analogy?

 

You buy a house for 1.5m, over time the house marketing rises, and now sells for 2m. Does that mean you bought your house at a discount? No. It means you bought it when the house market was low and around 1.5m…..…….some odd years ago.

 

I stated overpaying is not a good investment. Everyone knows that Horvat contract isn’t going to look good down the road. Which is why Miller was probably never going to get 9m+ on the open market. Especially, when he is going to be 30, when he hits UFA. 

Seravalli said there was a team that was willing to pay BO $9 million. So Miller after a 99 point season is easily getting $9 million. He was never going to be a UFA. If the Canucks couldn’t sign him they would have traded him like they did with BO and the new team that Miller went to would have paid him the $9 million. 
 

Even this year at $8 million for 7 years Pittsburgh was willing to trade for him. And I’m sure there would be other teams interested if Vancouver actually put Miller on the market. 
 

Since Tocchet took over Miller is on a pace for 96 points. So the only blip he’s had was when he had a slow start this year with Boudreau wanting to play pond hockey. Which frustrated Miller and he admitted this in the post season presser. 
 

Miller is a better overall player than Zibanejad. He has scored at an almost even clip points wise over the last 4 years (1.07 PPG versus 1.06 PPG), he is better in the faceoff circle, more hits, more blocks, more fights, better penalty killer. Miller also carries his line and makes his linemates better. He’s scoring at a 96 point pace even with Phil Di Giuseppe as his linemate. Meanwhile Zibanejad has been playing with Artemi Panarin for the last 4 years which has pumped up his numbers. He wasn’t even a PPG player until Panarin arrived.  

[shiznak]

12 minutes ago, Elias Pettersson said:

Miller is a better overall player than Zibanejad. He has scored at an almost even clip points wise over the last 4 years (1.07 PPG versus 1.06 PPG), he is better in the faceoff circle, more hits, more blocks, more fights, better penalty killer. Miller also carries his line and makes his linemates better. He’s scoring at a 96 point pace even with Phil Di Giuseppe as his linemate. Meanwhile Zibanejad has been playing with Artemi Panarin for the last 4 years which has pumped up his numbers. He wasn’t even a PPG player until Panarin arrived.  

Zibanejad rarely plays with Panarin 5on5. Panarin most recent centermen this season was Trocheck and before that, Strome. Miller wasn’t a PPG player until he got here, playing first line minutes with Pettersson and Boeser. Just like how Zibanejad didn’t produce at a PPG rate until he was getting first line minutes. In Ottawa he was primarily used as a tweener, playing middle six minutes. 

[Elias Pettersson]

53 minutes ago, shiznak said:

Zibanejad rarely plays with Panarin 5on5. Panarin most recent centermen this season was Trocheck and before that, Strome. Miller wasn’t a PPG player until he got here, playing first line minutes with Pettersson and Boeser. Just like how Zibanejad didn’t produce at a PPG rate until he was getting first line minutes. In Ottawa he was primarily used as a tweener, playing middle six minutes. 

Regardless of who is playing with who, Zibanejad signed his 8.5x8 contract extension on October 10, 2021, the year after he scored 50 points in 56 games.  He wasn't even at a PPG when he signed that contract extension.  Miller after a 99-point season is easily getting $9 million and maybe even 9.5x7 if he was a UFA last summer...

Edited April 21, 2023 by Elias Pettersson

[CaptKirk888]

Just give him what he wants. It would be pure insanity to do else whise

Edited April 21, 2023 by CaptKirk888

[spook007]

On 4/19/2023 at 8:55 PM, Elias Pettersson said:

JP Barry admitted they wanted to sign a longer term deal the first time but we didn't have the cap space.  I highly doubt Petey takes that kind of gamble and leaves almost $60 million on the table to try and get a few more million on the next deal.  What if he gets injured?  If you are offered a contract that is close to $90 million you take that and run to the bank.  The money is guaranteed...

Fun story I heard yesterday.

Micah Richards (played for Man City) got offered a 5 year contract worth 100K /week, but he was behind Zabaletta in the picking order, so he said no.

Signed for Aston Villa at less pay, just to play. Unfortunately Villa got relegated and his wages halved as a result... so from 100K guaranteed/ weekly for 5 years to 30K...

 

Point being, you've got to strike, while the iron is hot....

 

Gambling on what happens in 3 years is a big risk.

[Elias Pettersson]

3 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Fun story I heard yesterday.

Micah Richards (played for Man City) got offered a 5 year contract worth 100K /week, but he was behind Zabaletta in the picking order, so he said no.

Signed for Aston Villa at less pay, just to play. Unfortunately Villa got relegated and his wages halved as a result... so from 100K guaranteed/ weekly for 5 years to 30K...

 

Point being, you've got to strike, while the iron is hot....

 

Gambling on what happens in 3 years is a big risk.

Who is your team Spook?  ManCity?  I like the Italian teams.  Looks like they will have 4 Italian teams in the Champions League and Europa League.  

[N4ZZY]

2 hours ago, spook007 said:

Fun story I heard yesterday.

Micah Richards (played for Man City) got offered a 5 year contract worth 100K /week, but he was behind Zabaletta in the picking order, so he said no.

Signed for Aston Villa at less pay, just to play. Unfortunately Villa got relegated and his wages halved as a result... so from 100K guaranteed/ weekly for 5 years to 30K...

 

Point being, you've got to strike, while the iron is hot....

 

Gambling on what happens in 3 years is a big risk.

I mean Johnny Gadreau turned down $80M from the Flames….