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The athletic projects the Canucks 26th overall?

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6 hours ago, ItTakesAnArmy said:

It seems the predictions from two years ago were ridiculed for 8 or 9 pages but eventually were proven fairly accurate.

 

There are always exceptions who knows for sure maybe Pettersson gets 120 points and Boeser scores 60+ goals, maybe Sutter lights up the lamp for 30+ or Schaller pots 25+, anything can happen heck even Tanev and Edler could play the whole season and both achieve 55 points.

 

The shown estimate of the standings have a cluster of teams around the 26 mark so a margin of error might be +/- 4 spots, 22 to 30th with the curve closer to the 22 spot.

 

Still not enough improvement overall though.

 

The StLouis comment, remember they were a top team that had a bad 2 1/2 months, really bad time and after January they caught on fire, but they were a really good team that were really bad for a very short period of time.

 

Oh ya, those predictions from two years ago came true, so did the years before and after.

Well last year things didn’t really follow the script if you re-call, most experts had us second or third worst overall.  That’s a 6-7 spot improvement, not exactly close - and a fair amount was written about that improvement too - one losing streak away from a wild card spot factually.  

 

Not everyone this year is on-board with us being a bottom dweller - leading the charge at TSN is Craig Button, he’s pretty well respected and not only believes that JB absolutely deserved his extension but also believes we are a playoff team this year.  That puts us at least 16 ranked by him.  Fantasy pool mags all make their own predictions too, this year the four big ones have us 4/5 in our division and either a wild card or bubble team.   THN also ranks us fifth in our division and a bubble team, some of their staff (Larkin) actually believe we will win a cup with this team (and they are based in TO, imagine that).  Last year we were ninth - and not a bubble team but not far from it.   Do you honestly feel that a full year with a completely different roster (8 different players then the start of last year) all of them improvements - won’t push us up the 10-15 points we need to make it to the middle?  I don’t.   And neither do most of the guys making these predictions - id say the guys at athletic did a lazy job of it or have information (a time machine?) the rest of us don’t. 

 

 

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Predictions are dumb.

 

No one can predict injuries and that's a huge factor.  Sure, depth factors in and so you can project who can survive them better than other teams. 

 

But I like that no one ever has faith in our team...I'd rather they just all leave us alone.

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5 hours ago, SabreFan1 said:

There is no debate.  You want to be spoon fed and then made an apples to oranges comparison after getting upset.  Any serious conversation with you won't happen until I forget about this one. 

 

Fortunately my memory sucks when it comes to talking to people I haven't interacted with often so I'll probably forget this ridiculous conversation by tomorrow.

I asked you a simple question and you couldn't even answer it. Once again..good Lord.  Now go ahead and put me on ignore 

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2 hours ago, stawns said:

The Canucks have been top 3 in injuries each of the last three years I believe.  You can absolutely blame injuries if it's key, long term injuries year after year

As I said, even given that being the case, you can't blame injuries when you literally have players that are naturally injury prone throughout the roster.

 

Injuries aren't always just a matter of luck. It's a reason why the Sedins rarely got injured. Our for the past few years have been prone to injuries, especially soft tissue injuries, which are especially indicative to how injury prone a player is. 

 

It's part of the reason we weren't good, but you can't "blame" them and use it as argument that we should've been better and that the advanced stats were wrong. 

Edited by Grape
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Read the tweet gents. It says "updated daily' and shows the chances of winning the Stanley Cup. So as of right now the Canucks have 26th place chance of winning the cup. Once the season starts and teams start to do better the rankings will shift. I'm expecting them to just squeak into the playoffs this year personally.

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1 hour ago, BlastPast said:

I asked you a simple question and you couldn't even answer it. Once again..good Lord.  Now go ahead and put me on ignore 

I'm an adult.  If I wanted to ignore you, I would.  I don't need to use the message board as an aide to accomplish it.

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5 hours ago, mll said:

He had them middle of the pack to start last season with a 50% probability of making the playoffs - 4th in the Central and 8th in the West on 3 October 2018.

Nope.  He had them at 5%-6% at the beginning of last year...  The Canucks never made it past 21-22% the entire year...

 

Screen-Shot-2019-04-05-at-11.28.36-AM.pn

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7 hours ago, -AJ- said:

To be fair, most pundits had us at dead last in 2018-19 with below 70 points. We finished quite a bit above that. 

Yeah - and those pundits were projecting what they thought of the healthy roster - and really, they got dummied by a M.A.S.H. team.

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3 hours ago, Warhippy said:

We're still barely a bubble team but we're better than what they suggest.  Toronto at 2nd with that defence blows this out of the water.  

 

I'd take their predictions to the nearest bookie and place $100 against it to make the playoffs

There is no "their" or "they".  It's just one analytics guy with a weighted model he came up with.  His model actually didn't do that bad last year.

 

Unfortunately for him, his model obviously doesn't have a "Maple Leafs yearly choke" equation built in.

 

If the Canucks can avoid the giant injury bug this season (big if) I'll be surprised if they don't make the playoffs, especially if Markstrom begins this year with his second half of last season's form.

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