[Report/Rumour] Elias Pettersson Contract Talks

[spook007]

1 hour ago, Alflives said:

That would be fantastic for us. I think it’s going to be closer to the 88 million total though. 

$84M 

[Alflives]

22 minutes ago, spook007 said:

$84M 

Yup. 10.5-11 x 8 should get us prime Petey.

[IBatch]

My bet is he signs for 10.25 x 8.    Think that's reasonable, won't hurt the team, is fair too.   He's not Mathews scoring a ton of goals. and he's not Barkov stopping a bunch of goals either.   Believe we overrate our players and can't help it.  

[IBatch]

3 hours ago, spook007 said:

Add to that the tax issues, and that alone should make Peteys deal go higher. 
 

PA has been good at getting value for money so far, but they don't wanna piss their priced asset off by lowballing him like Horvat. 

Thankfully Barzal and co also have jock tax so aren't too far behind where Vancouver are.    For sure they won't want to low ball.   To me it's not lowballing starting  with a 9 and working from there.   It's one season.   Will EP bank on another full season and 100 plus points and go for broke?   Or take a deal before the season is done.  Risks for both sides.  

[Metal Face Doom]

He's going to get 11.  

[spook007]

6 hours ago, IBatch said:

Thankfully Barzal and co also have jock tax so aren't too far behind where Vancouver are.    For sure they won't want to low ball.   To me it's not lowballing starting  with a 9 and working from there.   It's one season.   Will EP bank on another full season and 100 plus points and go for broke?   Or take a deal before the season is done.  Risks for both sides.  

I do expect, when all is said and done, he'll be looking at around $10.5-11M.

 

When they start negotiations, the agents will smell blood. Everyone now expects the CAP to increase next year and the years after substantially. 

I doubt the agents are gonna be satisfied with, what will look like a below market value contract in 2-3 years. 

However if they get him to sign for under $10.5M I'd consider it a win for us. It may also help in the negotiations with other RFAs/UFAs...

 

This will be the most interesting/important contract in the immediate future of this organisation.

[GhostsOf1994]

Just a few tidbits on Petey and where he ranks overall on a few things.

 

out of the legit full time center's Petey sits 4th in points, 4th in ppg%.

 

he is currently the 17th highest paid Center.

 

I feel better comparisons for contracts are Brayden Point and Jack Eichel, Barzal has regressed points wise every season since his first.

 

Eichel makes 10m per, Point 9m per(FLA tax%) and we can easily argue Eichel is overpaid for what he is. Point is a little more tricky as he has perhaps 2 future hall of famers in Stamkos and Kucherov that he most definitely benefits from playing with.

 

As unfortunate for the organization as this may sound, it looks like Petey could ask for north of 11per. 

 

Hopefully closer to 10, Petey wants to win and if everyone takes a little less then the whole team benefits as a whole.(Miller, Hughes, Kuzmenko)

[Boudrias]

15 hours ago, IBatch said:

Thankfully Barzal and co also have jock tax so aren't too far behind where Vancouver are.    For sure they won't want to low ball.   To me it's not lowballing starting  with a 9 and working from there.   It's one season.   Will EP bank on another full season and 100 plus points and go for broke?   Or take a deal before the season is done.  Risks for both sides.  

If Petey has a strong World's it will influence how big his new contract. Totally agree with your take on how management should approach valuing his worth. The other aside would be that Petey wants to win a Cup. Many examples of where growing teams are capped out by huge contracts to a selected few. It might temper his ask. IMHO Canucks have to start with the Miller contract and build from there.

 

CAP grows by $1 mil next year and suggestions of $5 mil the year after. Still rumours of a one time contract buyout across the league to help with CAP compliance. Of course that talk is from the richer clubs who have already overspent. They do have influence. Strong teams spread across the NHL do drive revenue so I don't rule it out. I suggest those teams who do not exercise such a 'buyout' should get a lottery ticket on a supplemental 

2 nd round draft bonus. Yup, teams could have 2 picks in the 2nd round as compensation for being CAP compliant. 

[IBatch]

8 hours ago, spook007 said:

I do expect, when all is said and done, he'll be looking at around $10.5-11M.

 

When they start negotiations, the agents will smell blood. Everyone now expects the CAP to increase next year and the years after substantially. 

I doubt the agents are gonna be satisfied with, what will look like a below market value contract in 2-3 years. 

However if they get him to sign for under $10.5M I'd consider it a win for us. It may also help in the negotiations with other RFAs/UFAs...

 

This will be the most interesting/important contract in the immediate future of this organisation.

You bet.   It was nice that both Barzal's and MT's contracts were brought up as comps, and agree it likely will end up somewhere in the 10-11 and that is actually a good deal for us as well.    

