2021 NHL Entry Draft

[HighOnHockey]

20 minutes ago, janisahockeynut said:

Well, ultimately, draft choices come down to a personal decision of who you thin is better, but every year, most experts are wrong at the draft table, and the best of the class is not picked first. So, really, the ranking system used today, is very imperfect anyways. 

 

Numbers and rankings are subjective at best, so I don't see your point. I see you trying to justify an imperfect system.

 

The point I am making is that the players being ranked are for the most part, being ranked into a list of players where this guy is better than that guy, but the fact is, how do you really separate 2 players that are extremely close in actual talent, but play different positions in different leagues. What I suggest is that those that are grouped close together have no difference in value, so in fact you could choose any of the group and not be wrong, as in most cases, the list is ultimately wrong anyways. (Which is just about always proven in redrafts...aka hind sight.) 

 

The problem is not, whether you like one kid over another in a grouping, but whether your rankings or grouping are correct, and whether you reach outside your rankings.......think Virtanen, or even Juolevi.

 

It is all subjective, and in most drafts, you could look back and say that you could have taken any of these guys and had a better result that what you had.

 

It is not to say, you do not scout and breakdown the list, but rather afterwards, where you have the info, and you are sitting in the middle of a draft, needing to pick a kid, needing a defenseman, but the defenseman is one number below this other kid. or there are 2 defenseman, who do you pick, well again Benning went off his list and they took Juolevi, and have been proven wrong......so I don't get your objection. or you do it on a forward and then you find out Virtanen was 32nd on every body else's list. 

It is not subjective. It absolutely is imperfect, which is very different than subjective. There is a right and a wrong answer. There are better and worse assessments. If you're looking for perfection, you're in the wrong place. I'm not trying to justify anything. It is what it is. You can be indecisive, dilly dally and smell the flowers all you want, when it gets right down to it, GMs need to make a decision. It's a billion dollar industry; every organization has investors and is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and those valuations are impacted by success and failure on the ice and at the draft table. Every scout's reputation, promotion, job, career, is on the line with every pick. I remember you talking once about ranking prospects using a points system or some such thing, but that's not at all how it works.

 

I don't know exactly how things go in a scouting room, and I'm sure every team is a little different, but it isn't like they take a democratic vote and every scout's opinion is worth one point. Basically you have a bunch of scouts arguing their case for their players, but the area scouts only know their own region's players very well, so there are also crossover scouts and head scouts who are trying to get a look at as many players from different regions as possible, so that they can compare across regions and break deadlocks. For teams with very early picks, certainly the DAS and even GM or AGM will have seen the top few players and be involved in the pick themselves, but overwhelmingly it is just knowing and trusting your scouts. Being a scout is about evaluating players, but being a head scout is about evaluating the evaluators.

 

I'll use the example of the Ottawa Senators scouting staff again, because I know that group inside and out. Sorry, I wish I could do this with the Canucks (hopefully I'll get there soon). The Sens hired a few new scouts a couple years back. One was Anders Ostberg, and one was Bobby Strumm Jr. So with them being new to the group, of course they aren't getting much say with the first round picks initially. GM Dorion and DAS Trent Mann have their core group of Bob Janecyk, Don Boyd, Mikko Ruutu who are most heavily relied upon for the early picks, i.e. they get the most say at the top of the list. But teams need to build trust in new scouts, so they give tryouts with area picks in later rounds. This is where an area scout is the only one familiar with a given player and is very high on said player, so they bump them up the list a bit. Anders Ostberg got a 4th rounder in 2019 who was way off the board, a kid called Viktor Lodin. Lodin hasn't turned out all that well, so Ostberg isn't gaining big trust points. He got a 5th rounder last year called Erik Engstrand. On the other hand, Bobby Strumm Jr. got an area pick in 2018 in the 5th round, called Angus Crookshank. Crookshank is looking like a gem of a pick, so Strumm earns trust. In 2019 Strumm would have had some say in Lassi Thomson 19th overall (although also Mikko Ruutu and George Fargher would have been heavily involved there, as well as obviously the head scout Trent Mann) and in 2020 Ridly Greig 27th overall would have been a joint effort by Fargher and Strumm. So you can see how Strumm is gradually moving up the ranks, while Ostberg will continue to be given area picks late until he starts to hit on some, or is eventually let go.

