Vancouver Canucks - short term and long term cap strategy management.

[Hindustan Smyl]

Vancouver Canucks - short term and long term cap strategy management.   

 

While I am happy with the signings of Myers and Benn, along with the J.T. Miller trade, I am concerned about our long term cap management and strategy.    IF the Canucks are serious about being contenders, they will need to do the following over the next two years:

 

1) Re-sign Markstrom - unless Demko has a ridiculous season like Binnington and proves that he's ready to be "the guy" right from the get go.

2) Re-up Pettersson in 2 years

3) Re-up Hughes in 2 years.

 

That could easily be about $20 million dollars right there.    

 

On paper, that seems easy enough:    "Oh, we just won't sign Schaller (1.9M, Tanev (4.45M), Fantenberg (850K), Biega (825K), Benn (2M), and Edler (6M), Sutter  (4.375), Pearson (3.75M), and Baertschi (3.366M).   = 27.516 M.

 

However, from that 27.516M, even if you re-up some of the following players:   

-Jake Virtanen

-Adam Gaudette

-Troy Stecher

-Guillame Brisebois

-Ashton Sautner

-Thatcher Demko

 

What will the actual net gain of the Canucks be, in terms of their talent, even if they managed successfully managed to re-up Pettersson, Hughes, and Markstrom?   In many respects, our cap problems might become just as bad as the Leafs.

 

With all that said, perhaps you can understand why I'm a little mystified with regards to these recent Michael Ferland rumours.........and how Benning was trying to bring him.    

 

I'm not a "numbers" guy, but can someone please explain to me what would be an effective plan for the Canucks IF they wanted to

 

1) Re-up or Re-sign Pettersson, Hughes, and Markstrom.

2) Avoid cap complications.

 

Here is my stab at it:

 

2019-2020:   Sign Boeser + Sign Levio.   Bye bye Goldobin, Rafferty, Teves.   Overall cap = right at the ceiling.

2020-2021:   Schaller (1.9) + Tanev (4.45) = off the books. (6.35M).  5M goes to Markstrom.   1.35M goes to Virtanen (Virtanen new salary = 2.6 M).  Gaudette + Stecher get traded for picks.   Returning Tryamkin = trade for a pick.

2021-2022:   Baertschi (3.366) + Sutter (4.375) + Benn (2) = off the books (9.741M).   For "easy math" purposes, lets say that 9.741M goes to Pettersson.  Pearson ($3.75M) + Edler (6M) = off the books (9.75M).   8M of that goes to Hughes.   The other 1.75M of that goes to Demko.   (or, perhaps a greater percentage of the 9.75M goes to Demko while slightly less goes to Hughes.  Either way - that 9.75 M gets allocated towards Hughes and Demko).   

2022-2023:  Beagle (3M) + Roussel (3M) + Eriksson (6M) come off the books (total = 12M).   

 

2023-2024 = Canucks year?    

 

-JT Miller will still have a year left on his "sweetheart" deal.

-Horvat will still be on his contract

-Pettersson, Boeser, and Hughes will be in their mid 20's.    

-Markstrom and Demko will be here.   

-That 12 million can easily be invested into a top pairing calibre d-man.   

-Podkolzin will be entering his prime.   

-Perhaps some "surprises" like Madden and/or Hoglander will be factors.

-Between 2019-2020 and 2023-2024, the Canucks will have had likely enough time to accumulate enough prospects on the back-end to accompany what would hopefully be Hughes, Myers, Juolevi, Woo, along with another top pairing UFA defenseman that we'd sign on July 1st 2023.   

 

This is obviously a very rough sketch of how I see things possibly playing out (and I'm likely way off base here), but how do you guys see things playing out?

 

[Fanuck]

3 minutes ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

IF the Canucks are serious about being contenders, they will need to do the following over the next two years:

 

Two years is a lifetime in NHL terms.

 

Look at the roster two seasons ago.  Literally half of the team is different. 

 

http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/leagues/seasons/teams/0000392018.html

 

A lot can, and I expect will, happen in two years.

 

I still like JB's direction and with every move his plan becomes more clear.

 

The foundation is built - patience, fine tuning,  and trust are required. 

 

Some difficult decisions may yet have to be made but it's a business after all.