 

Also  consider it a win if it comes in less than 10.5 (which seems fair for sure).   EP deserves to be the highest paid player on the team.    If they do it based on net income ... to earn the same as MT, the Canucks would need to offer EP low 11's .. not sure if they'd also give him 68 million in signing bonuses, that give him a substantial amount of his money upfront, he can then watch it grow a ton before his deal is up.   Agents and GMs have ways to negotiate lower cap hits and bigger wallets for the players for sure, front loading does this, as do clauses for sure.   36.58% versus 53% tax bracket is quite the difference in net pay.  At 9.5, it's 1,599,579 less taxes in Florida than Vancouver.  

 

It's a pet peeve of mine.    Miller's deal looks even better once you consider that  he's making what guys in TB, FLD,  Dallas, Seattle and Vegas do at around 6.7...we'd be stoked to have him at that price, and he's at a below market value  price at 8 x 7 .    He's also lost over 550k per year on his current deal since been traded from TB.   NMC are so important to players in no state tax arenas, and why TB  deals looks cheaper then it really is.    They for sure are making the same or more than what they'd make in TO (Stamkos) for example,  adding a couple million per year. 

 

 

 To me anyone who wants to stay and play in Vancouver at cap hits that seem fair at first glance - before tax considerations, need to be treated like gold from a fans perspective.    COL pays just over 40%.   Same with CHI and PIT.   And WSH.   Only CAL and EDM pay taxes similar or even less then  some US teams (47.6%)... Canucks, TO and MTL are the hardest hit.    As an aside, during peak Sedin era our taxes were the same as the Alberta teams, which are 5.4% less.    

 

One thing worth noting it is a sliding scale.   BC's 750k tax bracket is 47.15%... Still a big difference though.   

 

For EP if the team starts at 9.75 x 8 it wouldn't be so bad until taxes are considered.   If that becomes a sticky part on EPs side, well 11.25 isn't unreasonable really. 

[IBatch]

6 hours ago, GhostsOf1994 said:

Just a few tidbits on Petey and where he ranks overall on a few things.

 

out of the legit full time center's Petey sits 4th in points, 4th in ppg%.

 

he is currently the 17th highest paid Center.

 

I feel better comparisons for contracts are Brayden Point and Jack Eichel, Barzal has regressed points wise every season since his first.

 

Eichel makes 10m per, Point 9m per(FLA tax%) and we can easily argue Eichel is overpaid for what he is. Point is a little more tricky as he has perhaps 2 future hall of famers in Stamkos and Kucherov that he most definitely benefits from playing with.

 

As unfortunate for the organization as this may sound, it looks like Petey could ask for north of 11per. 

 

Hopefully closer to 10, Petey wants to win and if everyone takes a little less then the whole team benefits as a whole.(Miller, Hughes, Kuzmenko)

As far as Point goes, he was the teams second line center, for sometime actually, and filled in for Stamkos when injured (happened often enough).   Very deserving of his deal.    And they managed to get great cap relief before his legacy contract.    He's an under the radar guy.   A proven playoff performer as well.   EP is actually a very good comp with Point.  

 

Do wonder how EP would do with better wingers.   Something other top centres often have.    Doesn't feast on the power play like some either.    This was his break out year.   And two seasons in a row now without an injury.    Hasn't had to play a full season often, and only one playoffs so far.   Durability was for sure a legit question mark early in his career and may still have some validity.   In the end if he signed for 12 million, it still would be tough not to be happy.   This team lives or dies depending on what he does.    More so than QHs or Demko.  

 

Believe he will be happy with a mid 10's deal.    And the club won't be impacted negatively either.    Agree with Spook anything less then 10.5 is a win for the club, in the same way it was a win for the club signing Miller to 8.    For sure below market value as an RFA/UFA 8 year deal.    And hope it's an 8 year deal not a 6 or 7.   Not many players in our history I could say the same thing about that way.     Including the Sedins.   We didn't really know what we had with them at the same age. 

 

Edit:  As an aside, Miller for sure left money on the table.    The team didn't think they could sign him ... after his 99 point season.   And were stoked they could.   And he did leave money on the table given what others  got paid (Kadri).   Huberdeau.   Johnny Hockey.   MT.  etc etc.    Back then most thought his salary would start with a 9.   Or around that.   That one million plus left was leadership.   Horvat did not follow suit at all.    Let's hope EP does the exact same.   It takes a group of guys willing to sacrifice their bank accounts to win a cup.  