 

So that's the jist of it. I listened to an interview with Robert Kron recently, and he was saying that as an area scout he would sometimes see a player 30 or 40 times before the draft, to be certain. So no, the idea that two players are tied on a team's list is meaningless. The scouting staff isn't one cohesive 10-headed Hydra that can think that way. It is a bunch of flawed humans who each bring a piece of the puzzle, and the head scouts work together with all of them to try to organize that information into a cohesive picture. Of course it is going to be messy and imperfect, not to even mention the fact that scouting is pretty hard to begin with.

[Bertuzzipunch]

11 hours ago, janisahockeynut said:

Well, what about both? What about moving up for Clarke and picking up a player or 2?

 

Let's just say that after the 5th pick, Clarke is still on the table....and just for laughs......Power, Benier, Hughes, Guenther,  and Eklund are gone

 

So, we know, that it is very possible that Detroit will not take a RHD at this point, because they have Seider, it is not to say they would not, but they they have other targets too

 

So, McTavish, Johnson, Wallstedt, Clarke and Edvinsson are left on the table.............

 

Detroit looks at the next 2 picks after theirs...........San Jose, and LA 

 

Now the question is who do the 2 teams take, if Clarke is off the table, and is the incentive that Vancouver gives, worth enough to take one of the players left after SJ and LA pick.

 

I would say a 2022-2nd might be enough to have Detroit and Vancouver swap 1st's............... 

 

That in no way, gets in front of a 2022-1st in a better draft for Reinhart, so I don't quite know what the concern is. 

 

Maybe we go crazy and offer Tampa our 2022 - 1st (unprotected), DiPietro and Woo for Cernak and they take it?

 

Now you have..........short term

 

Hughes.......Cernak

Rathbone....Myers

 

and you have.....long term

 

Hughes........Cernak

Rathbone.....Clarke

 

So, like I said, you do not necessarily have to not have one to get the other..................

Well if we somehow get cernak then im all in with horvat and miller. I mean that right there proves we wanna win now and in the future. If we roll into next season with the left side of quinn rathbone Jouveli and maybe edler uggh id rather just trade miller cause we aint making playoffs with that

[Maddogy]

2 hours ago, AC Readership said:

I don't get the talk of trading of the 2022 1st and/or 2023 1st cause I don't think the Canucks will be a playoff team next season and the year after, if anything you want more tickets for the talents coming out the next 2 years.

 

Miller definitely can get a 1st plus.

If J.B. is to trade the 9 OA pick, it is likely to be on the day of draft. I think he and the scouts would like to see which prospects may fall to the 9th spot in this uncertain draft. 

[Bertuzzipunch]

2 minutes ago, Maddogy said:

If J.B. is to trade the 9 OA pick, it is likely to be on the day of draft. I think he and the scouts would like to see which prospects may fall to the 9th spot in this uncertain draft. 

At that time we will already know of any moves we have done with the ED. So things will be much more clear atvthe time of the draft of our needs.

[Wolfgang Durst]

1 hour ago, flickyoursedin said:

I can really see a good player falling to us! I see McTavish being a Center and playing the way he does I can see him going 5th or 6th to Columbus or Detroit. If he goes 5th I can see Detroit taking Wellstedt. One more of these skilled guys we didn’t think will make it to us should be there. Hopefully it’s whom Benning wants (likely one of the top 4 dmen) otherwise I feel like he flips our pick for Reinhart. It’s not what I want I can just see Benning doing it lol.

good think is that Jim needs to move out cap before they can sign Reinhart. I doubt very much that he will be successful in moving out cap. Not to mention that several other teams are in on Reinhart too. Columbus seems like to be the frontrunners on Reinhart. They are pushing really hard to get him. If I remember correctly Columbus has three 1st round picks in this years draft. They can afford to trade away one 1st round pick and they have the cap space to sign Reinhart even in the range 6.5m - 7.0m.

[Gawdzukes]

1 hour ago, HighOnHockey said:

It is not subjective. It absolutely is imperfect, which is very different than subjective. There is a right and a wrong answer. There are better and worse assessments. If you're looking for perfection, you're in the wrong place. I'm not trying to justify anything. It is what it is. You can be indecisive, dilly dally and smell the flowers all you want, when it gets right down to it, GMs need to make a decision. It's a billion dollar industry; every organization has investors and is worth hundreds of millions of dollars, and those valuations are impacted by success and failure on the ice and at the draft table. Every scout's reputation, promotion, job, career, is on the line with every pick. I remember you talking once about ranking prospects using a points system or some such thing, but that's not at all how it works.

