Kanukfanatic Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 Many posters on here have taken many stats classes and fully understand how odds work. You would be interested to know that the Canucks new online 50/50 has only ever had 15 draws. The 7th draw was won by someone named Sam Abadian. See https://www.nhl.com/canucks/fans/5050. Then last night, the 15th draw, Sam Abadian won again. The odds of this would be almost zero. One would wonder who this person is, if they are connected to the draw in anyway, or if this draw is somehow rigged? Hmmm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shift-4 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 It's almost like there are Italian mobsters affiliated with the Canucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goalie13 Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I'm not one of those that has taken a stats class. However, aren't Sam's odds the same to win it a second time even if he hadn't won it the first time? For example, flip a coin. 50/50 odds that it comes up heads. Heads it is. Flip the coin again. The odds are still 50/50. The odds don't change just because Heads won it the first time. It (sort of) reminds me of one of my favourite Dilbert cartoons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kanukfanatic Posted November 30, 2018 Author Share Posted November 30, 2018 It has been years since I have taken those classes but yes, he would have the same odds of winning 1 draw as everyone else (assuming they all bought the same number of tickets). But when you look at two separate draws and combine the odds of any single person winning 2 of those draws, the odds become astronomically bad. It "smells" bad imo. But I am a suspicious person at heart. Here is an explanation (from http://www.statisticsviews.com/details/news/7684721/What-are-the-chances-of-winning-the-lottery-twice.html): What are the chances of winning the lottery twice? NEWS Author: Statistics Views Date: 02 April 2015 Copyright: Image appears courtesy of Getty Images No, it was not an April Fool. Yesterday, it was revealed that a couple from the UK had scooped a £1m lottery prize for the second time - just two years after their first £1m win. David and Kathleen Long, from Scunthorpe, North Lincolnshire, won their first £1m in 2013. Lottery organisers Camelot said that it was an "extraordinary situation" for someone to be able to win twice (BBC News, 1st April 2015). But just what are the odds of winning the lottery twice? John Talbot, Reader of Mathematics at UCL has looked into the odds. Here in the UK, as of January 2014, there have been 1882 lottery draws and 4503 jackpot winners (giving an average of 2.4 winners per draw). Talbot writes: 'Assuming that: -Winners consider themselves lucky and so continue to play (twice a week). -Jackpot winners live for 30 years (from the date of their first win). -The overall number of players doesn't decrease (and so the average number of winners each week remains at least 2.4). -The lottery runs for another 20 years. -Players choose their numbers independently at random (say by using the Lucky Dip option). The chances that someone wins the lottery twice before 2034 is greater than 60%.' (John Talbot, UCL Twitter) So why it isn't one in two hundred trillion? 'In each draw the chance of a single ticket winning is around 1 in 14 million. (Actually it's 1 in 13,983,816 = 49×48×47×46×45×44/6!.) So if you buy a single ticket in each of two draws then your chances of winning the jackpot on both occasions is 1/14,000,000 × 1/14,000,00 which is roughly one in two hundred trillion.' Talbot offers his calculations here. Mr and Mrs Long have been lucky but Talbot argues that the idea that the chance of this happening is 1 in 200,000,000,000,000 (two hundred trillion) is ridiculous; when, in fact, we should be more surprised if it did not happen at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tre Mac Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, goalie13 said: I'm not one of those that has taken a stats class. However, aren't Sam's odds the same to win it a second time even if he hadn't won it the first time? For example, flip a coin. 50/50 odds that it comes up heads. Heads it is. Flip the coin again. The odds are still 50/50. The odds don't change just because Heads won it the first time. It (sort of) reminds me of one of my favourite Dilbert cartoons... Odds change because you have to flip heads twice in a row. Quote You know from experience that if you flip a coin twice, sometimes you get tails twice in a row. That is because each time you flip the coin, the odds remain 1/2; the two flips are independent of each other. The odds of getting tails twice in a row are 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4. So 25% of the time you'll get heads twice in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldnews Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 you can conduct your investigation.... but you've already lead with an assumption - that the odds would be close to 0%. first question - how many tickets are they buying? the 'odds' thing means nothing if you're talking about a person that buys 100 tickets - and wadr, there are people that buy fistfuls of tickets for 50/50 draws. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'NucK™ Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 2 hours ago, goalie13 said: I'm not one of those that has taken a stats class. However, aren't Sam's odds the same to win it a second time even if he hadn't won it the first time? For example, flip a coin. 50/50 odds that it comes up heads. Heads it is. Flip the coin again. The odds are still 50/50. The odds don't change just because Heads won it the first time. It (sort of) reminds me of one of my favourite Dilbert cartoons... His odds to win the second time would be the same (if he has purchased an equal % share of the 50/50 tickets as the first time), but the poster is asking what are the odds of him winning the first time as well as the second... The odds of flipping two heads in a row is 25%. I'm guessing the most likely scenario is that the guy buys a lot of 50/50 tickets... probably will be buying even more now and will end the year with a net loss . Just how gambling works, especially when 50% of proceeds go to charity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