 

A big part of the elephant in the club house, is overpaid players eating up cap space.    It's a problem a lot of teams have.   Brock should be 30/35 given his pay scale.    Garland is actually close to par.    Beau well if he scores 40 he's fine actually.   Schenn shouldn't have to be a guy making league minimum to balance the books and keep his career alive.   There are a lot of Schenn's in the league.  Truly think the NHLPA and the League need to work out a system when guys seriously underperform compared to their pay, should be allowed an exit.   Not a buyout.   But the player loses his salary and the team can bank that cap or something like that.    There isn't a job i've ever been part of, in the private sector, where a person is allowed to so seriously underperform and get his paycheque anyways.    The system isn't perfect that's for sure.    But it could be improved on and same with the product.    Expansion needs to be put on ice for a decade at least.   Finally the talent is catching up to the number of jobs.   

Edited April 23, 2023 by IBatch

[RUPERTKBD]

I think most people are being pretty realistic, (had to double check to make sure I was on CDC ) I believe the number will likely be between 10-11 and the term will be around 8 years, give or take.

 

The only worry that I would have is that Huggy might feel he is being underpaid. I understand he signed in good faith and that the contract was signed when he was playing poorly in his own end, but players are human and I could see a scenario where he wonders if it's fair that Petey makes 3 million more than he does...

Edited April 23, 2023 by RUPERTKBD

[GhostsOf1994]

1 hour ago, IBatch said:

As far as Point goes, he was the teams second line center, for sometime actually, and filled in for Stamkos when injured (happened often enough).   Very deserving of his deal.    And they managed to get great cap relief before his legacy contract.    He's an under the radar guy.   A proven playoff performer as well.   EP is actually a very good comp with Point.  

 

Do wonder how EP would do with better wingers.   Something other top centres often have.    Doesn't feast on the power play like some either.    This was his break out year.   And two seasons in a row now without an injury.    Hasn't had to play a full season often, and only one playoffs so far.   Durability was for sure a legit question mark early in his career and may still have some validity.   In the end if he signed for 12 million, it still would be tough not to be happy.   This team lives or dies depending on what he does.    More so than QHs or Demko.  

 

Believe he will be happy with a mid 10's deal.    And the club won't be impacted negatively either.    Agree with Spook anything less then 10.5 is a win for the club, in the same way it was a win for the club signing Miller to 8.    For sure below market value as an RFA/UFA 8 year deal.    And hope it's an 8 year deal not a 6 or 7.   Not many players in our history I could say the same thing about that way.     Including the Sedins.   We didn't really know what we had with them at the same age. 

 

Edit:  As an aside, Miller for sure left money on the table.    The team didn't think they could sign him ... after his 99 point season.   And were stoked they could.   And he did leave money on the table given what others  got paid (Kadri).   Huberdeau.   Johnny Hockey.   MT.  etc etc.    Back then most thought his salary would start with a 9.   Or around that.   That one million plus left was leadership.   Horvat did not follow suit at all.    Let's hope EP does the exact same.   It takes a group of guys willing to sacrifice their bank accounts to win a cup.  

 

A big part of the elephant in the club house, is overpaid players eating up cap space.    It's a problem a lot of teams have.   Brock should be 30/35 given his pay scale.    Garland is actually close to par.    Beau well if he scores 40 he's fine actually.   Schenn shouldn't have to be a guy making league minimum to balance the books and keep his career alive.   There are a lot of Schenn's in the league.  Truly think the NHLPA and the League need to work out a system when guys seriously underperform compared to their pay, should be allowed an exit.   Not a buyout.   But the player loses his salary and the team can bank that cap or something like that.    There isn't a job i've ever been part of, in the private sector, where a person is allowed to so seriously underperform and get his paycheque anyways.    The system isn't perfect that's for sure.    But it could be improved on and same with the product.    Expansion needs to be put on ice for a decade at least.   Finally the talent is catching up to the number of jobs.   

Well said! Hopefully Kuzmenko comes in closer to NHL level endurance levels. he was often out of gas and would get into tricky predicaments.

 

I like the idea of minimal performance standards to receive you pay in full. tor example, a player signs for 6-8 years at a 100 point pace but only puts up 60ish points should be paid that percentage of the aav or easily terminate after 2 years for not meeting the points totals.

 

 

Petey & Kuzmenko is a solid pairing, have Miller as 2 c who has good/ decent chemistry with Mikheyev, Garland & Boeser.

 

that leaves Beauvillier, Podkolzin, Hoglander & Kravtsov. 

 

thats 10 players for the top 9 positions, I hope 1 or 2 wingers are moved to help at 3c and Defence. 

[IBatch]

6 hours ago, RUPERTKBD said:

I think most people are being pretty realistic, (had to double check to make sure I was on CDC ) I believe the number will likely be between 10-11 and the term will be around 8 years, give or take.

 

The only worry that I would have is that Huggy might feel he is being underpaid. I understand he signed in good faith and that the contract was signed when he was playing poorly in his own end, but players are human and I could see a scenario where he wonders if it's fair that Petey makes 3 million more than he does...