 

I don't know exactly how things go in a scouting room, and I'm sure every team is a little different, but it isn't like they take a democratic vote and every scout's opinion is worth one point. Basically you have a bunch of scouts arguing their case for their players, but the area scouts only know their own region's players very well, so there are also crossover scouts and head scouts who are trying to get a look at as many players from different regions as possible, so that they can compare across regions and break deadlocks. For teams with very early picks, certainly the DAS and even GM or AGM will have seen the top few players and be involved in the pick themselves, but overwhelmingly it is just knowing and trusting your scouts. Being a scout is about evaluating players, but being a head scout is about evaluating the evaluators.

 

I'll use the example of the Ottawa Senators scouting staff again, because I know that group inside and out. Sorry, I wish I could do this with the Canucks (hopefully I'll get there soon). The Sens hired a few new scouts a couple years back. One was Anders Ostberg, and one was Bobby Strumm Jr. So with them being new to the group, of course they aren't getting much say with the first round picks initially. GM Dorion and DAS Trent Mann have their core group of Bob Janecyk, Don Boyd, Mikko Ruutu who are most heavily relied upon for the early picks, i.e. they get the most say at the top of the list. But teams need to build trust in new scouts, so they give tryouts with area picks in later rounds. This is where an area scout is the only one familiar with a given player and is very high on said player, so they bump them up the list a bit. Anders Ostberg got a 4th rounder in 2019 who was way off the board, a kid called Viktor Lodin. Lodin hasn't turned out all that well, so Ostberg isn't gaining big trust points. He got a 5th rounder last year called Erik Engstrand. On the other hand, Bobby Strumm Jr. got an area pick in 2018 in the 5th round, called Angus Crookshank. Crookshank is looking like a gem of a pick, so Strumm earns trust. In 2019 Strumm would have had some say in Lassi Thomson 19th overall (although also Mikko Ruutu and George Fargher would have been heavily involved there, as well as obviously the head scout Trent Mann) and in 2020 Ridly Greig 27th overall would have been a joint effort by Fargher and Strumm. So you can see how Strumm is gradually moving up the ranks, while Ostberg will continue to be given area picks late until he starts to hit on some, or is eventually let go.

 

So that's the jist of it. I listened to an interview with Robert Kron recently, and he was saying that as an area scout he would sometimes see a player 30 or 40 times before the draft, to be certain. So no, the idea that two players are tied on a team's list is meaningless. The scouting staff isn't one cohesive 10-headed Hydra that can think that way. It is a bunch of flawed humans who each bring a piece of the puzzle, and the head scouts work together with all of them to try to organize that information into a cohesive picture. Of course it is going to be messy and imperfect, not to even mention the fact that scouting is pretty hard to begin with.

If these lists are set in stone by every team why do you see the scouting team debating and taking a bunch of time before going up the podium to make their pick? Why aren't they just immediately going up and simply taking the next name on the list.

[Alflives]

Just now, Gawdzukes said:

If these lists are set in stone by every team why do you see the scouting team debating and taking a bunch of time before going up the podium to make their pick? Why aren't they just immediately going up and simply taking the next name on the list.

Maybe waiting to see if any previously talked about trade scenarios with other teams come up?  

[flickyoursedin]

14 minutes ago, Wolfgang Durst said:

good think is that Jim needs to move out cap before they can sign Reinhart. I doubt very much that he will be successful in moving out cap. Not to mention that several other teams are in on Reinhart too. Columbus seems like to be the frontrunners on Reinhart. They are pushing really hard to get him. If I remember correctly Columbus has three 1st round picks in this years draft. They can afford to trade away one 1st round pick and they have the cap space to sign Reinhart even in the range 6.5m - 7.0m.

What if Reinhart agrees to reasonable extension with Vancouver prior to such a trade and Buffalo takes Eriksson to help facilitate the deal. If they offered Reinhart for 9th and Eriksson’s last year of his contract. If the top 4 dmen are gone this could be a deal Benning is thinking about.