City-in-state-of-emergency Posted November 30, 2018 Share Posted November 30, 2018 I don't get gambling.... if you have the cash why not gamble the money on a investment gain more money over time and donate a larger portion to kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'NucK™ Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 1 hour ago, City-in-state-of-emergency said: I don't get gambling.... if you have the cash why not gamble the money on a investment gain more money over time and donate a larger portion to kids. Technically in this case, if you are talking strictly $ going to charity, you would still be donating more buying 50/50 tickets (unless you find an investment where you are able to double your money). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rizzuto&hatoum Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 I remember jumping into the online 50/50 at PlayNow.com couple years ago because I saw one person had won twice. Figured it would be better odds since there would be less people. Now with the combined 50/50, it should be tougher to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmilyM Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 Totally unrelated, but does anyone have a ski mask, a crowbar, and a White Pages I can borrow for an evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCNeil Posted December 1, 2018 Share Posted December 1, 2018 No idea how many tickets he was buying, especially after his first win. Sometimes winning turns people a bit crazy. I knew someone who won $2 million back in the mid 90s from the 6/49. He bought a house and new truck.....and was spending $1000 a week on 6/49 tickets, holding up checkout lines buying tickets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SergioMomesso Posted December 3, 2018 Share Posted December 3, 2018 My moms cousin won the BC lotto daily 50/50 a couple weeks ago. Guy went to Vegas the very next week and lost it all the first night he was there. Thought he was a big shot betting 500 dollar black jack hands. We had a good laugh about it this past weekend at a family gathering. The one person not amused about the whole ordeal was his wife. She didn’t get to spend a dime of before he blew it all away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 You have much much better odds to win the 50/50 then the lottery... Lottery you're looking at something like 1 in 60,000,000 or whatever... 50/50 is 1 in however many people buy the ticket. So if this guy bought 10 tickets then he'd be looking at something like 1 in 50,000 chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
406in604 Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 11/30/2018 at 7:19 PM, BCNeil said: No idea how many tickets he was buying, especially after his first win. Sometimes winning turns people a bit crazy. I knew someone who won $2 million back in the mid 90s from the 6/49. He bought a house and new truck.....and was spending $1000 a week on 6/49 tickets, holding up checkout lines buying tickets. Kenny Roger's wrote a song about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xereau Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 Famed gangster James Whitey Bulger won the lottery multiple times too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gregfi Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 The guy that won half of 1.5mill is one of my neighbors.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
erkayloomeh Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 I sat beside this guy who won twice . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coryberg Posted December 4, 2018 Share Posted December 4, 2018 On 11/30/2018 at 7:19 PM, BCNeil said: No idea how many tickets he was buying, especially after his first win. Sometimes winning turns people a bit crazy. I knew someone who won $2 million back in the mid 90s from the 6/49. He bought a house and new truck.....and was spending $1000 a week on 6/49 tickets, holding up checkout lines buying tickets. A Chinese family in my hometown won 6/49 twice when I was a kid (3 years apart). Same thing both times, they bought massive amounts of tickets twice a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baggins Posted December 5, 2018 Share Posted December 5, 2018 On 11/30/2018 at 12:16 PM, oldnews said: you can conduct your investigation.... but you've already lead with an assumption - that the odds would be close to 0%. first question - how many tickets are they buying? the 'odds' thing means nothing if you're talking about a person that buys 100 tickets - and wadr, there are people that buy fistfuls of tickets for 50/50 draws. Or is it possible there's more than one person with that name......then it's: what's the odds of two people with the same name winning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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