[coastal.view]

this is not a topic that you can really seriously address if you are "not a numbers guy"

many teams have a cap guy working full time on these issues

and will have charted all salaries, potential cap increase, and a whole variety of complicating issues related to this topic

you cannot have it effectively explained in a thread by almost any cdc poster with the amount of detail required to be credible

i get what you want to know

but the answer is not simple

 

[Hindustan Smyl]

2019-2020:

 

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser

Pearson-Horvat-Leivo

Baertschi-Sutter-Virtanen

Eriksson-Beagle-MacEwan

 

Roussel

 

Edler-Myers

Hughes-Tanev

Benn-Stecher

 

Markstrom

Demko

 

2020-2021:   (sans Schaller + Tanev + Gaudette + Stecher + Tryamkin)

 

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser

Pearson-Horvat-Levio

[Baertschi-Eriksson]-Sutter-Virtanen

Roussel-Beagle-MacEwan

 

Edler-Myers

Hughes-[Woo?]

Sautner-Benn

 

Markstrom

Demko

 

2021-2022:  (sans Baertschi + Sutter + Benn + Pearson + Edler)

 

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser

Hoglander-Horvat-Podkolzin

Leivo-Madden-Virtanen

Roussel-Beagle-MacEwan

 

Hughes-Myers

Juolevi-Woo

Sautner-???

 

Markstrom

Demko

 

2022-2023:  (sans Beagle, Roussel, Eriksson)

 

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser

Hoglander-Horvat-Podkolzin

???-Madden-Virtanen

???-???-????

 

Hughes-Woo

Juolevi-Myers

???-???

 

Markstrom

Demko

 

2023-2024:

 

Miller-Pettersson-Boeser

Hoglander-Horvat-Podkolzin

???-Madden-Virtanen

???-???-???

 

Hughes-[TopParingUFA]

Juolevi-Woo

???-???

 

Markstrom

Demko.

 

I honestly have no idea, lol.    Obviously, buyouts and guys like Eriksson being traded with sweeteners can happen at any point, but I think the point remains clear:

 

The Canucks are going to have to be VERY careful with their cap from here on out.    Yes - the cap will likely go up and give the Canucks some breathing room (which means they'll be able to re-sign more guys than I'm giving credit for above), BUT..........if they start spending money on guys like Ferland (who will require term), I think the long term "rippling" effect could be catastrophic.   

[Hindustan Smyl]

3 minutes ago, coastal.view said:

this is not a topic that you can really seriously address if you are "not a numbers guy"

many teams have a cap guy working full time on these issues

and will have charted all salaries, potential cap increase, and a whole variety of complicating issues related to this topic

you cannot have it effectively explained in a thread by almost any cdc poster with the amount of detail required to be credible

i get what you want to know

but the answer is not simple

 

None of us are pros obviously.    I get that.   

 

But why not take a stab at it for fun?    :-)

[captainhorvat]

27 minutes ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

Vancouver Canucks - short term and long term cap strategy management.   

 

While I am happy with the signings of Myers and Benn, along with the J.T. Miller trade, I am concerned about our long term cap management and strategy.    IF the Canucks are serious about being contenders, they will need to do the following over the next two years:

 

1) Re-sign Markstrom - unless Demko has a ridiculous season like Binnington and proves that he's ready to be "the guy" right from the get go.

2) Re-up Pettersson in 2 years

3) Re-up Hughes in 2 years.

 

That could easily be about $20 million dollars right there.    

 

On paper, that seems easy enough:    "Oh, we just won't sign Schaller (1.9M, Tanev (4.45M), Fantenberg (850K), Biega (825K), Benn (2M), and Edler (6M), Sutter  (4.375), Pearson (3.75M), and Baertschi (3.366M).   = 27.516 M.

 

However, from that 27.516M, even if you re-up some of the following players:   

-Jake Virtanen

-Adam Gaudette

-Troy Stecher

-Guillame Brisebois

-Ashton Sautner

-Thatcher Demko

 

What will the actual net gain of the Canucks be, in terms of their talent, even if they managed successfully managed to re-up Pettersson, Hughes, and Markstrom?   In many respects, our cap problems might become just as bad as the Leafs.

 

With all that said, perhaps you can understand why I'm a little mystified with regards to these recent Michael Ferland rumours.........and how Benning was trying to bring him.    

 

I'm not a "numbers" guy, but can someone please explain to me what would be an effective plan for the Canucks IF they wanted to

 

1) Re-up or Re-sign Pettersson, Hughes, and Markstrom.

2) Avoid cap complications.