Imagine how Schenn feels too.   But at least he's made his millions.    QHs shouldn't be too upset,  he's still getting a pretty hefty salary for an RFA.   EP earned 600 or so K less his first three years, and likely making 2.5-3 more QHs final 3 years of six - BUT, QHs like Horvat, will enter his UFA years a young man and totally cash out, just like Doughty and EK did. 

Edited April 23, 2023 by IBatch

[spook007]

17 hours ago, GhostsOf1994 said:

Well said! Hopefully Kuzmenko comes in closer to NHL level endurance levels. he was often out of gas and would get into tricky predicaments.

 

I like the idea of minimal performance standards to receive you pay in full. tor example, a player signs for 6-8 years at a 100 point pace but only puts up 60ish points should be paid that percentage of the aav or easily terminate after 2 years for not meeting the points totals.

 

 

Petey & Kuzmenko is a solid pairing, have Miller as 2 c who has good/ decent chemistry with Mikheyev, Garland & Boeser.

 

that leaves Beauvillier, Podkolzin, Hoglander & Kravtsov. 

 

thats 10 players for the top 9 positions, I hope 1 or 2 wingers are moved to help at 3c and Defence. 

While it would be good to see player, who suddenly decide to take an extended 'vacation' from playing decent hockey, being paid accordingly, there is absolutely no way the players would sign a contract, where, if you don't reach a certain standard, you'll get a reduction in pay, UNLESS, they are paid way over the top to start with. 
 

There are clubs in football, who has build into the contract that if certain target aren't met a reduction in salary will be the out come. 
miss C/L football, relegation etc.  

But in order to accept such conditions, they are getting above normal salaries to sign for these. 
 

IE Petey would not sign an $10M contract if he might only get $8M the year after... He would demand $12M to ensure he was safe...

 

It would also be impossible to work with it within a cap system. 
 

PS. I love the idea though, especially the one about being able to terminate after 2 years, if certain standards aren't met. 

Edited April 24, 2023 by spook007

[combover]

10.5-11 

can’t see him signing for less but can see him holding out for more. 
 

 

[N4ZZY]

6 hours ago, combover said:

but can see him holding out for more. 

hopefully not, especially if he wants to win here as soon as next season. everyone's gotta be there at training camp ready to go. 

 

[Timråfan]

On 4/23/2023 at 6:14 PM, GhostsOf1994 said:

 

 

I like the idea of minimal performance standards to receive you pay in full. tor example, a player signs for 6-8 years at a 100 point pace but only puts up 60ish points should be paid that percentage of the aav or easily terminate after 2 years for not meeting the points totals.

 

It’s tricky… Take OEL par example. He would get a lot of points if he were on PP1 all the time. Who to blame that he was traded to a team with a 1st LHD that takes away almost all the time he can play with the best to get those easy points. 

Then, how do you value injuries that affect outcome? 
It is very strange to lay the burdon completely on the player.

The GM, coach has importance regarding this.

[spook007]

46 minutes ago, Timråfan said:

It’s tricky… Take OEL par example. He would get a lot of points if he were on PP1 all the time. Who to blame that he was traded to a team with a 1st LHD that takes away almost all the time he can play with the best to get those easy points. 

Then, how do you value injuries that affect outcome? 
It is very strange to lay the burdon completely on the player.

The GM, coach has importance regarding this.

Not only that, how do you compare men to forwards? Should a stay at home Dman not be paid because he doesn't get many points... He's job is to defend, which in most cases means less out put. Tanev a good example.

 

Regardless the NHLPA would never accept this, unless they got a massive raise to compensate for the loss of earnings...

[Timråfan]

59 minutes ago, spook007 said:

Not only that, how do you compare men to forwards? Should a stay at home Dman not be paid because he doesn't get many points... He's job is to defend, which in most cases means less out put. Tanev a good example.

 

Regardless the NHLPA would never accept this, unless they got a massive raise to compensate for the loss of earnings...

It seems the best way is to allow one buyout per (2 or 3)year(s)

[-Vintage Canuck-]

Elias Pettersson’s preference is to stay with the Vancouver Canucks long-term, his agent says.

 

J.P. Barry, Pettersson’s agent and one of the biggest agents in hockey, spoke positively to the Got Yer Back podcast Wednesday morning about Pettersson’s situation.

 

“We’ve stayed in contact,” Barry told Pierre LeBrun and Ryan Rishaug. “Elias is thinking about it. I think it’s going to happen, we’re going to sit down this summer. We’re going to talk about staying there long term. That is the plan right now.”

 

Pettersson’s current contract, which carries a cap hit of $7.35 million and expires after the 2023-24 season, can sign a contract extension beginning July 1.

But it appears there is no rush.

 

https://theprovince.com/sports/hockey/nhl/vancouver-canucks/canucks-elias-pettersson-agent-confident-contract-extension