[Alflives]

2 minutes ago, flickyoursedin said:

What if Reinhart agrees to reasonable extension with Vancouver prior to such a trade and Buffalo takes Eriksson to help facilitate the deal. If they offered Reinhart for 9th and Eriksson’s last year of his contract. If the top 4 dmen are gone this could be a deal Benning is thinking about.

That trade scenario works for me.  Would adding Rhino allow us to move a younger winger for a younger D man?  

[Gawdzukes]

18 minutes ago, Alflives said:

Maybe waiting to see if any previously talked about trade scenarios with other teams come up?  

That's definitely possible although it seems to happen with such regularity. It really seems as if they're still debating that selection right up until it's made. Like I've heard them confirming to each other the guy they picking which leads me to believe it's not entirely set in stone.

[Nucker 67]

to CBJ - #9 and Schmidt

to VAN - #24 and 2022 1st

 

Draft Ceulemans, or even Raty

 

2022 Draft is supposed to be real good

 

CBJ likes this because they get a replacement for Jones and get two picks in the Top 10

 

VAN gets a good prospect and a great investment for next year's Draft

[Nucker 67]

I was curious when the last time the Canucks had 2 picks in the 1st round. 

 

My gosh, in 2014:

 

#6 - Jake Virtanen

#24 - Jared McCann

 

Blew that Draft 

[Alflives]

21 minutes ago, Gawdzukes said:

That's definitely possible although it seems to happen with such regularity. It really seems as if they're still debating that selection right up until it's made. Like I've heard them confirming to each other the guy they picking which leads me to believe it's not entirely set in stone.

It’s a TV show too, so there could be direction to take all the selection time so previous picks can be interviewed and panel discussion can occur.  

[AC Readership]

14 minutes ago, NUCKER67 said:

to CBJ - #9 and Schmidt

to VAN - #24 and 2022 1st

 

Draft Ceulemans, or even Raty

 

2022 Draft is supposed to be real good

 

CBJ likes this because they get a replacement for Jones and get two picks in the Top 10

 

VAN gets a good prospect and a great investment for next year's Draft

 

I'd do that trade in a heartbeat, don't know if Columbus does. Get a decent prospect in the system.

 

Trade Miller at the trade deadline for a 1st plus.

 

3 1sts in 2022, would be a defining moment for the future of the Canucks going forward.

[DeNiro]

1 minute ago, AC Readership said:

 

I'd do that trade in a heartbeat, don't know if Columbus does. Get a decent prospect in the system.

 

Trade Miller at the trade deadline for a 1st plus.

 

3 1sts in 2022, would be a defining moment for the future of the Canucks going forward.

Are we rebuilding now?

 

That trade makes absolutely no sense unless we’re rebuilding. ( hint: We’re not)

[Bertuzzipunch]

7 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

Are we rebuilding now?

 

That trade makes absolutely no sense unless we’re rebuilding. ( hint: We’re not)

Maybe we should?

[AC Readership]

3 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

Are we rebuilding now?

 

That trade makes absolutely no sense unless we’re rebuilding. ( hint: We’re not)

 

Just going by what GMJB said by saying he needs two more years, I'd say that's rebuilding.

 

Being a realist I don't see the Canucks making the playoffs next season and quite possibly 22/23. Not with the current D core.

[DeNiro]

Just now, Bertuzzipunch said:

Maybe we should?

And waste 5 years of Petey and Hughes in their prime?

 

No thanks.  All that does is create a bunch of Eichels who are unhappy and wanna leave.

[DeNiro]

Just now, AC Readership said:

 

Just going by what GMJB said by saying he needs two more years, I'd say that's rebuilding.

 

Being a realist I don't see the Canucks making the playoffs next season and quite possibly 22/23. Not with the current D core.

Being two years away from contending doesn’t mean you’re rebuilding, that’s actually the opposite.

 

Also a 2022 draft pick wouldn’t likely be ready for at least 4 years (if you even get an NHLer)

 

We won’t be selling players off for picks. We’ll likely be doing the opposite.

[Bertuzzipunch]

2 minutes ago, DeNiro said:

And waste 5 years of Petey and Hughes in their prime?

 

No thanks.  All that does is create a bunch of Eichels who are unhappy and wanna leave.

Well if these 1st rounders take 5 years then no but more realistically they should be ready in 2. Seems like were wasting miller and horvats prime years atm