 

Here is my stab at it:

 

2019-2020:   Sign Boeser + Sign Levio.   Bye bye Goldobin, Rafferty, Teves.   Overall cap = right at the ceiling.

2020-2021:   Schaller (1.9) + Tanev (4.45) = off the books. (6.35M).  5M goes to Markstrom.   1.35M goes to Virtanen (Virtanen new salary = 2.6 M).  Gaudette + Stecher get traded for picks.   Returning Tryamkin = trade for a pick.

2021-2022:   Baertschi (3.366) + Sutter (4.375) + Benn (2) = off the books (9.741M).   For "easy math" purposes, lets say that 9.741M goes to Pettersson.  Pearson ($3.75M) + Edler (6M) = off the books (9.75M).   8M of that goes to Hughes.   The other 1.75M of that goes to Demko.   (or, perhaps a greater percentage of the 9.75M goes to Demko while slightly less goes to Hughes.  Either way - that 9.75 M gets allocated towards Hughes and Demko).   

2022-2023:  Beagle (3M) + Roussel (3M) + Eriksson (6M) come off the books (total = 12M).   

 

2023-2024 = Canucks year?    

 

-JT Miller will still have a year left on his "sweetheart" deal.

-Horvat will still be on his contract

-Pettersson, Boeser, and Hughes will be in their mid 20's.    

-Markstrom and Demko will be here.   

-That 12 million can easily be invested into a top pairing calibre d-man.   

-Podkolzin will be entering his prime.   

-Perhaps some "surprises" like Madden and/or Hoglander will be factors.

-Between 2019-2020 and 2023-2024, the Canucks will have had likely enough time to accumulate enough prospects on the back-end to accompany what would hopefully be Hughes, Myers, Juolevi, Woo, along with another top pairing UFA defenseman that we'd sign on July 1st 2023.   

 

This is obviously a very rough sketch of how I see things possibly playing out (and I'm likely way off base here), but how do you guys see things playing out?

 

A lot will change in the next 2 years. Im not gonna lose sleep over it. The canucks management will handle it. All i can do is handle my own salary cap in NHL 22 at the time.

[Baggins]

To say 10m for Petersson before last season started I'd have had my doubts. Even now I'd say he has to add 20+ points to last season to be in that conversation. To say Hughes will need 10m based on a hand full of games is quite optimistic even if possible. Bottom line: you're getting way ahead of yourself.. 

[Hindustan Smyl]

Just now, captainhorvat said:

A lot will change in the next 2 years. Im not gonna lose sleep over it. The canucks management will handle it. All i can do is handle my own salary cap in NHL 22 at the time.

 

A lot will change obviously yes, but re-upping Pettersson, Markstrom, and Hughes over the next two years will serve as formiddable challenges.

 

That was the main point that I was trying to make.    

[Rick Blight]

The salary cap has gone up $6M over the past two seasons and I think you can reasonably expect at least that amount again. There is a new NBC TV deal that may have a very positive impact on the cap.

 

Aside from that, doesn't this statement apply to almost every other team? 

10 minutes ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

The Canucks are going to have to be VERY careful with their cap from here on out.    Yes - the cap will likely go up and give the Canucks some breathing room (which means they'll be able to re-sign more guys than I'm giving credit for above), BUT..........if they start spending money on guys like Ferland (who will require term), I think the long term "rippling" effect could be catastrophic. 

 

[Alflives]

11 minutes ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

 

A lot will change obviously yes, but re-upping Pettersson, Markstrom, and Hughes over the next two years will serve as formiddable challenges.

 

That was the main point that I was trying to make.    

Pettersson and Hughes will get well deserved big dollar deals.  Marky is worth 3-5 million on the cap.  No more. 

[VegasCanuck]

Keep in mind, cap will go up about 2 million next summer and then with the new TV deal and Seattle coming on board for the 21/22 season, Cap will likely go up about 5 million that summer as Escrow will have balanced out.

 

After Boeser's new contract this season, which I expect to be around 7 - 7.5 million range, we will actually still have cap space based on a number of factors. Roussel is LTIR to start the season, so his 3 million doesn't count until he's ready to play, and we will always have more injuries during the season.

 

We will still make more changes before the end of summing, I still believe (could be wrong), that Hutton will be back for around 2.5 million and that Tanev will be moved for prospects / picks.

 

One way or another, Eriksson is either going to be moved, show up and prove that he can contribute, or be shipped off to Utica, which would be a real embarrassment for him and his family, the type where he may choose to refuse to report and his contract winds up being terminated and he retires from the NHL.

 

If we're moving Tanev, its possible that him being moved is tied to someone being willing to take Eriksson as well as part of the package.

 

Back to Boeser, after he is resigned, we really don't have any significant upgrades on salary until Hughes and Pettersson in 21/22 season, which will be largely taken care of through players like Sutter being UFA (if he hasn't been moved before), and Edler being UFA (resigned at a lower rate if he doesn't retire), and other moves that happen throughout this summer and next.

 

Cap really isn't an issue for us for awhile, team ownership will happily spend to the cap, and we'll always have guys who wind up on LTIR, to make space for younger players to establish themselves.

[Chris12345]

2 hours ago, coastal.view said:

this is not a topic that you can really seriously address if you are "not a numbers guy"

many teams have a cap guy working full time on these issues

and will have charted all salaries, potential cap increase, and a whole variety of complicating issues related to this topic

you cannot have it effectively explained in a thread by almost any cdc poster with the amount of detail required to be credible

i get what you want to know

but the answer is not simple

 

I would love to do that job. It wouldn't be that hard to be honest it's only a payroll of $81.5M with 25ish players.

[Rob_Zepp]

Wow, summer seems to be getting longer and more tedious on CDC.    

[Alflives]

1 minute ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Wow, summer seems to be getting longer and more tedious on CDC.    

I’m missing some of our regulars, who keep this place exciting.  The Guardian and others?  Sweet and sour is not so good without the sour.  

[spur1]

41 minutes ago, Rob_Zepp said:

Wow, summer seems to be getting longer and more tedious on CDC.    

Thank god for golf and the Lions.

[hammertime]

Lets say the cap goes up to 84m 2 years from now just per say. With 21 players signed this is the approximate cash I value the players at give or take some here an there. including Luongo cap penalty that leaves the Canucks sitting at just over 75m leaving nearly 9m to put towards whatever we have to pay to dump Eriksson and sign 1 depth D and still leaves a large chunk of cash to acquire 1 top 4 D or 2nd line winger. Even if Pete and Hughes cost another 2m each JB still has no problem fitting under the cap. 

 

Roster

Left Wing	Centre	Right Wing
Miller, J.T. $5,250,000 C, LW, RW UFA - 2	Pettersson, Elias $9,200,000	Boeser, Brock $6,200,000
Pearson, Tanner $4,000,000	Horvat, Bo $5,500,000 C UFA - 2	Podkolzin, Vasili $1,000,000
Virtanen, Jake $2,200,000	Beagle, Jay $3,000,000 C M-NTC UFA - 1	Roussel, Antoine $3,000,000 LW M-NTC UFA - 1
Hoglander, Nils $1,000,000	Gaudette, Adam $1,750,000	Madden, Tyler $800,000
Gadjovich, Jonah $783,333 LW RFA - 1

 

Left Defense	Right Defense	Goaltender
Hughes, Quinn $7,000,000	Myers, Tyler $6,000,000 D M-NTC UFA - 3	Markstrom, Jacob $4,500,000
Tryamkin, Nikita $3,000,000	Stretcher, Tony $3,000,000	Demko, Thatcher $1,500,000
Juolevi, Olli $2,500,000	Woo, Jett $891,666 D RFA - 1

[Westcoasting]

4 hours ago, Hindustan Smyl said:

 

A lot will change obviously yes, but re-upping Pettersson, Markstrom, and Hughes over the next two years will serve as formiddable challenges.

 

That was the main point that I was trying to make.    

I don't see the problem, every other team goes through the same process. Some players stay, others get traded, others leave as free agents. Some players get flogged away to save the cap numbers. What don't you understand?

[Rob_Zepp]

4 hours ago, spur1 said:

Thank god for golf and the Lions.

Golf I get, but you have lions?!? 

[Hindustan Smyl]

5 hours ago, Westcoasting said:

I don't see the problem, every other team goes through the same process. Some players stay, others get traded, others leave as free agents. Some players get flogged away to save the cap numbers. What don't you understand?

I understand the general concept of this (lol), but my concern was on how exactly we’d sign all three or Pettersson, Hughes, and Markstrom.   You yourself said, “some players get flogged away.”  My question is who?  Does Tanev get sacrificed along the way?  Stecher? Gaudette?  Virtanen?  Who stays and who guys.   I was looking for more specifics.

[Tomatoes11]

Bring back Lawrence Gilman? Lol